The purpose of this thesis is to provide companies with an understanding of how Swedish apparel companies manage supplier risks connected to production activities located in China. In order to conduct this study, previous literature regarding supply chain risk management has been analysed in relation to the empirical data collected during this study. In order to answer the research question, a qualitative method and a deductive approach have been used. A qualitative method was chosen as a deeper understanding of the phenomenon supply chain risk management was desired. A deductive approach was further chosen as the topic was acknowledged by reading previous research, which clearly emphasized existing research gap within supply chain risk management.  The literature review presented in this thesis regards the importance of managing a global supply chain and the risks connected to a global supply chain. Presented is also a process of how to manage risks, and the process consists of three steps, which further provides alternative strategies in order to conduct each step. Further, the reasons why Swedish companies outsource production activities to China and the importance of supply chain risk management in China is presented. The literature review is finalized with a conceptual framework summarizing the chapter. Differences and similarities between collected empirical data and the literature review is discussed and analysed in the analysis chapter. The following chapter provides conclusions answering the research question as well as theoretical and practical implications. This thesis has contributed with filling the research gap regarding supply chain risk management, this as the thesis focuses on one specific market and one specific industry. A new framework has been constructed based on previous research and the empirical findings. This framework also contributes to the practical implications as companies with a desire to outsource to China can use the process presented in the framework. The process includes three steps which will facilitate for companies to manage supplier risks in China. This thesis has also contributed to create an understanding for companies regarding the great importance of supply chain risk management. Therefore, this thesis can contribute with valuable information for Swedish apparel companies wanting to include supply chain risk management when outsourcing to China.

As organizações estão cada vez mais dependentes das suas cadeias de suprimentos. Devido à globalização e outros fatores, as cadeias de suprimentos podem se tornar bastante complexas, e existem riscos internos e externos que podem afetar as cadeias de suprimentos das mais diversas formas. O objetivo geral deste trabalho foi levantar conceitos e métodos que possam facilitar a gestão de riscos na cadeia de suprimentos, através de estudos exploratórios na literatura, gerando resultados de relevância gerencial. O método se baseou em uma revisão de literatura e análise dos resultados. Como resultado da análise apresentada foi possível contribuir com a literatura da seguinte forma: (i) consolidação de definições de gestão de riscos na cadeia de suprimentos (GRCS); (ii) consolidação de um conjunto de fases que compreendem a gestão de riscos na cadeia de suprimentos em fases ou subprocessos; (iii) estruturação de um procedimento, em nível conceitual, que permita orientar a análise de riscos na cadeia de suprimentos, pela ótica do desempenho; (iv) proposição de uma Estrutura Analítica de Riscos (EAR) para GRCS que possa servir de inspiração para as análises de gestão de riscos em empresas ou para uso em pesquisas da área. / Organizations are increasingly dependent on their supply chains. Due to globalization and other factors, supply chains may become quite complex, and there are internal and external risks that may affect supply chains in many different ways. The general objective of this work was to erect concepts and methods that may facilitate the management of risks in the supply chain, through exploratory studies in the literature, generating results of managerial relevance. The method was based on a literature review and analysis of these results. As a result of the analysis presented it was possible to contribute to the literature as follows: (i) consolidation of definitions on Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM); (ii) consolidation of a set of phases that comprise the Supply Chain Risk Management in phases or subprocesses; (iii) structuring of a procedure, at a conceptual level, so as to steer risk analysis in the supply chain, based on the perspective of performance; (iv) proposal of a Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) for SCRM that may serve as inspiration for the Supply Chain Risk Management in companies or for use in research area.

