The aim of this paper is to test whether an investment strategy originally created by Piotroski (2000), can be refined by combining it with the price-to-earnings-anomaly. In detail, we accomplish this by implementing Piotroskis F_SCORE-model to identify and consequently separate financially weak- and strong firms. Furthermore, we create an investment portfolio based on a combination of the highest rated companies according to the F_SCORE-model, and the most undervalued companies from the price-to-earnings-anomaly, to create a joint investment strategy (M_STRAT). This is carried out during the time-period 1999-2009, while reconstructing the portfolio annually. The results of our study show that, by combining the two models, we are able to achieve a market-adjusted return of 44,1%, hence amplifying the original F_SCORE-model by 17%.

This thesis investigates the factors that are associated with annual changes in the share price of Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) listed companies. In this study, an increase in value of a share is when the share price of a company goes up by the end of the financial year as compared to the previous year. Secondary data that was sourced from McGregor BFA website was used. The data was from 2004 up to 2011. Deciding which share to buy is the biggest challenge faced by both investment companies and individuals when investing on the stock exchange. This thesis uses binary logistic regression to identify the variables that are associated with share price increase. The dependent variable was annual change in share price (ACSP) and the independent variables were assets per capital employed ratio, debt per assets ratio, debt per equity ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share, earnings yield, operating profit margin, price earnings ratio, return on assets, return on equity and return on capital employed. Different variable selection methods were used and it was established that the backward elimination method produced the best model. It was established that the probability of success of a share is higher if the shareholders are anticipating a higher return on capital employed, and high earnings/ share. It was however, noted that the share price is negatively impacted by dividend yield and earnings yield. Since the odds of an increase in share price is higher if there is a higher return on capital employed and high earning per share, investors and investment companies are encouraged to choose companies with high earnings per share and the best returns on capital employed. The final model had a classification rate of 68.3% and the validation sample produced a classification rate of 65.2% / Mathematical Sciences / M.Sc. (Statistics)

In South Africa, over-the-counter (OTC) bond options may be used in order to either hedge or speculate. However, since 2001, this market deteriorated significantly. The current research assessed the role of the local bond option market, reasons for the deterioration of the South African OTC bond option market, and how this bond option market could possibly be restored as a primary hedging instrument. The opinions of individuals operating in this market were obtained using a questionnaire. In the opinion of the respondents, wide bid–offer spreads, regulatory interferences and poor participation within this market caused market deterioration. The market could be restored as a hedging instrument if effective market integration exists, interbank trading regularly takes place, liquidity was enhanced, transparency increased and investor knowledge improved. Future research could focus on regulatory transformation, the types of derivatives used for hedging, and an assessment of appropriate continuous professional development interventions for investors. / Business Management / M. Com. (Business Management)

PhD (Economics) / Department of Economics / This is the first study to investigate the impact of working capital management on the performance (profitability and value) of South African firms listed on the Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE) before, during and after the 2008/2009 global financial crisis. Richards and Laughlin’s (1980) Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC) theory was used as the theoretical framework for analysing and linking working capital management to firm performance. In addition, the study investigates how the separate working capital management components impact the performance of firms. The study used both accounting and market based secondary data obtained from I-Net Bridge/BFA McGregor database and the JSE for 75 firms for the 10 year period, 2003 to 2012. Panel data regression models were used in the analyses. The key findings from the study indicate the following. First, the average profitability (ROA) for the sample firms decreased from 27% (before the financial crisis) to 20.2% during the crisis period and increased to 25.9% after the financial crisis. Second, the average market capitalisation (firm value) decreased from R18.9 billion before the crisis to R16.3 billion during the crisis period, and thereafter increased to a high of R24.4 billion after the crisis. Third, the average firm’s CCC was 28.4 days before the crisis and decreased to 12.5 days during the crisis period and later increased to 16.2 days after the crisis. Fourth, and interestingly, of the four working capital management variables, only accounts receivable conversion period is significantly negatively related to profitability during the financial crisis. Fifth, the three firm-specific variables (size, financial leverage, and current assets to total assets ratio) have no significant relation with profitability during the crisis period. Sixth, the external variable, change in GDP growth rate, has a significant positive relation with profitability. This suggests firms perform better when the economy is booming and otherwise during economic downturns, which is consistent with economic theory. Finally, and perhaps the most important contribution is that the study found an inverted U-shape relationship between working capital management (proxied by cash conversion cycle) and firm value before the crisis. This implies that there exists an optimal level of investment in working capital for which the sampled firms’ value is maximized. At this point, costs and benefits are balanced. Thus corporate managers should aim to keep as close to the optimal level as possible and try to avoid any deviations from it that destroy firm value. On the contrary, the results have not established any such relationship between working capital management and profitability for any of the three financial crisis periods. Based on the findings, it is recommended that firm managers should aim at keeping as close to the optimal working capital level as possible and try to avoid any deviations from it that may destroy firm value. / NRF

