<p> The overall goal of this thesis is to provide a deeper understanding of the role of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models as foundations upon which empirical work is conducted. This is a very broad topic with a large existing literature. For this purpose, my dissertation focuses on applying the tools and rich structure of DSGE models to answer questions that have hitherto been studied only by using a reduced-form characterization. I have chosen to look at two specific macroeconomic questions of interest: the economic consequences of oil price shocks in Canada and the role of intangible capital (IC) in explaining cyclical dynamics of S&P500 earnings. Chapter 2 look at the economic consequences of oil price shocks in a structural vector autoregressions (VAR) framework. Chapter 3 builds on this by developing an open economy DSGE model to investigate the impact of oil price shocks on the aggregate Canadian economy and to quantify the relative contribution of U.S. and Canadian monetary policy in transmitting oil price shocks. Chapter 4 studies another interesting macroeconomic phenomenon: the excess volatility of aggregate profits. We embed intangible capital into an otherwise standard real business cycle (RBC) model to examine the role of intangible capital in driving cyclical dynamics of S&P500 earnings. A common feature of my papers is the application of Bayesian time series techniques to macroeconomic data to pursue new insights on "the impact of oil price shocks on economic activities", "the role of monetary policy in transmitting oil price shocks" in new open economic macroeconomics (NOEM) literature and "intangible capital and corporate earnings" in U.S. business cycle literature.</p> / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

This article considers three standard asset pricing models with adaptive agents and stochastic non-stationary dividends. We assume that the parameters are estimated by exponential smoothing, such that prices and returns remain random variables. This paper provides sufficient conditions for the ergodicity of the return process and checks whether the perceived law assumed by the bounded rational agents can be considered to be sound with the returns observed. (author's abstract) / Series: Report Series SFB "Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science"

The research subject of the dissertation is the analysis of the model of heterogenous agents and its application for modelling stochastic Nash and Stackelberg equilibriums, applying the Monte Carlo method. The aim of the dissertation is to identify the impact of heterogeneous agents on the formation of the economic bubble, to create and examine algorithms for special bilevel stochastic programming problems and for search of the stochastic Nash equilibrium, applying the Monte Carlo method. The thesis offers a mathematical model for identification of the beginning of the bubble. This model has been applied for the analysis of the real estate bubble in Lithuania. In cases of uncertainty, decisions are often made by several individuals whose interests do not coincide. In such situations one of the concepts of the equilibrium is the stochastic Nash equilibrium. The dissertation examines the stochastic Nash equilibrium and offers the algorithm for gradient search of this equilibrium. The algorithm for gradient search of the stochastic Nash equilibrium was examined by solving the problem of electricity market with precedent agreements. The dissertation offers the algorithm for solving the optimization problem where the objective function and constraints contain conditional value at risk and by solving the test problem the behaviour of the algorithm is investigated. The dissertation proposes the algorithm for solving the two stage stochastic linear problem, employing the method of... [to full text] / Disertacijos objektas – heterogeninių agentų modelio tyrimas ir taikymas stochastinėms Nešo ir Stakelbergo pusiausvyroms modeliuoti Monte Karlo metodu. Darbo tikslas – nustatyti heterogeninių agentų įtaką ekonominio burbulo susidarymui, sukurti ir ištirti dviejų lygių stochastinio programavimo specialių uždavinių bei stochastinės Nešo pusiausvyros paieškos Monte Karlo algoritmus. Netvarių būsenų (burbulų ir jų griūčių) identifikavimas labai svarbus ekonomikai bei finansams. Disertacijoje pateiktas burbulo pradžios identifikavimo matematinis modelis, kurį taikant buvo ištirtas Lietuvos nekilnojamojo turto burbulas. Esant neapibrėžtumui, sprendimus dažnai priima keli individai, kurių interesai nesutampa. Tokiose situacijose taikoma viena iš pusiausvyros koncepcijų, būtent, stochastinė Nešo pusiausvyra. Darbe ištirta stochastinė Nešo pusiausvyra ir pasiūlytas jos gradientinės paieškos algoritmas. Stochastinės Nešo pusiausvyros gradientinės paieškos algoritmas ištirtas sprendžiant elektros rinkos su išankstiniais sandoriais uždavinį. Optimizavimo uždavinys, kurio tikslo funkcijoje ir ribojimuose yra sąlyginės rizikos reikšmė yra dviejų lygių stochastinio programavimo uždavinys. Disertacijoje pasiūlytas tokio uždavinio sprendimo algoritmas ir testiniu uždaviniu ištirta jo elgsena. Jei stochastinis dviejų etapų tiesinis uždavinys sprendžiamas reikšmingų imčių metodu, tai gaunamas dviejų lygių stochastinio programavimo uždavinys. Disertacijoje pasiūlytas stochastinio dviejų etapų... [toliau žr. visą tekstą]

