This thesis within Industrial Economics and Applied Mathematics examines the term commodity currency. The thesis delves into analysing the characteristics and consequences of such a currency through a macroeconomic perspective while discussing previous studies within the matter. The applied mathematical statistics section audits the correlation between the currency and the commodities of the exporting country through a time series regression. The regression is based on the currency as the dependent variable and the commodities represent the covariates. Furthermore, a trading strategy is developed to see if a profit can be made on the foreign exchange market when looking at the commodity price movements. / Det här kandidatexamensarbetet är skrivet inom industriell ekonomi och tillämpad matematik och granskar termen råvaruvaluta (commodity currency). Uppsatsen analyserar, utifrån ett makroekonomiskt perspektiv, karaktärsdragen och konsekvenserna av en sådan valuta, samtidigt som den diskuterar tidigare studier inom ämnet. Delen inom tillämpad matematik undersöker korrelationen mellan valutan och råvarorna som landet exporterar genom en tidsserieregression. Regressionen är baserad på valutan som responsvariabel samtidigt som råvarorna representerar kovariaterna. Den färdiga modellen används sedan i en handelsstrategi som försöker förutspå växelkursens rörelser genom att titta på råvarornas rörelser.

投資高報酬的背後往往隱含著高風險，尤以選擇權投資最為明顯，在高槓桿的誘因背後，也同時具有複雜性高的操作難度，因此為達到不同風險及報酬的抵換效果，各種選擇權交易策略因此應運而生。其基本觀念為：透過不同選擇權基本策略(Building Block)的組合，來配合不同的市況預測，以達到投資人最適的損益特徵。 　　選擇權交易策略一般分為基本部位、價差部位、混合部位、合成部位及避險部位，其中由於交易條件與交易成本的限制，一般投資人多使用前三種選擇權策略進行交易，然而，對於初入市的投資人而言，常侷限於策略的組合方式，反而忽略風險與報酬的本質，因此於選擇權的投資往往導致損失。 　　本研究以台指選擇權為例，旨在討論選擇權三種常用策略之市場實證，透過固定進場時點的設定、履約價格的調整以及持有至結算日的原則，來計算不同策略於2003~2005年之投資績效。並討論三種策略在獲勝率、到期損益、報酬率及報酬變異情形。 　　整體而言，從事基本策略的買方，不論是買進買權或買進賣權，在各個履約價格的獲勝機率均極小，也同時顯示從事基本策略的賣方仍然在台指選擇權市場中佔有優勢。價差策略的買方勝率亦遠小於賣方。混合策略中的賣出勒式策略則顯示極優的獲勝機率及累積績效，本策略也是一般期貨自營商或機構法人常用的策略。 　　本研究之結論可作為投資者建構選擇權策略組合之參考，透過定時定價的進場能提高獲勝機率，更能貼近台指選擇權市場實際情況，獲取更好的利潤。

In this paper we will be studying and backtesting a particular investment strategy by buying and holding dividend stocks. We think dividend stock is an important type of investment to investors and portfolio managers because of its cash implications, especially in a high volatility equity market. Furthermore, we think that consistency in a company’s ability and willingness in distributing dividends to its shareholders is a strong indicator of its financial strength and operational success. How portfolio managers should pick the best performing dividend stocks would then become an important issue. In this paper, we will be testing the historical performance of a portfolio of dividend stocks that we construct and adjust based on a list of parameters associated with companies’ operational performance, cash position, and dividend yield. Hence, the main way we select stocks in the portfolio is based on fundamental analysis. Our research is conducted relying exclusively on the Wharton Research Data Services database (WRDS). In addition to evaluating the investment attractiveness of our portfolio, the strategy may also have implications regarding several other topics including the semi-strong form market efficiency and active portfolio management. Therefore, this paper covers also potential benefits to be gained from the strategy other than its investment payoff.

In this thesis, a new trading strategy is proposed. By the help of quantile regression, the conditional distribution functions of stock market returns are estimated. Based on the knowledge of the distribution the strategy produced buying and selling signals which together with a weight function derived from exponential moving averages determines how much and when to buy or sell. The strategy performs better than the market in terms of absolute return and the Sharpe ratio in-sample, but it does not provide satisfactory results out-of-sample.

In the introduction, this dissertation about "Psychology of an investor on the Forex market" introduces to the reader the prerequisites for trading on the foreign exchange market. On a theoretical level, it deals mostly with fundamental, technical as well as psychological analysis of prediction of development of exchange rates on the Foreign Exchange Market. Theoretical part also includes an outline of basic criteria for choosing a Forex broker and introduction of a trading platform. Practical part of the dissertation focuses on comparing and choosing a broker, plus the process for opening a real trading account; creating a trading plan and strategy, which will be used to apply different tools and indicators of technical analysis of inter-day trading of EUR/USD pair. In the conclusion, trading system created by myself is evaluated and psychological phenomenon affecting investors' decision-making during real Forex trading. This dissertation deals only with Spot Forex market, because trading through FX brokers is done on the Spot market.

This thesis has two main objectives. It attempts to describe the process of developing an intraday discretionary trading strategy based on technical analysis and to create through the process an intraday discretionary strategy for speculative trading of contracts for difference on the OTC market. The theoretical part of the thesis is divided into three chapters providing the necessary knowledge for creation of an intraday discretionary trading strategy in the practical part of the thesis. The emphasis is put on the description of different tools and methods technical traders usually use in their strategies. The development process of the strategy is divided into three parts which are Strategy Creation, Backtest and Optimization. These parts are further divided into smaller sections dealing with different issues of the strategy development process. The final outcome of the work is structured development process of discretionary trading strategies and also highly profitable intraday discretionary strategy for trading of Gold based contracts for difference.

This work is about trading futures markets. It defines rules of two different intraday strategies with the same basic trading idea on e-mini NASDAQ 100 market. First strategy is more mechanical, second is more discrete. These strategies are tested via backtest and papertrading. The results of tests are evaluated and based on that is chosen one strategy, which is then applied on live trading. Results from live trading are compared with the results of previous tests for a purpose finding a difference between them and identifying the causes of these differences.

Product quality is an often-overlooked factor in the financial analysis of video games. Quality measurements have been proven to work as a reliable predictor of sales while also directly influencing performance in financial markets. If markets are efficient in reflecting new information, perception of video game quality will lead to a rational response. This thesis examines the market reaction to this information set. The release structure in the video game industry allows for a direct observation of the isolated quality effect through third-party reviews. These reviews form an objective measurement of game quality without having other revealing characteristics, as all other information is released prior to these reviews. The possibility to exploit this unique case motivates the analysis through multiple empirical designs. Results from a multivariate regression model show a statistically significant positive effect of higher quality on short-term returns over all models. The release of a lower quality game reduces returns only for high-profile games. Both of these results are confirmed by the results from a rules-based trading strategy. These effects subside in the face of longer holding periods and higher exposure. This thesis finds sufficient evidence that video game quality should be an important factor in the analysis of video game companies. At the same time, these effects are only persistent in the short-time validating an efficient response to new information by financial investors.

Объектом исследования данной работы являются методы проектирования информационной архитектуры баз знаний. Основным методом проектирования является архитектурный метод. Также в данном исследовании использовался графический и макетно-графический метод для создания схем, описывающий разные уровни информационной архитектуры и макетов для визуальной демонстрации интерфейса системы. Предметом исследования является информационная архитектура базы знаний, использующаяся в организации. Данное исследование заключается в проработке гипотезы о том, что при использовании сотрудниками базы знаний, на кафедре института значительно сократится время на поиск, актуализацию, пополнение и обеспечение хранения рабочей и отчетной документации. Данное исследование представляет собой обобщение теоретико- и практико- ориентированной работы в области проектирования информационных систем оптимизации рабочего времени педагогического состава, которая может быть использована для повышения качества деятельности образовательного учреждения. Первичными данными является перечень методов и способов проектирования информационной архитектуры. Также для описания взаимодействия информационных систем с организацией использовались данные о кафедре в состоянии «как есть», то есть о функциях, структуре и времени, затрачиваемом на рабочие процессы, на основе которых была составлена модель AS-IS. В результате была составлена архитектура адаптивной базы знаний, которая может использоваться для повышения эффективности процессов на кафедре института. Анализ процессов, осуществляемых с использованием базы знаний и календарного планировщика и без их использования, подтвердил гипотезу о пользе внедрения новых информационных систем в образовательное учреждение. Также была предложена адаптация внедрения данных систем в информационную систему института с помощью бесплатных инструментов. / The object of research of this work is the methods of designing the information architecture of knowledge bases. The main method of design is the architectural method. Also in this study, a graphical and layout-graphical method was used to create diagrams describing different levels of information architecture and layouts for visual demonstration of the system interface. The subject of the study is the information architecture of the knowledge base used in the organization. This study consists in working out the hypothesis that when employees use the knowledge base, the time for searching, updating, replenishment and storage of working and reporting documentation will be significantly reduced at the department of the Institute. This study is a generalization of theoretical and practice-oriented work in the field of designing information systems for optimizing the working hours of teaching staff, which can be used to improve the quality of the educational institution. The primary data is a list of methods and methods for designing information architecture. Also, to describe the interaction of information systems with the organization, data was used about the department in the "as is" state, that is, about the functions, structure and time spent on work processes, on the basis of which the AS-IS model was compiled. As a result, the architecture of an adaptive knowledge base was compiled, which can be used to improve the efficiency of processes at the department of the Institute. The analysis of the processes carried out using the knowledge base and calendar planner and without their use confirmed the hypothesis about the benefits of introducing new information systems in an educational institution. It was also proposed to adapt the implementation of these systems into the information system of the Institute using free tools.

As regras definidas pelo Decreto 5.163/2004 trazem incentivos e penalidades aos Distribuidores no processo de apresentação de suas declarações de necessidades de compra de energia ao Ministério de Minas e Energia. Nesse sentido, é importante para os Geradores estabelecer uma metodologia robusta para prever o comportamento dos agentes de distribuição com confiabilidade razoável, de forma a permitir uma preparação adequada para os leilões de que pretendem participar e, adicionalmente, simular os cenários pós-leilões de modo a compreender os efeitos dos preços e volumes contratados no ambiente regulado sobre as condições de contratação no ambiente livre. Este trabalho propõe-se a analisar as referidas regras, apresentando um modelo de otimização utilizando Algoritmos Genéticos que simula o comportamento das distribuidoras, obtendo-se uma importante ferramenta de apoio à definição de estratégias de comercialização de uma empresa geradora. / The rules defined by the Decree 5.163/2004 bring incentives and penalties for Distribution companies to present their power purchase necessity declaration for the Ministry of Mines and Energy. In this sense, it is important for the Generation companies to establish a robust methodology for predicting Distribution companies behavior with enough accountability in order to allow an adequate preparation for the auctions in which those agents intend to participate and, additionally, simulate post auctions scenarios in order to understand the effects of prices and contracted volumes in the regulated environment over the free market contracting conditions. This work is supposed to analyze those rules, presenting an optimization model using Genetic Algorithms, which simulates Distribution companies behavior, getting an important power trading strategy decision support tool for a Generation Company.