Supply chains have expanded rapidly over the decades, with the aim to increase productivity, lower costs and fulfil demands in emerging markets. The increasing complexity in a supply chain hinders visibility and consequently reduces one’s control over the process. Cases of disruption such as the ones faced by Ericsson and Enron, have shown that a risk event occurring at one point of the supply chain can greatly affect other members, when the disruption is not properly controlled. Supply chain management thus faces a pressing need to maintain the expected yields of the system in risk situations. To achieve that, we need to both identify potential risks and evaluate their impacts, and at the same time design risk mitigation policies to locate and relocate resources to deal with risk events. This dissertation aims to analyse how supply chain risks could be effectively managed. This is done firstly by positioning the research agenda in supply chain risk management (SCRM). Then, methods for effective management of supply chain risk are identified and analysed. In order to find these, we develop a research framework in which the supply chain system is divided into subsystems based on the operations of make, source and deliver; as well as on material, financial and information flows. Furthermore, research questions are raised in order to understand the impact of risks on supply chains, to identify the performance measures for monitoring supply chains, and to determine risk mitigation strategies for improving system performances. This dissertation includes a bibliometric analysis of relevant literature of SCRM published in recent years. Based on the co-citation analysis, we identify the changing interest in SCRM, from performance-focused individual issues in the early years to integrated system issues with management perspective in recent years. We also identify the growing importance of information issues in SCRM. However, there is a relative lack of research into risk mitigation focusing on information flows in the literature. This dissertation also develops a conceptual model for analysing supply chain risk. The adoption of tools from the established field of reliability engineering provides a systematic yet robust process for risk analysis in supply chains. We have found that the potential use of a stand-alone tool of Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (FMEA) or a hybrid application of Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), will be most appropriate in SCRM. Apart from above mentioned studies, this dissertation then includes three manuscripts respectively investigating the risk mitigation policies in SCRM. First, we suggest a dynamic pricing policy when facing supply yield risk, such as price postponement, where price is determined only after receiving the delivery information. This postponed pricing, can improve the balance between supply and demand, especially when the delivery quantity is small, demand has a low uncertainty and there is a wide range when demand is sensible to price change. In another paper, a system dynamics model is developed to investigate the dispersion of disruption on the supply chain operation as well as along the network. Based on this simulation model, policies are tested to observe their influence to the performance of the supply chain. The study results support the benefit of a dual-sourcing strategy. Furthermore, information sharing, appropriate order splitting and time to react would further improve the supply chain performance when disruption strikes. In the last paper, we study how capacity should be expanded when a new product is introduced into the market. The major risk here is due to a quick capacity expansion with large investments which could be difficult to recover. Using the Bass diffusion model to describe demand development, we study how capacity expansion, together with sales plan could affect the economics of the system. Using sales information for the forecast, delaying the sales and adding initial inventories, should create a better scheme of cash flows. This dissertation contributes in several ways to the research field of SCRM. It plots research advancements which provide further directions of research in SCRM. In conjunction with the conceptual model, simulations and mathematical modelling, we have also provided suggestions for how a better and more robust supply chain could be designed and managed. The diversified modelling approaches and risk issues should also enrich the literature and stimulate future study in SCRM.

The concept of supply chain management has become an important issue for companies today in order to keep or gain competitive advantage. It is all about managing your supply chain to reach the highest possible efficiency and increase profits through cooperation with your supply chain partners. A supply chain is however vulnerable to several threats, or risks, that decreases the overall efficiency and influences the business performance. The purpose of this thesis is to identify the internal risks that can be found in a basic internal supply chain in order to make an assessment of their manageability and impact using a specific case. To do this a case study of Thule Trailers AB in Jönköping was conducted. Thule Trailers AB chose to offshore their main production of components to Poland in 2003, so the company’s internal supply chain was expanded outside of Sweden. This research looks closer at the interactions between Thule Trailers AB in Jönköping and their internal supplier plant in Poland. The research was conducted using a qualitative method with several interviews with representatives in both Jönköping and Poland, during which a number of internal risks were identified in Thule Trailers AB in Jönköpings’ internal supply chain. The conclusions made are that the internal risks identified, i.e. communication risks, quality risks etc, might not have as great an influence on the company as would external risks, they can however in comparison be managed. The findings suggest that the issues with e.g. quality and delivery basically come down to insufficient communication inside the internal supply chain. Another conclusion that could be drawn is that since the internal risks in the internal supply chain all are ripple effects, its source is almost always external, which implies that their avoidance is difficult. At least they cannot be eliminated completely by the company itself, it needs to be done in cooperation with the company’s external supply chain partners. There is potential to solve most of the internal problems that can be managed internally if both parties are prepared to put some real effort into reducing the risk sources. The risks are manageable and need to be managed to reduce the impact it has for the customer and end customer in turn. The authors of this thesis believe that for a company to be successful, the end customer has to be prioritized in almost every situation, and this goes for all of the members in the supply chain, especially the internal ones.

