Ulaanbaatar city is the capital city of Mongolia. Presently more than 50 percent of the Mongolian population lives in Ulaanbaatar city, which comprises of 3% of the country’s land area. Water supply for Ulaanbaatar City is supplied solely from groundwater, which is a limited resource that exhibits slow replenishment. It has been recognized that the increasing water demand will eventually exceed the capacity of the known groundwater resources. Therefore, discovering and developing additional water sources or developing creative alternatives is an important challenge for the city. This challenge is especially critical given the anticipated impacts of climate change. Reuse of wastewater has been proposed as an alternative to reduce the overall water supply demand for the city. The first water reuse regulations in Mongolia were passed in 2018, so the institutional setting on water reuse considered to be very open. The goal of this project was to develop a systems approach to characterize the wastewater reuse and provide a basis for evaluating design alternatives that will reduce the use of groundwater resources. A system dynamics model was developed based on the Vensim modeling software to characterize the water use and wastewater budget for the City of Ulaanbaatar. This approach considered the potential role of wastewater reuse as an approach for maintaining a sustainable water supply. Water supply and wastewater generation were estimated for domestic and industrial use. The focus was on industrial reuse with consideration to the current economic and institutional settings of Mongolia. The model took into account the water requirements for various industries (including tannery, wool, food and beverage, soft beverage and alcohol, paper production and car wash, and thermal power). Two different models were generated to compare the systematic change when reuse is incorporated into the system, and linear growth was considered to provide the most appropriate predictions for future changes in water demand. The analysis and model results showed reuse options were likely limited for domestic supplies, but industrial reuse could provide a 4% reduction in total water demand and significant reductions in water use by power generation facilities.

Bitumen extraction in the Athabasca oil sands in Alberta releases metals to the region. In this study, I performed an uptake-elimination experiment with wood frog tadpoles (Lithobates sylvaticus) to determine the bioaccumulation potential of metals from exposure to MacKay River sediment, an area affected by oil sands contamination, and to uncontaminated reference sediment. Wood frog tadpoles, Gosner stages 28-32, were exposed to two sediments: (1) MacKay River sediment that is enriched in petrogenic hydrocarbons from natural and anthropogenic sources; and (2) an uncontaminated reference sediment. Tadpole exposures to sediments lasted 4 days, followed by a depuration phase for an additional 4 days where tadpoles were allowed to eliminate excess metals from their bodies. The metal concentrations at various time points during the uptake and elimination phases were determined in order to define toxicokinetic parameters, such as uptake and elimination first order rate constants, accumulation by ingestion, and assimilation efficiencies for specific metals. It was determined that tadpoles exposed to the MacKay sediment had higher concentrations of Al, Co, Cu, Cr, Mg, Ni, Pb, V, and Zn throughout the uptake phase of the study compared to tadpoles exposed to reference sediment. We also observed little to no decrease in concentrations of Al, Co, Cu, Cr, Mg, Ni, Pb, V, and Zn throughout the elimination phase of the study. In addition, biota-sediment accumulation factors (BSAF) revealed that Cu, Zn, Cr, and V had among the highest bioaccumulation potential in our trials. The experiment was subsequently repeated by preventing direct contact of the tadpoles to sediment with a screen, exposing tadpoles only to metals in water. By comparing tadpole exposures to metals from ‘aqueous’ and ‘aqueous +sediment’ in separate trials, and by tracking sediment ingestion rates, I am able to show that sediment ingestion constitutes the primary source of metal bioaccumulation by tadpoles. Not only were metal concentrations higher in tadpoles that were ingesting sediment, but they also had greater metal uptake rates compared to tadpoles that were only exposed to contaminated water. It was also determined that assimilation efficiencies were higher in tadpoles exposed to reference sediment compared to ones exposed to MacKay River sediment. Using toxicokinetic parameters defined by the uptake-elimination experiment, I developed a computational model using STELLATM system dynamics software to accurately estimate first order uptake and depuration rate constants for metals in exposed aquatic animals. The model estimated metal uptake and depuration kinetics with a mean relative error of 2.25 ± 0.93 % (±SE, n=9) for the uptake study and 2.53 ± 2.61 % (±SE, n=9) for the depuration study. With increased oil-sands production anticipated, we recommend continued monitoring of contaminants from oil-sands for the purpose of understanding the potential risks they may have on northern Alberta’s ecosystems.

