Dissertation (PhD)--University of Stellenbosch, 2007. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This thesis is a collection of eight essays on links between stock market development and economic growth in selected African countries. In the first essay an overall index of stock market development shows that South Africa, Mauritius, Zimbabwe, Morocco and the BRVM in Cote d’Ivoire have the most developed stock markets in terms of market size, liquidity and transactions cost indicators. However, Nigeria and Egypt also emerge when institutional development is considered. Ghana, Malawi and Namibia have the least developed stock markets. Results from the second essay on stock markets and growth show a positive relationship between stock market development and economic growth. This positive influence is significant for countries classified as upper-middleincome economies. On the basis of market capitalization groupings, stock market developments play a significant role in growth only for moderately capitalized markets. Form the third essay exchange rate depreciation in the long-run leads to increases in stock market returns in Tunisia. Exchange rate movement leads to stock market returns in Egypt, while stock market returns lead to exchange rate movement in Kenya and Mauritius. Shocks induced by either stock market returns or exchange rate changes are more protracted in Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius and Nigeria than in South Africa and Egypt. Cointegration analysis in the fourth essay reveals a negative relationship between inflation and stock market prices for three out of seven countries: Egypt, Mauritius and South Africa. Short-run models for these countries show a negative response of stock returns to instantaneous change in inflation. In Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and Tunisia, where cointegration is absent, there is unidirectional causality from inflation to stock returns for Ghana, bidirectional causality between inflation and stock returns for Kenya, and no significant results for Nigeria and Tunisia. Results from the fifth essay show that investment in the selected countries grows significantly with an increase in stock market returns. Even without the inclusion of South Africa in the panel, stock market returns in the other relatively less developed African economies impact positively on investment growth. Cointegration tests from the sixth essay indicate a long-run relationship between interest rate and stock prices for Kenya and South Africa. In the short-run there is unidirectional causality from stock returns to interest rate in Kenya and bidirectional causality in South Africa. Responses to shocks have long-lasting effects in Egypt, Ghana, Nigeria and Tunisia and are short-lived in Mauritius. The seventh essay shows that countries with more developed stock markets (Cote d’Ivoire, South Africa, Mauritius, Tunisia and Morocco), have the most developed financial intermediation system. There is evidence from correlation analysis of complementarity between stock market development and bank developments in the selected countries. Finally from the eighth essay two long-run stable cointegration relations are found, one hinging on a larger market (South Africa) and the other on a smaller market (Ghana). The short-run error correction framework shows significant feedback and causal effects both ways from smaller to larger markets. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie tesis bestaan uit 'n versameling van agt essays oor verwantskappe tussen aandelemarkontwikkling en ekonomiese groei in geselekteerde Afrika-lande. In die eerste essay toon 'n algehele indeks van aandelemarkontwikkeling aan dat Suid-Afrika, Mauritius, Zimbabwe, Marokko en die BRVM in die Ivoorkus die mees ontwikkelde aandelemarkte het wat grootte, likiditeit en transaksiekoste-aanwysers betref. Nigerië en Egipte kom egter ook te voorskyn wanneer institusionele ontwikkeling in ag geneem word. Ghana, Malawi en Namibië se aandelemarkte is die minste ontwikkel. Die resultate van die tweede essay oor aandelemarkte en groei toon 'n positiewe verwantskap tussen aandelemarkontwikkeling en ekonomiese groei. Hierdie positiewe invloed is beduidend vir lande wat as hoër-middelinkomste ekonomieë geklassifiseer word. Aandelemarkontwikkelings speel op grond van markkapitalisasiegroeperinge net in matig gekapitaliseerde markte 'n beduidende rol in groei. In die derde essay word aangetoon dat wisselkoersdepresiasie op lang termyn tot 'n toename in aandelemarkopbrengste in Tunisië gelei het. Wisselkoersbeweging lei tot aandelemarkopbrengste in Egipte terwyl aandelemarkopbrengste tot wisselkoersbeweging in Kenia en Mauritius lei. Skokke wat deur aandelemarkopbrengste of wisselkoersveranderings veroorsaak word, is meer langdurig in Ghana, Kenia, Mauritius en Nigerië as in Suid-Afrika en Egipte. In die vierde essay bring koïntegrasie 'n negatiewe