Stock exchanges on the African continent need accelerated development in order to attract and utilise capital inflows optimally for development of the continent. The growth of the BRICS capital markets has been notable in the past 10 years. The purpose of this research paper is to take the experiences of the BRICS stock exchanges, both positive and negative, and use them to build a model for the accelerated growth of stock exchanges on the African continent. Exploratory interviews were conducted with the representative BRICS exchanges and the information gleaned was used to construct questionnaires for selected African exchanges, the Africa 5. Inclusion into the Africa 5 was based on the McKinsey “Lions on the Move” model. Findings indicated the importance of an enabling regulatory and policy environment, which had been expected, based on the literature. Unexpected findings included the necessity for there to be courageous and visionary leadership in the capital markets, at regulatory, policy and stock exchange level. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2013. / lmgibs2014 / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / MBA / Unrestricted

Thesis submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Management in Finance & Investment in the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management Wits Business School at the University of the Witwatersrand 2017 / There are 29 formal stock exchanges on the African continent with 23 based in sub-Saharan Africa. The pace and stage of stock market development has varied among most of the countries as only four stock markets have more than 50 listed stocks; five have at least 20 listed stocks; and the remaining 14 have less than 20 stocks. The Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) stands out in Africa as by far the continent’s largest, most liquid and best regulated market and is home to some of the continent’s largest and most sophisticated companies. Cross listing refers to the listing of ordinary shares of a firm on an exchange other than the stock exchange in its registered jurisdiction. There are 24 JSE listed companies that have cross listed on other Sub-Saharan African stock exchanges. The bulk of these, (14), have cross listed on the Namibia Stock Exchange, 3 cross listed on Botswana Stock Exchange, 1 on the Nairobi Stock Exchange, 1 on the Ghanaian Stock Exchange, 3 on the Malawian Stock Exchange, 1 on the Zambian Stock Exchange and 1 on the Zimbabwean Stock Exchange. The study establishes the possible reasons and benefits of cross listing on other sub-Saharan exchanges for JSE listed companies. The study also provides insight into the possible effects, (financial as well as any others), of cross listing on other sub-Saharan African exchanges that a number of JSE listed entities have experienced. The study uses financial information collected from a public platform, (Sharedata), to compute financial ratio’s to determine the financial implications of the JSE companies cross listing on other sub-Saharan exchanges. The effects of cross listing on the JSE companies are then measured using latent growth curve modelling and a paired t test. The study concludes that there is no evidence to suggest that there are financial benefits for JSE listed companies to cross list on other sub-Saharan exchanges. The study further suggests that JSE listed companies should rather consider cross listing for qualitative reasons rather for any quantitative reasons. / MT2017

Thesis (PhD (Business Management))--University of Stellenbosch, 2006. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study investigates whether any exploitable pauems exist in a sample of ten African stock markets that could lead to abnonnal gains. Southern Africa is represented by Botswana, Namibia. Mauritius and Zimbabwe, East Africa by Kenya, West Africa by Ghana and the BRVM, and North Africa by Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. Such evidence, if it exists, provides ground for refutation of the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis (EM H) as defined by Farna (1965. 