For many financial analysts the relationship between dividend policy and share price volatility remains inconclusive. The purpose of this study was to ascertain whether the relationship between dividend policy and share price volatility for JSE-listed firms in South Africa differs from previous, similar research done on different markets. The research study answered the research question and determined what the relationship is between dividend policy and share price volatility for a representative sample of JSE-listed firms. In addition, it met the objective of finding and evaluating the relationship between dividend policy and share price volatility for a selection of JSElisted firms, under various economic conditions. The research study spanned a 12- year period with more than 1 065 observations noted. Quantitative, secondary data was collected and descriptive statistics were used during the analysis phase. Two standard multiple regression models were used to regress dividend policy and share price volatility, with the first regression model only providing a crude test between the variables. The second regression model accounted for factors that affect both variables and was included to provide a more accurate test estimation. The relationship between the dividend payout ratio and share price volatility and the relationship between dividend yield and share price volatility were evaluated and reported on, under various different economic conditions (pre, during and post the 2008 financial crisis). The study concluded that there is a negative correlation between a firm’s dividend policy and share price volatility. It further found that a firm’s dividend payout ratio, and not the dividend yield ratio, remains the single biggest contributor in explaining the variance in share price volatility throughout the different economic phases presented by pre, during and post the 2008 global financial crisis. / Finance, Risk Management and Banking / M. Com. (Financial Management)

The objective of this study investigated the successful prediction of business failure of JSE listed companies using financial ratio analysis. During the research, financial statement data of failed and non-failed JSE listed companies during 2007-2012 financial periods were analysed, compared and interpreted. The interpretation of the trends and comparisons is of a quantitative nature, together with a qualitative genre which examines the tables, figures and equations in order to get the entire picture of the company’s performance for a five year period. The combination of literature on various failure predictor models and experience of these models resulted in the development of a modified model. The conclusion from the study indicated that financial ratio analysis successfully predicts failure and non-failure of the 16 companies that were investigated. These companies were grouped into eight delisted (failed) and eight listed (non-failed) JSE companies, which were paired in accordance to industry, fiscal period and closest asset size. The adoption of the traditional ratio analysis methods and EMS model yielded some interesting findings. The traditional ratio analysis methods (trend and comparative ratio analysis) were used with the Emerging Market Score (EMS) Model. The outcomes indicated the traditional methods are viable company failure prediction tools and the EMS model points out companies at a score of 2.60 and above as being financially stable. Between 2.60 and 1.10 the results are not very dependable because it is known that the company is in distress, yet uncertain whether the company has financially failed and below 1.10 the company has failed. It was concluded that a combination of the various prediction models enhances the accuracy of failure prediction. Therefore further research is required to assist stakeholders of South African companies to predict business failure by developing an adjusted model in a South African context. / MCom (Accountancy)--North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2015

The objective of this study investigated the successful prediction of business failure of JSE listed companies using financial ratio analysis. During the research, financial statement data of failed and non-failed JSE listed companies during 2007-2012 financial periods were analysed, compared and interpreted. The interpretation of the trends and comparisons is of a quantitative nature, together with a qualitative genre which examines the tables, figures and equations in order to get the entire picture of the company’s performance for a five year period. The combination of literature on various failure predictor models and experience of these models resulted in the development of a modified model. The conclusion from the study indicated that financial ratio analysis successfully predicts failure and non-failure of the 16 companies that were investigated. These companies were grouped into eight delisted (failed) and eight listed (non-failed) JSE companies, which were paired in accordance to industry, fiscal period and closest asset size. The adoption of the traditional ratio analysis methods and EMS model yielded some interesting findings. The traditional ratio analysis methods (trend and comparative ratio analysis) were used with the Emerging Market Score (EMS) Model. The outcomes indicated the traditional methods are viable company failure prediction tools and the EMS model points out companies at a score of 2.60 and above as being financially stable. Between 2.60 and 1.10 the results are not very dependable because it is known that the company is in distress, yet uncertain whether the company has financially failed and below 1.10 the company has failed. It was concluded that a combination of the various prediction models enhances the accuracy of failure prediction. Therefore further research is required to assist stakeholders of South African companies to predict business failure by developing an adjusted model in a South African context. / MCom (Accountancy)--North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2015