verwantskap tussen inflasie en aandelemarkpryse aan die lig vir drie van die sewe lande: Egipte, Mauritius en Suid-Afrika. Korttermynmodelle vir hierdie lande dui op 'n negatiewe respons van aandelemarkte op 'n oombliklike verandering in inflasie. In Ghana, Kenia, Nigerië en Tunisië, waar koïntegrasie afwesig is, is daar 'n eenrigting oorsaaklikheid van inflasie na aandele-opbrengste vir Ghana, 'n tweerigting oorsaaklikheid tussen inflasie en aandele-opbrengste vir Kenia, en geen beduidende resultate vir Nigerië en Tunisië nie. Die resultate in die vyfde essay toon aan dat belegging in die geselekteerde lande beduidend groei met 'n toename in aandelemarkopbrengste. Selfs sonder om Suid-Afrika by die paneel in te sluit, het aandelemarkopbrengste in ander betreklik minder ontwikkelde Afrika-ekonomieë 'n positiewe uitwerking op ekonomiese groei gehad. Die koïntegrasietoetse van die sesde essay dui op 'n langtermynverwantskap tussen rentekoerse en aandelepryse in Kenia en Suid-Afrika. Daar is op kort termyn 'n eenrigting oorsaaklikheid van aandele-opbrengste na rentekoerse in Kenia, en tweerigting oorsaaklikheid in Suid-Afrika. Response op skokke het 'n langdurige uitwerking in Egipte, Ghana, Nigerië en Tunisië, maar is van korte duur in Mauritius. Die sewende essay toon aan dat lande met meer ontwikkelde aandelemarkte (Ivoorkus, Suid-Afrika, Mauritius, Tunisië en Marokko) die mees ontwikkelde finansiële bemiddelingstelsel het. Korrelasieontleding in die geselekteerde lande toon bewyse van van komplementariteit tussen aandelemarkontwikkeling en bankontwikkeling. Laastens is daar in die agste essay twee langtermyn stabiele koïntegrasieverhoudings gevind – een wat van 'n groter mark (Suid-Afrika) afhang en een wat van 'n kleiner mark (Ghana) afhang. Die korttermyn-foutkorreksieraamwerk toon beduidende terugvoer en kousale uitwerkings in albei rigtings van kleiner tot groter markte. / pdv2012

PhD (Statistics) / Department of Statistics / There has been a growing interest in investment opportunities in Africa. The net foreign direct investment (FDI) to Sub-Saharan Africa has increased from $13 billion in 2004 to about $54 billion in 2015. Investing on the stock markets is one of such investment opportunities. Stock markets in Africa have realised growth in market capitalization, membership, value and volume traded due to an increase in investments. This level of growth in African stock markets has raised questions about their efficiency. This thesis examined the weak-form informational efficiency of African stock markets. The aim therefore of this thesis is to test the efficiency of African stock markets in the weak-form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) for eight countries, namely, Botswana, Egypt, Kenya, Mauritius, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa and Tunisia. Since, the researcher will be testing the weak-form of the EMH, the data to be used is on past price information on the markets of the eight countries. Data for the eight countries were obtained from DataStream for the period between August 28, 2000 to August 28, 2015. The data is for a period of 180 months which resulted in 3915 data points. Although there have been studies on the weak-form market efficiency of African stock markets, the efficiency conclusions on the markets have been mixed. This problem might be due to the methods used in the analyses. First, most of the methods used were linear in nature although the data generating process of stock market data is nonlinear and hence nonlinear methods maybe more appropriate in its analysis. Also these linear methods tested the efficiency of African markets in absolute form, however, an efficiency conclusion relying solely on absolute efficiency might be misleading because, stock markets become efficient with time due to improvements in the quality of information processing from reforms on the markets. The researcher solved this problem of using absolute frequency by comparing the results when the presence of long-memory in frequency and time domains of the markets were examined. The researcher used a semi-parametric estimator, the Local Whittle estimator to test for long-memory in frequency domain and the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) to test for long-memory in time domain. The DFA method is suitable for both stationary and nonstationary time series which makes it to have more power over methods like the rescaled range analysis (R/S) in the estimation of Hurst exponent. Second, the researcher examined whether the markets were predictable under the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH). The researcher employed the Generalised Spectral (GS) test to examine the Martingale difference hypothesis (MDH) of the markets. The Generalised spectral (GS) test is a non-parametric ii test designed to detect the presence of linear and nonlinear dependencies in a stationary time series. The GS test