Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:53Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Wendell Gomes Schmiedecke.pdf: 619717 bytes, checksum: 94fc273bce9584548d12e9f9ba12f34e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-10-28 / The objective of this work is to answer the following question: How we can explain the recent rise in the commodities prices, due to the entry of China in the international market and which are the tendencies for the next years? For this, the work initially will present the deterioration in terms of trade from Prebisch and Singer, with an evolution of this thought, as well as criticism of this thesys. Afterwards we will present the Chinese economy, as well his impact in the demand of raw-materials and food and in the production capacity of industrialized products, presenting impacts over the terms of trade in the worldwide scenario, after that, we will use the Enzo Grilli and Maw Cheng Yang series updated, to show the prices behavior of the main commodities, with a special focus in the high occurred in this prices in the period comprehended between the Chinese market overture to the worldwide economy until 2007, fact contrary to the Prebisch and Singer thesis. At least we will conclude the work answering the question object of this work / O objetivo deste trabalho é responder a seguinte questão: Como podemos explicar a alta recente do preço dos commodities, face a entrada da China no mercado internacional e quais as tendências para os próximos anos? Para isso, o trabalho inicialmente apresentará a tese de deterioração dos termos de troca de Prebisch e Singer, com uma evolução desse pensamento, bem como críticas a estas teses. Posteriormente apresentaremos a economia chinesa, bem como seu impacto sobre a demanda de matérias-primas e alimentos e na capacidade de produção de produtos industrializados, apresentando impactos sobre os termos de troca no cenário mundial, em seguida, utilizaremos a série de preços formulada por Enzo Grilli e Maw Cheng Yang, que mostra uma evolução de preços dos principais commodities ao longo do tempo, focando na alta ocorrida nos preços de produtos primários no período compreendido entre a abertura do mercado chinês a economia mundial até 2007, fato este que contrária a tese de Prebisch e Singer. Por último teremos a conclusão que responderá a questão objeto deste trabalho

This collection of essays examines the topic of macroeconomic stabilisation in an international context, focusing on monetary policy, capital controls and exchange rates. Chapter 1, written in collaboration with Giancarlo Corsetti and Joao Duarte, reconsiders the effects of common monetary policy shocks across countries in the euro area, using a data-rich factor model and identifying shocks with high-frequency surprises around policy announcements. We show that the degree of heterogeneity in the response to shocks, while being low in financial variables and output, is significant in consumption, consumer prices and macro variables related to the labour and housing markets. Mirroring country-specific institutional and market differences, we find that home ownership rates are significantly correlated with the strength of the housing channel in monetary policy transmission. We document a high dispersion in the response to shocks of house prices and rents and show that, similar to responses in the US, these variables tend to move in different directions. In Chapter 2, I build a two-country, two-good model to examine the welfare effects of capital controls, finding that under certain circumstances, a shut-down in asset trade can be a Pareto improvement. Further, I examine the robustness of the result to parameter changes, explore a wider set of policy instruments and confront computational issues in this class of international macroeconomic models. I document that within an empirically relevant parameter span for the trade elasticity, the gains from capital controls might be significantly larger than suggested by previous contributions. Moreover, I establish that a refined form of capital controls in the shape of taxes and tariffs cannot improve upon the outcome under financial autarky. Finally, results show that the conjunction of pruning methods and endogenous discount factors can remove explosive behaviour from this class of models and restore equilibrating properties. In Chapter 3, I use a panel of 20 emerging market currencies to assess whether a model that combines fundamental and non-fundamental exchange rate forecasting approaches can successfully predict risk premia (i.e. currency excess returns) over the short horizon. In doing so, I aim to overcome three main shortcomings of earlier research: i) Sensitivity to the chosen sample period; ii) seemingly arbitrary selection of explanatory variables that differs from currency to currency; and iii) difficulty in interpreting forecasts beyond the numerical signal. Based on a theoretical model of currency risk premia, I use real exchange rate strength combined with indicators for carry, momentum and economic sentiment to homogeneously forecast risk premia across all 20 currencies in the sample at a monthly frequency. In doing so, the model remains largely agnostic about structural choices, keeping arbitrarily imposed restrictions to a minimum. Results from portfolio construction suggest that returns are significant and robust both across currencies as well as over time, with Sharpe Ratios in out-of-sample tests above 0.7.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / O objetivo do presente trabalho é investigar a relação existente entre os termos de troca e o crescimento de longo prazo da economia brasileira, sob a perspectiva da restrição externa, entre o período de 1994 a 2014. Para tanto, baseia-se na contribuição original de Thirlwall (1979), no sentido de se testar empiricamente a contribuição dos termos de troca para a determinação do potencial de crescimento do produto brasileiro equivalente com o equilíbrio no Balanço de Pagamentos. Partindo-se do método de cointegração, o qual busca analisar a relação de longo prazo entre as variáveis, e subdividindo-se o referido período em dois subperíodos, 1994-2004 e 2004-2014, são estimadas e comparadas as elasticidades-renda reais e hipotéticas e as taxas de crescimento previstas e observadas, com e sem os termos de troca, para cada período. Os resultados obtidos mostram que a inclusão dos termos de troca no procedimento empírico de teste da validade da Lei de Thirlwall fez com que as taxas de crescimento obtidas pelo modelo (hipotéticas) fossem maiores, para o período total 1994-2014 e para o subperíodo 2004-2014. Esse relaxamento “teórico” da restrição externa, ocasionado pela inclusão dos termos de troca na regra de Thirlwall tradicional, todavia, superestimou a taxa de crescimento média para esses períodos, enquanto a Lei de Thirlwall tradicional – sem os termos de troca – se adequou melhor ao comportamento real da economia brasileira. Deste modo, apesar de ter contribuído potencialmente para o relaxamento da restrição externa ao crescimento brasileiro, o efeito dos termos de troca pode ter sido contrabalançado pelo comportamento negativo de outros componentes do Balanço de Pagamentos, como fluxos de capitais e o pagamentos de juros, lucros e dividendos ao exterior. / This study aims to investigate the relationship between terms of trade and the long-term growth of Brazilian economy, from the perspective of external constraint, between the period 1994 to 2014. For this purpose, it is based on Thirlwall's (1979) original contribution, in order to empirically test the terms of trade contribution for determining the Brazilian growth potential product equivalent with Balance of Payments equilibriun. Using cointegration method, which seeks to analyze the long-term relationship between the variables, and subdividing the period into two sub-periods, 1994-2004 and 2004-2014, we estimate and compare real and hypothetical income elasticities and predicted and observed growth rates, with and without the terms of trade, for each period. The obteined results show that the inclusion of terms of trade in the empirical procedure to test the validity of Thirlwall's Law lead to higher growth rates obtained by the model (hypothetical), for the entire period 1994-2014 and for the sub-period 2004 -2014. This "theoretical" relaxation of the external constraint, caused by the inclusion of the terms of trade in traditional Thirlwall's rule, overestimated the average real growth rate for these periods, while the traditional Thirlwall's Law - without terms of trade - has adapted better to the real behavior of Brazilian economy. Thus, despite having contributed potentially for the relaxation of external constraint on Brazilian growth, the effect of terms of trade may have been offset by the negative performance of other Balance of Payments components, as capital flows and interest, profits and dividends payments abroad. / Dissertação (Mestrado)

The thesis is focused on the changes in the terms of trade in Czech international trade in the term of from 2005 to 2015, as the period after the Czech Republic joined the European Union. The terms of trade are an important indicator of the benefits and loses of international trade. The main aim is to analyze the changes of terms of trade, the causes of their changes, and the impact on the real economy. The direction of the overall terms of trade index was highly unsettled, and did not actually generated additional gains in the economy not over the reporting period. The overall terms of trades were most influenced by the price development of two groups of the Standard International Trade Classification, Crude materials and lubricants, and machinery and transport equipment. The prices of Crude materials and lubricants are determined mainly by changes in the oil prices. These were very volatile in the reporting period, the especially the collapse of the prices in both 2009 and 2014-2015, had a significant impact on the import prices of the Czech economy. The thesis also analyzes the impact of exchange rate on the international trade prices, in the period since November 2013, i.e. after the Czech National Bank has committed to maintain the rate of Czech koruna against the Euro above the level of 27 CZK/EUR, which helped to protect the economy from deflations and enhance the economic growth. The effect of the weak crown, that favored the Czech exporters, however a faded over time.