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2005. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study explores the feasibility of establishing a diversified hotel property fund (DHPF) on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. To be launched in 2005/2006, the proposed unit trust fund is made up of a diversified portfolio of hotels located throughout South Africa. Research suggests that Hotel Property Funds have traditionally been the most volatile of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) with their share value largely dependent on hotel revenue. However, investing in HPFs and REITs have numerous advantages such as their stipulated 90% dividend-payout ratio, steady stream of cash flow and zero corporate income taxes. The Property Unit Trust sector in South Africa in 2003 realised annualised rates of returns of 39%, and furthermore, the economic outlook and hotel industry sector show promising signs with economic growth rates for 2004 and 2005 reaching 4% and 5% respectively. This study thus considers whether a hotel property fund will succeed in South Africa and what returns investors can expect. By drawing on empirical and primary research and lessons learnt from international best practices this ground-breaking report identifies and analyses key performance variables of HPFs and REITs and applies them to a South African context. These variables include; capital structure, investment strategy, risk and return, Net Asset Value (NA V) and initial public offerings (IPO's). The report establishes that there is no optimal capital structure for REITs and only when the market reacts to the issuance of debt can one tell if the REIT is favourably structured or not. Concerning investment strategy, investors are in general, often lured to a diversified portfolio, however this report suggests that there is no optimal strategy for investing in REITs. In addition, over a medium to long term, REIT performance is strong, while over the short term performance is varied impacting on investor strategy. In assessing risk and return it was concluded that including REIT shares in an already diversified portfolio, the maximum expected return for each given level of risk is increased, and the level of risk for each level of expected return is reduced. Furthennore, the performance of RElTs is not necessarily detennined by size or Net Asset Value and thus small and large REITs can offer investors similar returns. Finally, initial-day returns for industry lnitial Public Offerings (lPO's) easily outperfonn REIT lPO's. Similarly to RElTs, there are numerous advantages to Hotel REITs which include, unlocking and redeployment of capital, investment spread and risk reduction and the provision of synergies between counter cyclical performing properties. However, empirical research indicates that Hotel REITs prove to be the most volatile of REIT sectors. Hotel REITs differ enonnously from their parent group in terms of their revenue & earnings which are more diverse in source and are generated from short-tenn leases. As such. Hotel REITs are also considered to be more management intensive. As with REITs there is no evidence to suggest an optimal capital structure and with the envisaged 50% debt ratio, the DHPF could be considered to be following international best practices. Several drawbacks with Hotel REITs include the lowest dividend yield among all RElT sectors, high volatility in income earnings, sensitivity to upswings and downturns in the tourism market, large capital investments and fixed operating expenses for staff and infrastructure. However despite these obstacles and in answer to the research problem, the prospects of the DHPF succeeding in South Africa are very high indeed. The REIT and Hotel REIT markets have proved successful throughout major capital markets, providing investors with a multitude of benefits. South Africa's economic and tourism climate is very favourable. The Property Unit Trust (PUT) sector has performed immensely well and investors can expect a healthy return which, as shown, is considerably higher than other investments. Finally, the fund is being spearheaded by a high calibre DHPF management team, which is key to the listing and management of the fund. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie ondersoek die moontlikheid om 'n Diverse Hotel Eiendomsfonds (DHEF) op die Johannesburgse Aandelebeurs te loods. Die huidige aanvangsfase sal in 2005/2006 wees, en sal bestaan uit 'n portfolio van verskillende hotelle wat reg oor Suid-Afrika versprei is. Die navorsing toon dat hoteleiendomsfondse tradisioneel die mees veranderlikste van die Eiendoms Beleggings Trusts (EBT) was en dat die aandeel waarde hoogs afhanklik is van die hotel se inkomste. Nieteenstaande, het investering in DHEFs en EBTs 'n verskeidenheid van voordele soos die voorgeskrewe 90% dividend uitbetalingspersentasie, 'n bestendige kontantvloei en geen korporatiewe inkomstebelasting nie. Die eiendomsbeleggingsfondse sektor in Suid-Afrika het gedurende 2003 'n jaarlikse groei van 39% getoon, en verder beloof die ekonomiese uitkyk in die hotel bedryf om tussen 4% en 5% gedurende 2004 en 2005 onderskeidelik te groei. Gegewe die inligting, is die vraag dus of 'n hoteleiendomsfonds sukses kan behaal in Suid-Afrika en watter opbrengs beleggers kan verwag. Deur na primere empiriese navorsing, sowel as lesse wat geleer is deur beste internasionale praktyke, te bestudeer, identifiseer hierdie verslag sleutel prestasie veranderlikes van EBTs en DHEFs plaas dit in konteks van Suid-Afrika. Hierdie veranderlikes sluit in: kapitaaistruktuur, beleggingsstrategie, risiko en terugkeer, Bruto Bate Waarde (Net Assest Value) (BBW) sowel as aanvanklike openbare aanbod (Initial Public Offering) (AOA). Daar is bevind dat daar geen optimale kapitaalstruktuur vir DHEFs bereken kan word nie. Verder word aangetoon dat daar slegs bepaal kan word of EBTs se struktuur voordelig is wanneer die mark reageer op nuwe skuld wat aangegaan is. Wat beleggingsstrategie betref, is beleggers oor die algemeen meer aangetrokke tot 'n diverse portefeulje van beleggings. Hierdie verslag bevind egter dat daar geen optimale strategie is om in EBTs te bele nie. Daar word verder bevind dat medium- tot langtermyn opbrengste goed vertoon, terwyl prestasie oor die korttermyn wisselvallig is wat gevolglik 'n invloed op beleggers se strategie het. In waardering van risiko en wins, is dit bepaal dat die insluiting van EBT aandele in 'n diverse portfeulje, die maksimum verwagte opbrengs vir elke vlak van risiko verhoog en dat die vlak van fisiko vir elke vlak van die verwagte opbrengs verlaag word. Verder is daar bevind dat die prestasie van EBTs nie noodwendig bepaal word deur batewaarde of -groote nie en klein EBTs kan beleggers vergelykende opbrengste bied. Eerstedag opbrengs vir industriele AOAs presteer beter as die van EBTs. Soortgelyk aan EBTs is daar verskeie voordele aan hotel EBTs wat die ontsluiting en herontplooiing van kapitaal, beleggingsverspreiding en risikoverlaging insluit. Empiriese navorsing dui aan dat hotel EBT's die mees onstabiele van die EBT sektor is. Hotel EBT's verskil wesenlik van ander EBTs in terme van opbrengs en verdienste wat meer divers is in oorsprong en gegenereer word deur korttermyn huurkontrakte. Hotel EBTs word ook gesien as meer bestuursintensief. Net soos met EBTs is daar geen bewyse dat daar 'n optimale kapitaalstruktuur bestaan nie en met die verwagte 50% skuld verhouding, volg DHEF wereldwye beste praktyk. Daar is verskeie nadele aan hotel EBTs, insluitend die laagste dividenduitkeer onder alle EBT sektore, hoe vlakke van onstabiliteit in verdienste, sensitiwiteit vir opswaai en afloop in die toerismemark, groot kapitaalbelegging en hoe vaste operasionele uitgawes op werknemers en infrastruktuur. Die gevolgtrekking is dat ten spyte van negatiewe faktore, die vooruitsig dat DHEF in Suid-Afrika sal slaag, hoog is. Die EBT en hotel EBT mark het bewys dat dit suksesvol is in talle ander groot kapitaalmarkte wat beleggers met 'n verskeidenheid van voordele kan voorsien. Suid-Afrika se ekonomiese- en toerismevooruitsig is baie positief. Die Eiendoms Eenheids Fonds (EEF) sektor het goed vertoon en beleggers kan 'n gesonde opbrengs verwag wat, soos aangedui word, aansienlik hoer is as ander beleggings. Die fonds word gedryf deur 'n hoe kaliber bestuurspan wat krities is tot die notering en die bestuur van fondse.