1970). The thesis is predominantly empirical, but also provides an overview of African stock markets, the theoretical framework on which the study is based and the impact of the advancement in information technology on market efficiency. The results show that the distribution of stock returns on African stock markets is not normal, and that the deviation from normality is significantly pronounced with almost all the stocks rejecting nonnality using the Kolmogorov-Smimov test at the I % level of significance. The stock price behaviour of the abovementioned stock markets is investigated by testing the random walk hypothesis using the simple serial correlation and runs tests. The investigation is done using returns calculated on a trade-to-trade basis and adjusted for interval variability by weighting each trade-to-trade return by the number of days between trades. While the first part of this analysis only includes the markets on which dividend information could be obtained, the second part includes all the ten markets with returns referring to capital gains. However, it is shown that dividend information does not have a serious impact on the results. While the majority of stocks, especially those for Mauritius and Ghana, reject the random walk hypothesis, only Namibia, Kenya and Zimbabwe, can be said to be weak form efficient. While thin trading is known to cause econometric and statistical problems in empirical tests, thin trading has been taken as given in most studies. In this thesis, the seriousness of thin trading on African stock markets and its implications for efficiency testing is empirically investigated. A comparison of the random walk test results when returns are calculated normally and when the trade-to-trade approach and its variant, the adjusted trade-la-trade approach, are used is carried out. It is found that thin trading is indeed a severe problem on African markets and that there are some differences in the random walk results due to the different methods used to calculate returns. Investigating in-sample predictability using linear models appears to be the norm in most tests of the EMH. This thesis argues that the return-generating process may not be linear and if that is the case, the nonlinear models may outperform the linear models in out-of-sample forecasting. The random walk is considered a true description of stock price behaviour only if it is not outperformed by any of the alternative models in forecasting stock prices out-of-sample. This is empirically tested using the indices data of the African stock markets in the sample. It is found that alternative models, in most instances, outperform the random walk model in out-of-sample forecasting. The random walk results are substantiated by the results on seasonal patterns and other anomalies to the efficient market hypothesis such as the finn size and price earnings (PIE) effects. Size and PIE ratios have been identified as significant predictors of stock returns in other markets. In particular, it has been suggested that small-size firm portfolios outperform large-size finn portfolios and that low PIE firm portfolios outperform high PIE firm portfolios. The size and PIE effects found in this thesis are mostly exactly the opposite of those hypothesised in the literature. The existence of seasonal patterns contradicts the statement that stock prices behave in a random manner. This phenomenon is investigated on African stock markets using indices returns. The study benchmarks the findings with those of South Africa's Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) Securities Exchange; other emerging markets, namely Brazil, Malaysia, Poland, Slovenia and Finland; and developed markets, such as the United States of America (U.S.), Australia and New Zealand. Seasonal effects are observed on some, but not all African stock markets and in most cases the patterns observed are different from those observed on stock markets elsewhere. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie delf na of daar enige ontginbare patrone in 'n proefstuk van tien Afrika aandelemarkte bestaan, wat tot abnormale winste kan lei. Suider-Afrika word deur Botswana, Namibie, Mauritius en Zimbabwe verteenwoordig; Oos-Afrika deur Kenia, Wes-Afrika deur Ghana en die BRVM, en Noord-Afrika deur Egipte, Marokko en Tunisie. Indien sodanige bewyse bestaan, sou dit as grondslag dien vir weerlegging van die prestasie van die doeltreffende mark-hipotese (EMH) soos deur Fama (1965, 1970) gedefinieer. Die tesis is oorwegend empiries, maar bied ook 'n oorsig oor Afrika-aandelemarkte, die teoretiese raamwerk waarop die studie gebaseer is en die impak