published_or_final_version / abstract / Business / Master / Master of Philosophy

published_or_final_version / Business / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

A dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfilment of requirements for the degree of Master of Science. January 2015. / Stylized facts play a significant role in the testing whether models agree with known statistical anomalies and phenomena that occur in financial markets or not. Thus, we can use these stylized facts as a modelling tool or just to understand the general behavior of financial markets better. In the paper by Bouchaud et al in 2004 [1] we see the promotion of a new stylized fact that correlations in trade signs fail to die out, even after large lags. In fact, Bouchaud et al expressed the correlations as a slow power-law decay over trade ticks. In the results of our empirical study of JSE and BM&FBOVESP we find that the selected stocks show the this same power-law decay of correlations of trade signs. We also find that the stocks behave in a way which may allow for price manipulation at high enough trading rates as discussed by Gatheral [2].

Thesis (M.M. (Finance & Investment)--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Wits Business School, 2016. / This paper builds upon Blanchard's (1981) model of asset prices, and provides an empirical evidence for good news cases (GNC) and/or bad news cases (BNC) as de ned in Blanchard's paper. We update Blanchard's model by introducing Taylor's rule of monetary policy and explicitly incorporate income distribution in a small, open economy. The ndings indicate that, the labour share is a strong and signi cant variable that should be considered in asset pricing models. The real exchange rate plays a signi cant role in the determination of asset prices in most of the selected countries, but the signi cance is stronger in the emerging markets economies. As the main objective of the paper, the study has found four of the selected countries to be bad news cases and eight of them are good news cases. / MT2016

A research report submitted to the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, University of the Witwatersrand, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Finance and investment. Johannesburg, 2015 / A pairs trading strategy is a market neutral trading strategy that tries to make a profit by making use of inefficiencies in financial markets. In the equity pairs trading context, a market neutral strategy, is a strategy that hedges against both market and sector risk. According to the efficient market theory in its weak form, a pairs trading strategy should not produce positive returns since the actual stock price is reflected in its past trading data. The main objective of this paper is to examine the performance and risk of an equity pairs trading strategy in an emerging market context using daily, weekly and monthly prices on the Johannesburg Securities Exchange over the period 1994 to 2014. A bootstrap method is used determine whether returns from the strategy can be attributed to skill rather than luck. / MT2016

Thesis (M.M.(Finance & Investment)--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Wits Business School, 2016 / Co-location on the JSE took place on the 14th of May 2014. This dissertation looks at the impact this event has had on the market. In order to measure the effects of colocation, market quality factors are examined before and after the event to see whether there were any significant changes. A regression is then undertaken to see the correlation between co-location, liquidity and volatility. Our results suggest that colocation benefits market liquidity but we are unable to assess the relationship with volatility. This means that the growing liquidity in the market can be used to attract more institutions and firms wishing to run trading algorithms and strategies. Trades originally meant for dark pools can be now traded on the JSE co-location servers. By moving trades from dark pools to co-location servers at the JSE and encouraging institutions to use these facilities, transparency can be increased. Exchanges should implement kill switches if it is apparent that they are being impaired or flooded with erroneous orders. The deployment of kill switches, circuit breakers and other system compliance will improve investor confidence and market stability. Subsequent research can lead to better understanding by investigating the correlation between colocation and volatility. / MT 2018

by Kei Man Keung, Tong Suk Yi. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2000. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 35-39). / ABSTRACT --- p.iii / TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.iv / LIST OF TABLES --- p.v / Chapter / Chapter I. --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter II. --- THE CHINESE CAPITAL MARKET --- p.6 / Chapter III. --- DATA AND METHODOLOGY --- p.10 / Cases Description --- p.10 / Event 1: Hong Kong Handover (1 July 1997) --- p.11 / Event 2: Zhu Rongji Elected the Prime Minister (March 1998) --- p.11 / Event 3: U.S.- China Summit (25 June 1998) --- p.12 / Event 4: The Chinese Embassy Bombingin Yugoslavia (8 May 1999) --- p.13 / Event 5: China's WTO Entry (15 November 1999) --- p.13 / Event 6: Macau Handover (20 December 1999) --- p.14 / Three Models --- p.15 / Chapter IV. --- EMPIRICAL RESULTS --- p.20 / Chapter V. --- CONCLUSION --- p.26 / APPENDIX --- p.28 / BILIOGRAPHY --- p.35