considers dependence at all lags. Third, because of the nonlinear nature in the data-generating process on the markets, the stationarity of the market returns under a nonlinear Exponential Smooth Threshold Autoregressive (ESTAR) model was examined. A nonlinear ADF unit root test against ESTAR and a modified Wald-type test against ESTAR in the analysis were employed. Fourth, the self-exciting threshold Autoregressive (SETAR) method was employed to model the returns when non-linear patterns were observed as a result of nonlinear data generating process on the markets. The literature on market efficiency of African stock markets has shown that variations exist in the study characteristics. There are variations in the method of analysis, type of test, type of data employed, time period chosen and the scope of analysis for the studies. The researcher therefore quantitatively reviewed previous studies by means of meta-analysis to identify which study characteristics affects efficiency conclusions of African markets using the mixed effects model. The findings showed the presence of long-memory in the returns of the stock markets when the whole sample was used. This made the markets weak-form inefficient, however, when the researcher tested for the persistence of long-memory through time, there were periods the markets were efficient in the weak-form. The memory effect was low in the South African market but high in the Mauritian market. Furthermore, it was observed that, the returns for Egypt, which were highly predictable when the whole data was analysed became not highly predictable when the rolling window approach of the GS test was used. Egypt had one of the lowest percentages of the windows that had a p-value less than 0.05 after South Africa. The results obtained from using the non-linear unit root tests on the logarithmic price series of the markets under study showed that, the markets were non-stationary and hence weak-form efficient under an ESTAR framework but for Botswana. Thus the markets were weak-form efficient when analysed using a non-linear method. This observation means that Africa’s foreign direct investment would have been increased over the years if the appropriate methods are used. This is because, over the years, studies on the weak-form efficiency African stock markets have ended with mixed conclusions with most of the markets being concluded to be weak-form inefficient as a result of the use of linear methods in the analysis. This finding, to us, has had an effect on investors commitments to Africa because the right methodology was not employed. iii The findings from modelling the returns under the non-linear SETAR model showed that, the SETAR model performs better than the standard AR(1) and AR(2) model for all the markets under study after the non-linear patterns were identified in the returns series. The SETAR (2,2,2) model is a threshold model, therefore, investors are able to move freely in search of higher opportunities between the low and high regimes. Investors main aim is to make profits, hence, the threshold model of SETAR gives them the freedom to move to a regime where the rate of returns is increasing unlike the standard AR(1) and AR(2) linear models where there are no switching of regimes. Finally, none of the study characteristics in the market efficiency studies was found to be significant in efficiency conclusions of African stock markets but the indicator for publication bias was significant. This means that there has been a change in attitude in recent years towards studies on informational market efficiency whose results do not support the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), unlike the earlier years when the EMH was formulated and acclaimed to be one of the best propositions in economics. It was therefore concluded that when time-varying methods are used in analysing weak-form efficiency, the dynamics of the markets become known to investors for proper decision-making. Also, nonlinear methods should be used in order to reflect the nonlinear nature of data capturing on the stock markets / NRF

Abstracts in English, Zulu and Xhosa / The information communication technology (ICT) sector has, arguably, grown in leaps and bounds over the years to assume a key role in every facet of economic activity. In the wake of the fourth industrial revolution, the major policy preoccupation of governments is how to harness ICT to spur economic growth. As such, the principal objective of this study was to examine the impact of adopting ICT on the development of African stock exchanges, determine whether ICT adoption and stock market development are co-integrated, and establish any causal links between ICT adoption and stock market development. The study examined a panel of 11 African stock exchanges for the period 2008-2017 and employed various econometric techniques to test its objectives. The dependent variable for this