van die vordering in inligtingstegnologie op markdoeltreffendheid. Dit probeer vasstel of die verspreiding van winste op aandele met die van normaliteit konformeer. Die resultate toon dat die verspreiding van winste op aandele op aandelemarkte in Afrika nie normaal is nie en dat die afwyking van normaliteit aansienlik skerp is met byna al die aandelemarkte wat normaliteit verwerp wanneer die Kolmogorov-Smirnov-toets (teen die 1 %-vlak van beduidendheid) toegepas word. Die gedrag van aandelepryse van bovermelde aandelemarkte is ondersoek deur die ewekansige steekproef-hipotese te toets deur die eenvoudige reeks korrelasie en aanvraag-toetse toe te pas. Die ondersoek is gedoen deur opbrengste te gebruik wat op 'n handel-tot-handel-grondslag bereken is en vir interval wisseling aangepas is deur iedere handel-tot-handel-opbrengs teenoor die aantal dae tussen transaksies op te weeg. Terwyl die eerste deel van die ontleding net die markte insluit waarop inligting oor dividende verkry kon word, het die tweede deel al tien markte ingesluit met opbrengste wat na kapitale winste verwys. Daar word egter bewys dat inligting oor dividende nie 'n ernstige en waardige impak op die resultate het nie. Terwyl die meerderheid aandele, veral die vir Mauritius en Ghana, die ewekansige steekproef hipotese verwerp, kan daar aanvaar word dat net die in Namibie, Kenia en Zimbabwe swak-prestasie doelmatig is. Terwyl dit bekend is dat swak handel statistiese en ekonometriese probleme in empiriese toetse meebring, is swak handel as 'n gegewe in die meeste studies aangedui. In die tesis word die erns van swak handel op aandelemarkte in Afrika en die implikasies daarvan vir doeltreffende toetsing empiries ondersoek. 'n Vergelyking van die resultate vir (ewekansige steekproewe) word getref wanneer winste normaal bereken word en wanneer die handel-tot-handel-benadering en sy variant, die aangepaste handel-tot-handelsbenadering, toegepas word. Daar is bevind dat swak handel inderdaad 'n ernstige probleem op Afrika-markte is en dat daar sommige verskille in die ewekansige steekproef-resultate is as gevolg van die verskillende metodes wat ingespan word om die winste te bereken. Die gebruik van liniere modelle om ondersoek in te stel na die voorspelbaarheid van proefstukke blyk die norm in die meeste toetse van die doeltreffende mark-hipotesis te wees. Die tesis voer aan dat die wins-genererende proses nie noodwendig linier is nie, en indien dit die geval is, kan die nie-liniere modelle die liniere modelle in die proefstuk-voorspelling oortref. Die steekproef word as 'n betroubare beskrywing van die gedrag van aandelepryse beskou, maar net indien dit nie deur enige van die alternatiewe modelle in die voorspelling van aandelepryse in die proefstuk oortref word nie. Dit is empiries getoets deur die toepassing van die indeks-data van die Afrika-aandelemarkte in die proefstuk. Die ewekansige steekproef-resultate word deur die resultate van seisoenale patrone en ander afwykings van die doeltreffende mark- hipotesis gestaaf, soos die grootte van die onderneming en die invloede van prys inkomste. Grootte en prysinkomsteverhoudings is as betekenisvolle voorspellers van aandele-winste op ander markte geidentifiseer. Daar is spesifiek aangedui dat die portfolios van klein maatskappye die van groter maatskappye oortref en dat die portfolios van lae prys inkomstemaatskappye die van hoe prysinkomste oortref. Die grootte en invloede van prysinkomste wat in die tesis bepaal is, is hoofsaaklik presies die teenoorgestelde van die waaroor in die literatuur 'n hipotese oor opgestel is. Die bestaan van seisoenale patrone weerspreek die stelling dat aandelepryse hulle op 'n lukrake wyse voordoen. Die verskynsel is op Afrika-aandelemarkte ondersoek deur indeks-opbrengste te gebruik. Hierdie studie meet die bevindinge aan die hand van Suid-Afrika se Effekte Wisselkoerse op die Johannesburgse Aandelebeurs, ander opkomende markte soos Brasilie, Maleisie, Pole, Slovenie en Finland, en ontwikkelde markte soos die van die VSA, Australie en Nieu-Seeland. Seisoenale invloede word op sommige waargeneem, maar nie op alle aandelemarkte in Afrika nie - in die meeste gevalle verskil die patrone wat waargeneem is van die op aandelemarkte elders.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2001. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The lack of easy access to consistent, timely and reliable information is perceived to be one of the major barriers to investment on the African continent and the aim of this study is to provide the Africa Centre for Investment Analysis with a systems analysis, to enable it to populate their African Capital Markets Database with sufficient data to address this issue. The study aims to provide: • Program expertise to facilitate the automation of share price data capturing into a central database at the Centre • Systems analysis expertise to develop the necessary systems to capture and report the published company financial results of all listed companies in the African stock markets (excluding South Africa's JSE) • An evaluation of the existing products that ACIA offers, and an analysis of the effectiveness of the existing product mix • Recommendations on possible future changes and additions to the product portfolio to increase ACIA's profile in the market place • An analysis of the marketing environment that ACIA operates in, with recommendations about different marketing strategies that should be considered During this study, conversion programs has been written in the Visual Basic programming language to extract and update several years worth of share price data for the following countries. • Namibia • Swaziland • Zimbabwe • Botswana • Zambia • Nigeria • Malawi • Mauritius Kenya • Ghana • Tunisia • Egypt A total of 90000+ data points were created via this conversion process. It is envisaged that the data that has been loaded into the African Capital Markets Database will become one of the best research resources on African investment opportunities, and that the results of this study will have a wide impact on the continent in terms of attracting foreign capital investments, when researchers globally start to use this information. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die gebrek aan genoegsame, akkurate en vinning bekombare inligting word gesien as een van die hoof redes waarom daar 'n gebrek aan buitelandse investering in Afrika plaasvind. Die doel van hierdie studie is om 'n ontleding te maak van die stelsel behoeftes wat bestaan by die Afrika Sentrum vir Beleggings Ontleding, en om tergelykertyd ook die sentrum se Afrika Kapitaalmark Databasis met data te populeer, sodat die gebrek aan deursigtige en akurate inligtings probleem geadreseer kan word. Die studie beoog om die volgende kennis daar te stel: • Verskaffing van rekenaar programmerings kennis om die opdatering van aandeel prys data in die databasis te outomatiseer. • Om stelselontledings kennis te verskaf om die databasis verder uit te brei sodat die gepubliseerde state van genoteerded Afrika maatskappye ook in die stelsel gestoor kan word. (Suid Afrikaanse maatskappye word uitgesluit uit die databasis, omdat daar alreeds voldoende inligting oor die Johannesburgse Aandele beurs beskikbaar is) • Die evaluering van die bestaande produkte en dienste wat deur ACIA verskaf word, tesame met 'n analise om te bepaal of die bestaande reeks produkte en dienste aan die mark behoeftes van alle moontlike geinteresseerde partye voldoen. • Aanbevelings aangaande moontlike toekomstige veranderings en toevoegings tot die bestaande produkte en dienste om ACIA se dienste meer bekend te maak in die internasionale kapitaal markte. • 'n Ontleding van die marksegment waarin ACIA kompeteer, asook aanbevelings rondom moontlike bemarkings strategieë wat oorweeg behoort te word. Gedurende hierdie studie is verskeie data omskeppings programme geskryf om 'n groot hoeveelheid data punte in die databasis te laai. Die Visual Basic programmerings taal is vir hierdie doeleindes gebruik. Aandeel prys data van die volgende lande word databasis oorgeplaas. • Namibië • Swaziland • Zimbabwe • Botswana • Zambië • Nigerië • Malawi • Mauritius • Kenya • Ghana • Tunisië • Egipte Meer as 90 000 data punte is deur middel van hierdie proses in die Oracle databasis opgedateer. Die verwagting is dat die Afrika Kapitaalmark Databasis een van die toonaangewendste bronne van Afrika markaanwysers sal word. Hierdie studie het 'n geweldige groot bydrae gelewer om die databasis van 'n moontlikheid na 'n werklikheid te omskep. Die geloof, hoop en vertroue bestaan dat hierdie studie 'n wesentlike bydrae sal maak om meer direkte buitelandse belegging na Afrika aan te trek, sodra finansieële navorsers die data uit hierdie nuwe bron begin ontgin.

