A simulation model analyzes cost effectiveness of remote facility monitoring for risk reduction in rural water supply systems by performing a break-even analysis that compares operating costs with manual and remote monitoring. Water system operating cost includes the value of water loss (i.e., realized risk) resulting from operating excursions which are inversely related to mechanical reliability. Reliability is controlled by facility monitoring that identifies excursions enabling operators to implement mitigating measures. Cost effectiveness refers to the cost relationship among operating alternatives that reveals changed economic conditions at different operating rates inherent in the inverse relationship between fixed and variable costs. Break-even analysis describes cost effectiveness by identifying the operating rate above which the more capital intensive alternative will result in lower operating cost. Evidence indicates that increased monitoring frequency associated with remote monitoring can reduce water system operating cost by improving reliability, but whether remote monitoring is cost effective depends upon system-specific factors. The lack of a documented tool for evaluating this type of cost effectiveness led to the project objective of developing a model that performs break-even analysis by simulating water system operating costs as functions of system size (delivery rate). When the spreadsheet-based static deterministic parametric simulation model is run for the Tazewell County, Virginia water system based upon 1998 data, break even is predicted at approximately fifty-five percent of annual capacity (116,338,000 gallons) with operating cost of $1,043,400. Maximum annual operating cost reduction from a $317,600 investment provides payback in nine years. / Master of Science

In this study, a model is developed to assess risk to a municipal water supply system under the influence of population growth and climate change. To incorporate the uncertainly in water use, a model which combines time series Monte Carlo simulations and a deterministic artificial neural network (ANN) is developed to simulate the daily water demand under climate variability. The model is then expanded in two directions. One direction is to estimate the effects of demand management programs and system expansion on the reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability of the water supply system. Another direction is to capture the possible impacts of climate change on the risk of a water supply system. Twenty-six scenarios generated from different combinations of demand management programs, system expansions and Global Climate Model (GCM) scenarios were set to illustrate the risk indices: reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability. To illustrate the effects of a change of precipitation frequency and a higher population growth, twenty-five additional scenarios were evaluated.

In this study, a model is developed to assess risk to a municipal water supply system under the influence of population growth and climate change. To incorporate the uncertainly in water use, a model which combines time series Monte Carlo simulations and a deterministic artificial neural network (ANN) is developed to simulate the daily water demand under climate variability. The model is then expanded in two directions. One direction is to estimate the effects of demand management programs and system expansion on the reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability of the water supply system. Another direction is to capture the possible impacts of climate change on the risk of a water supply system. Twenty-six scenarios generated from different combinations of demand management programs, system expansions and Global Climate Model (GCM) scenarios were set to illustrate the risk indices: reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability. To illustrate the effects of a change of precipitation frequency and a higher population growth, twenty-five additional scenarios were evaluated.

Hospital-acquired Legionnaires¡¦ Disease (LD) is a bacterial pneumonia caused by the genus of Legionella. It is an opportunistic pathogen with the characteristic of widespread distribution in the environment. Its source of infection associates with potable water systems. Proactively culturing hospital water supply for Legionella as a strategy for prevention of nosocomial LD has been widely adopted in other countries. Nosocomial LDs has been hardly reported in Taiwan. In addition, environmental cultures of Legionella in potable water systems in hospitals have not been systematically implemented. Thus, the purpose of the research is to confirm if LD presents in the hospital in Taiwan, and developing risk management strategy in hospital-acquired LD. To practice one-year prospective surveillance program for LD, we choose a military hospital in Southern Taiwan, collecting the specimens from the nosocomial and community-acquired pneumonia patients for legionella investigations. In the meanwhile, we collect water samples for hospital epidemiological investigation every 3 months. Isolated Legionella pneumophila is serotyped and analyzed by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis. From Nov 1, 2006 to Oct 30, 2007, within 54 cases of nosocomial and 300 cases of community-acquired pneumonia, only one case of nosocomial LD was found. Environmental investigations detected L. pneumophila in 17(20.7%) of the 84 water samples, of which 82.4% (14/17) belonged to serogroup 1. The result demonstrated the infection source of the only positive case of nosocominal pneumonia is the potable water supply system of another hospital. In conclusion: 1. The infection source of nosocomial LD is the potable water supply system of the hospital. 2. The positive rate of distal outlets for L. pneumophila is a reasonable and reliable indicator in risk management for nosocomial LD. 3. Uncovered cases of nosocomial LD will be found in prospective clinical surveillance for LD. Suggestions: 1. Routine water-quality monitoring should be added in environmental water culture for L. pneumophila in the institution, such as hospital, nursing home, hotel, restaurant, SPA, swimming pool, hot spring, school, army, etc. 2. We advise that government health department carries out national surveillance for hospital water environment in determining the risk of hospital-acquired LD. 3. Education and training program need to be provided for medical staffs in the diagnostic skills of nosocomial LD to avoid misdiagnosing and delaying the treatment.

