This study contributes to the debate on whether fundamental analysis and technical analysis techniques can be used jointly in making investment decisions. Extant literature on fundamental and technical analysis techniques has frequently focused on analysing each of the valuation techniques independently of one another. In this study we construct a model that integrates both fundamental and technical analysis variables (hybrid model) to determine whether the hybrid model can have a superior explanatory power to models based on each of the valuation techniques in isolation. This study is based on all ordinary shares that have been listed on the JSE main board between the 2002 and 2012 fiscal years. Testing rejects the complimentary nature of fundamental and technical analysis techniques by showing that the technical analysis model has a superior explanatory power to both the hybrid model and the fundamental analysis model. We also demonstrate that JSE-listed stocks do not exhibit momentum or contrarian effects with respect to return performances and that the fundamental analysis variables that play a significant role in explaining stock price movements of JSE-listed stocks are the book value per share, cash flow per share, earnings per share and dividends per share.

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In this thesis, I develop a valuation model to price convertible bonds with call provision. Convertible bonds are hybrid instruments that possess both equity and debt characteristics. The purpose of this study is to build a pricing model for convertible and callable bonds and to compare the mathematical results of the model with real world market performance. I construct a two-factor valuation model, in which both the interest rate and the stock price are stochastic. I derive the partial differential equation of two stochastic variables and state the final and boundary conditions of the convertible bond using the mean reversion model on interest rate. Because it is difficult to obtain a closed solution for the American convertible bond due to its structural complexity, I use the binomial tree model to value the convertible bond by constructing the interest rate tree and stock price tree. As a convertible bond is a hybrid security of debt and equity, I combine the interest rate tree and stock price tree into one single tree. Default risk is added to the valuation tree to represent the event of a default. The model is then tested and compared with the performance of the Canadian convertible bond market. Moreover, I study the duration, convexity and Greeks of convertible bonds. These are important risk metrics in the portfolio management of the convertible bond to measure risks linked to interest rate, equity, volatility and other market factors. I investigate the partial derivative of the value of the convertible bond with respect to various parameters, such as the interest rate, stock price, volatility of the interest rate, volatility of the stock price, mean reversion of the interest rate and dividend yield of the underlying stock. A convertible bond arbitrage portfolio is constructed to capture the abnormal returns from the Delta hedging strategy and I describe the risks associated with these returns. The portfolio is created by matching long positions in convertible bonds, with short positions in the underlying stock to create a Delta hedged convertible bond position, which captures income and volatility.

This thesis focuses on description of methods of technical analysis, characteristics of foreign exchange markets and it also mentions the efficient market theory. The aim is to use the knowledge of technical analysis to select one simple trading strategy and through its optimalization to discover a functional and efficient trading system. In order to enable followers to continue in optimalization, it is also described the optimalization process in detail with probable obstacles. There are also mentioned other different and possible ways for further testing of this strategy.

From efficient market theory we know that there is no such a thing as a free lunch. If you want higher returns then you also have to take on higher risk. The critical question technical analysis has to answer therefore becomes, does technical analysis (TA) provide an investor with an edge in the stock market? To answer this question empirically data was investigated for the Standard and Poor’s-500 Index for a twenty years time period from 1986 to 2006. Two different portfolios were constructed. The portfolios were named Hugin with a high time resolution a Munin with a lower time resolution. A simple 30 period MA cross strategy with optimized stop-losses were tested on the two portfolios. The stop-losses were optimized on the first ten years 1986-1996 in order to make the backtesting more realistic. The conclusion was that neither Hugin nor did Munin produce abnormal returns without the optimized stop losses. When the stop losses were optimized, Hugin but not Munin provided an investor with slightly better return than a long position. However Hugin’s returns were highly sensitive to the assumed level of price slippage and transaction costs. The conclusion to be drawn is therefore that investing based only on a simple 30 periods moving average crossover investment strategy seams not to be the best way to manage hard-earned money.

