abstract: This dissertation presents the development of structural health monitoring and prognostic health management methodologies for complex structures and systems in the field of mechanical engineering. To overcome various challenges historically associated with complex structures and systems such as complicated sensing mechanisms, noisy information, and large-size datasets, a hybrid monitoring framework comprising of solid mechanics concepts and data mining technologies is developed. In such a framework, the solid mechanics simulations provide additional intuitions to data mining techniques reducing the dependence of accuracy on the training set, while the data mining approaches fuse and interpret information from the targeted system enabling the capability for real-time monitoring with efficient computation. In the case of structural health monitoring, ultrasonic guided waves are utilized for damage identification and localization in complex composite structures. Signal processing and data mining techniques are integrated into the damage localization framework, and the converted wave modes, which are induced by the thickness variation due to the presence of delamination, are used as damage indicators. This framework has been validated through experiments and has shown sufficient accuracy in locating delamination in X-COR sandwich composites without the need of baseline information. Besides the localization of internal damage, the Gaussian process machine learning technique is integrated with finite element method as an online-offline prediction model to predict crack propagation with overloads under biaxial loading conditions; such a probabilistic prognosis model, with limited number of training examples, has shown increased accuracy over state-of-the-art techniques in predicting crack retardation behaviors induced by overloads. In the case of system level management, a monitoring framework built using a multivariate Gaussian model as basis is developed to evaluate the anomalous condition of commercial aircrafts. This method has been validated using commercial airline data and has shown high sensitivity to variations in aircraft dynamics and pilot operations. Moreover, this framework was also tested on simulated aircraft faults and its feasibility for real-time monitoring was demonstrated with sufficient computation efficiency. This research is expected to serve as a practical addition to the existing literature while possessing the potential to be adopted in realistic engineering applications. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Mechanical Engineering 2019

The development and implementation challenges associated with a proposed load allocation paradigm for fault risk assessment and system health management based on uncertain fault diagnostic and failure prognostic information are investigated. Health management actions are formulated in terms of a value associated with improving system reliability, and a cost associated with inducing deviations from a system's nominal performance. Three simulated case study systems are considered to highlight some of the fundamental challenges of formulating and solving an optimization on the space of available supervisory control actions in the described health management architecture. Repeated simulation studies on the three case-study systems are used to illustrate an empirical approach for tuning the conservatism of health management policies by way of adjusting risk assessment metrics in the proposed health management paradigm. The implementation and testing of a real-world prognostic system is presented to illustrate model development challenges not directly addressed in the analysis of the simulated case study systems. Real-time battery charge depletion prediction for a small unmanned aerial vehicle is considered in the real-world case study. An architecture for offline testing of prognostics and decision making algorithms is explained to facilitate empirical tuning of risk assessment metrics and health management policies, as was demonstrated for the three simulated case study systems.

Prognostics and health management (PHM) is a major tool enabling systems to evaluate their reliability in real-time operation. Despite ground-breaking advances in most engineering and scientific disciplines during the past decades, reliability engineering has not seen significant breakthroughs or noticeable advances. Therefore, self-awareness of the embedded system is also often required in the sense that the system should be able to assess its own health state and failure records, and those of its main components, and take action appropriately. This thesis presents a radically new prognostics approach to reliable system design that will revolutionise complex power electronic systems with robust prognostics capability enhanced Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors (IGBT) in applications where reliability is significantly challenging and critical. The IGBT is considered as one of the components that is mainly damaged in converters and experiences a number of failure mechanisms, such as bond wire lift off, die attached solder crack, loose gate control voltage, etc. The resulting effects mentioned are complex. For instance, solder crack growth results in increasing the IGBT’s thermal junction which becomes a source of heat turns to wire bond lift off. As a result, the indication of this failure can be seen often in increasing on-state resistance relating to the voltage drop between on-state collector-emitter. On the other hand, hot carrier injection is increased due to electrical stress. Additionally, IGBTs are components that mainly work under high stress, temperature and power consumptions due to the higher range of load that these devices need to switch. This accelerates the degradation mechanism in the power switches in discrete fashion till reaches failure state which fail after several hundred cycles. To this end, exploiting failure mechanism knowledge of IGBTs and identifying failure parameter indication are background information of developing failure model and prognostics algorithm to calculate remaining useful life (RUL) along with ±10% confidence bounds. A number of various prognostics models have been developed for forecasting time to failure of IGBTs and the performance of the presented estimation models has been evaluated based on two different evaluation metrics. The results show significant improvement in health monitoring capability for power switches. Furthermore, the reliability of the power switch was calculated and conducted to fully describe health state of the converter and reconfigure the control parameter using adaptive algorithm under degradation and load mission limitation. As a result, the life expectancy of devices has been increased. These all allow condition-monitoring facilities to minimise stress levels and predict future failure which greatly reduces the likelihood of power switch failures in the first place.