Submitted by Thiago Curado (tlcurado@gmail.com) on 2015-04-27T20:26:44Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Curado.pdf: 578449 bytes, checksum: dfeb58219bdc5802a75cdc91152f024c (MD5) / Rejected by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br), reason: Bom dia Thiago, Por favor, incluir a página de agradecimento e como o trabalho é em inglês é necessário o Abstract vir antes do Resumo. Att. Suzi 3799-7876 on 2015-04-28T11:54:19Z (GMT) / Submitted by Thiago Curado (tlcurado@gmail.com) on 2015-04-28T18:12:29Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Curado.pdf: 578450 bytes, checksum: 2f94ba41c57666b11eebe216d8941c44 (MD5) / Rejected by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br), reason: Thiago, Falta a folha de agradecimentos, pelo menos seu orientador é necessário agradecer. É uma página antes do abstract. Aguardo Grata. Suzi on 2015-04-28T18:55:09Z (GMT) / Submitted by Thiago Curado (tlcurado@gmail.com) on 2015-04-28T20:04:17Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Curado.pdf: 579686 bytes, checksum: f41554f1122e5984524dcf04b028082b (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2015-04-29T11:55:54Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Curado.pdf: 579686 bytes, checksum: f41554f1122e5984524dcf04b028082b (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-04-29T13:29:42Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Curado.pdf: 579686 bytes, checksum: f41554f1122e5984524dcf04b028082b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-03-27 / There is substantial evidence that terms of trade behavior are relevant to understand both the macroeconomic dynamics and the default risk of emerging markets. Nevertheless, the literature of sovereign debt that follows Eaton and Gerzovitz (1981) and Arellano (2008) has not yet adequately explored the connections between terms of trade and default incentives. We advance in this field, introducing terms of trade volatility to the model proposed by Mendoza and Yue (2012), where the sovereign debt decisions are linked to a general equilibrium model for the domestic economy. We find that an economy that faces stochastic terms of trade innovations can produce a consumption variability that highly exceeds the output variability, which is a key stylized fact of emerging markets business cycles. Our exercises also show that default episodes are driven by sudden shifts in the terms of trade but are no necessary related with bad times. / A evidência empírica aponta que Termos de Troca é uma variável relevante tanto para dinâmica macroeconômica como para o risco de default em países emergentes. No entanto, a literatura de dívida soberana baseada nos trabalhos de Eaton e Gerzovitz (1981) e Arellano (2008) ainda não explorou de forma adequada as conecções entre a dinâmica de termos de troca e incentivos ao default. Nós contribuímos nessa área, introduzindo volatilidade de Termos de Troca no modelo proposto por Mendoza e Yue (2012), no qual as decisões de dívida soberana são vinculadas à um modelo de equilíbrio geral para a economia doméstica. Nós encontramos que uma economia exposta à volatilidade dos termos de troca consegue produzir uma variabilidade do consumo que supera significativamente a variabilidade do produto, característica que constitui um fato estilizado chave de business cycles de países emergentes. Nossos exercícios também mostram que decisões de default são geradas por mudanças bruscas nos termos de troca, mas não necessariamente estão vinculados à estados ruins da economia.

<p>The relationship between increased productivity and improved standard of living is not a questioned statement on the global level, but does productivity growth necessarily lead to higher standard of living on the national level? Supported by empirical results it is suggested that a high relative productivity growth should not always be worth striving for, since it translates into decreased welfare, in terms of deteriorated terms of trade. This study attempts to examine the impact of relative productivity on the terms of trade in the OECD-countries and in Sweden, with an error-correction model. Further is an extension of the purpose made in order to estimate the impact of increased relative productivity growth on the welfare. The results suggest that the method for measuring productivity has a great impact on the findings, but concludes that a 1% higher relative labour productivity growth is associated with a 0.23% decline in the terms of trade.</p>

In this dissertation we use Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium DSGE) models to explain empirical regularities and policy implications related to (1) durable goods, interest rates and small open economy business cycles, (2) Terms-of-Trade (ToT) and economic fluctuations in small open economies and (3) Budget Stabilization Funds (BSFs) and States’ business cycles. In the first essay, we document that durable spending in developed small open economies constitutes a large share of their total income. Their spending is highly procyclical, sensitive to interest rates, and leads the business cycle. We address these regularities with a RBC model with durable goods. The model successfully replicates the observed business cycle regularities and explains many anomalies not explained in the existing literature. It also emphasizes the role of interest rates uncertainty in explaining the dynamics of the small open economies. The second essay addresses the impacts of the ToT fluctuation on the business cycles of various small open economies. We argue that differences in the degree of durability in domestic production and imports may make these economies more or less sensitive to an identical ToT shock. We found that economies with higher durability usually enjoy more stable business cycle comparing with economies with lower degree of durability. Differences in the persistence of the ToT do affect the dynamic of the external accounts but it cannot explain the observed differences business cycles across small open economies. In the last essay, we evaluate the economic impacts of the Budget Stabilization Funds (BSF) on State-level business cycles. We lay out a State economy RBC model in which a State’s government applies a designated saving rule consistent with households’ optimization. Given the suggested rule we find that the BDFs become a significant automatic stabilizer. It is not only mitigates the procyclicality of the government spending but it also smooth the State’s business cycle.