<p>The concept of supply chain management has become an important issue for companies today in order to keep or gain competitive advantage. It is all about managing your supply chain to reach the highest possible efficiency and increase profits through cooperation with your supply chain partners. A supply chain is however vulnerable to several threats, or risks, that decreases the overall efficiency and influences the business performance.</p><p>The purpose of this thesis is to identify the internal risks that can be found in a basic internal supply chain in order to make an assessment of their manageability and impact using a specific case. To do this a case study of Thule Trailers AB in Jönköping was conducted. Thule Trailers AB chose to offshore their main production of components to Poland in 2003, so the company’s internal supply chain was expanded outside of Sweden. This research looks closer at the interactions between Thule Trailers AB in Jönköping and their internal supplier plant in Poland. The research was conducted using a qualitative method with several interviews with representatives in both Jönköping and Poland, during which a number of internal risks were identified in Thule Trailers AB in Jönköpings’ internal supply chain.</p><p>The conclusions made are that the internal risks identified, i.e. communication risks, quality risks etc, might not have as great an influence on the company as would external risks, they can however in comparison be managed. The findings suggest that the issues with e.g. quality and delivery basically come down to insufficient communication inside the internal supply chain.</p><p>Another conclusion that could be drawn is that since the internal risks in the internal supply chain all are ripple effects, its source is almost always external, which implies that their avoidance is difficult. At least they cannot be eliminated completely by the company itself, it needs to be done in cooperation with the company’s external supply chain partners.</p><p>There is potential to solve most of the internal problems that can be managed internally if both parties are prepared to put some real effort into reducing the risk sources. The risks are manageable and need to be managed to reduce the impact it has for the customer and end customer in turn. The authors of this thesis believe that for a company to be successful, the end customer has to be prioritized in almost every situation, and this goes for all of the members in the supply chain, especially the internal ones.</p>

<p>With the extensive use of outsourcing and more frequent technological innovations, global supply chains become vastly stretched and dynamic networks. As a result, firms face increasingly significant challenges to managing their fragile supply networks and responding to more rapidly changing demand evolutions. In this dissertation, we analyze three aspects of these challenges and summarize the findings in three essays. The first essay considers firms' problem of managing social and environmental non-compliance risk at its sub-tier suppliers. We figure out under what circumstances the firms should delegate the sub-tier supplier non-compliance management to its direct suppliers and under what directly control. In the second essay, we analyze the firm's strategy to deal with random demand surges. We develop a new demand model that captures important non-Markov characteristics of possible random demand surge trajectories and derive the optimal safety stock and reactive capacity strategy. Eventually, we establish a useful framework for supply chain planning under a variety of surge demand characteristics (e.g., frequency, intensity, duration, and shape). In the third essay, we examine a dynamic customer-base management problem for a firm with finite capacity, when its customers are prone to disruption and retention risks. We show that the optimal base size is an adding-up-to policy and derive the firm's optimal capacity allocation policy when capacity shortage occurs. In summary, our studies in this dissertation provide useful modeling ideas, decision tools, insights, and guidance for firms to build up resilient supply chains from both the supply and demand sides.</p> / Dissertation

Negli ultimi vent’anni le imprese del grande dettaglio hanno assunto un ruolo ragguardevole nell’ambito della distribuzione commerciale e del sistema economico italiano. Questo lavoro di ricerca è dedicato a tale settore e, più specificatamente, ha come obiettivo l’identificazione dei rischi della logistica nelle imprese della grande distribuzione despecializzata e l’individuazione delle misure di gestione, attraverso una validazione empirica dei contributi della teoria. Partendo dalla mission dell’impresa commerciale del grande dettaglio, sono presentati i suoi principali processi di gestione, con un particolare focus su obiettivi, logiche di funzionamento e strumenti adottati nell’ambito della logistica. Inoltre sono esaminate le tipologie di rischio di supply chain e le correlate misure di mitigazione descritte in letteratura. Si è in tal modo giunti alla costruzione di una mappa dei rischi della logistica in tali imprese. Per la validazione di tale modello si sono analizzate alcune delle più importanti imprese della grande distribuzione in Italia. L’evidenza empirica ha permesso di validare tale modello, pur nella sua non esaustività, consentendo di individuare un gruppo di rischi specifici per la logistica e le principali misure di mitigazione adottate. / In the last 20 years large retailers have increased their importance in the commercial distribution and Italian economic system. The thesis is focused on these firms and, specifically, it has the purpose of identifying supply chain risks and risk responses in large-scale retail trade, by a experimental verification of theoretical models. Beginning by large retailer’s mission, its key management processes were explained, with a particular focus on goals, processes and tools of retail logistics. Furthermore supply chain risks and connected risk responses, as described in literature, were elucidated. Besides, a supply chain risk map was presented. Case studies was carried out on some of the most important Italian large retailers, with the aim to validate the risk map. It has been possible, thus, to validate the model and to identify typical supply chain risks and the most common risk response strategies.