Thesis (MBA) --Stellenbosch University, 2001. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Africa's stock markets are considered by many emerging market specialists to have great potential for investors. Developing models which track share/financial indices provide a means of disseminating information about market performance. With the active move towards regional stock markets, regional indices will provide an important tool for performance of the region. Stock market indices provide information to investors and portfolio managers about the performance of various markets or groups of stocks. Investors can use the movement of indices as a way of assessing market trends and opportunities for investment. As economic integration increases in Africa, it will become increasingly important to have markers of regional market performance. This study project collected weekly market capitalisation data from the markets in the various regions, which were utilised to construct regional all-share indices for the year 2000. Regional indices for three of the four regions within Africa were constructed. The three indices are the EASDEX (for East Africa), the NADEX (for North Africa) and the WADEX (for West Africa). The weekly market capitalisation data were further utilised to construct an All-Africa index. The Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) dominates the Southern African Development Community (SADC) regional market's total market capitalisation. Similarly the SAOG region dominates the total market capitalisation for Africa. The JSE contributes 59% to the total market capitalisation of Africa (January 2000). The All-Africa index moves together with the SADIX (SAOG regional index) confirming the high weighting of South Africa in the total market capitalisation of Africa. Encouraging economic growth throughout Africa and not just in Southern Africa will assist the continent as a whole to attract market capital. In the long term this should increase market growth in the other regions of Africa and enable investors to diversify into Africa. There are certainly opportunities for investors in Africa. The low correlation between Egypt and the other two North African markets allows for diversification within the North African Region. Nigeria has been the market that had the highest returns during 2000, one that outperformed many international markets. SADIX has low or negative correlation coefficients with the rest of the African individual as well as the regional market indices. Historically emerging markets are volatile and risky. The case for diversification into emerging markets originates from the high economic growth potential of emerging markets, together with low correlation with other developed markets. The development of All-Share indices, which track market performance on the African continent, will assist both potential institutional as well as individual investors. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Afrika se effektemarkte word deur baie opkomende markspesialiste beskou as potensieel gunstig vir beleggers. Deur modelle wat aandele/finansiële indekse volg te ontwikkel, word 'n middel voorsien om informasie oor markprestasie te ontleed. Met die aktiewe beweging na streeksaandelemarkte, sal streeksindekse 'n belangrike maatstaf vir die prestasie van 'n area voorsien. Aandelemarkindekse voorsien informasie aan beleggers en portefeulje bestuurders oor die prestasie van verskeie markte of aandelegroepe. Beleggers kan die beweging van die indekse gebruik om marktendense te ontleed asook om geleenthede vir investering te identifiseer. Dit sal belangriker raak om maatstawwe van streeksmarkprestasie te hê soos ekonomiese integrasie in Afrika toeneem. Hierdie studieprojek het weeklikse markkapitalisasie data van die markte in die verskeie areas versamel, wat gebruik is om 'n streeksindeks van alle aandele vir die jaar 2000 saam te stel. Streeksindekse vir drie van die vier streke binne Afrika is saamgestel. Die drie indekse is die EASDEX (Oos Afrika), die NADEX (Noord Afrika) en die WADEX (Wes Afrika). Die weeklikse markkapitalisasie data is verder aangewend om 'n Alle- Afrika indeks saam te stel. Die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs (JEB) domineer die totale markkapitalisasie van die Suidelike Afrika Ontwikkelingsgemeenskap (SAOG) se streeksmark. Insgelyk domineer die SAOG streek die totale markkapitalisasie vir Afrika. Die JES dra 59% by tot die totale markkapitalisasie van Afrika (Januarie 2000). Die Alle-Afrika indeks beweeg saam met die SADIX (SAOG streeksindeks) wat die gewigtigheid van Suid Afrika in die totale markkapitalisasie van Afrika bevestig. Deur ekonomiese groei regdeur Afrika en nie bloot in Suider Afrika nie, aan te spoor, sal dit die vasteland as 'n geheel steun om markkapitaal aan te trek. Op die lange duur behoort dit groei te bevorder in die ander streke van Afrika en beleggers in staat te stel om binne Afrika te diversifiseer. Daar is