A utilização de técnicas integradas de análise de proveniência sedimentar, incluindo a petrografia quantitativa utilizando o método Gazzi-Dickinson, a análise convencional de minerais pesados, a análise da composição química de granadas (análise varietal) e a geocronologia U-Pb (LAM-ICPMS-MC) em zircão, permitiram a identificação das áreas-fonte e o padrão de suprimento sedimentar dos arenitos de água profunda maastrichtianos que constituem os reservatórios do Campo de Jubarte, Bacia de Campos. Os arenitos são pobremente selecionados, com grãos sub-angulares a angulares, denotando rápido transporte. Apresentam composição original rica em feldspatos (arcósios sensu Folk, 1968) e pobre em fragmentos líticos de textura fina, proveniente de terrenos soerguidos de embasamento (sensu Dickinson, 1985). As assembléias de minerais pesados indicam proveniência a partir de rochas metamórficas de alto e médio grau, derivadas de metapelitos aluminosos metamorfisados em altas temperaturas e pressões baixas a médias, de granitos e subordinadamente de rochas máficas (metabasitos), pertencentes ao Domínio Tectônico Cabo Frio e ao terreno Oriental (domínio Costeiro) do orógeno Ribeira.A direção principal de suprimento sedimentar foi de sudoeste para nordeste, interpretada com base na identificação dos terrenos-fonte com abundante cianita no Domínio Tectônico Cabo Frio. Foi descartado o suprimento de sedimentos provenientes de noroeste, coincidente com a direção estrutural da faixa cataclasada de Colatina. As seqüências de quarta e quinta ordem analisadas não mostram variação na composição essencial, embora apresentem uma variação discreta na razão apatita:turmalina, que por isto apresenta potencial para ser utilizada como correlação entre os corpos de arenito dentro do campo. O índice ZTR baixo, combinado com a ausência de fragmentos metassedimentares e minerais pesados de baixo grau sugerem que ao final do Cretáceo os processos erosivos já haviam removido completamente as rochas supracrustais de baixo grau, expondo os terrenos plutônicos infracrustais. A composição quartzo-feldspática resultante favoreceu a qualidade dos reservatórios. A análise integrada dos dados sugere uma área-fonte tectonicamente ativa, relativamente próxima da bacia, submetida a um soerguimento rápido que permitiu a erosão de grandes volumes de sedimentos sob um regime de intemperismolimitado. Assim que erodidos das rochas-fonte os sedimentos foram transportados desde curtos rios de montanha e/ou leques aluviais rapidamente para águas profundas. A variação de alta freqüência da razão apatita:turmalina indica derivação direta dos arenitos do Campo de Jubarte a partir de um sistema aluvial relativamente próximo. / The application of integrated techniques of provenance analysis, including quantitative petrography using the Gazzi-Dickinson point-counting method, conventional heavy mineral analysis, garnet mineral chemistry and U-Pb zircon geochronology, allowed the identification of source-rocks and the sedimentary supply pattern for the Maastrichtian deep-water reservoir sandstones of the Jubarte Field, Campos Basin. The sandstones are poorly-sorted with angular to sub-angular grains denoting fast transportation. They present a detrital composition rich in feldspars (arkoses sensu Folk, 1968) and poor in finely-crystalline lithic fragments, with provenance from continental blocks of uplifted basement (sensu Dickinson, 1985). The heavy mineral assemblages indicate provenance from high-grade metamorphic rocks, derived from aluminous metapelites metamorphosed at high temperatures and low to medium pressures, from granites and from subordinate mafic rocks (metabasites), belonging to the Cabo Frio Tectonic Domain and the Oriental (Costeiro) terrain of the Ribeira orogen. The main sedimentary supply route during late Cretaceous was from southwest to northeast, indicated mainly by the presence of kyanite in the Cabo Frio Domain source-rocks. A possible dispersal pattern from northwest to southeast, coinciding with the Colatina shear zone, can be discarded. The fourth and fifth-order depositional sequences analyzed show no variation in major composition through time, although displaying a discrete variation of the apatite:tourmaline ratio, which thus present potential to be used as a parameter for sandstone correlation within the field. A low ZTR index coupled to the absence of low-grade heavy minerals and meta-sedimentary rock fragments suggest that at late Cretaceous the erosive processes had already removed the supracrustal, low-grade meta-sedimentary rocks, exposing the infracrustal plutonic terrains. The resulting quartz-feldspathic composition favored the quality of the reservoirs. The integrated analysis of compositional data suggests a tectonically-active source-area located close to the basin, where rapid tectonic uplift produced a large amount of sediments under a weathering-limited regime of erosion. Soon after being eroded from the bedrocks, these sediments were transported from short mountain rivers and/or by alluvial fans, directly to deep-water. The high-frequency variation inapatite:tourmaline ratio support direct derivation of Jubarte sandstones from a relatively proximal alluvial system.