The relaxation of international boundaries has enabled the globalisation of markets making available an ever increasing number of specialised suppliers and markets. Inevitably this results in supply chains sharing suppliers and customers reflected in a network of relationships. Within this context firms buyers configure their supply relationships based on their perception of supply risk. Risk is managed by either increasing trust or commitment or by increasing the number of suppliers. Increasing trust and commitment facilitates collaboration and reduces the propensity for a supplier to exit the relationship. Conversely, increasing the number of suppliers reduces dependency and increases the ease of making alternative supply arrangements. The emergent network of relationships is dynamic and complex, and due in no small part to the influence of inventory management practices, tightly coupled. This critical organization of the network describes a system that contrary to existing supply chain conceptualisation exists far from equilibrium, requiring a different more appropriate theoretical lens through which to view them. This thesis adopts a Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) perspective to position supply networks as tightly coupled complex systems which according to Normal Accident Theory (NAT) are vulnerable to disruptions as a consequence of normal operations. The consequential boundless and emergent nature of supply networks makes them difficult to research using traditional empirical methods, instead this research builds a generalised supply network agent based computer model, allowing network constituents (agents) to take autonomous parallel action reflecting the true emergent nature of supply networks. This thesis uses the results from a series of carefully designed computer experiments to elucidate how supply networks respond to a variety of market structures and permitted agent behaviours. Market structures define the vertical (between tier) and horizontal (within tier) levels of price differentiation. Within each structure agents are permitted to autonomously modify their prices (constrained by market structure) and collaborate by sharing demand information. By examining how supply networks respond to different permitted agent behaviours in a range of market structures this thesis makes 4 contributions. Firstly, it extends NAT by incorporating the adaptive nature of supply network constituents. Secondly it extends supply chain management by specifying supply networks as dynamic not static phenomena. Thirdly it extends supply chain risk management through developing an understanding of the impact different permitted behaviour combinations on the networks vulnerability to disruptions in the context of normal operations. Finally by developing the understanding how normal operations impact a supply networks vulnerability to disruptions it informs the practice of supply chain risk management.

This paper presents an expert system to monitor social sustainability compliance in supply chains. The system allows to continuously rank suppliers based on their risk of breaching sustainability standards on child labor. It uses a Bayesian network to determine the breach likelihood for each supplier location based on the integration of statistical data, audit results and public reports of child labor incidents. Publicly available statistics on the frequency of child labor in different regions and industries are used as contextual prior. The impact of audit results on the breach likelihood is calibrated based on expert input. Child labor incident observations are included automatically from publicly available news sources using text mining algorithms. The impact of an observation on the breach likelihood is determined by its relevance, credibility and frequency. Extensive tests reveal that the expert system correctly replicates the decisions of domain experts in the fields supply chain management, sustainability management, and risk management.

Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) supply chains (SCs) are becoming more and more vulnerable to different types of risks due to the increasing complexity of markets, uncertainties, and turbulence, especially in the Middle East Region (MER). The main reason behind this is the political and economic instabilities resulting from the Arab Spring revolutions which affected all SC entities. There is an urgent need to investigate how to build resilient SCs that can help all partners in the chain to proactively identify and sidestep risks, and bounce back more quickly in the case of disruptions. For this reason, this research focuses on the creation of effective SC resilience model that could help companies to avoid SC risks to reduce vulnerability instead of being reactive toward disruptions. A conceptual model for SC resilience has been developed which identified three main constructs of SC resilience: risks, capabilities, and key performance indicators (KPIs). The links between the three constructs have been established. The empirical study has been conducted in two stages. In stage one, semi-structured interviews were conducted to collect data from 30 companies in FMCG SCs operating in the MER. A combination of thematic and comparative analysis has been used to analyse the qualitative data collected from the interviews in order to identify the main themes (types of risks and their causes, capabilities, and relevant KPIs), and to find the relations between themes. In stage 2, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to prioritize and rank the risks, capabilities, and KPIs using pairwise comparisons by taking into account opinions and preferences from SC managers in the FMCG industry in the MER. Preceding the analysis, a second round of structured interviews according to AHP process were conducted with the same 30 companies used in stage one. The thesis adds to the SC resilience literature by empirically explore the main causes of SC vulnerabilities that the FMCG SCs face in the MER and how companies can increase their capabilities to improve the resilience performance of the entire chain. An important contribution of this thesis is the development of the model for SC resilience in FMCG industry in MER context, that provides a useful reference model to assist managers in build a resilient SC, specifically, by identifying the main types of risks and their sources, by defining relevant capabilities that can help anticipate and overcome risks, and by recommending appropriate KPIs that can act as a sensor to market dynamics in the FMCG industry in MER. The model with the matrices (of risks-capabilities-KPIs) developed in this research established the links and interactions among the risks, capabilities, and KPIs which have great potential in guiding decision makers through the SC management (SCM) process, so that more informed decisions can be made and implemented for important risks to be avoided and to create more resilient FMCG SCs.