We compare the use of stochastic dynamic programming (SDP), Neural Networks and a simple approximation rule for calculating the real option value of a flexible production system. While SDP yields the best solution to the problem, it is computationally prohibitive for larger settings. We test two approximations of the value function and show that the results are comparable to those obtained via SDP. These methods have the advantage of a high computational performance and of no restrictions on the type of process used. Our approach is not only useful for supporting large investment decisions, but it can also be applied in the case of routine decisions like the determination of the production program when stochastic profit margins occur. (author's abstract) / Series: Working Papers SFB "Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science"

Thesis (Ph.D)--Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2009. / Committee Chair: Pritchett, Amy R.; Committee Member: Clarke, John-Paul; Committee Member: Cross, Stephen; Committee Member: Endsley, Mica; Committee Member: Goldsman, David. Part of the SMARTech Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Collection.

Despite the continuous need to enhance the value of public services, information systems projects in the public sector still underperform due to their high velocity of change and strategic ambiguity. Diverse studies have been carried out examining ‘project capabilities’ to contribute to the efficiency of information systems project management. However, most studies of project capabilities focus heavily on the project execution that aims for successful implementation of systems. This supplier-oriented approach leads to overlooking the significance of a project owner’s benefits realisation after implementing the information systems. Moreover, this formulation of project capabilities also does not distinguish between dynamic capabilities for benefits realisation and operational capabilities for project execution. For these reasons, the realisation of a project owner’s information systems benefits has still been far from satisfactory, in addition to having a poor rate of project success. In order to address this issue, this thesis develops a more nuanced perspective on project capabilities by distinguishing the dynamic capabilities of owners from the operational capabilities of suppliers and by developing the concept of owner dynamic capabilities. This is followed by analysis of the importance of benefits management as an owner dynamic capability. The aim of this study is to contribute to a deeper understanding of why public sector information systems projects are so challenging and how the project owner’s information systems benefits can be accelerated. A content analysis method was adopted, and 10 years of National Audit Office Value-for-Money reports were analysed covering 31 information systems projects. Theoretically the concept of ‘owner dynamic capabilities’ is introduced, and the experience of UK central government information systems projects is empirically reviewed. The results bring a key implication by showing the significance of benefits management as a distinctive ‘project back-end’ owner dynamic capability. This thesis makes three main contributions to the current literature in information systems project and benefits management. First, the concept of owner dynamic capability is introduced and theorised based on a unique data set of major public sector information systems projects. Second, the importance of project back-end capability is revealed as a distinctive dynamic capability, which owners require to move their information systems investment from practical completion (the system works as expected) to beneficial use (the system delivers the expected business benefits). Third, the key findings provide the future research agenda for project management disciplines.

A modeling framework to evaluate the costs and benefits of implementation of Controller Pilot Data Link Communication (CPDLC), and Air Traffic Management (ATM) decision support tools is proposed in this paper. The benefit/cost evaluation is carried out for four key alternatives namely alternative A: Do nothing scenario (only voice channel), alternative B: Voice channel supplemented with CPDLC, alternative C: Alternative B with ATM tools in a non-integrated scenario and finally alternative D: Alternative B with ATM tools in an integrated scenario. It is a bi-level model that captures the linkages between various technologies at a lower microscopic level using a daily microscopic model (DATSIM) and transfers the measures of effectives to a higher macroscopic level. DATSIM stands for Data Link and Air Traffic Technologies SIMulation and it simulates air traffic in the enroute sector and terminal airspace for a single day and captures the measures of effectiveness at a microscopic level and feeds its output to the macroscopic annual model which then runs over the entire life cycle of the system. Airspace dwell time benefit data from the microscopic model is regressed into three dimensional benefit surfaces as a function of the equipage level of aircraft and aircraft density and embedded into the macroscopic model. The main function of the annual model is to ascertain economic viability of any deployment schedule or alternative over the entire life cycle of the system. The life cycle cost model is composed of four modules namely: Operational benefits module, Safety benefit module,Technology cost module and Training cost module. Analysis using the model showed that an enroute sector gets congested at aircraft densities greater 630 per day. This is mainly because the controller workload gets saturated at that traffic volume per day. Benefits realized in alternatives B, C and D as compared to alternative A increased exponentially at traffic densities greater than 630 i.e. when controller workload for alternative A becomes saturated. / Master of Science