A utilização de técnicas integradas de análise de proveniência sedimentar, incluindo a petrografia quantitativa utilizando o método Gazzi-Dickinson, a análise convencional de minerais pesados, a análise da composição química de granadas (análise varietal) e a geocronologia U-Pb (LAM-ICPMS-MC) em zircão, permitiram a identificação das áreas-fonte e o padrão de suprimento sedimentar dos arenitos de água profunda maastrichtianos que constituem os reservatórios do Campo de Jubarte, Bacia de Campos. Os arenitos são pobremente selecionados, com grãos sub-angulares a angulares, denotando rápido transporte. Apresentam composição original rica em feldspatos (arcósios sensu Folk, 1968) e pobre em fragmentos líticos de textura fina, proveniente de terrenos soerguidos de embasamento (sensu Dickinson, 1985). As assembléias de minerais pesados indicam proveniência a partir de rochas metamórficas de alto e médio grau, derivadas de metapelitos aluminosos metamorfisados em altas temperaturas e pressões baixas a médias, de granitos e subordinadamente de rochas máficas (metabasitos), pertencentes ao Domínio Tectônico Cabo Frio e ao terreno Oriental (domínio Costeiro) do orógeno Ribeira.A direção principal de suprimento sedimentar foi de sudoeste para nordeste, interpretada com base na identificação dos terrenos-fonte com abundante cianita no Domínio Tectônico Cabo Frio. Foi descartado o suprimento de sedimentos provenientes de noroeste, coincidente com a direção estrutural da faixa cataclasada de Colatina. As seqüências de quarta e quinta ordem analisadas não mostram variação na composição essencial, embora apresentem uma variação discreta na razão apatita:turmalina, que por isto apresenta potencial para ser utilizada como correlação entre os corpos de arenito dentro do campo. O índice ZTR baixo, combinado com a ausência de fragmentos metassedimentares e minerais pesados de baixo grau sugerem que ao final do Cretáceo os processos erosivos já haviam removido completamente as rochas supracrustais de baixo grau, expondo os terrenos plutônicos infracrustais. A composição quartzo-feldspática resultante favoreceu a qualidade dos reservatórios. A análise integrada dos dados sugere uma área-fonte tectonicamente ativa, relativamente próxima da bacia, submetida a um soerguimento rápido que permitiu a erosão de grandes volumes de sedimentos sob um regime de intemperismolimitado. Assim que erodidos das rochas-fonte os sedimentos foram transportados desde curtos rios de montanha e/ou leques aluviais rapidamente para águas profundas. A variação de alta freqüência da razão apatita:turmalina indica derivação direta dos arenitos do Campo de Jubarte a partir de um sistema aluvial relativamente próximo. / The application of integrated techniques of provenance analysis, including quantitative petrography using the Gazzi-Dickinson point-counting method, conventional heavy mineral analysis, garnet mineral chemistry and U-Pb zircon geochronology, allowed the identification of source-rocks and the sedimentary supply pattern for the Maastrichtian deep-water reservoir sandstones of the Jubarte Field, Campos Basin. The sandstones are poorly-sorted with angular to sub-angular grains denoting fast transportation. They present a detrital composition rich in feldspars (arkoses sensu Folk, 1968) and poor in finely-crystalline lithic fragments, with provenance from continental blocks of uplifted basement (sensu Dickinson, 1985). The heavy mineral assemblages indicate provenance from high-grade metamorphic rocks, derived from aluminous metapelites metamorphosed at high temperatures and low to medium pressures, from granites and from subordinate mafic rocks (metabasites), belonging to the Cabo Frio Tectonic Domain and the Oriental (Costeiro) terrain of the Ribeira orogen. The main sedimentary supply route during late Cretaceous was from southwest to northeast, indicated mainly by the presence of kyanite in the Cabo Frio Domain source-rocks. A possible dispersal pattern from northwest to southeast, coinciding with the Colatina shear zone, can be discarded. The fourth and fifth-order depositional sequences analyzed show no variation in major composition through time, although displaying a discrete variation of the apatite:tourmaline ratio, which thus present potential to be used as a parameter for sandstone correlation within the field. A low ZTR index coupled to the absence of low-grade heavy minerals and meta-sedimentary rock fragments suggest that at late Cretaceous the erosive processes had already removed the supracrustal, low-grade meta-sedimentary rocks, exposing the infracrustal plutonic terrains. The resulting quartz-feldspathic composition favored the quality of the reservoirs. The integrated analysis of compositional data suggests a tectonically-active source-area located close to the basin, where rapid tectonic uplift produced a large amount of sediments under a weathering-limited regime of erosion. Soon after being eroded from the bedrocks, these sediments were transported from short mountain rivers and/or by alluvial fans, directly to deep-water. The high-frequency variation inapatite:tourmaline ratio support direct derivation of Jubarte sandstones from a relatively proximal alluvial system.