The research undertaken aims to contribute to the debate about market efficiency and market volatility in an Islamic context. The research relates to the Amman Stock Exchange (ASE) and covers the period 1992 to 2007. It undertakes quantitative analysis involving two key elements: first, testing for random walk and calendar anomaly effects in market returns and, second, modelling volatility in market returns. The thesis applies a series of standard econometric and statistical techniques to this issue. The key ‘novel’ contributions of this study relate to the focus on Islamic religious holiday effects and also the application of behavioural finance theoretical models to explain the findings in terms of the influence of social mood (mood misattribution) effects. These are approaches that have not been previously applied in the literature within an Islamic context. The author argues that the econometric and statistical techniques applied are ‘fit for purpose’. Standard methods are applied; however, these are applied in ‘novel’ ways in parts of the thesis. For example, moving-date calendar effects are modelled for the first time and the modelling of volatility makes use of interaction effects to explore the impact of interactions between different mood-influencing variables. The study begins by identifying that the ASE index returns do not follow a Random Walk. It then goes on to identify day-of-the-week effects. First trading day of the week effects found in relation to the first trading day that follows the Muslim holy day of Friday. Monthly calendar effects were also found. January or turn-of-the-year effects were found in the ASE similar to those found previously in some Western markets. However, the largest monthly effects were found in relation to the holy month of Ramadan. Most significantly, Ramadan was found to be the only month where the average daily returns were both statistically different from the other months in the year and also positive. This, it is argued in the thesis, is due to social mood (or mood misattribution) effects. The research looks beyond informational efficiency and develops a number of ‘novel’ contributions to research in this area in terms of both the empirical findings and the behavioural finance-related interpretation of these findings, as well as the influence of Islamic ethics in Amman’s stock market returns. The thesis also examines the relationship between seven behavioural mood-proxy variables and stock market returns. Fama (1991) argues that efficiency and volatility are unrelated. In this thesis, however, evidence is uncovered which suggests that this may not be the case. High levels of volatility were found at the start and at the end of the Ramadan holy festival; this volatility, it is argued, is related to social mood. This issue is examined further by exploring previously unstudied interactions between mood-related Ramadan effects and mood-related weather and biorhythmic effects. The results of this thesis, the author believes, provide strong evidence for the existence of Muslim religion investment decision biases associated with social mood effects (mood misattribution). It is argued that these social mood effects in the case of Jordan relate mainly to Islamic ethics and cultural issues, as they are found predominantly during the Ramadan religious holiday. Despite the existence of decision biases within the ASE, no profitable trading anomaly opportunities were identified. This may be due, in part, to Jordan having high trading transaction costs. It is possible, however, that profitable trading opportunities related to Islamic holidays may exist in countries that follow stricter religious observance. The author believes that there is an opportunity to extend this research to countries such as Bahrain.