<p>From efficient market theory we know that there is no such a thing as a free lunch. If you want higher returns then you also have to take on higher risk. The critical question technical analysis has to answer therefore becomes, does technical analysis (TA) provide an investor with an edge in the stock market? To answer this question empirically data was investigated for the Standard and Poor’s-500 Index for a twenty years time period from 1986 to 2006.</p><p>Two different portfolios were constructed. The portfolios were named Hugin with a high time resolution a Munin with a lower time resolution. A simple 30 period MA cross strategy with optimized stop-losses were tested on the two portfolios. The stop-losses were optimized on the first ten years 1986-1996 in order to make the backtesting more realistic.</p><p>The conclusion was that neither Hugin nor did Munin produce abnormal returns without the optimized stop losses. When the stop losses were optimized, Hugin but not Munin provided an investor with slightly better return than a long position. However Hugin’s returns were highly sensitive to the assumed level of price slippage and transaction costs. The conclusion to be drawn is therefore that investing based only on a simple 30 periods moving average crossover investment strategy seams not to be the best way to manage hard-earned money.</p>

Darbo struktūra. Darbas sudarytas iš keturių skyrių. Pirmasis skyrius yra teorinis, kuriame pateikiama techninės analizės samprata, jos indikatorių pagrindinės grupės bei populiariausių indikatorių aprašymai, tiriami jau sukurti programiniai paketai Antrajame skyriuje pateikiami siūlymai kaip reikėtų vertinti techninės analizės indikatorių signalo stiprumą, kaip standartizuoti internetu gaunamus duomenis ir kodėl reikėtų atkreipti dėmesį į jų tikslumą. Pateikiamas konceptualus sistemos modelis. Trečiojoje dalyje analizuojami atliktų eksperimentų rezultatai, daromos apibendrinamosios išvados. Ketvirtojoje dalyje pateikiamas sukurtos informacinės sistemos aprašymas. Darbo pabaigoje pateikiamos konkrečios išvados ir pasiūlymai. Svarbiausia literatūra. Atliekant darbą buvo analizuojama Lietuvos ir užsienio mokslininkų literatūra techninės analizės temomis. Teorinį pagrindą sudaro moksliniai straipsniai, internetiniai šaltiniai apie techninės analizės indikatorius, bei jų panaudojimą prekyboje. Tyrimo metodai. Teorinės dalies rengimui buvo naudojamas mokslinės literatūros apibendrinimo bei analizės metodas. Jau sukurtos programinės įrangos analizei naudotas palyginimo metodas. Formuluojant darbo bei eksperimento išvadas buvo naudojamas sisteminės analizės metodas. Apibendrinimo - bendrų logistinių modelių savybių ir požymių nusakymui. Gautų rezultatų trumpa apžvalga, reikšmingumas. Atliekant techninės analizės indikatorių testavimus, būtina atsižvelgti į duomenų vientisumą bei... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / The theme of the final master‘s degree paper is: „ Information system for testing technical anglysis indicators in financial markets “. The main objective of this work was to create historical stock data maintenance system that could allow users to use it in back testing portfolios. Work consists of four major parts: theoretical, analysis, experimental and technical. In theoretical part we introduce stock markets and how technical analysis indicators are used. Technical analysis indicators are analyzed in analysis part. Also software that is already available on the market is discussed. In experimental part we analyze three chosen indicators and try to use them in portfolio back-testing on system that is being created. The results are discussed and some interesting conclusions are made. The last fourth part describes the information system that was created, technical specifications and such. The work consists of 73 pages. 30 sources of literature were used. To visualize work and analysis results, 38 pictures are included with 14 tables.

The principal aim of this graduation thesis is to characterize technical analysis including its application to chosen investment instrument. The begining of the thesis consists of the main investment approaches in the capital markets and their comparison with technical analysis. Afterwards, the definition and targets of technical analysis are given. Further, the work focuses on the Dow Theory as the main basis of the contemporary technical analysis and mentions other approaches in technical analysis. Then, the instruments of technical analysis are introduced. Graphical methods are only outlined whereas technical indicators are the focus of attention. There is the selection of twelve of them including their construction and usage. Finally, the application of chosen technical indicators belonging to chosen financial instrument is given and achieved results are commented.

