Support vector regression has been applied to stock market forecasting problems. However, it is usually needed to tune manually the hyperparameters of the kernel functions. Multiple-kernel learning was developed to deal with this problem, by which the kernel matrix weights and Lagrange multipliers can be simultaneously derived through semidefinite programming. However, the amount of time and space required is very demanding. We develop a two-stage multiple-kernel learning algorithm by incorporating sequential minimal optimization and the gradient projection method. By this algorithm, advantages from different hyperparameter settings can be combined and overall system performance can be improved. Besides, the user need not specify the hyperparameter settings in advance, and trial-and-error for determining appropriate hyperparameter settings can then be avoided. Experimental results, obtained by running on datasets taken from Taiwan Capitalization Weighted Stock Index, show that our method performs better than other methods.

<p>Bachelor thesis within Business Administration</p><p>Title: Behavioral Finance – The Student Perspective</p><p>Authors: Kamran Sairafi, Karl Selleby, Thom Ståhl</p><p>Tutor: Urban Österlund</p><p>Date: 2008-05-30</p><p>Background: History is full of examples on how humans can create investment</p><p>bubbles through speculation; from the Dutch tulip mania to the</p><p>Dot Com bubble humans have proven to be capable of creating</p><p>economical chaos. Classical economical theories hold the assumption</p><p>that individuals act rationally regarding decisions of an</p><p>economical nature. Since the information on the stock market is</p><p>available to everyone who seeks it, the appearance of investment</p><p>bubbles should not be possible. Behavioral finance is an academic</p><p>branch which seeks to explore these phenomenons through the</p><p>psychological factors affecting humans in investment decisions.</p><p>Purpose: The purpose of the report is twofold. Firstly it is to examine the</p><p>characteristics of investment interested business students enrolled</p><p>at Jönköping International Business School. Secondly it looks into</p><p>the decision-making process and choices of the population</p><p>from the perspective of behavioral finance.</p><p>Method: This research holds an abductive approach and is based on qualitative</p><p>data. Data collection was done through an Internet-based</p><p>questionnaire containing several different questions on the areas</p><p>related to the inquiries. In some cases statistical analysis was conducted</p><p>to test for significant correlation between key characteristics.</p><p>Results: A statistically proven correlation could be discerned between</p><p>trading experience and frequency; for each additional year an individual</p><p>engaged in trading the frequency increased. Herd behavior</p><p>was detected in a majority of the sample. When faced with a</p><p>scenario in which their immediate surrounding opposed their own</p><p>analysis of a stock, the greater part of the sample would reconsider</p><p>their position. Two main sub-groups were detected. The first</p><p>was characterized by its high tolerance of risk; the second subgroup</p><p>was characterized by its inconsistency in behavior.</p><p>Conclusions: This paper found that the behavior of respondents in the chosen</p><p>population was best described as “student behavior”; a somehow</p><p>irrational behavior explained by the learning process in which</p><p>business students exist.</p>

Unified Stock Market for the Promotion of Business Activities in West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)

This dissertation is divided into an introductory chapter and four essays. Chapter one discusses the importance of the study and describes the development and growth of the market as well. The first part (Chapters 2 & 3) examines stock returns behaviour and trading activity around earnings announcements. The second part (Chapters 4 & 5) examines price impact asymmetry and the price effects of block trades in the market microstructure context. Each essay addresses some aspects of market microstructure and stock returns behaviour in order to aid researchers, investors and regulators to understand a market which lacks research coverage. The research provides empirical evidence on issues such as the efficiency of the market, information asymmetry, liquidity and price impact of block trades. In first part of the thesis, event study and regression analysis were used to measure the price reaction around earnings announcements and to examine trading activity, information asymmetry and liquidity. In second part the determinants of the price impact of block trades were examined with regard to trade size, market condition and time of the day effects using transaction data. Liquidity and information asymmetry issues of block trades were also studied in this part.

This thesis examines the impact of FTSE 100 index revisions on the various aspects of stock market quality and the cost of equity capital. Our study spans over the period 1986-2009. Our analyses indicate that the index membership enhances all aspects of liquidity, including trading continuity, trading cost and price impact. We also show that the liquidity premium and the cost of equity capital decrease significantly after additions, but do not exhibit any significant change following deletions. The finding that investment opportunities increases after additions, but do not decline following deletions suggests that the benefits of joining an index are likely to be permanent. This evidence is consistent with the investor awareness hypothesis view of Chen et al. (2004, 2006), which suggests that investors' awareness improve when a stock becomes a member of an index, but do not diminish after it is removal from the index. Finally, we report significant changes in the comovement of stock returns with the FTSE 100 index around the revision events. These changes are driven mainly by noise-related factors and partly by fundamental-related factors.

