A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, University of the Witwatersrand, in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D), September 2016 / This study considers momentum in share prices, per Jegadeesh and Titman (1993, 2001), on the cross-section of shares listed on the JSE. The key research objective is to define whether momentum is significant, independent and priced. ‘Significant’ implies that momentum produces significantly positive nominal and risk-adjusted profits, ‘independent’ means that momentum is independent of other non-momentum stylistic factor premiums and finally, ‘priced’ suggests that momentum is a priced factor on the JSE and thereby contributes to the cross-sectional variation in share returns. In order to determine the significance of the momentum premium on the JSE, univariate momentum sorts are conducted that consider variation in portfolio estimation and holding periods, weighting methodologies as well as liquidity constraints, price impact and microstructure effects. The results of the univariate sorts clearly indicate that momentum on the JSE is both significant and profitable assuming estimation and holding periods between three and twelve months. Furthermore, consistent with international and local literature, momentum profits reverse assuming holding periods in excess of 24 months. In order to determine whether momentum is independent, bivariate sorts and time-series attribution regressions are conducted using momentum and six non-momentum factors, namely: Size, Value, Liquidity, Market Beta, Idiosyncratic Risk and Currency Risk. The results of the bivariate sorts and time-series attribution regressions clearly indicate that momentum on the JSE is largely independent of the nonmomentum stylistic factors considered. Lastly, cross-sectional panel regressions are conducted where momentum is applied, in conjunction with the considered non-momentum factors, as an independent variable in order assess the relationship between the factors and expected returns on a share-by-share basis. The results of the panel data cross-sectional regressions clearly indicate that momentum produces a consistently significant and independent premium, conclusively proving that momentum is a priced factor that contributes to the cross-sectional variation in share returns listed on the JSE. / XL2018

Thesis (M.Com. (Finance))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, School of Economic and Business Sciences, 2016 / The purpose of the study is to investigate the effects of relaxing the assumption of multivariate normality typically utilised within the traditional asset pricing framework. This is achieved in two ways. The first involves the introduction of higher moments into the linear Capital Asset Pricing Model while the second involves a Monte Carlo experiment to determine the impact of skewness and kurtosis on test statistics traditionally employed to assess the validity of asset pricing models. We commence by establishing non-normality for the majority of sample portfolios. A cross-sectional regression approach is employed to estimate factor risk premia and test higher moment Capital Asset Pricing Models. Unconditional coskewness and unconditional cokurtosis are found to be priced within the market equity (size) sorted and book equity/market equity (value) sorted portfolio sets over the period January 1993 to December 2013. Conditional coskewness and conditional cokurtosis are found to be priced for only the size sorted portfolios over the period January 1997 to December 2013. Factor risk premia estimated for coskewness are generally positive while risk premia estimated for cokurtosis are negative. This suggests a positive relationship between coskewness and expected return and a negative relationship between cokurtosis and expected return. The results of the asset pricing model tests are mixed. The pricing errors for higher moment Capital Asset Pricing Models are shown to be significantly different from zero for size sorted portfolios while pricing errors on the value sorted, dual size-value sorted and industry portfolios are found to be statistically insignificant. This suggest that none of the asset pricing models tested are the true model as it would explain variation in expected returns regardless of the data generating process. Finally we show that the Ordinary Least Square Wald test statistic has the most desirable size characteristics while the Generalised Least Squares J-test statistic has the most desirable power characteristics when dealing with non-normal data.

Submitted as a Requirement of the Master of Management (Finance and Investment Management) University of the Witwatersrand Business School Johannesburg / The mid 2000’s saw the materialization of research into the financial engineering field of high frequency trading. It is arguable that the most prominent model to emerge from the research has been pairs trading. This idea can be extended to allow for more than two assets in a modelling method now known as statistical arbitrage. The research identifies a collection of assets with a deterministic component; it then follows a multiple linear regression to exploit persistent mispricings among these assets. Further, multiple linear regression metrics are used to identify the analytic form of the trading rule and to validate the performance of the model. The first part of model constructs combinations of assets which contain a significant predictable component by co-integration, the second part builds a predictive models for the dynamics of the mispricing using statistical model. The success of the model is demonstrated with reference to a statistical analysis of 5-minute closing prices on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) TOP40 Index and the constituent shares of the JSE TOP40 Index. / MT2017

This paper aims to investigate the apparent existence of two anomalies in the South African stock market based on regular strike action, namely the month of the year effect and seasonality across specific sectors of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.