Orientador: Edevar Luvizotto Junior / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Civil, Arquitetura e Urbanismo / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-11T18:08:54Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Silva_NeusaAparecidaSales_M.pdf: 3550514 bytes, checksum: 2963e1b4e84aea2fc6b498b7ef92c3dc (MD5) Previous issue date: 2003 / Resumo: A gestão de uma empresa de abastecimento de água fundamenta-se em um conjunto de dados gerais, sobre os quais se geram informações (dados tratados) através das quais são tomadas decisões de ações efetivas. As informações se traduzem normalmente em indicativos puros, tais como número de consumidores, extensão da rede, volume produzido, volume consumido, etc. As devidas relações destes indicativos ¿puros¿ podem fornecer valiosas informações de diagnostico do sistema. Tais relações são chamadas de ¿guias¿ ou indicadores de gestão. O presente trabalho coletou da literatura (de organizações de reconhecida credibilidade) um conjunto de 254 indicadores de gestão para empresas de abastecimento. Estes indicadores foram submetidos à análise, por meio de questionário apropriado, pelos diversos setores de um grupo de empresas selecionadas. O resultado das análises, fornece indícios do baixo emprego e conhecimento de indicadores de gestão por parte das empresas de abastecimento (a menos dos exigidos por parte de órgãos de financiamento). Também a falta de uma cultura de manutenção de um banco de dados atualizados, a falta de um rigor no trato destas informações, põem em duvida os valores obtidos para os indicadores utilizados como contribuição deste trabalho. Aproveitando o resultado dos questionários o trabalho estabelece um conjunto de 61 indicadores que parece atender em conjunto a todos os entrevistados sendo portanto tomados como o elenco básico de indicadores de gestão / Abstract: The management of a water suply company is based on general data. One conceive information about this data, and with these information one can take decisions of effective actions. The information are translated in pure indicators, such as number of consumers, the net length, produced and cosumed volume, etc. The proper relations between these pure indicators may supply worth information for the diagnosis of the system. Such relations are called ¿Guides¿ or management indicators. This paper has collected from the literature from the organizations that have recognized credibility a set of 254 management indicators for water supply companies. These indicators were analised, by means of proper questionnaire, by several sections from some chosen companies. The result of this analisis, shows that the water supply companies has a low use and knowledge of these management indicators except those that are required by the finance companies. Also the lack of a culture of maintenance of updated data, the lack of a rigor in treat these information, make the values got to the indicators used as a contribuition for this paper doubtful. Using the questionnaires result this paper establish a set of 61 indicators that seems to serve all the interwied people and so they are used as the basic management indicadores / Mestrado / Recursos Hidricos / Mestre em Engenharia Civil

Water scarcity has caused severe impact on the entire ecosphere while the climate change is resulting in high frequency of extreme weather conditions, especially extended period of drought. Due to the even increasing world’s population and the continued societal modernization, water scarcity is now one of the leading global challenges towards the development of human society. On the other hand, atmospheric water, accounting for 6 times the water in all rivers on Earth, is emerging as an alternative water resource. This dissertation thoroughly investigated the fully solar energy driven atmospheric water harvesting (AWH) process in a broad scientific and application context. The light-to-heat conversion process of solar photothermal materials was investigated first with a rationally designed droplet-laser system, which in combination with the calculation of heat of absorption of water vapor for various application scenarios, formed a theoretical basis of this dissertation research. As a result, a series of commonly used hydrated salts and their anhydrous counterparts were judiciously selected and successfully proven to be low-cost AWH materials to generate clean fresh water for arid regions. A hydrogel-deliquescent salt composite was further developed as AWH material with a significantly enhanced fresh water production capacity. A new design of nano-capsule encapsulated deliquescent salt was further put forward to enhance water vapor sorption/desorption kinetics, which enabled, for the first time, multiple sorption/desorption cycles within one day and thus multiplied water production capacity. The first-ever continuous AWH device, as opposed to batch-type one, was rationally designed, fabricated, and successfully tested in field conditions outdoors. At last, the dissertation pioneered a novel concept of atmospheric water sorption and desorption cycle for photovoltaic (PV) panel cooling. This dissertation shines significant light on sorption based atmospheric water harvesting and inspires more research efforts on this important research topic.

Capacity remuneration mechanisms (CRMs) are “climbing” regulatory agendas in all liberalised power sectors, especially in the European Union. CRMs are introduced to improve system reliability and to minimise power shortages to an economically efficient extent. These schemes will have a central role in future power systems. This PhD thesis provides an in-depth review of CRM design elements and recommendations to increase their efficiency and effectiveness, particularly in view of the challenges that these mechanisms have to confront in the current power sector environment, characterised by the pursuit of decarbonisation. The attention is focused here on the interaction with regional market integration, the need for properly-designed performance incentives, and the interaction with renewable technologies. The research is based on empirical evidence collected from international experiences, which is complemented, where applicable, by a model-based analysis to examine specific design elements. The outcomes of this PhD thesis can be summarised as follows. The participation of cross-border resources in national CRMs must be guaranteed in order to fully seize the benefits of regional market integration. However, this participation requires a strong commitment from power systems (and governments) in the regional market and the implementation of network codes and market rules that deter system operators from blocking exports when the latter are the outcome of an efficient market clearing. Where short-term markets are coordinated through market coupling, the algorithm must include a conditional nomination rule that ensures that, during regional scarcity conditions, available resources are assigned to those consumers that paid for them in the CRM market. CRMs must rely on robust performance incentives that foster the actual delivery of the committed capacity. High penalty rates may increase the cost of the capacity market, but the overall cost of electricity supply may decrease. Renewable technologies should be allowed to participate in CRMs and should be exposed to the market signals provided by these mechanisms. If renewable and conventional technologies must compete in the same markets, they should do it subject to the same rules. Obviously this participation must be coordinated with renewable support schemes, discounting CRM revenues. / <p>QC 20160411</p>

O presente trabalho de pesquisa enfoca a problemática da previsão de demandas com vistas à operação dos sistemas de abastecimento de água em tempo real, utilizando-se dados de consumo horários de água das cidades de São Carlos e Araraquara, SP, para que se identifique o modelo que produza os melhores ajustes. Foram estudadas as redes neurais artificiais Perceptron de Múltiplas Camadas (RNAs MLP), a Rede Neural Dinâmica (DAN2) e duas RNAs híbridas, sendo que estas últimas consistem em associar previsão por séries de Fourier com a RNA MLP e a DAN2, sendo denominadas respectivamente RNA-H e DAN2-H. As entradas fornecidas para os modelos de previsão foram escolhidas com base na revisão bibliográfica e por meio de análise de correlação, considerando os dados de consumo e as variáveis meteorológicas, tais como temperatura, umidade relativa do ar e ocorrência de chuva. Os melhores modelos de previsão utilizaram a DAN2, a qual se mostrou de manuseio mais fácil em relação às redes neurais de múltiplas camadas, pois dispensa o processo de tentativas e erros para se determinar a melhor arquitetura para os dados fornecidos ao modelo. Os melhores modelos de previsão para a próxima hora produziram um erro médio absoluto de 2,25 L/s (DAN2-H) para um subssetor de Araraquara, representado cerca de 8% do consumo médio, e 2,3 L/s (DAN2) para um setor de São Carlos, equivalente a 4% do consumo médio. / The present work focuses the problem of water demand forecasting for real time operation of WSS. The study was conducted using hourly consumption data from water distribution system from the cities of São Carlos, Araraquara, SP, to identify the model that fits better. It were studied the artificial neural network Multilayer Perceptron (ANN MLP), the Dynamic Neural Network (DAN2) and two hybrid ANN. The hybrid ANN is an association of the water demand prevision by series of Fourier with the ANN MLP and DAN2, which were called respectively ANN-H and DAN2-H. The inputs provided to the forecasting models were chosen based on literature review and correlation analysis, considering consumption data and meteorological variables, such as temperature, air relative humidity and rain occurrence. The best forecasting models were based on DAN2, which showed easy handling compared to other neural network with multiple layers, because it dispenses the trial and error procedure to find the best architecture for a given data. The best forecasting model for the next hour produced an absolute medium error of 2.25 L/s (DAN2-H) for a subsector from Araraquara, representing about 8% of the average consumption, and 2.30 L/s (DAN2) for a sector from São Carlos, which correspond to 4% of its average consumption.

This dissertation proposes a novel control technique for power density maximization of the brushless DC (BLDC) generator which is a nonsinusoidal power supply system. In a generator of given rating, the weight and size of the system affect the fuel consumption directly, therefore power density is one of the most important issues in a stand-alone generator. Conventional rectification methods cannot achieve the maximum power possible because of a distorted or unsuitable current waveform. The optimal current waveform for maximizing power density and minimizing machine size and weight in a nonsinusoidal power supply system has been proposed theoretically and verified by simulation and experimental work. Also, various attributes of practical interest are analyzed and simulated to investigate the impact on real systems.

In the era of low-margin products, Taiwan¡¦s electronics manufacturing service (EMS) providers, who produce communication, computers, and consumer electronics products, have become the most important partners to the most prominent international brand retailers. This is due to their premium cost advantages and superior efficiency in supply chain management through their global expansion and resourcing strategies. EMS providers¡¦ strong connections with component suppliers are another key factor contributing to their success. Following the EMS manufacturers¡¦ global expansion and resourcing strategies, the component suppliers have to set up factories in China, South East Asia, East Europe and Latin America. As these component suppliers are usually small- and medium-sized enterprises or are start-up businesses, their resources are not as abundant as the EMS manufacturers. As a result, it is more difficult and requires extra care when attempting to become globalized. As well, they normally have to learn as they proceed and this pertains to human capital, financial resources and the competency to operate globally This research is concern with human resources management. In other words, ¡§based on EMS manufacturers¡¦ global disposition strategy, how do the component suppliers develop their human resources to set up the factories globally.¡¨ This research defines human resources management as employment and development. This study utilizes the human resources development practices of the EMS manufacturers as the benchmark for component suppliers. As a result, two EMS manufacturers and one component supplier are chosen as objects of study. This shall help to generalize the principle practices used in human resources development of the EMS manufacturers and hopefully implications for component suppliers can be derived. The research is based on a case study. Three conclusions are generated from data collection and analyses: 1.With a prominent trend towards globalization, the human resources department of the EMS manufacturers has transformed its role from a conventional unit in charge of daily routine activities such as recruitment, training and promotion to a value-added one. 2.According to the human resources management philosophies adopted by different EMS manufacturers, the human resources acquisition strategy can be categorized into two types. The first type is a group with a higher commitment in human resources while the other does not have as much. The former group which has a higher commitment concentrates on internal training. This group prefers to train staffs by themselves and uses both physical and virtual training platforms. The latter group which has a lower commitment acquires staffs from the labor market directly and target in using the physical training platform. 3.In addition to evaluating the employees¡¦ capability, personality curves can also be developed during the recruiting process. Human resource development solely by physical platform is insufficient and it is essential to incorporate the electronic platform to enhance its effectiveness.