有鑑於台灣將於2006 年全面轉換現有類比電視系統，進入數位 電視時代，此趨勢亦將帶動數位電視未來的成長與發展，但基於台灣 數位視訊服務與接收設備產品正處於起飛的階段，未來發展的不確定 性仍高，因此其市場商機與未來技術之發展就非常值得進行研究與探 討。故本研究藉由SRI 情境預測法，對台灣未來5 至10 年的有線數 位機上盒(Digital Cable STB)的功能、技術需求與市場狀況做分析預 測，並針對可能發生的情境，提出因應策略，以提供有線數位式機上 盒供應商做未來策略決策時的參考。 本研究係透過包含學界及實務界的專家群會議輔以腦力激盪的 方式循序討論出關鍵決定因素與驅動力量，並以三個不確定軸面形成 情境主軸，發展擴充成為情境內涵，再就各選定之情境(風雲年代、 市場導引、技術革命及夕陽餘暉)內容進行SWOT 及策略發展分析， 並發展出有線數位STB 供應商之市場及技術共通發展策略： 在市場發展策略方面，建議台灣數位有線STB 供應商考慮： 1.形成同業默契，避免掀起價格戰，維持合理利潤。 2.為避免分散力量，造成惡性競爭。應尋求同、異業結盟，擴大業務 規模及市場佔有率，並提高對供應商的議價力量。 3.與TV 業者結盟，推廣HDTV 市場。 4.取得主要CA 供應商授權，共同開發高成長潛力市場。 5.與MSO 業者結盟，合力推動數位視訊市場發展。 在技術發展策略方面，則建議應考量： 1.核心技術之提昇，如CA，寬頻通訊及HDTV 技術。 2.多功能STB 之開發，如DVD, Home Theater, Cable Modem, VoIP 及PVR 等。 3.與台灣半導體業者合作開發關鍵零組件(IC)以降低成本並掌握關鍵 技術。 4.Open Cable 之開發，以因應不同CA 系統之需求。 5.XDSL STB 與無線寬頻技術之研究。 / Taiwan government has formally announced to switch to digital TV program broadcasting from present analog TV program broadcasting system starting year of 2006. At present, digital video service in Taiwan is still in infant stage and with high uncertainty in future d evelopment trend. Therefore, it provides the motivation of studying the market potential and technological development of digital cable industry. This research is based on SRI scenario forecasting methodology to predict future functional, technological needs and the market status of digital cable set-top-box (STB) industry in Taiwan in the coming 5 to 10 years period. Then provide strategic directions to local digital cable STB manufacturers as the reference of strategic decision making. This research will go through a panel discussion with experts from cable industry and with professors’ involvement. To find out the key decision factors and driving forces, then select three uncertainty axes to develop the scenario content. Based on the discussion and voting result to pick up four most possible scenarios (Glory Day, Pull Enforce, Technology Revolution and Beautiful Sunset) for SWOT analysis and common strategies development from market and technology viewpoints. On the market strategies, suggest local digital cable STB manufacturers should consider: 1. Reach consensus with other digital cable STB manufacturers for pricing strategy, in order to maintain reasonable business profit and not fall into price-cutting competition. 2. Strategic alliance with other manufacturers to enlarge the business scale and strengthen the bargain power to suppliers. 3. Allied with TV manufacturers to stimulate the market demand of HDTV. 4. Authorized by major CA provider, co-develop the high potential market. 5. Allied with key MSOs to promote and accelerate digital video market growth. On the technological strategies, suggest local digital cable STB manufacturers should consider: 1. Core technologies enhancement, such as CA, broadband communication and HDTV technologies. 2. The development of multifunctional STB, such as DVD, home theater, cable modem, VoIP and PVR function built in STB. 3. Co-develop the key components (asics) with local semiconductor manufacturer to lower product cost and hold the key technology. 4. The development of open cable to meet different CA system’s requirement. 5. The research of XDSL STB and wireless broadband technology.