A distributed approach can improve functionality of H/WQ (Hydrology and Water Quality) modeling by facilitating a way to explicitly incorporate spatial characteristics of a watershed into the model. The time-area approach, with its intuitive and inherently distributed concept, provides a simple method to simulate runoff mechanisms. This study developed a distributed model based on the time-area approach with the goal of improved utility and efficiency in H/WQ modeling. Uncertainty is always introduced into watershed modeling because of imperfect knowledge and scale dependant spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability. Uncertainty analysis can provide a modeler, policy maker, and stakeholder with reliability information, better understanding, and better communication about the modeling results. This study quantified uncertainty of the model parameter and output through uncertainty analysis in order to assess risk in watershed management. The main goal of this study was to develop a hydrology and sediment transport model capable of routing overland flow using a time-area concept and providing reliability of the modeling results in a probabilistic manner through uncertainty analysis. The HYSTAR (HYdrology and Sediment transport simulation using Time-ARea method) model incorporates a modified Curve Number (CN) method and the newly devised time-area routing method to estimate runoff. HYSTAR is capable of simulating direct runoff, base flow, soil moisture, and sediment load in a distributed manner and in an hourly time step. In the model, the modified CN and a continuity equation are used to calculate infiltration of the routed runoff as well as rainfall on every overland cell. The effective direct runoff volume is distributed over downstream areas using the newly developed routing method. A direct runoff hydrograph is constructed directly through the discrete convolution of the time-area histogram and the effective direct runoff volume map without employing a unit hydrograph. In addition, sediment transport is simulated using the routing method and the sediment transport capacity approach without using a delivery ratio. The sensitivity analysis found that the CN and root zone depth were the most critical parameters for runoff simulation with HYSTAR. The model provided acceptable performance in predicting runoff and sediment load of a subwatershed of the Owl Run Watershed (ORD) with the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient and coefficient of determination greater than 0.5. However, it failed to reproduce runoff for a subwatershed of Polecat Creek Watershed (PCA), where data show that runoff is not immediately responsive to rainfall. Uncertainty analysis revealed that the confidence intervals of the simulated monthly runoff and sediment load corresponded to 9.7 % and 10.2 % of their averages, respectively, at a significance level of 0.05. In addition, the average ranges of variation created by the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and National Land Cover Data (NLCD) errors in the simulated monthly runoff and sediment load were equivalent to 7.5 % and 15.9 % of the average of their calibrated values, respectively. Based on the uncertainty analysis results, the Margin of Safety (MOS) of Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) were explicitly quantified as corresponding to 7.0 % and 21.3 % of the average of the simulated runoff and sediment load for ORD at significance level of 0.05. In conclusion, the HYSTAR model provided a new way to explicitly simulate runoff and sediment load of a watershed in a distributed manner. The approach developed here retains the simplicity of a unit hydrograph approach without employing numerical methods. Uncertainty analysis found that parameter uncertainty had greater impact on the model output than did expected Geographic Information System (GIS) data errors. In addition, the impact of the topographic data error on the model output was greater than was that of the land cover data error. Finally, this study provided a proof that a 5 to 10 % MOS that many TMDL studies consider underestimates modeling uncertainty. / Ph. D.

