Le cancer du poumon chez la femme était une maladie rare au début du XXème siècle. Son incidence a fortement augmenté durant ces vingt dernières années dans les pays développés et particulièrement en France du fait de l'augmentation de la consommation de cigarettes dans la population féminine. L'étude des risques de cancer du poumon liés à la consommation de cigarettes des femmes a soulevé la question d'une éventuelle plus grande susceptibilité des femmes vis-à-vis du tabac dans la survenue du cancer du poumon par rapport aux hommes. Les résultats des études épidémiologiques sur le sujet sont divergents et l'hypothèse selon laquelle les hormones joueraient un rôle dans cette plus grande susceptibilité des femmes a été proposée pour expliquer ces différences. Objectifs : Les objectifs de cette thèse sont de donner des estimations récentes du risque de cancer du poumon chez la femme associé à la consommation de cigarettes en France, de comparer le risque de cancer du poumon chez les femmes et chez les hommes et d'étudier le rôle des hormones dans le risque de cancer du poumon.Matériel et méthodes : L'étude de la consommation de cigarettes chez les femmes et la comparaison des risques de cancer du poumon associé à cette consommation a été réalisée à partir des données de l'étude ICARE. Les cas de cancer du poumon ont été identifiés dans 10 départements incluant un registre général de cancer. Au total, 2276 cas de cancer du poumon chez les hommes et 2780 témoins ont été inclus ainsi que 650 cas de cancers du poumon féminins et 775 témoins. Les témoins étaient issus de la population générale, avec une distribution âge et sexe conforme à celle des cas et une répartition par statut socioéconomique conforme à celle des départements dont sont issus les cas. L'analyse du rôle des hormones et des facteurs reproductifs sur le risque du cancer du poumon a été menée par une analyse poolée, réunissant 9 études internationales. Cette étude a été réalisée dans le cadre du consortium ILCCO. Au total, 4547 cas et 4176 témoins ont été inclus dans l'analyse.Résultats : Notre étude a montré que le risque de cancer du poumon associé à la consommation de cigarettes est 8 fois plus élevé chez les femmes fumeuses par rapport aux non fumeuses en France. La quantité moyenne fumée, la durée totale de consommation et le délai depuis l'arrêt sont les 3 principales caractéristiques de consommation qui modulent le risque de cancer du poumon. La fraction de risque attribuable à la consommation de cigarettes est estimée à 55% [47 %-63 %]. La comparaison du risque de cancer du poumon entre les hommes et les femmes est très influencée par la présence des non fumeurs. . Bien que nous n'ayons pas trouvé de différence de risque de cancer du poumon entre les hommes et les femmes fumeurs lorsque l'on considère tous les types histologiques réunis, nous avons constaté que les femmes relativement aux hommes étaient plus à risque de cancer à petites cellules et de cancer épidermoïde, qui sont les types histologiques les plus liés à la consommation de cigarettes. Concernant l'étude sur le rôle des hormones dans la survenue de cancer du poumon, nos résultats montrent que plus l'âge à la ménopause est tardif et plus la durée des cycles menstruels est longue, moins le risque de cancer du poumon est important. Nous avons également montré que l'ovariectomie était associée positivement avec le risque de cancer du poumon. Conclusion : Nos résultats semblent indiquer que les femmes fumeuses sont peut-être plus à risque de développer un carcinome à petites cellules ou un cancer épidermoïde par rapport aux hommes fumeurs. L'étude sur les facteurs hormonaux a montré une association négative avec l'exposition prolongée aux hormones, qui n'est pas très cohérente avec un risque de cancer du poumon associé au tabac plus important chez les femmes que chez les hommes.

Penalized methods are becoming more and more popular in statistical research. This dissertation research covers two major aspects of applications of penalized methods: variable selection and nonparametric function estimation. The following two paragraphs give brief introductions to each of the two topics. Infinite variance autoregressive models are important for modeling heavy-tailed time series. We use a penalty method to conduct model selection for autoregressive models with innovations in the domain of attraction of a stable law indexed by alpha is an element of (0, 2). We show that by combining the least absolute deviation loss function and the adaptive lasso penalty, we can consistently identify the true model. At the same time, the resulting coefficient estimator converges at a rate of n^(?1/alpha) . The proposed approach gives a unified variable selection procedure for both the finite and infinite variance autoregressive models. While automatic smoothing parameter selection for nonparametric function estimation has been extensively researched for independent data, it is much less so for clustered and longitudinal data. Although leave-subject-out cross-validation (CV) has been widely used, its theoretical property is unknown and its minimization is computationally expensive, especially when there are multiple smoothing parameters. By focusing on penalized modeling methods, we show that leave-subject-out CV is optimal in that its minimization is asymptotically equivalent to the minimization of the true loss function. We develop an efficient Newton-type algorithm to compute the smoothing parameters that minimize the CV criterion. Furthermore, we derive one simplification of the leave-subject-out CV, which leads to a more efficient algorithm for selecting the smoothing parameters. We show that the simplified version of CV criteria is asymptotically equivalent to the unsimplified one and thus enjoys the same optimality property. This CV criterion also provides a completely data driven approach to select working covariance structure using generalized estimating equations in longitudinal data analysis. Our results are applicable to additive, linear varying-coefficient, nonlinear models with data from exponential families.