Pricing decision support systems have been developed in order to help retail companies optimise the prices they set when selling their goods and services. This research aims to enhance the essential forecasting and optimisation techniques that underlie these systems. This is first done by applying the method of Dynamic Linear Models in order to provide sales forecasts of a higher accuracy compared with current methods. Secondly, the method of Support Vector Regression is used to forecast future competitor prices. This new technique aims to produce forecasts of greater accuracy compared with the assumption currentlyused in pricing decision support systems that each competitor's price will simply remain unchanged. Thirdly, when competitor prices aren't forecasted, a new pricing optimisation technique is presented which provides the highest guaranteed profit. Existing pricing decision support systems optimise price assuming that competitor prices will remain unchanged but this optimisation can't be trusted since competitor prices are never actually forecasted. Finally, when competitor prices are forecasted, an exhaustive search of a game-tree is presented as a new way to optimise a retailer's price. This optimisation incorporates future competitor price moves, something which is vital when analysing the success of a pricing strategy but is absent from current pricing decision support systems. Each approach is applied to the forecasting and optimisation of daily retail vehicle fuel pricing using real commercial data, showing the improved results in each case.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-17T15:48:09Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 FernandoHLS_DISSERT.pdf: 2616798 bytes, checksum: 22d85c8d781aecef20ff0906635a692b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-08-05 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior / One way to deal with the high complexity of current software systems is through selfadaptive systems. Self-adaptive system must be able to monitor themselves and their environment, analyzing the monitored data to determine the need for adaptation, decide how the adaptation will be performed, and finally, make the necessary adjustments. One way to perform the adaptation of a system is generating, at runtime, the process that will perform the adaptation. One advantage of this approach is the possibility to take into account features that can only be evaluated at runtime, such as the emergence of new components that allow new architectural arrangements which were not foreseen at design time. In this work we have as main objective the use of a framework for dynamic generation of processes to generate architectural adaptation plans on OSGi environment. Our main interest is evaluate how this framework for dynamic generation of processes behave in new environments / Uma forma de lidar com a elevada complexidade dos sistemas de software atuais ? atrav?s de sistemas autoadaptativos. Sistema autoadaptativos devem ser capazes de monitorar a si mesmos e ao seu ambiente, analisar os dados monitorados para determinar a necessidade de adapta??o, decidir como a adapta??o ser? realizada e, por fim, realizar as adapta??es necess?rias. Uma das maneiras de realizar a adapta??o de um sistema ? gerar, em tempo de execu??o, o processo que ir? executar a adapta??o. Uma vantagem dessa abordagem ? a possibilidade de levar em considera??o caracter?sticas que s? podem ser avaliadas em tempo de execu??o, como por exemplo, o surgimento de novos componentes que possibilitem novos arranjos arquiteturais que n?o foram previstos em tempo de projeto. Neste trabalho, temos como principal objetivo a utiliza??o de um framework de gera??o din?mica de processos para gerar planos de adapta??o arquiteturais sobre o ambiente OSGi. Nosso principal interesse consiste em verificar como esse framework de gera??o din?mica de processos se comporta em novos ambientes

In an ever-changing world of work Absa, as a business, is faced with various challenges including the continuous development of skills. Due to technological advancements, eLearning can provide a mechanism to rapidly build the required strategic and tactical skills that the organisation needs. This study explored the challenge of articulating the contribution of eLearning to business performance in an unbounded way. The study focused on the creation of knowledge about how the contribution of eLearning to business performance can be improved. In the process of knowledge creation, the study focused on identifying the point of value creation between Business and an eLearning intervention. This point of value creation can be seen as a leverage point. Systems Thinking was implemented as an approach in order to identify the leverage point. The following research objectives were defined: · To identify the driver problem that prevents eLearning from improving business performance. · To design the systems dynamic model that represents the driver problem. · To identify the leverage point within the systems dynamic model. · To reflect on the effect that the behaviour of the individuals, participating in the research process, has on the research inquiry. The sample of 28 focus group participants was selected from two specific divisions of Absa – the eChannels: Contact Centre and the Learning and Development Department. This sample consisted of Operational Management, Team Leaders, Contact Centre Consultants and learning design experts. Executive Management was excluded from the focus groups, but was included in the process as verifiers. This created an opportunity for Executive Management to voice their opinions. The results of the study indicate that the leverage point for successful contribution of eLearning to business performance is … A shared mental model of expectations between the participating stakeholders. Once Business and the Learning and Development Department start going through the constructive cycle of the systems dynamic model repeatedly, they will continuously build the shared mental model of expectations. This cycle will also build on the: 1) Level of visible support of the line managers; 2) Level of clarity of business needs to all relevant stakeholders; 3) Number of requests from business for eLearning opportunities; and 4) Level of awareness and understanding of appropriate eLearning interventions per target population. The effect of the positive reinforcement of the recurring cycle will ensure that eLearning continuously contributes to business performance. During the study the effect of the research process on the focus group participants as well as the effect of the focus group participants on the research process was also accounted for. Observers reflected on the behaviour of the focus group participants and found that their opinions and thought processes influenced the outcome of the study. The focus group participants felt that they had learnt something new, that the tasks set to the groups was clear and that the topics they had learnt most about were ‘systems thinking’ followed by the ’ relationship between eLearning and business performance’. Copyright / Thesis (PhD (Curriculum Studies))--University of Pretoria, 2004. / Curriculum Studies / unrestricted

No description available.