study was stock market development, while the independent variable was ICT adoption. The control variables employed were financial freedom and economic growth proxied by gross domestic product. In its findings, the study established that the adoption of ICT has a positive and statistically significant effect on the number of listed companies, stock market capitalisation and the total value of shares traded at the selected African stock exchanges. Hence, as an economy turns out to be progressively ICT-situated, expanded access to and utilisation of ICT advances, thus improving a nation's financial economy. Secondly, it established that ICT adoption and the stock market are cointegrated and positively related in the long run. The results further indicated a bi-directional causal relationship (complementarity) between ICT adoption and stock market development. In essence, ICT adoption and stock market development reinforce each other. This study contributes to the body of knowledge in a number of ways. This is the first study to examine the phenomenon of ICT-stock market nexus employing a panel study. Moreover, the study employed a robust methodology underpinned by using indices to proxy ICT and stock market development. Thirdly, unlike other studies on this topic, this study did not just end with the first inquiry of a deterministic relationship, but also probed for co-integration of the series tested for causality and proffers policy advice. The findings of the research imply that policymakers should be more resolute when formulating ICT policies that can drive stock market development for better economic growth and for better integration with other African stock exchanges. / Umkhakha wezethekinoloji yelwazi kanye nokuthintana (ICT) ngaphandle kokuphikiswa, ukhule wandlondlobala eminyakeni edlulileko ukobana uthome ukudlala indima eqakathekileko kiyo yoke imisebenzi yezomnotho. Ekuthomeni kwamatjhuguluko wesine wezamabubulo, into ekulu yokuthoma ngomthethomgomo karhulumende kuqala ukobana ihlelo le-ICT lingasetshenziswa bunjani ukobana lihlumise umnotho. Ngakho-ke, umnqopho omkhulu werhubhululo leli bekukuhlola umthintela wokutjhugulukela ku-ICT mayelana nokuthuthukiswa kwemaraga ye-Afrika yezokutjhentjhiselana ngamatjhezi, ukuqinisekisa ukuthi mhlambe ukutjhugulukela ku-ICT kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwemaraga yamatjhezi kungahlanganiswa na, begodu nokuhloma nginanyana ngiliphi itjhebiswano phakathi kokutjhugulukela kwi-ICT kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwemaraga yamatjhezi. . Irhubhululo belihlola iphanele yeemaraga ezili-11 zokutjhentjhiselwana mwamatjhezi esikhathini esiphakathi kuka 2008-2017 begodu lisebenzise iindlela ezahlukeneko zokumeda umnotho ukobana ihlole iminqopho yayo. Ivarebuli engakazijameli yerhubhululweli bekukuthuthukiswa kweemaraga zamatjhezi, kanti ivarebuli ezijameleko yona bekukutjhugulukela ku-ICT. Amavarebuli asetjenziswe ngeemedo kube kukhululeka ngokweemali nangokuhlumisa umnotho lokhu okukhambisana nomkhiqizo woke wangekhaya wenarha. Kilokho okutholwe lirhubhululo, irhubhululo lithole ukuthi ukutjhugulukela kwi-ICT kunomthelela omuhle khulu nokuqakatheka ngokwamanani phezu kwembalo yeenkhamphani ezitloliswe ngaphasi kwemaraga yokutjhentjhisana ngamatjhezi, phezu kokuqiniswa ngeemali kwemaraga yamatjhezi kanye nenani loke lamatjhezi athengiswa eemaraga ezikethiweko zamatjhezi ze-Afrika. Yeke-ke, njengombana ituthuko yomnotho ibonakala idzimelele phezu kwe-ICT, njengombana ukutholakala kanye nokusetjenziswa kwetuthuko ye-ICT, kanti lokho kuthuthukisa umnotho wezeemali wenarha. . Kwesibili, irhubhululo likghonile ukubona ukuthi ukutjhugulukela ku-ICT kanye neemarageni zamatjhezi kuzizinto ezihlangeneko nezihlobene ngendlela ehle esikhathini eside. Imiphumela iragele phambili nokuveza itjhebiswano elinikela indlela (complementarity) phakathi kokutjhugulukela ku-ICT kanye nekuthuthukisweni kweemaraga zamatjhezi. . Eqinisweni, ngokutjhugulukela ku-ICT neemarageni zamatjhezi kuyaziqinisa lezi zinto. Leli rhubhululo lifaka isandla kuziko lelwazi ngeendlela ezinengi. Leli kulirhubhululo lokuthoma elihlola indaba yethintano lemaraga yamatjhezi elisebenzisa irhubhululo lephaneli. Ngaphezu kwalokho, irhubhululo lisebenzisa indlela ekhutheleko esekelwa kusebenzisa amatshwayo ku-ICT esekelako kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwemaraga yamatjhezi. Kwesithathu, lokhu kuhlukile kamanye amarhubhululo amalungana nalesi sihloko, leli rhubhululo akhange aphelele nje ngokuthoma ukubuza itjhebiswano elivezako, kanti begodu leli rhubhululo belihlola ukuhlanganiswa ndawonye komlandelande ehlolwe ukudala ubujamo begodu nokunikela isiyeleliso somthethomgomo. Okutholwe lirhubhululo kutjho bona abenzi bomthethomgomo kufanele baqalisise khulu lokha nabatlama imithethomgomo ye-ICT leyo engakhozelela ituthuko yeemaraga zamatjhezi ukobana kuhlume umnotho begodu nokuhlanganiswa ncono neemaraga ze-Afrika