DARBUTAS, Egidijus. (2011) Technine analize pagrįsta prekyba vertybiniais popieriais Baltijos vertybinių popierių biržoje. Magistro baigiamasis darbas. Kaunas: Vilnius Universitetas, Kauno Humanitarinis Fakultetas, Finansų ir apskaitos katedra. 56 p. SANTRAUKA RAKTINIAI ŽODŽIAI: akcijos, vertybiniai popieriai, techninė analizė, Nasdaq OMX Baltic. Magistrinio baigiamajame darbe yra nagrinėjama prekyba vertybiniais popieriais Baltijos šalių vertybinių popierių biržoje, taikant techninę analizę. Atlikta mokslinių straipsnių analizė rodo, kad taikant technine analizę galima prognozuoti kainų pokyčius ateityje. Remiantis autorių išvadomis galima teigti, jog techninės analizės tema Lietuvoje yra tikrai aktuali, todėl šiame darbe yra siekiama parodyti būtent techninės analizės tinkamumą, siekiant prognozuoti akcijų kainas Baltijos šalių vertybinių popierių rinkoje. Magistrinio baigiamojo darbo objektas yra Nasdaq OMX Baltic vertybinių popierių rinka. Darbo tikslas yra atrinkti techninės analizės modelius, tinkančius Nasdaq OMX Baltic vertybinių popierių rinkai. Siekiant šio tikslo, suformuoti tokie uždaviniai: 1) išnagrinėti techninės analizės sampratą, jos specifiką; 2) įvertinti techninės analizės ištirtumą Lietuvoje bei užsienyje; 3) pristatyti techninės analizės modelius; 4) įsitikinti ar techninė analizė padeda prognozuoti akcijų kainas Baltijos šalių vertybinių popierių biržoje; 5) nustatyti techninės analizės tinkamumą; 6) pateikti techninės analizės tinkamumo Baltijos... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / DARBUTAS, Egidijus. (2011) Trading based on technical analysis in securities in the Baltic Stock Exchange. MA Graduation Paper. Kaunas: Vilnius University, Kaunas Faculty of Humanities, Department of Finance and Accounting. 56 p. SUMMARY KEYWORDS: equities, securities, technical analysis, Nasdaq OMX Baltic. The aim of this thesis for Master’s is the trading of securities Baltic stock exchange, based on technical analysis. Accomplished articles research shows that using technical analysis it can predict future price movements. Based on the findings of authors can be said that the topic of technical analysis in Lithuania is really relevant, because this work is to show the suitability of particular technical analysis to forecast stock prices Baltic securities market. Master‘s final work subject is the Nasdaq OMX Baltic stock exchange. The aim is to select the technical analysis models which are suitable for the Nasdaq OMX Baltic stock exchange. In order to accomplish the goal of this work, these tasks need to be done: 1) analyze the technical analysis concept and it‘s specific; 2) evaluate the technical analysis investigations in Lithuania and in abroad; 3) introduce the technical analysis indicators; 4) make sure that technical analysis helps to predict stock prices in the Baltic stock exchanges; 5) determine the suitability of technical analysis; 6) present the evaluation of the suitability of a technical analysis in the Baltic stock exchange. The work is made out of three... [to full text]

Academic research has shown throughout the years the ability of technical indicators to convey predictive value, informational content, and practical use. The popularity of such studies goes in and out over the years and today is being recognized widely by behavioral economists. Automated technical analysis is said to detect geometric and nonlinear shapes in prices which ordinary time series methods would be unable to detect. Previous papers use smoothing estimators to detect such patterns. Our paper uses local polynomial regressions, digital image processing, and state of the art machine learning tools to detect the patterns. Our results show that they are nonrandom, convey informational value, and have some predictive ability. We validate our results with prior works using stocks from the Dow Jones Industrial Average for a sample period from 1925-2019 using daily price observations.