ongetwyfeld geleenthede vir beleggers in Afrika. Die lae onderlinge afhanklikheid tussen Egipte en die ander twee Noord Afrika markte laat diversifikasie binne die Noord Afrika streek toe. Nigerië is die mark met die hoogste opbrengste tydens 2000 en het selfs baie internasionale markte oortref. SADIX het lae of negatiewe korrelasiekoeffisiënte met die res van die Afrika individuele-, sowel as die streeksmarkindekse. Histories is opkomende markte onstabiel en riskant. Partydigheid vir diversifikasie in opkomende markte ontstaan vanuit die hoë ekonomiese groeipotensiaal van hierdie markte tesame met lae onderlinge afhanklikheid met ander ontwikkelde lande. Deur indekse van alle aandele wat markprestasie op die Afrika-vasteland volg saam te stel, sal beide potensiële institusionele, sowel as individuele beleggers se besluite/ontledings ondersteun word.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2003 / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: According to the World Bank's leading economists Beck and Demlrquc-Kunt one of the major competitive advantages of countries competing for long-term economic growth is the existence of an efficient and liquid domestic stock market. A number of studies have already been performed to examine solitary aspects of stock liquidity, however, rather little work has been done to comprehensively investigate its fundamental set of determinants. Furthermore, none of these studies has ever attempted to specifically focus on African stock markets. Consequently, this study aims to determine the fundamental set of drivers of stock market liquidity in general terms and to investigate the specific conditions of African equity exchanges as part of the group of emerging stock markets. Data for three different samples is collected - comprising a maximum of 46 countries and 17 annual data points - and regression analysis is employed to analyse the relationship between stock market turnover as a proxy for liquidity and a set a potential predictors. Several pure cross-sectional as well as dynamic panel regression models are designed and the results reveal that the four predictors, comprising: number of listed companies, country credit rating, severe restrictions on foreign investors and geographical location on the African continent constitute the fundamental set of drivers of stock market liquidity. In the specific case of African stock markets, domestic banking sector development tends to be the strongest determinant of stock liquidity. This study provides a great deal of value to governments and exchange managers alike; however, it should be regarded as a starting point for subsequent papers analysing the fundamental determinants of stock liquidity. For future research efforts it is recommended to expand the set of potential predictors and specifically focus on the contemporaneous component of the relation between stock market liquidity and its determinants. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Volgens die Wêreldbank se voorste ekonome, Beck en Dernirquc-Kunt, is een van die grootste mededingende voordele van lande wat meeding om langtermyn ekonomiese groei, die bestaan van 'n doeltreffende en likiede binnelandse aandelebeurs. 'n Aantal studies is reeds gedoen om die afsonderlike aspekte van effekte-likiditeit te ondersoek, maar redelik min werk is egter gedoen om die fundamentele bepalende faktore omvattend na te vors. Verder het geeneen van hierdie studies ooit probeer om spesifiek op Afrika-aandelebeurse te fokus nie. Gevolglik poog hierdie studie om die fundamentele stel drywers van aandelebeurslikiditeit in die algemeen te bepaal en om die spesifieke omstandighede van Afrika-aandelebeurse as deel van die groep ontwikkelende aandelebeurse te ondersoek. Data is versamel vir drie verskillende steekgroepe - bestaande uit 'n maksimum van 46 lande en 17 jaarlikse datapunte - en 'n regressie-analise is gebruik om die verhouding tussen aandelebeurs-omset as 'n aanduiding van likiditeit en 'n stel potensiële aanwysers te bepaal. Verskeie gewone kruisgewyse sowel as dinamiese paneelregressiemodelle is ontwerp en die resultate toon dat vier aanwysers, naamlik die aantal genoteerde maatskappye, die land se kredietgradering, ernstige beperkings op buitelandse beleggers en geografiese ligging op die Afrika-vasteland, die fundamentele stel drywers van aandelebeurs-likiditeit is. In die spesifieke geval van Afrika-aandelebeurse wil dit voorkom asof die ontwikkeling van 'n binnelandse banksektor die sterkste bepaler van effekte-likiditeit is. Hierdie studie is van waarde vir beide regerings en valutabestuurders. Dit moet egter as 'n beginpunt beskou word vir verdere studies wat die fundamentele bepalers van effekte-likiditeit analiseer. Vir verdere navorsingspogings word voorgestel dat die versameling moontlike aanwysers uitgebrei word en dat daar spesifiek gefokus word op die gelyktydige komponent van die verhouding tussen aandelebeurs-likiditeit en en sy bepalers.