zokutjhentjhana ngamatjhezi. / Icandelo leTheknoloji yoNxibelelwano loLwazi(i-ICT) nelinokuphikiswa, likhule kakhulu ngokukhawuleza eminyakeni egqithileyo ekudlaleni indima ephambili kwiinkalo zonke zemisebenzi yezoqoqosho. Ukuvela kwenguqu yesine yezoshishino, owona mgaqo-nkqubo uphambili koorhulumente ngowokufumana iindlela zokudibanisa ezobuchwepheshe ukukhuthaza uhlumo kwezoqoqosho. Kunjalo, injongo ephambili kolu phononongo ibikukuhlola impembelelo yokusebenzisa/ yokwamkela i-ICT kuphuhliso lotshintshiselwano lweempahla zase-Afrika, ukuhlola ukuba ukwamkelwa kwe-ICT kunye nophuhliso lweemarike zidityanisiwe, kunye nokumisa naliphi na ikhonco lonxibelelwano lonobangela phakathi kokwamkelwa kwe-ICT kunye nophuhliso lwemarike yotshintshiselwano lwempahla Uphononongo lwahlola iphaneli ezili-11 zotshintshiselwano lwempahla eAfrika kwisithuba sowama-2008 kuya ku-2017 kwaye kwasetyenziswa uthotho lweendlela zobugcisa kwezoqoqosho ukuvavanya iinjongo zalo. Into eguqukayo yoxhomekeko kolu phando yayikuphuhlisa imarike yesitokhwe, ngelixa okwakuyinto ezimeleyo yayikukwamkela i-ICT. Izinto eziguquguqukayo ezilawulwayo ezazisetyenziswa yayiyinkululeko yezemali nokukhula koqoqosho okwakucaciswa ngemveliso yasekhaya ngokubanzi. Kwiziphumo zalo zophando, lufumanise ukuba ukusetyenziswa kwe-ICT kunefuthe elilungileyo elibonakalayo ngokwamanani kwiinkampani ezidwelisiweyo, ukurhweba kwimarike yesitokhwe kunye nexabiso elipheleleyo lezabelo ezithengiswa kwiimarike zesitokhwe zotshintshiselwano ezikhethiweyo zase- Afrika.. Ngenxa yoko, njengoko uqoqosho luguquka ngokuqhubekekayo luba kwimeko ye ICT lwandise ukufikeleleka kunye nokusetyenziswa kwenkqubela phambili ye-ICT, ngaloo ndlela iphucula uqoqosho lwezimali lukazwelonke. Okwesibini, yafumanisa ukuba ukwamkelwa kwe-ICT kunye nemarike yesitokhwe kudityanisiwe kwaye ziya kusebenzisana kakuhle ekuhambeni kwexesha. Iziphumo zaye zaphinda zabonisa ubudlelwane bozalwano macala (ukuphelelisa) phakathi kokwamkelwa kwe-ICT kunye nophuhliso lwemarike yotshintshiselwano/yesitokhwe. Ngokubalulekileyo, ukwamkelwa kwe-ICT kunye nophuhliso lweemarike kwenza zomelezane. Olu phando lunegalelo kulwazi oluninzi olukhoyo ngeendlela ezininzi. Olu luphando lokuqala ukuvavanya uthotho lwamakhonco emarike yesitokwe ye-ICT-isebenzisa iiphaneli zophando. Ngaphaya koko, uphononongo lusebenzise indlela engqongqo exhaswa kukusebenzisa izalathiso (indices) zomelwano kwi-ICT kunye nophuhliso lwemarike. Okwesithathu, ngokungafaniyo nolunye uphando olwenziweyo kwesi sihloko, olu phononongo aluphelanga nje kuphando lwangaphambili olwalungobudlelwane lwezigqibo (zokuzimisela), kodwa lwaphinda lwaphandela ukuhlanganiswa kothotho oluvavanyiweyo lonobangela kunye nokuphakamisa ingcebiso yomgaqo-nkqubo. Iziphumo zophando zithetha ukuba abaqulunqi bemigaqo-nkqubo kufuneka bazimisele ngakumbi xa besenza imigaqo-nkqubo ye-ICT enokuqhubela phambili ukuphuculwa kwemakethi yesitokhwe ukwenzela ukukhulisa uqoqosho olungcono kunye nokusebenzisana kakuhle nezinye iimarike zotshintshiselwano zaseAfrika. / Business Management / D. Admin. (Business Management)

This thesis explores various aspects of long memory behaviour in African stock markets (ASMs). First, we examine long memory in both equity returns and volatility using the weak-form version of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) as a criterion. The results show that these markets (largely) display a predictable component in returns; while evidence of long memory in volatility is mixed. In general, these findings contradict the precepts of the EMH and a variety of remedial policies are suggested. Next, we re-examine evidence of volatility persistence and long memory in light of the potential existence of neglected breaks in the stock return volatility data. Our results indicate that a failure to account for time-variation in the unconditional mean variance can lead to spurious conclusions. Furthermore, a modification of the GARCH model to allow for mean variation is introduced, which, generates improved volatility forecasts for a selection of ASMs. To further evaluate the quality of volatility forecasts we compare the performance of a number of long memory models against a variety of alternatives. The results generally suggest that over short horizons simple statistical models and the short memory GARCH models provide superior forecasts of volatility; while, at longer horizons, we find some evidence in favour of long memory models. However, the various model rankings are shown to be sensitive to the choice of error statistic used to assess the accuracy of the forecasts. Finally, a wide range of volatility forecasting models are evaluated in order to ascertain which method delivers the most accurate value-at-risk (VaR) estimates in the context of Basle risk framework. The results show that both asymmetric and long memory attributes are important considerations in delivering accurate VaR measures.