技術分析包括圖表分析和技術指標分析。比較兩者，前者偏於主觀，並且解讀方式不一，而後者卻能用科學方法來考量。本研究論文先分析市場上流行的技術指標，移動平均線。交易員觀測兩條不同日數的移動平均線，從兩線相交處尋找進出市場的時機。從領域來看，兩條不同日數的移動平均線之差屬於一種帶通濾波器。本文將解釋帶通濾波器與市場進出規則之間的關係。除了移動平均線這種線性方法，我們同時考慮非線性的訊號處理工具。特別地，本研究採用近代提出的經驗模態分解法，得出類似移動平均線相交法的一種新交易策略。我們將文中提及的方法應用在香港及中國過去五年的股票市場，並給出數值結果以顯其效。 / Technical analysis includes chart pattern reading and stock market indicators. While the former is subjective and open to different interpretations, the latter is quantied in a more scientic way. The moving average, a popular market indicator, will be analyzed in this thesis. Traders monitor the crossovers of two moving averages with different durations to nd market entry timings. From the viewpoint of frequency domain, the difference of two such moving averages is found to be a band-pass filter. The relation between band-pass filter and market entry strategy is explained. Apartfrom linear methods such as the moving average,non linear signal processing tool is also studied. In particular,the modern empirical mode decomposition is applied to derive a new trading strategy similar to the moving average crossover rule. The introduced methods are put to the test in the Hong Kong and Chinese stock markets for the last five years. Numerical results are presented to show the performance of the methods. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Lee, Tsz Ho. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2012. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 64-66). / Abstracts also in Chinese. / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.7 / Chapter 2 --- Linear Filters --- p.11 / Chapter 2.1 --- Introduction --- p.11 / Chapter 2.2 --- Frequency response --- p.13 / Chapter 2.3 --- Recursive filters --- p.16 / Chapter 2.4 --- Convolution theorem --- p.20 / Chapter 3 --- Momentum Indicators --- p.23 / Chapter 3.1 --- Introduction --- p.23 / Chapter 3.2 --- Momentum indicators --- p.24 / Chapter 3.3 --- Crossover of two moving averages --- p.25 / Chapter 3.4 --- MACD and acceleration indicators --- p.27 / Chapter 4 --- Profitability of Momentum Indicators --- p.33 / Chapter 4.1 --- Introduction --- p.33 / Chapter 4.2 --- Trading methodology --- p.34 / Chapter 4.3 --- Evaluating the performance --- p.36 / Chapter 4.4 --- Results of evaluation --- p.39 / Chapter 5 --- Empirical Mode Decomposition --- p.45 / Chapter 5.1 --- Introduction --- p.45 / Chapter 5.2 --- Instantaneous frequency --- p.46 / Chapter 5.3 --- Empirical mode decomposition --- p.47 / Chapter 5.4 --- Trading methodology --- p.50 / Chapter 5.5 --- Results of evaluation --- p.52 / Chapter 6 --- Discussions --- p.57 / Chapter A Descriptive Statistics and Additional Numerical Results --- p.60 / Bibliography --- p.64

In Japan, the turning point for its housing and stock prices at the beginning of the 1990s coincided with the turning point for its middle-aged-to-younger population ratio. In the United States, the financial crisis in 2007 also coincided with the turning point for the same ratio. Were these mere coincidences or was there a causal relationship between the middle-aged-to-younger population ratios and asset prices? In this study, the author proposed two models, namely the income and investment channels, and six hypotheses. The empirical evidence from 18 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries from 1970 to 2010 showed that the middle-aged-to-younger population ratio influenced stock prices through both the income and investment channels and the housing prices mainly through the income channel. The income model suggested that the growth in the middle-aged-to-younger population ratio increased the average national income and, hence, asset prices. The investment model allowed individuals to take advantage of this trend in asset appreciation by saving and investing. As a result, asset prices went up. These discoveries might help us understand the causal relationship between the middle-aged-to-younger population ratio and asset prices and, in the long run, the co-movement of stock and housing prices. / published_or_final_version / Real Estate and Construction / Master / Master of Philosophy

Filter trading rule is a technical trading strategy that was very popular amongst practitioners and has been used a lot for testing market efficiency. It has been shown that the filter trading rule is mathematically equivalent to the CUSUM quality control test as both are based on change point detection theory via sequential probability ratio tests (SPRT). To study the operating characteristics of the filter trading rule, many results from the CUSUM literature can be applied. However, some interesting operating characteristics of a technical trading rule such as expected profit per day may not be relevant when put into a quality control setting. In this thesis, we derive formulae for computing these operating characteristics. It is well known that just like any other technical trading rule, the filter trading rule is not effective when the asset price follows a random walk. In this thesis, we studied the statistical properties and effectiveness of the filter trading rule under different asset price models including Markov regime switching model and conditional heteroskedasticity model. The properties of the filter trading rule considered include the waiting time for the first signal in filter trading, the duration of a long or a short cycle in filter trading, the profit return derived from a long or a short cycle and the unit time return of long term filter trading. Built on the above results, we consider the problem of optimizing the performance of a filter trading rule by choosing a suitable filter size. For filter trading rule under the conditional heteroskedasticity model, the change point detection methods lead to a new technical trading rule called generalized filter trading rule in this thesis. The generalized filter trading rule is shown to have a better performance over the ordinary filter trading rule when it is applied to the trading of the Hang Seng Index futures contract. Finally, we have applied the filter trading rule to intraday trading on high frequency Hang Seng Index futures data. / published_or_final_version / Statistics and Actuarial Science / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy