Pluvial flood is a natural hazard that severely threatens people’s property and safety. With the development of algorithms and computer technologies, numerical modeling has emerged as an effective tool for predicting the impacts of floods. Despite being one of the most costly types of floods in West Africa, pluvial flooding has not been studied as extensively as riverine flooding, probably because modeling runoff across urban areas remains a challenge. Recently, a module based on the SCS Curve Number Method is incorporated in the open-source software TELEAMC-2D, which provides a possibility to model the infiltration process dynamically. TELEMAC-2D is one of the first hydraulic models to consider hydrologic parameters. Although the update is expected to increase the suitability of TELAMC-2D in pluvial flood modeling, the infiltration routine has not yet been tested in a real situation in a semi-arid area. This study aims to investigate the capability of TELEMAC-2D in simulating the rainfall-runoff process during a pluvial flood event in a semi-arid urban area, Niamey city in west Africa. Due to the lack of calibration data, a hydrological model SWAT is used to evaluate the performance of TELEMAC-2D. Through the comparison between the runoffs generated by the two models, it is found that TELEMAC-2D has a similar trend with SWAT in runoff simulation. However, TELEMAC-2D significantly overestimates the runoff magnitude despite having the same SCS values as SWAT. The reason for the overestimation is TELEMAC-2D that does not properly consider evaporation. Two suggestions are made to improve pluvial floods simulations using TELEMAC-2D in semi-arid areas: 1) couple TELEMAC-2D with a hydrologic model, and use net rainfall generated by the hydrologic model as precipitation input; 2) provide functions in infiltration subroutine that calculate rainfall abstractions by other hydrologic phenomena in addition to the infiltration process.

This study investigates the complex flow structure generated by riparian emergent vegetation along the edge of floodplain. Detailed velocity and boundary shear stress measurements were carried out for various arrangements of emergent rigid cylindric rods of 3 mm, 6 mm and 9 mm diameters and for three different rod densities. In addition, the impact of foliage on the flow field was assessed during a series of experiments where brushes were used instead of smooth rods. The results of these new experiments are first presented. In addition to the laboratory data, field data was obtained through Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler measurements for two flood events in a stretch of the river Rhône that can be approximated to a straight compound channel with vegetated banks. The analysis of the flow structure highlights the presence of strong secondary circulation and increased vorticity on the river banks. The rods on the edge of the floodplain increase significantly flow resistance, reducing velocity and decreasing boundary shear stress. Flow rate was seen to decrease with increasing vegetative density for all cases except when foliage was added. This suggests that an optimum threshold density, for which a smaller density would lead to an increased flow rate might exist. Wakes trailing downstream of the vegetation stem, planform coherent structures advected between the main channel and the floodplain, and eddying motion in the flow due to enhanced turbulence anisotropy are among the defining patterns observed in the studied compound channel flows with one line of emergent vegetation along the edge of the floodplain. The Shiono and Knight Method (SKM) was modified in order to account for the increased turbulence activity due to the rods. The drag force term was introduced in the same way as in the work of Rameshwaran and Shiono (2007). However, a new term was added to the transverse shear stress term in the form of an Elder formulation, incorporating a friction drag coefficient which can be derived from the experimental data. In this proposed version, the advection term was set to zero. Another version of the SKM, similar to Rameshwaran and Shiono (2007), was also tested with the addition of a local drag friction only applied in the rod region. The proposed SKM version without the advection term was favored as it can be more closely related to the experimental data and to physical processes. Finally, the capabilities of Telemac-2D were tested against the experimental data for various turbulence models. The Large Eddy Simulation turbulence model highlighted some unsteady flow patterns that were observed during experiments, while satisfactorily predicting the lateral velocity and boundary shear stress distributions.

Wetlands are dynamic ecosystems and important sources of natural resources that provide a large array of ecosystem services. Unfortunately, most wetlands are threatened by human and natural stressors, such as damming, irrigation, water abstraction, climate change and variability that compromise the sustainability of the whole system. The Inner Niger Delta (IND), Mali, West Africa, is one of the biggest floodplains in the world, has a vast natural resource that attracts many people to live in and around the delta. The IND is considered a hub of human activities that include agriculture, fishing, transport, and tourism and plays an important role in promoting sustainable development for food security, water management, and the environment. As for most wetlands in the world, the very existence of the IND is at stake with the ever-increasing number of dams and irrigation schemes that are built to feed the growing population in the region. Given the fragility of the system and the multiplicity of water uses in the IND, the current knowledge of the flood dynamics and its relation to ecosystem services and the productivity of economic activity is insufficient. There is no operational hydrodynamic model of the IND, and the Malian authorities rely on simplified models and empirical relations for water resources management in the area. This thesis contributes to a better water resources management of the IND by a) developing the first 2D hydrodynamic model based on a triangular adaptative mesh of the IND that performs well despite the poor quality of available topographic/bathymetric data b) developing an innovative way of accounting for the strong hysteresis phenomenon in the IND in the hydrodynamic modeling that allowed a better reproduction of the hydraulic connectivity between important lakes and the main river and c) developing the first non-stationary relationship between the water levels at a reference station and the flooded area in the IND. The first part of the thesis deals with the challenge of developing a hydrodynamic model using only two low-resolution satellite-derived Digital Elevation Models: the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), which has a 30m horizontal resolution, and the Multi-Error-Removed Improved-Terrain (MERIT). Given the low vertical accuracy of global DEMs, another DEM was derived using the waterline method, by combining water extent map from satellite images and local water level information. Channel depths were approximated using the hydraulic geometric relationship methods, while the friction coefficient was derived from the global land-use class classification (GLCC) data. The river network was extracted from the water extent map corresponding to the lowest water level. Six different hydrodynamic models were created by varying the DEM and downstream boundary conditions. Each of the models was calibrated for discharge and water levels. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) was finally used to combine the outputs of all six hydrodynamic models into one robust simulation. In the second part, the effect of hysteresis at the downstream boundary condition of the hydrodynamic model was examined. Existing hydrodynamic models of the IND use a static stage-discharge relationship as a downstream boundary condition during both the rise and recession of the flood, leading to potential inaccuracies in the simulation of the flood extent. This paper explores the improvement in the simulation of the flood and connectivity dynamics resulting from the use of a looped rating curve at the downstream boundary of a hydrodynamic model of the IND. The hysteresis effect is integrated into the rating curve using two methods, one based on dimensionless discharges and levels (DLRC) and the other based on the modified Jones formula (MJRC). Results show that the hysteresis effect is better represented using DLRC and that simulations using any of the modified rating curves improves the accuracy of floodplain extent simulations in the areas close to the downstream station, as well as the timing of the connectivity of the river system to one important lake in the IND. The improvement in water level simulation decreases steadily with distance from the downstream boundary of the modeled area. The third part of the thesis deals with the development of an improved relation between inundation extent and water levels in the IND. Accurate knowledge of the flooded extent considered crucial for the proper management of natural resources in the IND. Several authors have developed empirical relationships between water levels at key stations in the IND and the flooded extent in an attempt to provide simple tools to link hydraulic parameters to the performance socio-economic activities in the IND. However, simulations from a hydrodynamic model of the IND showed that the relationship between water levels and the inundation extents varies greatly from year to year, and cannot be adequately captured by static formulas. First, it is demonstrated in this paper that if the maximum water level area is known in advance, accurate relationships between water levels and inundation extents can be derived. In the second part of the paper, stepwise regression is used to develop a function that can forecast maximum water levels at Akka using observed streamflow and precipitation upstream of the Delta. The combination of the two results allows a realtime estimation of the inundated area in the IND using observed water levels, precipitation, and streamflow.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第24593号 / 工博第5099号 / 新制||工||1976(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 角 哲也, 准教授 竹門 康弘, 准教授 Kantoush Sameh / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

Flood risk assessment in urban areas necessitates the utilization of advanced modeling strategies to accurately depict inundation patterns and potential impacts on communities and infrastructure. This study investigates the impacts of varying 2D modeling strategies on flood risk assessment in the context of the Garonne River flood risk prevention plan. The research focuses on building 2D hydraulic models for the Garonne and Ariège rivers using Telemac 2D, supplemented by models for their tributaries on HEC-RAS. Following calibration, the 1875 reference flood event is simulated, sensitivity analyses were conducted on downstream boundary conditions, Strickler coefficient for the floodplain, and discharge parameters. The results reveal significant impacts of these parameters on the final hazard maps, underscoring the importance of thoughtful consideration in model calibration and parameter selection. It also questions the strategy to base the assessment on an extreme historical flood event with little data to back up the accuracy of the results, or favoring a less extreme event that will lead more accurate results, but with maybe less security.  The study highlights the critical role of high precision topography, particularly in flat and urban areas, where traditional discharge data may be lacking, and precipitation-based methods may prove less effective. The choice of modeling software also emerges as a key factor influencing the accuracy of flood hazard assessments, with variations in parameters and computation methods yielding differing outcomes.  Overall, this research underscores the complex interplay between modeling strategies, parameter selection, and topographic characteristics in urban flood risk assessment. It emphasizes the need for a nuanced approach in choosing flood events for modeling, balancing the availability of data with the accuracy and reliability of results. / Riskbedömning av översvämningar i stadsområden kräver användning av avancerade modelleringsstrategier för att korrekt beskriva översvämningsmönster och potentiella effekter på samhällen och infrastruktur. I denna studie undersöks effekterna av olika 2D- modelleringsstrategier på bedömningen av översvämningsrisker i samband med planen för förebyggande av översvämningsrisker i Garonnefloden. Forskningen fokuserar på att bygga hydrauliska 2D-modeller för floderna Garonne och Ariège med Telemac 2D, kompletterat med modeller för deras bifloder i HEC-RAS.  Efter kalibrering simuleras 1875 års referensflöde, känslighetsanalyser utförs på nedströms gränsvillkor, Strickler-koefficienten för översvämningsslätten och flödesparametrar. Resultaten visar att dessa parametrar har en betydande inverkan på de slutliga riskkartorna, vilket understryker vikten av noggranna överväganden vid modellkalibrering och val av parametrar.  Studien belyser den kritiska roll som högupplöst topografi spelar, särskilt i platta och urbana områden, där traditionella flödesdata kan saknas och nederbördsbaserade metoder kan vara mindre effektiva. Valet av modelleringsprogramvara framstår också som en nyckelfaktor som påverkar noggrannheten i bedömningen av översvämningsrisker, med variationer i parametrar och beräkningsmetoder som ger olika resultat.  Sammantaget understryker denna forskning det komplexa samspelet mellan modelleringsstrategier, val av parametrar och topografiska egenskaper vid riskbedömning av översvämningar i städer.  Den betonar behovet av ett nyanserat tillvägagångssätt när man väljer översvämningshändelser för modellering, och balanserar tillgången på data med resultatens noggrannhet och tillförlitlighet.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第22052号 / 工博第4633号 / 新制||工||1722(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 角 哲也, 准教授 Sameh Kantoush, 准教授 竹門 康弘 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM