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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

Bayesian Parameterization in the spread of Diseases

Eriksson, Robin January 2017 (has links)
Mathematical and computational epidemiological models are important tools in efforts to combat the spread of infectious diseases. The models can be used to predict further progression of an epidemic and for assessing potential countermeasures to control disease spread. In the proposal of models (when data is available), one needs parameter estimation methods. In this thesis, likelihood-less Bayesian inference methods are concerned. The data and the model originate from the spread of a verotoxigenic Escherichia coli in the Swedish cattle population. In using the SISE3 model, which is an extension of the susceptible-infected-susceptible model with added environmental pressure and three age categories, two different methods were employed to give an estimated posterior: Approximate Bayesian Computations and Synthetic Likelihood Markov chain Monte Carlo. The mean values of the resulting posteriors were close to the previously performed point estimates, which gives the conclusion that Bayesian inference on a nation scaled SIS-like network is conceivable.

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