Seit der Einführung der Pollenanalyse für Rekonstruktionen vergangener Vegetationsbedeckung befassen sich Wissenschaftler mit dem Einfluss von unterschiedlichen Pollenproduktionen der verschiedenen Arten sowie der Fragestellung, wie welches Gebiet in den Pollendaten widergespiegelt und interpretiert werden kann. Ziel dieser Arbeit war es den Zusammenhang zwischen Pollen und Vegetation weiter zu untersuchen. Dazu wurden Pollendaten von Oberflächenproben aus Brandenburger Seesedimenten sowie Pollenakkumulationsraten (PAR) von bleidatierten Sedimentkurzkernen mit Vegetationsdaten aus Waldinventurdaten und Biotopkartierungen verglichen. Zu den wichtigen Ergebnissen der vorliegenden Arbeit gehören die Berechnungen von relativen und absoluten Pollenproduktionsraten (PPE und aPPE). Während die PPEs die verhältnismäßige Pollenproduktion der Arten zu einem Referenztaxon beschreiben, ist unter den aPPEs die Pollenproduktion pro Vegetationseinheit, in diesem Fall pro m³ (Biomasse), zu verstehen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen gleich hohe PPE-Werte für Fagus und Pinus und bestätigen im Allgemeinen die PPE-Werte aus Studien, die für andere Regionen Europas erhoben wurden. Die berechneten aPPE-Werte unterscheiden sich dagegen deutlich von den aPPE-Werten in Finnland, wo die aPPE für Pinus um ein zehnfaches geringer ist als in Brandenburg. Dieser Unterschied lässt sich möglicherweise mit einer höheren Nettoprimärproduktion der gleichen Biomasse in Zentraleuropa erklären. Darüber hinaus wurde der Einfluss von Blühalter und Waldstruktur auf PPE Berechnungen evaluiert. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Berücksichtigung beider Faktoren den größten Einfluss auf die Baumarten hat, die relativ spät den Kronenbereich bzw. ihr Blühalter erreichen, wie z.B. Fagus und Carpinus. Der geringste Einfluss dieser Faktoren zeigt sich für Arten, die bereits nach wenigen Jahren mit der Pollenproduktion beginnen, wie z.B. Betula und Alnus. Für die Berechnung von PPEs und aPPEs muss ein Gebiet um den See (oder das Moor) ermittelt werden, in dem die Pollendaten mit der Vegetation verglichen werden können. Dieses Gebiet für die Berechnung von PPEs wird als „relevant source area of pollen“ (RSAP) bezeichnet. Die RSAP ist definiert als das Gebiet, in dem Pollenprozentdaten und Vegetationsprozentdaten den stärksten Zusammenhang zueinander aufweisen und es zu keiner besseren Korrelation der beiden Variablen in einer weiteren Distanz kommt. Die hier ermittelte RSAP für Brandenburg liegt bei sieben Kilometern und ist damit im Vergleich zu den meisten vorherigen Studien relativ groß. Diese relativ große RSAP lässt sich durch die Quartäre Landschaftsstruktur in Brandenburg erklären, welche durch großräumige Bestände einer Art oder Artenzusammensetzung charakterisiert ist. Des Weiteren zeigen die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit erstmals, dass PAR für die einzelnen Hauptbaumarten in einem linearen Zusammenhang mit der seeumgebenen Biomasse stehen. Im Gegensatz zu der RSAP ist das Gebiet, welches am stärksten die Variationen der PAR erklärt, relativ klein und erstreckt sich von wenigen Metern bis maximal 2,5 Kilometer vom Seeufer. Die Größe dieses Gebiets variiert zwischen den Arten, was mit der Verbreitung des Pollens und der Abundanz der einzelnen Arten erklärt werden kann. Die Beobachtung, dass der Großteil des Pollens von der nahen Vegetation kommt, bestätigt den Einfluss einer „trunk space“-Komponente eines früheren konzeptuellen Pollenverbreitungsmodells. Die heute genutzten mathematischen Pollenverbreitungsmodelle berücksichtigen diese Komponente jedoch nicht. Nach den Erkenntnissen dieser Studie würde die Berücksichtigung dieser Komponente jedoch zu einer Verbesserung der angewandten Pollenverbreitungsmodelle führen. Die oben genannten Datensätze wurden darüber hinaus für Vergleiche von verschiedenen Pollendiversitätsindexen mit Aspekten der Diversität der Landschaft genutzt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Diversität der Pollen zu einem großen Teil mit der Diversität der Landschaft innerhalb eines Kilometers um den See herum erklärt werden kann. Während die nahe Vegetation hauptsächlich die Diversität erklärt, welche sich aus der Anzahl der Arten und deren Abundanz zusammensetzt, ist die „Palynological richness“ von einem größeren Gebiet beeinflusst (sieben Kilometer). Die Gleichverteilung von Pollenkörnen kann somit durch das Verhältnis zwischen der Diversität der Pollen und der „Palynological richness“ beschrieben werden, in dem ein größerer Wert eine größere Gleichverteilung der Arten beschreibt und umgekehrt. Die Ergebnisse dieser Doktorarbeit zeigen, dass die Pollendaten in Abhängigkeit zur Fragestellung ein unterschiedlich großes Einzugsgebiet widerspiegeln. Ein größeres Einzugsgebiet der Pollen wird durch die Komposition der Pollenprozentdaten sowie der Anzahl der Pollentypen beschrieben. Die absolute Abundanz sowie die Diversität der ufernahen Vegetation kann dagegen durch PARs und die Diversität der Pollen interpretiert werden.

Water quality management for agricultural production is a complicated and interesting problem. Hydrological and economic factors must be considered when designing strategies to reduce nutrient runoff from agricultural activities. This dissertation is composed of three chapters that investigate cost-effective ways to mitigate water pollution from agricultural nonpoint pollution sources and explore farmers' incentives when participating in water quality trading programs. Chapter 1 investigates landscape targeting of best management practices (BMPs) based on topographic index (TI) to determine how targeting would affect costs of meeting nitrogen (N) loading goals for Mahantango watershed, Pennsylvania. We use the results from two climate models and the mean of the ensemble of seven climate models to estimate expected climate changes and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool-Variable Source Area (SWAT-VSA) model to predict crop yields and N export. Costs of targeting and uniform placement of BMPs across the entire study area (4.23 km2) are compared under historical and future climate scenarios. We find that with a goal of reducing N loadings by 25%, spatial targeting methods could reduce costs by an average of 30% compared with uniform BMP placement under three historical climate scenarios. Cost savings from targeting are 38% under three future climate scenarios. Chapter 2 scales up the study area to the Susquehanna watershed (71,000 km2). We examine the effects of targeting the required reductions in N runoff within counties, across counties, and both within and across counties for the Susquehanna watershed. We set the required N reduction to 35%. Using the uniform strategy to meet the required N reduction as the baseline, results show that costs of achieving a regional 35% N reduction goal can be reduced by 13%, 31% and 36% with cross-county targeting, within-county targeting and within and across county targeting, respectively. Results from Chapters 1 and 2 suggest that cost effectiveness of government subsidy programs for water quality improvement in agriculture can be increased by targeting them to areas with lower N abatement costs. In addition, targeting benefits are likely to be even larger under climate change. Chapter 3 investigates the landowner's nutrient credit trading behavior when facing the price uncertainty given the credits are allowed to be banked for future use. A two-step decision model is used in this study. For the first step, we determine the landowner's application level of a BMP on working land in the initial time period. The nutrient credits awarded to the landowner depend on the nutrient reduction level at the edge of field generated by the BMP application. For the second step, we use an intertemporal model to examine the landowner's credit trading behavior with stochastic price fluctuations over time and with transaction costs. The theoretical framework is applied with a numerical simulation incorporated with a hydro-economic model and dynamic programming. Nutrient Management (NM) is selected as the BMP on working land to generate N credits. We find that gains to the landowner from credit banking increase with higher price volatility and with higher price drift, but that gains are larger with price volatility. However, for a landowner holding a small amount of nutrient credits, the gains from credit banking are small due to transaction costs. / Doctor of Philosophy / Two considerations are critical for efforts to mitigate nutrient runoff from nonpoint sources: cost effectiveness of strategies to reduce nutrient runoff and landowners' incentives to participate in these programs. This dissertation is composed of three manuscripts, aiming to evaluate the cost effectiveness of government subsidy programs for water quality management in agriculture and investigate the landowner's incentives to participate in water quality trading programs for the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Chapter 1 investigates gains from targeting Best Management Practices (BMPs) under current and future climate conditions based on the soil characteristics relative to uniform BMP application for a small experimental watershed (4.23km2). Chapter 2 scales up the study area to a 71,000 km2 watershed and treats each county within the watershed as a representative farm to explore economic gains from targeting within county and across county based on counties' physical conditions and agricultural patterns. Both Chapters show that cost-effectiveness of government subsidy programs can be improved by spatial targeting BMPs to areas with lower abatement costs. Gains from targeting increase under climate change. In Chapter 3 we shows how a landowner's revenues from nutrient credit selling will be affected if the credits are allowed to be banked for future use when she faces price uncertainty. We find that gains to the landowner from credit banking increase more with higher price volatility than with higher price drift. Gains from banking are largely reduced by transaction costs associated with trading.

Present days are characterized by raising awareness of natural hazards, especially the risk of flood events. Extreme floods are connected with large - scale material damage and also endanger human lives. That's why the issue of flood formation and its possibility of forecasting has became disccused topic these days. Research of passed floods provides principles of effective flood protection in specific area. The main aim of this thesis is to analyse flood events that passed in the uper Opava river basin, concretely the source area containing the Černá, Střední and Bílá Opava river basins. This analysis refers about the flood frequency, different seasonal regime of floods occurence and looks for the relationship between atmospheric conditions and origin of flood events in the period of 1963 to 1997. Part of this thesis also summarizes main types of floods raised in the source area and compares different flood threat of the Černá, Střední and Bílá Opava rivers. There is also mentioned some basic differences of drainage formation, natural conditions and rainfall distribution in specific catchment area.