Den finansiella utbildningen präglas av klassisk finansteori som förutsätter att den finansiella marknaden prissätts rationellt. Det finns dock ett gap mellan klassisk finansteori och verklighet. Syftet har därför varit att se hur en investerare genom ökad medvetenhet om dessa anomalier kan förbättra aktiemarknadsanalys och investeringsbeslut. Studien har genomförts med ett kvalitativt tillvägagångssätt och baserats på en litteraturstudie som kompletterats med intervjuer. Under studien har en bild av investeraren som begränsat rationell framträtt i linje med de teorier som har redovisats. Där flockbeteende vuxit fram som det mest påtagliga stödet för att den klassiska finansteorin inte är att likställa med marknadens dynamiska verklighet. I studien har teorierna inom behavioral finance tematiserats och redogjorts för mot bakgrund av det empiriska underlaget. Gemensamt är att investerare tenderar att vara begränsat rationella. Psykologin är ständigt närvarande i marknaden och påverkar investerare i deras beslutsfattande i större utsträckning än vad klassisk finansteori ger utrymme för. Detta är ett av de främsta skälen till varför behavioral finance och dess teorier borde bli ett komplement till den klassiska finansteorin. Slutsatsen är att det finns möjligheter för investerare att förbättra aktiemarknadsanalys och investeringsbeslut genom att ta teorierna inom behavioral finance i beaktning. / The financial education is characterized by classical financial theory that assumes that the fi-nancial market is priced rationally. However, there is a gap between classic finance theory and reality. The aim has been to see how an investor through increased awareness of these anomalies can improve stock market analysis and investment decisions. The study was conducted with a qualitative approach and was based on a literature review supplemented by interviews. During the study, proofs of semi-rational investors have emerged in line with the theories of behavioral finance. Herd behavior has emerged as the most tangible proof that the classical financial theory is not comparable to the dynamic reality of the market. In the study, theories of behavioral finance has been thematised and explained in the light of the empirical basis. In common for those theories is that investors tend to be semi-rational. The psychology is always present in the market and affects investors in their decision making to a greater extent than classic finance theories allow. It is one of the main reasons why it should be implemented as a complement to the traditional financial theories. The conclusion is that there is potential for investors to improve stock market analysis and investment decisions by taking theories of behavioral finance into consideration.

This dissertation investigates the immediate effects of securities analysts' statements on shareholders. Two of the most important questions posed in research on capital markets are when and how analysts matter. A time at which analysts might matter is when they make pronouncements regarding a firm or industry; ways in which they might matter is through their word choices and the context of their words in these pronouncements. The question, "Do analysts matter?," has been explored before and has been answered in terms of the securities analysts' quantitative earnings forecasts and their effects on the capital markets. I investigated the discourse used in these earnings forecasts and other statements regarding the focal firm or industry in analyst reports. Therefore, I answered the question, "Do analysts matter, as defined by their words used, and do they change investors' judgments about a firm's future prospects?" The study employed content analysis of analysts' language to determine whether the words they use in their statements cause a response in the market. The study also investigated how the analysts' language differs based on their affiliations. To examine this question, I drew on the efficient markets theory from finance. Data sources included the Chicago Centre for Research on Security Prices (CRSP) tapes and First Call analyst reports. The research applied quantitative computer text analysis, the event study methodology, and regression to test the hypotheses. By studying statements from the All-American Team analysts, the present work shows that investors do consider the pronouncement of analyst statements significant. The results demonstrate support for the idea that analyst statements have an impact on the stock market. Moreover, the statement characteristics have an incremental effect on the market response. The key findings illustrate that words in the analysts' report matter. The analyst characteristics were instrumental in deciding the words that the analysts use in their reports. Finally, analysts use words to signal information to investors when they are pressured from investment banking relationships. / text

Given that Congressional hearings are established legislative and political information generating tools for committee members engaging in oversight, fact finding, and agenda setting, I examine whether or not hearings provide information to actors outside of government. More specifically, does testimony by corporate representatives provide new information to the stock market about the future profitability of certain firms? In this paper, I utilize a new dataset collected by Workman and Shafran (2009) that includes 3,300 witnesses (and their affiliations) who testified in business regulation hearings between 2000 and 2005. I identify 99 publicly traded firms with representatives testifying in 117 hearings, and utilize event study methodology to estimate the effects of testimony events on the daily stock returns of corresponding firms. I find that, even with the ‘expectedness’ of Congressional hearings, such events negatively impact stock returns both generally as well as with greater magnitude under certain conditions. This event effect is largest for politically sensitive firms and for hearings held in the Senate. When selecting a portfolio of firms that combines all significant conditions, I determine that the ‘upper bound’ of the effect is one-half a standard deviation in daily returns (or a change of -1.6% in prices). Congressional hearings with corporate testimony do, in fact, generate information for external actors. / text

There is evidence that globalization, economic assimilation and integration among countries and their financial markets have increased correlation among stock markets and the correlation may in turn impact investors’ allocation of their assets and economic policies. We have conducted a quantitative study with daily stock index quotes for the period January 2000 and December 2009 in order to measure the eventual correlation between the markets of ASEAN+3. This economic integration consists of; Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, China, Japan and South Korea. Our problem formulation is:Are the stock markets of ASEAN+3 correlated?Does the eventual correlation change under turbulent market conditions?In terms of the eventual correlation, discuss: is it possible to diversify an investment portfolio within this area?The purpose of the study is to conduct a research that will provide investors with information about stock market correlation within the chosen market. We have conducted the study with a positivistic view and a deductive approach with some theories as our starting point. The main theories discussed are; market efficiency, risk and return, Modern Portfolio Theory, correlation and international investments. By using the financial datatbase, DataStream, we have been able to collect the necessary data for our study. The data has been processed in the statistical program SPSS by using Pearson correlation.From the empirical findings and our analysis we were able to draw some main conclusions about our study. We found that most of the ASEAN+3 countries were strongly correlated with each other. Japan showed lower correlation with all of the other countries. Based on this we concluded that economic integration seems to increase correlation between stock markets. When looking at the economic downturn in 2007-2009, we found that the correlation between ASEAN+3 became stronger and positive for all of the countries. The results also showed that the correlation varies over time. We concluded that it is, to a small extent, possible to diversify an investment portfolio across these markets.

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