A research report submitted to the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management at the University of the Witwatersrand in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MM in Finance and Investment March 2015 / Individual investors often do not have access to share trading information and even if they do, they may not be able to understand or accurately interpret this information. Investors rely on financial analysts’ forecasts and stock recommendations in order to make profitable investment decisions. The role of the financial analyst is an important one with two key objectives: earnings forecasts and stock recommendations (Loh and Mian 2006). These financial analysts play a significant role in the efficient functioning of global stock markets. The aim of the financial analyst is to evaluate shares trading on the stock market and their future price appreciation or depreciation to develop new buy, hold or sell recommendations to maximize shareholder wealth. The extant literature recognizes that new buy, hold and sell recommendations made by financial analysts have a substantial impact on the market (Womack, 1996). Research on financial analysts has become prevalent in financial literature with the promotion of financial analysts to the level of integral economic proxies worthy of individual examination (Bradshaw, 2011). The aim of this research report is to investigate whether financial analysts’ stock recommendations enhance or destruct shareholder wealth. The extant literature on financial analysts’ stock recommendations and forecasts suggests that the analysts’ recommendations have both a significant and an insignificant effect on stock prices in the market following the months after the change in recommendation is made. The accuracy of the financial analysts’ stock recommendations are measured in the months following the change in recommendation through determining if the recommendation outperforms the market benchmark. This report examines the effects of analysts’ recommendations on the performance of stocks on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange and concludes through determining if the share underperforms or outperforms the market benchmark surmising that to a varying degree there is value to be found in financial analysts’ stock recommendations for the individual investor.

Thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Management in Finance & Investment in the Faculty of Commerce Law and Management Wits Business School at the University of the Witwatersrand / The objective of this paper is to study the exit behaviour of private equity investments held by independent private equity firms in South Africa. As this is an exploratory study we examine empirical hypotheses previously tested by other authors. Firstly, we test whether portfolio companies within high technology sectors are more likely to achieve an initial public offering (IPO) exit relative to other exits. Secondly, we test the effect of the lending rate on the likelihood of a secondary sale. Lastly, we consider the relative preference of IPO compared to acquisition (M&A) and other exit modes. As South Africa is considered to be a bank-centered financial system (Levine, 2002), private equity investments within the market would be expected to experience poor IPO activity as suggested by the literature (Black and Gilson, 1998).The research is quantitative in nature and involves the use of statistical modelling, multinomial logistic regression was applied, using panel data, which assumes that the effect of explanatory variables on the choice of exit varies across observations (private equity firms) and over time. From the multinomial logit model it was found that; 1) High technology firms were more likely to be exited by means of M&A rather than IPO; 2) An increase in the lending rate was found to increase the likelihood of a Secondary sale which is contrary to previous research (Sousa, 2010); and 3) M&A was found to be the most likely mode of exit assuming all explanatory variables were at their mean, while IPO was the least likely mode of exit. / MT2017

A research report submitted to the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the Degree of Master of Management in Finance and Investments / The aim of this study is to determine if companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange that comply with Broad Based Black Economic Empowerment (“BBBEE”) policy exhibit abnormal operating financial performance. Whereas previous studies focused on the impact of BBBEE on shareholder wealth by measuring abnormal returns on share prices, this study focuses on the impact of BBBEE on operating financial performance of BBBEE companies. Further, previous studies have focused on just the ownership element of the scorecard; this study BEE considers all the elements of the scorecard by using BEE scores to measure compliance. BBBEE scores, which are used to determine compliance, are obtained from Empowerdex website as well as publications of the Financial Mail Top Empowered Companies (“TEC”) for the years 2004 to 2013. This study uses operating cash flows return as a proxy for operating financial performance. Industry adjusted cash flow returns are used to detect abnormal operating performance. The study uses a sample of 203 companies. The findings show that BBBEE compliant companies achieve a positive abnormal cash flow return of 2.31% over a 10 year period. Further, the findings show that the industry in which a company operates also influences whether or not a company benefits from BBBEE compliance. The study also reveals that BBBEE compliance mostly benefits companies during favourable economic periods as BBBEE companies achieve positive excess returns of 4.15% in the period prior to the economic crisis. Finally, the study reveals that the highest compliant firms are not necessarily the highest performers

University of the Witwatersrand Wits Business School Master of Finance and Investment (MMFI) / Using panel data analysis, this paper empirically examined the relationship between corporate governance and dividend payout for a sample of 109 firms listed on the JSE securities exchange over the period 2009-2013. The results show that board composition is positively related to dividend payout while institutional ownership is negatively related to dividend payout. Our findings also show a positive association between firm growth and dividend payout.

Thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the Masters in Finance and Investments in the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management Wits Business School At the University of Witwatersrand / The study focuses on determining the driving factors of the performance of different hedge fund strategies in the South African industry. This is done through the application of an augmented capital asset pricing model. The model is predicated on the original (Sharpe, 1964) and (Lintner, 1965) Capital Asset Pricing Model. The researcher uses the excess market returns and the South African Volatility index as independent variables in the explanation of hedge fund returns at strategy and portfolio level. Through the analysis, the researcher finds that the excess market returns and the South African Volatility Index characterize the hedge fund expected returns for some of the strategies using OLS and GMM techniques. The second section uses a system of seemingly unrelated regressions for both the OLS and GMM techniques to determine if the two explanatory variables are priced into the different strategies; this indeed is shown to be the case for some of the strategies examined in the analysis. / MT2017

Doctoral thesis submitted to the University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of the Doctor in Philosophy, December 2016 / Healy and Wahlen (1999:368) define earnings management as an event that “occurs when managers use judgement in financial reporting and in structuring transactions to alter financial reports to either mislead some stakeholders about the underlying economic performance of the company or to influence contractual outcomes that depend on reported accounting numbers.” Management’s intent to mislead users distinguishes accruals that signal managers’ inside information about future cash flows from earnings management which intends to misrepresent performance (Dechow and Skinner, 2000; Parfet, 2000). Earnings management is a very serious issue; if it is not detected it can result in large financial losses for investors and creditors. Earnings data is a fundamental input to valuing a firm’s shares and prospects. Erroneous assessments of future cash flows because of misleading information will result in invalid share valuations and incorrect lending decisions which can have negative consequences on capital markets. The severe negative consequences of earnings manipulation, if undetected, suggest that investors, auditors and regulatory bodies should be aware of the prevalence of earnings management in an economy, whether investors are able to detect and price suspected earnings management and the most efficient way to detect it. This thesis aims to answer two fundamental questions: Does earnings management exist in South Africa? Are investors in South Africa misled by earnings management? How to detect earnings manipulation is the predominant theme in earnings management literature. The majority of research has been conducted in advanced economies and has transformed from identifying discontinuities in earnings distributions and measuring discretionary accruals to sophisticated predictive models, such as the F-score (Dechow, Ge, Larson and Sloan, 2011). Yet, research into the subject is sparse in emerging markets and tends to replicate existing methodology. The objective of this thesis is to examine earnings management in the South African economy, with the specific aim of identifying a databank of suspected earnings management firms that can be used for further research. Because the number of firms that have been forced to restate earnings is small in this environment, this thesis resorts to identifying suspected earnings management firms using discontinuities in earnings distributions. South Africa is similar to other emerging economies in that it is characterised by concentrated ownership, weaker legal enforcement and a smaller stock exchange. The South African environment is dissimilar to emerging economies as the JSE is considered to be well regulated, accounting and auditing standards are world class and accounting transparency and disclosure are satisfactory (Leuz, Nanda, and Wysocki, 2003). The results of this thesis are relevant in an institutional and macroeconomic setting where incentives to manipulate earnings, enforcement, legal protection, rule of law and sample size may differ from those in developed economies. This thesis firstly, focuses on methodological issues that may be encountered by researchers in identifying discontinuities in earnings distributions in emerging economies and secondly, validates kernel density estimation, Lahr (2014), as a viable methodology to test for earnings management by comparing total accruals, discretionary accruals and working capital accruals between suspected earnings management and non-earnings management firms. Thirdly, deferred tax expense is considered as a predictor variable in place of discretionary accruals in detecting suspected earnings management firms. Finally, in order to investigate investors’ reaction to suspected earnings management this thesis investigates whether the market prices suspected earnings management firms differently from non-earnings management firms. Pre- selected researcher binwidths (Burgstahler and Dichev, 1997, Coulton, Taylor and Taylor, 2005, Glaum, Lichtblau, and Lindemann, 2004; Holland and Ramsay, 2003) prove to be unsuitable in this milieu. Consequently kernel density estimation Lahr (2014), which derives bandwidths from the empirical earnings distributions, is used to identify discontinuities and to concurrently investigate the effect of deflation on the location of discontinuities. Discontinuities are shown to exist in earnings levels and changes distributions and emerge around zero in earnings levels distributions where number of shares is the deflator. Two important results emerge from this analysis. Firstly, when kernel density estimation is used in levels distributions, there is evidence that deflating by market value of equity and total assets shifts the location of suspected earnings management firms to the second and third intervals to the right of zero. Scaling does not alter the location of suspected earnings management firms in earnings changes distributions. Secondly, in the earnings deflated by number of shares distribution there is evidence that the band of suspected earnings management firms contains the results of firms that have upwardly and downwardly manipulated earnings. The implication of these findings are that deflating by number of shares is probably the most efficient scalar and that if doubt exists, alternative deflators should, at least, be compared between profit and loss firms. In addition, in the presence of evidence of downwards earnings management, researchers should evaluate whether and how to identify firms that are suspected of having reduced earnings. Specifically in emerging market research, these results indicate that it is inappropriate to merely replicate distribution research based on researcher selected binwidths and that kernel density estimation is probably more efficient in identifying discontinuities as it gives researchers a much broader perspective on the location of discontinuities. Kernel density estimation is confirmed as a method to identify discontinuities in earnings levels and changes distributions by comparing total, discretionary and working capital accruals between suspected earnings management and non-earnings management firms. Evidence that discontinuities in earnings distributions may be attributable to earnings management activities is found where earnings levels and earnings changes are deflated by number of shares and market value of equity, both modified Jones and asymmetric BS discretionary accruals are significantly income increasing in suspected earnings management (EM) firms and income decreasing in non-EM firms. Scaling by total assets is not a suitable deflator in the South African context as it appears to affect the sign and statistical significance of the accruals metrics in the earnings levels before and after tax distributions. This result does not detract from the efficiency of kernel density estimation as it is attributable to the inefficiency of total accruals as a scalar in an emerging market environment. Furthermore, this research endorses Ball and Shivakumar’s (2006) (BS) finding that an asymmetric discretionary accruals model is more efficient in estimating discretionary accruals in all the distributions, irrespective of deflators. In addition, the results of this thesis show that, in an emerging economy, deferred tax is incrementally useful to modified- Jones and the asymmetric BS discretionary accruals in detecting earnings management. The implication of this result is useful to investors, auditors and regulators because deferred tax movements and its components are a visible and identifiable numbers in financial statements. Deferred tax expense can be used, instead of complicated discretionary accrual models, to identify evidence of earnings management. This means that the components of the deferred tax asset or liability accounts can be analysed to highlight unusual movements which may in turn, focus attention on unusual accruals. For researchers, this result has important implications. Kernel density estimation can be used to identify suspected earnings management firms which can be used to further research. The final chapter of this thesis explores whether investors price suspected earnings management and nonearnings management firms differently and finds that, in this South African sample, there is no difference in price levels or cumulative abnormal returns in suspected earnings management and non-earnings management firms. This result is in sharp contrast to Balsam, Bartov, and Marquardt (2002) and Baber, Shuping, and Sok-Hyong (2006) who report a negative association between unexpected discretionary accruals and cumulative abnormal returns and Keung, Lin, and Shih (2010) who find that investors react negatively to zero or small earnings surprises. To some extent the results of this section of the thesis supports the finding in Gavious (2007) that prices react to discretionary accruals only after the introduction of revised analysts’ forecasts.The finding in this thesis implies that investors in South Africa are unable to detect earnings management. This outcome should be viewed in the context of prior research that reports that the JSE may be inefficient (Bhana, 1995, 2005, 2010; Hoffman, 2012; Ward and Muller, 2012; Watson and Roussow, 2012) and may be attributed to the fact that there is no signal to investors that the quality of earnings may be questionable in the sample of suspected earnings management firms. All in all, the findings of this thesis indicate the existence of earnings management in listed companies in South Africa. / XL2018