La gestion du trafic aérien est un système complexe. Actuellement en pleine mutation, une des problématiques essentielles à l'évolution du système est la recherche de méthodes automatiques de résolution de conflits. Nous présentons d'abord un nouveau modèle de trajectoire courbe basé sur les B-splines et permettant de définir une trajectoire à l'aide d'un nombre très limité de paramètres. À partir de cette modélisation, nous arrêtons une nouvelle formulation du problème de résolution de conflits pour obtenir un problème d'optimisation continue. Celle-ci repose sur une formulation dite semi-infinie de la contrainte de séparation entre deux avions. La manière dont nous avons défini la fonction-objectif et les fonctions contraintes nous permettent également d'en calculer les gradients. Nous utilisons trois différentes méthodes d'optimisation pour résoudre notre problème. Une méthode globale stochastique est d'abord testée : les algorithmes génétiques, couramment utilisés pour le problème de résolution de conflits. Deux méthodes d'optimisation locale sont aussi mises en œuvre, une méthode de points intérieurs et une méthode d'optimisation sans dérivées. Enfin, nous présentons des résultats numériques prometteurs montrant la fiabilité de l'optimisation locale pour le problème de résolution de conflits. Notre méthodologie, alliant une modèle de trajectoire courbe parcimonieux et une méthode d'optimisation locale appliquée à notre formulation mathématique du problème, est une option crédible pour le problème de résolution de conflits aériens.

We considered a Bayesian approach to nonlinear inverse problems in which the unknown quantity is a high dimension spatial field. The Bayesian approach contains a natural mechanism for regularization in the form of prior information, can incorporate information from heterogeneous sources and provides a quantitative assessment of uncertainty in the inverse solution. The Bayesian setting casts the inverse solution as a posterior probability distribution over the model parameters. Karhunen-Lo'eve expansion and Discrete Cosine transform were used for dimension reduction of the random spatial field. Furthermore, we used a hierarchical Bayes model to inject multiscale data in the modeling framework. In this Bayesian framework, we have shown that this inverse problem is well-posed by proving that the posterior measure is Lipschitz continuous with respect to the data in total variation norm. The need for multiple evaluations of the forward model on a high dimension spatial field (e.g. in the context of MCMC) together with the high dimensionality of the posterior, results in many computation challenges. We developed two-stage reversible jump MCMC method which has the ability to screen the bad proposals in the first inexpensive stage. Channelized spatial fields were represented by facies boundaries and variogram-based spatial fields within each facies. Using level-set based approach, the shape of the channel boundaries was updated with dynamic data using a Bayesian hierarchical model where the number of points representing the channel boundaries is assumed to be unknown. Statistical emulators on a large scale spatial field were introduced to avoid the expensive likelihood calculation, which contains the forward simulator, at each iteration of the MCMC step. To build the emulator, the original spatial field was represented by a low dimensional parameterization using Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT), then the Bayesian approach to multivariate adaptive regression spline (BMARS) was used to emulate the simulator. Various numerical results were presented by analyzing simulated as well as real data.

Διάφορες κλιματολογικές, υδρολογικές και περιβαλλοντικές μελέτες απαιτούν ακριβή γνώση της χωρικής κατανομής των σταθερών ισοτόπων του υδρογόνου και του οξυγόνου στον υετό. Δεδομένου ότι ο αριθμός των σταθμών συλλογής δειγμάτων υετού για ισοτοπική ανάλυση είναι μικρός και όχι ομογενώς κατανεμημένος σε πλανητικό επίπεδο, η πλανητκή κατανομή των σταθερών ισοτόπων μπορεί να υπολογισθεί μέσω της δημιουργίας πλεγματικών ισοτοπικών δεδομένων, για τη δημιουργία των οποίων έχουν προταθεί διάφορες μέθοδοι. Ορισμένες χρησιμοποιούν εμπειρικές σχέσεις και γεωστατιστικές μεθόδους ώστε να ελαχιστοποιήσουν τα σφάλματα λόγω παρεμβολής. Στην εργασία αυτή γίνεται μια προσπάθεια να δημιουργηθούν βάσεις πλεγματικών δεδομένων της ισοτοπικής σύστασης του υετού με ανάλυση 10΄ × 10΄ για την περιοχή της Κεντρικής και Ανατολικής Μεσογείου. Προσδιορίζονται στατιστικά πρότυπα λαμβάνοντας υπ’ όψιν γεωγραφικές και μετεωρολογικές παραμέτρους, ως ανεξάρτητες μεταβλητές. Η αρχική μεθοδολογία χρησιμοποιεί μόνο το υψόμετρο της περιοχής και το γεωγραφικό της πλάτος ως ανεξάρτητες μεταβλητές. Επειδή η ισοτοπική σύσταση εξαρτάται και από το γεωγραφικό μήκος προστέθηκαν στα υφιστάμενα πρότυπα, εκτός των γεωγραφικών μεταβλητών και μετεωρολογικές. Προτείνεται σειρά προτύπων τα οποία περιλαμβάνουν είτε ορισμένες είτε συνδυασμό αυτών των παραμέτρων. Η αξιολόγηση των προτύπων γίνεται με εφαρμογή των μεθόδων Thin Plate Splines (TPSS) και Ordinary Kriging (ΟΚ). / Several climatic, hydrological and environmental studies require the accurate knowledge of the spatial distribution of stable isotopes in precipitation. Since the number of rain sampling stations for isotope analysis is small and not evenly distributed around the globe, the global distribution of stable isotopes can be calculated via the production of gridded isotopic data sets. Several methods have been proposed for this purpose. Some of them use empirical equations and geostatistical methods in order to minimize eventual errors due to interpolation. In this work a methodology is proposed for the development of 10΄ × 10΄ gridded isotopic data of precipitation in Central and Eastern Mediterranean. Statistical models are developed taking into account geographical and meteorological parameters as independent variables. The initial methodology takes into account only the altitude and latitude of an area. Since however the isotopic composition of precipitation depends also on longitude, the existing models have been modified by adding meteorological parameters as independent variables also. A series of models is proposed taking into account some or a combination of the above mentioned variables. The models are validated using the Thin Plate Smoothing Splines (TPSS) and the Ordinary Kriging (OK) methods.

The aim of this study is to get some approach which can help in improving the predictions of daily temperature of Umeå. Weather forecasts are available through various sources nowadays. There are various software and methods available for time series forecasting. Our aim is to investigate the daily maximum temperatures of Umeå, and compare the performance of some methods in forecasting these temperatures. Here we analyse the data of daily maximum temperatures and find the predictions for some local period using methods of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), exponential smoothing (ETS), and cubic splines.  The forecast package in R is used for this purpose and automatic forecasting methods available in the package are applied for modelling with ARIMA, ETS, and cubic splines. The thesis begins with some initial modelling on univariate time series of daily maximum temperatures. The data of daily maximum temperatures of Umeå from 2008 to 2013 are used to compare the methods using various lengths of training period. On the basis of accuracy measures we try to choose the best method. Keeping in mind the fact that there are various factors which can cause the variability in daily temperature, we try to improve the forecasts in the next part of thesis by using multivariate time series forecasting method on the time series of maximum temperatures together with some other variables. Vector auto regressive (VAR) model from the vars package in R is used to analyse the multivariate time series. Results: ARIMA is selected as the best method in comparison with ETS and cubic smoothing splines to forecast one-step-ahead daily maximum temperature of Umeå, with the training period of one year. It is observed that ARIMA also provides better forecasts of daily temperatures for the next two or three days. On the basis of this study, VAR (for multivariate time series) does not help to improve the forecasts significantly. The proposed ARIMA with one year training period is compatible with the forecasts of daily maximum temperature of Umeå obtained from Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI).

Thesis (MSc (Geography and Environmental Studies))--University of Stellenbosch, 2007. / Due to the relative scarcity of weather stations, the climate conditions of large areas are not adequately represented by a weather station. This is especially true for regions with complex topographies or low population densities. Various interpolation techniques and software packages are available with which the climate of such areas can be calculated from surrounding weather stations’ data. This study investigates the possibility of using the software package ANUSPLIN to create accurate climate maps for the Western Cape, South Africa. ANUSPLIN makes use of thin plate smoothing splines and a digital elevation model to convert point data into grid format to represent an area’s climatic conditions. This software has been used successfully throughout the world, therefore a large body of literature is available on the topic, highlighting the limitations and successes of this interpolation method. Various factors have an effect on a region’s climate, the most influential being location (distance from the poles or equator), topography (height above sea level), distance from large water bodies, and other topographical factors such as slope and aspect. Until now latitude, longitude and the elevation of a weather station have most often been used as input variables to create climate grids, but the new version of ANUSPLIN (4.3) makes provision for additional variables. This study investigates the possibility of incorporating the effect of the surrounding oceans and topography (slope and aspect) in the interpolation process in order to create climate grids with a resolution of 90m x 90m. This is done for monthly mean daily maximum and minimum temperature and the mean monthly rainfall for the study area for each month of the year. Not many projects where additional variables have been incorporated in the interpolation process using ANUSPLIN are to be found in the literature, thus further investigation into the correct transformation and the units of these variables had to be done before they could be successfully incorporated. It was found that distance to oceans influences a region’s maximum and minimum temperatures, and to a lesser extent rainfall, while aspect and slope has an influence on a region’s rainfall. In order to assess the accuracy of the interpolation process, two methods were employed, namely statistical values produced during the spline function calculations by ANUSPLIN, and the removal of a selected number of stations in order to compare the interpolated values with the actual measured values. The analysis showed that more accurate maps were obtained when additional variables were incorporated into the interpolation process. Once the best transformations and units were identified for the additional variables, climate maps were produced in order to compare them with existing climate grids available for the study area. In general the temperatures were higher than those of the existing grids. For the rainfall grids ANUSPLIN’s produced higher rainfall values throughout the study region compared to the existing grids, except for the Southwestern Cape where the rainfall values were lower on north-facing slopes and high-lying area

A presente tese tem como objetivo analisar as relações entre as variáveis educacionais e a desigualdade de renda no Brasil e suas repercussões no que se refere a mobilidade intergeracional educacional e intrageracional de renda. O objetivo específico é o de verificar como a mobilidade intergeracional educacional e intrageracional de renda se diferencia regionalmente e de que modo se distingue entre os migrantes e não migrantes. Os resultados sugerem que a desigualdade de renda e de capital humano têm uma relação positiva não linear. Nas áreas onde o indicador de desigualdade de capital humano é maior, a influência dos pais nos mais baixos estratos educacionais é grande se comparado as regiões onde a desigualdade educacional é mais baixa. De um modo geral, nas regiões e estados mais pobres, os pais menos qualificados têm maior influência sobre a trajetória educacional de seus filhos. Em paralelo na região onde os estados têm os mais altos indicadores de desigualdade educacional apresenta a menor mobilidade de renda dentre as regiões analisadas. Os pais migrantes com baixa escolaridade têm uma influência menor sobre a educação dos seus filhos que seus equivalentes nas áreas de origem. E por último, os migrantes têm uma mobilidade de renda maior que a população de suas áreas de origem o que sugere uma seletividade positiva destes. / This thesis aims to analyze the relationship between educational variables and income inequality in Brazil and its repercussion related to educational and income mobility. The specific goal is to verify how the income mobility and human capital accumulation behave considering the regional differences in Brazil and migrant and native population. The results show a non-linear and positive relationship between income and human capital inequality. In the areas where the human capital inequality is higher, parents with no schooling have more influence than in the places where educational inequality is lower. At same time, the income mobility is higher in the Center and Southeast regions e lower in Northeast. The migrant parents with low schooling have less influence over the child schooling in comparison with the equivalents in their origin region. population has higher income mobility than non-migrant.