Die Struktur der Landwirtschaft hat sich in vielen westlichen Ländern grundlegend geändert. In Westdeutschland, zum Beispiel, hat die Anzahl der Betriebe deutlich abgenommen, während die durchschnittliche Betriebsgröße von 7,4 ha im Jahr 1950 auf 42,9 ha im Jahr 2013 stieg. Um diese Entwicklung zu verstehen, müssen insbesondere die begrenzten Produktionskapazitäten berücksichtigt werden, die hinsichtlich der verfügbaren landwirtschaftlichen Nutzfläche oder der ehemaligen Milchquote existieren. Solche Kapazitätsbeschränkungen erzeugen einen direkten Zusammenhang zwischen dem Wachsen und Schrumpfen von Betrieben, da die Expansionsmöglichkeiten eines einzelnen Betriebes von frei werdenden Kapazitäten anderer Betriebe abhängen. Aus diesem Grund wird hier zunächst ein dynamisch stochastisches Gleichgewichtsmodell entwickelt, das auf mikroökonomischen Entscheidungen basiert und Markteintritt/-austritt für den Fall ausgeschöpfter Produktionskapazitäten darstellt. Der Kapazitätspreis ist dabei markträumend in dem Sinne, dass die Anzahl neuer Produktionseinheiten mit den aufgegebenen übereinstimmen muss. Die Industrie konvergiert unter diesen Bedingungen gegen ein stationäres Gleichgewicht, in dem Ein- und Austritt vorkommen, die Größenverteilung jedoch unverändert bleibt. Die Anpassung an diesen Zustand wird u.a. beschleunigt, wenn die fixen Eintrittskosten sinken. Eine Version des Modells wird dann auf den westdeutschen Milchsektor angewendet, um den Einfluss einer Quote auf den Strukturwandel zu untersuchen. Verglichen mit dem Szenario freien Wettbewerbs hemmt eine nicht-handelbare Quote die Anpassungsprozesse, während eine handelbare Quote Marktaustritte fördern und zu einer höheren durchschnittlichen Produktivität führen kann. Die Phase nach einer Quotenabschaffung ist geprägt von enormen Kapazitätsausweitungen und stark fallenden Preisen, falls die fixen Eintrittskosten niedrig sind. Diese Entwicklung ist weniger stark ausgebildet für höhere Eintrittskosten. / The agricultural industry in Western countries has undergone a substantial structural change. In West Germany, for instance, the number of farms declined notably during the last decades while the average farm size increased from 7.4 ha in 1950 to 42.9 ha in 2013. A factor that needs to be considered when explaining this development is the limited sectoral production capacity, which exists in terms of agricultural land or the former milk quota regime. This limited capacity generates a direct interrelation between farm growth and farm shrinkage as a single farm''s investment option depends crucially on the possible release of production capacity by competitors. The contribution of this thesis is twofold: First, a dynamic stochastic equilibrium model is developed that accounts for microeconomic decision-making and represents an industry operating at an upper capacity limit. The capacity price is determined endogenously such that it offsets the mass of entering and exiting firms in an equilibrium. It is proven that the industry tends to a stationary equilibrium in the long-run, in which entry and exit still occur but the firm size distribution remains constant. Moreover, the adjustment speed to this steady state increases if either the discount factor or the fixed entry costs decrease. Second, the impact of a production quota on industry dynamics is assessed with regard to the former milk quota regime. After calibrating the model to the West German dairy sector, the quota constrained industry performance is compared to a quota free setup. While a non-tradable quota slows down the adjustment processes within the industry, a tradable production quota can stimulate firm turnover and lead to a higher average productivity level. If the entry costs are rather low, the transition phase after a quota removal is characterised by an enormous expansion of production capacity and a considerable output price drop. This development is less pronounced though for higher entry costs.