Thesis (M.M. (Finance & Investment))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Wits Business School, 2017. / The extent to which the liquidity has an impact on stock return continues to be an eagerly researched topic. The effect on liquidity on the return of stocks has been a greatly debated subject on the capital market theory. The thesis looks at the impact of liquidity on the stock indices return of eight frontier markets. The paper uses two methods to estimate the regression namely, unbalanced dynamic panel Generalised Method of Moments and Fixed Effect Model. An analysis on factors affecting liquidity was done and turnover ratio, Amivest ratio and Amihud ratio were used as a measure for liquidity. The correlation between stock return and the liquidity measure was mixed; with turnover ratio having a negative correlation. Amivest ratio has positive relationship consistent with the risk premium and was found to be significant. However, the correlation on the Amihud ratio was not consistent with the liquidity premium as it was found to be positive. Although negatively correlated to return, the turnover ratio was found to be insignificant. / MT 2017

Stock market linkages have implications for portfolio diversification, asset pricing, monetary and regulatory policy as well as financial stability. This study examines the extent to which African stock markets are linked using daily data for the period 2000-2010. The study is divided into three main parts each focussing on the ways in which integration of the stock markets can be viewed. Firstly, we analyse the long run co-movement of the stock markets using both bivariate and multivariate Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) cointegration approaches. Secondly, we analyse returns linkages using Factor analysis and the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. In the Factor Analysis model, we used two extraction methods, namely Principal Component Analysis and the Maximurn Likelihood technique. The VAR model was extended with impulse response, variance decomposition and block exogeniety. Thirdly, we analyse the behaviour of volatility and the volatility linkages among the stock markets. We initially analysed and modelled volatility in each stock market using the GARCH, EGARCH and GJR GARCH and then examined the long-term trend of the volatility. Conditional volatility series for each country were then estimated using the most appropriate model and were analysed using VAR, block exogeniety, impulse response and variance decomposition to determine the extent of their linkages. The findings of the study are as follows: Both the bivariate and multivariate models found slim evidence of cointegration amongst the stock markets, suggesting that there were opportunities for portfolio diversification for investors. In general, the financial crisis had very little impact on the long-run relationships of the stock markets. Results for the returns linkages showed that there were limited retums linkages with the exceptions of South African-Namibia and Egypt-Morocco to a lesser extent. South Africa was found to be the most endogenous, whilst Ghana and Nigeria were the most exogenous on the continent. We regards to volatility, we found that it was asymmetric and persistent across all the stock markets with long term trend of volatility showing that it significantly increased for most of the markets. Finally, there were limited volatility linkages, only between South Africa, Egypt and Namibia, implying that African stock markets are still largely segmented from each other. However, the linkages between South Africa and Egypt could have negative effects as they could lead to the spread of contagion effects during times of crises. Therefore, policymakers should consider revising and improving policies to enhance economic integration on the continent.

Using a pooled panel data set from nine developing countries within the SADC region from 1992 to 2004, this paper empirically examines; firstly, the relationship between stock market development and long-term economic growth, and secondly, the macroeconomic determinants of stock market development, particularly market capitalisation as a percentage of GDP. The results suggest that there is a strong link between stock market development and economic growth, particularly through the liquidity provided by the market. The evidence obtained lends support to the view that a well-developed and functioning stock market can boost economic growth by enhancing faster capital accumulation and allowing for better resource allocation, particularly in developing countries. In terms of the macroeconomic determinants of stock market development, the results support those of Garcia and Liu (1999), in that we found the indicators of financial intermediary development, the value of shares traded as a percentage of GDP and the macroeconomic instability variable to be important determinants of stock market development.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2001. / This thesis presents a study on : (1) The construction of the SADC All Stock Market Indices, namely the SADIX (SADC Index Including South Africa) and the SADEX (SADC Index Excluding South Africa), which will serve as performance benchmarks for the region, and as indices for tracking the performance of the region excluding the JSE (2) Comparative analysis of the SADC bourses returns (3) Correlation Analysis between the SADC countries The SADC All Stock Market Indices, SADIX & SAD EX are market value, capitalization-weighted indices in which all components are weighted according to the total market value of their outstanding shares. They comprise all equity securities listed on the SADC region excluding Tanzania. Both series are calculated in local currencies and converted to US dollar terms, using end-af-week data with a base value of 1,000 as at 3rd September 1999. The dissertation presents a discussion on the regionalization of the African stock exchanges and how they this will impact the low liquidity levels which is endemic to most of the African Stock Exchanges. The results obtained indicate a significantly high correlation between the individual country indices with the SADe All Stock market Indices. Furthermore, observations are that the SADe stock exchanges show similar reactions to news flow and economic shocks. However, there are negative correlations, which will offer investors a fundamental basis for a diversification strategy in the region. Finally, the thesis concludes that despite the perception that African stock markets are in chaos, there are lucrative SADe markets, smaller in terms of size and market capitalization that will provide good returns.