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:32:15Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2008-11-24Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T19:42:44Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 laureano_mmm_dr_jabo.pdf: 1370732 bytes, checksum: 917b233b8c336006b0fff4eae272a7b4 (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Parâmetros genéticos para o fluxo lácteo medido no dia do controle (FLDC) de primeiras lactações de vacas da raça Holandesa foram estimados utilizando modelos de dimensão finita (TDM) e modelos de regressão aleatória. Para os TDM foram analisadas 10 características por meio de modelos uni e bi e multi-características e de repetibilidade, que continham como aleatórios, o efeito genético aditivo e o efeito residual e, como efeitos fixos, o grupo de contemporâneos e as covariáveis idade da vaca ao parto. A variável número de dias em lactação foi incluída somente no modelo de repetibilidade. Para os MRA, foram considerados os efeitos aleatórios genético aditivo direto, de ambiente permanente e o residual. Foram considerados como efeitos fixos, o grupo de contemporâneos, os efeitos linear e quadrático da covariável idade da vaca ao parto e a curva média de lactação da população, modelada por meio de polinômios ortogonais de Legendre de quarta ordem. Os efeitos aleatórios genético aditivo e de ambiente permanente foram modelados por meio de regressão aleatória sobre polinômios ortogonais de Legendre e por meio de funções b-splines. Diferentes estruturas de variâncias residuais foram testadas, por meio de classes contendo 1, 7, 10, 20 e 43 variâncias residuais, para os MRA modelados por meio de polinômios de Legendre. Já, para os MRA modelados por funções b-splines, a estrutura residual foi considerada heterogênea, contendo 7 classes de variâncias. Os MRA foram comparados usando o teste de razão de verossimilhança, o critério de informação de Akaike e o critério de informação de Bayesiano de Schwarz. As estimativas de herdabilidade (h2) para os FLDC variaram de 0,23 a 0,32 nas análises unicaracterísticas, de 0,24 a 0,32 nas bi-características e de 0,28 a 0,37 nas multicaracterísticas. Os valores de h2 estimados variaram no decorrer da... / Flow milk genetic parameters to the first lactation test-day milk yields of Holstein cattle were estimated using Test-day models (TDM) and Random regression models (RRM). Ten TDM differents traits were analyzed using uni, bi and multi-trait and repeatability animal models, that included the additive genetic as random effect and the fixed effects of contemporary group, age of cow (linear and quadratic) as covariables. The days in milk (linear) variable was included only at repeatability model. To RRM were included the additive genetic, permanent environmental and residual as random effects, the fixed effects of contemporary group, age of cow as covariable (linear and quadratic effects) and a 4th-order Legendre orthogonal polynomials of days in milk, to model the mean trend. The additive genetic and permanent environmental effects were fitted by Legendre orthogonal polynomials and b-splines functions. Different structures of residual variances were used, through the variances classes containing 1, 7, 10, 20, and e 43 residual variances, to the models fitted by Legendre orthogonal polynomials. Moreover, for the RRM fitted by b-splines-functions, the residual estructure was considered heterogeneous, having 7 variance classes. The RRM were compared by Likelihood ratio test, Bayesian and Akaike´s information criteria. The heritability estimated ranged from 0.23 to 0.32 by uni-trait analyses, from 0.24 to 0.32 by bi-traits analyses and from 0.28 to 0.37 by multi-trait analyses. The h2 estimates varied during the lactation being the highest estimate at the fourth month. The estimate obtained by the repeatability model was 0.27, and a repeatability estimate of 0.66. For the MRA fitted by Legendre orthogonal polynomials, related to the residual variance, the best model the one that deemed 7 residual classes. For the additive and permanent environmental effects, the having 3th-order... (Complete abstract click electronic access below)

A presente tese tem como objetivo analisar as relações entre as variáveis educacionais e a desigualdade de renda no Brasil e suas repercussões no que se refere a mobilidade intergeracional educacional e intrageracional de renda. O objetivo específico é o de verificar como a mobilidade intergeracional educacional e intrageracional de renda se diferencia regionalmente e de que modo se distingue entre os migrantes e não migrantes. Os resultados sugerem que a desigualdade de renda e de capital humano têm uma relação positiva não linear. Nas áreas onde o indicador de desigualdade de capital humano é maior, a influência dos pais nos mais baixos estratos educacionais é grande se comparado as regiões onde a desigualdade educacional é mais baixa. De um modo geral, nas regiões e estados mais pobres, os pais menos qualificados têm maior influência sobre a trajetória educacional de seus filhos. Em paralelo na região onde os estados têm os mais altos indicadores de desigualdade educacional apresenta a menor mobilidade de renda dentre as regiões analisadas. Os pais migrantes com baixa escolaridade têm uma influência menor sobre a educação dos seus filhos que seus equivalentes nas áreas de origem. E por último, os migrantes têm uma mobilidade de renda maior que a população de suas áreas de origem o que sugere uma seletividade positiva destes. / This thesis aims to analyze the relationship between educational variables and income inequality in Brazil and its repercussion related to educational and income mobility. The specific goal is to verify how the income mobility and human capital accumulation behave considering the regional differences in Brazil and migrant and native population. The results show a non-linear and positive relationship between income and human capital inequality. In the areas where the human capital inequality is higher, parents with no schooling have more influence than in the places where educational inequality is lower. At same time, the income mobility is higher in the Center and Southeast regions e lower in Northeast. The migrant parents with low schooling have less influence over the child schooling in comparison with the equivalents in their origin region. population has higher income mobility than non-migrant.