One of the central issues in international macroeconomics is relative price movements and their sources. One such price is the price of crude oil. An increase in oil price leads to a transfer of income from importing to exporting countries through a shift in terms of trade. The general mechanism by which oil prices affect the economic performance is well under-stood. However, the dynamics of these effects – especially the adjustment to the terms of trade – are uncertain. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of an increase in oil price on the terms of trade during the time period 1970 to 2004. The relationship between oil price and world business cycle as well as the relationship between oil price, GWP and Saudi Arabia’s export is also examined in this paper. The regression results show that an increase in oil price has a negative impact on terms of trade for the net importing country. Whether an increase in oil price has a positive or no effect at all on terms of trade for the net exporting country cannot be told form the regres-sion results.

The relationship between increased productivity and improved standard of living is not a questioned statement on the global level, but does productivity growth necessarily lead to higher standard of living on the national level? Supported by empirical results it is suggested that a high relative productivity growth should not always be worth striving for, since it translates into decreased welfare, in terms of deteriorated terms of trade. This study attempts to examine the impact of relative productivity on the terms of trade in the OECD-countries and in Sweden, with an error-correction model. Further is an extension of the purpose made in order to estimate the impact of increased relative productivity growth on the welfare. The results suggest that the method for measuring productivity has a great impact on the findings, but concludes that a 1% higher relative labour productivity growth is associated with a 0.23% decline in the terms of trade.

The subject of this study is to examine the determinants of the real exchange rate in Taiwan. The sample period is from the first quarter of 1982 to the second quarter of 2011, and the variables include the real exchange rate, terms of trade, productivity differential, the real oil price, reserve differential, real interest rate differential, and the net foreign assets of Taiwan and America. The empirical results show that there is no cointegration between the real exchange rate and independent variables. Using a VAR model, this study finds that although the central bank of Taiwan would intervenes the real exchange rate, the variable related to the economic growth is still significant. At 5% significance level, an increase in the productivity differential leads the real exchange rate to depreciate. In addition, from the result of the granger causality test, this study finds that there exists unidirectional causality from the productivity differential and central bank intervention respectively to the real exchange rate. The effect of central bank intervention on the real exchange rate only persists one period, and the effect of the productivity differential persists two more periods. Therefore, it can be concluded that when estimating the future real exchange rate, it may be useful to take the productivity differential into account.

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<p>One of the central issues in international macroeconomics is relative price movements and their sources. One such price is the price of crude oil. An increase in oil price leads to a transfer of income from importing to exporting countries through a shift in terms of trade. The general mechanism by which oil prices affect the economic performance is well under-stood. However, the dynamics of these effects – especially the adjustment to the terms of trade – are uncertain.</p><p>The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of an increase in oil price on the terms of trade during the time period 1970 to 2004. The relationship between oil price and world business cycle as well as the relationship between oil price, GWP and Saudi Arabia’s export is also examined in this paper.</p><p>The regression results show that an increase in oil price has a negative impact on terms of trade for the net importing country. Whether an increase in oil price has a positive or no effect at all on terms of trade for the net exporting country cannot be told form the regres-sion results.</p>

DC, Howard Univ., Dep. of Economics, Diss.--Washington, 1996. / Kopie, ersch. im Verl. UMI, Ann Arbor, Mich.

Abstract The euro area consists of several small open, fairly heterogeneous economies. The establishment of this common currency area greatly changed the macroeconomic interdependency between its member countries. This thesis examines the fundamental macroeconomic linkages and spillover effects between the monetary union member countries with the focus on the phenomena associated with the countries’ openness to international trade. This doctoral thesis consists of three essays. The first essay examines the impact of the implementation of a monetary union on international economic fluctuations. The essay finds that the implementation reverses the expenditure-switching effects between goods produced inside the monetary union, and helps to stabilize economic fluctuations. The second essay examines the effects of openness to international trade on a small monetary union. The essay shows howmovements in the monetary union’s exchange rate stabilize output fluctuations inside the monetary union and reduce the need for fiscal stabilization. The third essay argues that, under a non-coordinated optimal fiscal policy, government spending should focus on the stabilization of a local output gap and inflation, while union-wide aggregate fluctuations should be stabilized by a common independent monetary policy. The essay also shows how a suboptimal monetary policy increases the spillover effects of countryspecific shocks. / Tiivistelmä Tässä väitöskirjassa tutkitaan rahaliiton maiden välisiä makrotaloudellisia riippuvuussuhteita. Tutkimuksessa keskitytään erityisesti kansainvälisen kaupan ilmiöihin. Väitöskirja koostuu kolmesta erillisestä esseestä. Ensimmäisessä esseessä käsitellään rahaliiton perustamisen vaikutuksia kansainvälisen talouden dynamiikkaan. Tulosten mukaan rahaliiton perustaminen muuttaa vaihtosuhteen dynamiikkaa rahaliiton sisällä. Lisäksi rahaliiton muodostaminen vaimentaa jäsenmaiden makrotaloudellisia heilahteluita. Toisessa esseessä tutkitaan kansainvälisen kaupan merkitystä pienen rahaliiton tapauksessa. Havaitaan, että yhteisvaluutan kurssimuutokset tasapainottavat rahaliiton sisäisiä reaalitalouden muutoksia ja vähentävät tarvetta tasapainottaa taloutta finanssipolitiikan avulla. Kolmannessa esseessä osoitetaan, että rahaliiton jäsenvaltioiden harjoittaman itsenäisen finanssipolitiikan tulisi keskittyä kotimaisen inflaation ja tuotannon tasapainottamiseen. Yhteisen rahapolitiikan tulisi puolestaan tasapainottaa rahaliiton keskimääräisiä muutoksia. Tulosten mukaan epäoptimaalinen rahapolitiikka voimistaa maakohtaisten reaalitaloudellisten muutosten välittymistä muihin rahaliiton maihin.