Study project (MBA)--University of Stellenbosch, 2003. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The objective of this study is to verify the cumulative factors developed by the Graduate School of Business of the University of Stellenbosch when calculating prices per share (price) over the period 1970 to 2000, earnings per share (EPS), cash flows per share (CFS) and net asset values per share(NA V). All four are done in a time series format. This study project forms part ofa larger research project of the Graduate School of Business ofthe University of Stellenbosch (USB). The data was extracted from the database of the USB and also from companies' financial annual reports and/or directors' reports of the annual financial statements of each company included in the research for the specified periods. The aim of this study is to compare the calculated implicit cumulative factors used in practice with the specific cumulative factor calculated/used by the USB. The !NET prices were compared with the prices of the USB (after using the USB specific cumulative factors). The study also compares the NAV published by companies with the NAV obtained by the USB by dividing equity/weighted average number of shares duly adjusted by the cumulative factor. Companies with minor and major differences were observed but for the purpose of this study only the examples of companies with major differences have been indicated and properly documented. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die doel van hierdie studie is om die kumulatiewe faktore wat deur die Nagraadse Bestuurskool van die Universiteit van Stellenbosch ontwikkel is, te verifieer, wanneer pryse per aandeel (prys) oor tydperk 1970 tot 2000, verdienste per aandeel, kontantvloei per aandeel en netto batewaardes per aandeel bereken word. Al vier word in 'n tydreeksformaat gedoen. Hierdie studieprojek vorm deel van 'n groter navorsingsprojek van die Nagraadse Bestuurskool van die Universiteit van Stellenbosch (USB). Die data is van die USB databasis verkry, asook van maatskappye se finansiële jaarverslae en/of direkteure se verslae van die jaarlikse finansiële state van elke maatskappy wat in die navorsing vir die spesifieke tydperke ingesluit is. Die doelwit van hierdie studie is om die berekende implisiete kumulatiewe faktore wat in die praktyk gebruik word met die spesifieke kumulatiewe faktore wat deur die USB bereken/gebruik word, te vergelyk. Die !NET pryse is met die pryse van die USB (nadat die USB spesifieke kumulatiewe faktore gebruik is) vergelyk. Die studie vergelyk ook die netto batewaardes per aandeel wat deur die maatskappye gepubliseer is met die netto batewaardes per aandeel wat deur die USB verkry is, deur die aandeelhouersbelang/geweegde gemiddelde aantal aandele wat behoorlik aangepas is, met die kumulatiewe faktore te deel. Maatskappye met groter of kleiner verskille is waargeneem, maar vir die doel van hierdie studie is slegs die voorbeelde van maatskappye met groter verskille aangedui en behoorlik voorsien.