Financial systems (i.e. banking systems and stock markets) can influence economic growth by performing the five key financial functions, namely: mobilising savings, allocating capital, easing of exchange, monitoring and exerting corporate governance, as well as ameliorating risk. The level of development of the financial system is a key determinant of how effectively and efficiently these functions are performed. This study examines the short-run and long-run relationships between financial system development and economic growth for a panel of seven African countries (namely: Egypt, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa and Tunisia) covering the period 1988 to 2008. While numerous empirical studies have researched this topic, none of the previous African empirical literature have investigated thjs by using three groups of financial development measures (i.e. overall financial development, banking system development and stock market development measures) as well as employing panel cointegration analyses. The investigation of the long-run finance-growth relationship is conducted using two methods; the Pedroni panel cointegration approach and the Kao panel cointegration technique. The Pedroni panel cointegracion approach is more often applied in empirical research as it has less restrictive deterministic trend assumptions, while the Kao panel cointegration technique is employed in this study for comparison purposes. Furthermore, the short-run linkages bet\veen financial development and economic growth are analysed using the Holtz-Eakin d of (1989) panel Granger causality test. The results of the Pedroni cointegration tests show that there are long-run relationships between overall financial development (measured by LOFD and OFD2) and economic growth, banking system development (measured by LPSC) and economic growth, as well as stock marker development (measured by LMCP and LVLT) and economic growth. In contrast, the Kao test fails to find any cointegration between finance and growth. However, on the balance, findings largely support a conclusion of cointegration between financial development and economic growth since the Pedroni approach is more appropriate for examining cointegration in heterogeneous panels. Estimates of these long-run cointegrating relationships show that all five financial development measures have the expected positive linkages with growth. However, only four of the five financial development measures were found to have significant long-run linkages with growth, as the relationship between LOFD and growth was not found to be significant in the long-run. The panel Granger causality results show that economic growth Granger causes banking system development in the short-run (i.e. there is demand-following finance), irrespective of the measure of banking development used. While there is bi-directional, reciprocal causality between economic growth and both of the measures of overall financial development and one measure of srock market development (i.e. LVLT). Thus, pulicy makers should focus on formulating policy which promotes faster paced economic growth so as to stimulate financial development, while at the same time encourage policy that promotes the balanced expansion of the banking systems and srock markets in ordet to augment economic growth.

The literature investigating the relationship between stock market returns and inflation is long and has produced diverse findings. This thesis examines the nature of stock–inflation relations in Sub-Saharan countries whose stock markets were established before 1992. Evidence in this thesis shows that in the short term there is a positive relationship between stocks and inflation. Using the Johansen (1988) evidence, a long-run stock–inflation relationship is confirmed only in Nigeria and South Africa, where it is found to be negative. However, accounting for structural breaks provides evidence for a long-run relationship in Botswana, Ghana and Kenya. The evidence of the effects of regimes in the relationship is further supported by a nonparametric cointegration analysis which finds a long-run relation in countries where the Johansen (1988) method had failed. Unexpected inflation is also found to be related to stock returns in Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and Mauritius, which raises concerns about the use of month-end stock data in analysing this relationship. The thesis confirms the existence of hidden inflation in Kenya, Mauritius, Nigeria and Zimbabwe. Imported inflation, interest rates and the exchange rate are found to have useful information about inflation movements in Sub-Saharan Africa.