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本研究觀察臺灣新上市公司的盈餘管理行為是否傾向於下半年或第四 季。且不同季別盈餘管理的舉措是否與股價操縱有關？如果答案為肯定， 則我國股市的資源與財富分配效效果，需進一步探討，並提出改良的方法 。 為驗證上述兩者之關聯性，本研究以民國 80 年至民國 83 年所有上市公司之年度財 務資訊與季資訊為樣本，用市場模式衡量 異常報酬，並比較年度間各類之淨應計項目，以 探討盈餘有用性、盈餘 管理之季節效應，及其與資訊內涵的關係。其實證結果顯示： (一)年度盈餘及季盈餘具資訊內涵，且季盈餘資訊內涵間具差異性。 (二)公司管理當局之年度間盈餘管理行為並未如預期地傾向於第四季或 下半年。 (三)公司管理當局年度間盈餘管理在好壞消息的樣本間是具差異性的，且在好消息 樣本間較顯著。 (四)公司管理當 局會利用季盈餘管理之結果來操縱股價。 綜合上述實證結果，由於盈餘資訊內涵的存在，對一般投資者而言，盈餘是有用的資訊，而公司當理當局會在年度中各季間從事盈餘管理行為來達成其預定目標。與本研究的 預期不同，公司管理當局不會在第四季或下半年特別作盈餘管理。由於我國股市投機風氣較盛，管理當局可能利用財務預測資訊或其他資訊來操縱股價，遠比盈餘管理有效。然原因如何尚待進一步探討。

Problem: Interim and annual reports are some of the most crucial sources of information regarding companies’ performances. Interested parties such as analysts and investors assess this information and compare it with expectations. Analysts’ expectations of companies’ interim reports are of great importance when analysing the future development of share movement. Possible deviations between analysts’ expectations and actual presented results from the individual companies might change the perceptions of specific future stock prices. Furthermore business sectors have different characteristics and might respond differently to unexpected earnings news. Over- and underperformance of the presented results in relation to analysts’ expectations could create specific stock price movements over a forthcoming period depending on the nature of the report. The authors label this phenomenon as persistent trends. Purpose: The purpose of this thesis was to establish whether persistency and trends could be observed in the future development of companies’ stock prices with regard to analysts’ expectations and the true result presented by the companies. Method: With a quantitative approach the authors conducted an event study aiming to fulfill the purpose of this thesis. The study consisted of all fourth quarter reports presented 2001 throughout 2004 by the companies presently listed on the Most traded section of the Stockholm stock exchange A-list. The authors defined the nature of the studied reports as positive or negative depending on whether the pre-tax earning exceeded or were lower than the analysts’ expectations. Furthermore the authors constructed a mathematical formula which distinguished if the possible deviation of actual results compared to expectations was significant. The share price performance for two months subsequent to the earnings announcement was recorded and compared with the OMXS30 development for the equivalent time, thereby the authors gathered empirical evidence to fulfill the purpose. Furthermore the data was also divided into business subcategories to provide answers to whether there was uniform response to unexpected earnings information among business sectors. Results: The authors presented empirically founded evidence for the existence of persistent trends following the presentation of both positive and negative reports. The authors also rejected the presence of a uniform response to deviating earnings information in the business sectors.

<p>Problem: Interim and annual reports are some of the most crucial sources of information regarding companies’ performances. Interested parties such as analysts and investors assess this information and compare it with expectations. Analysts’ expectations of companies’ interim reports are of great importance when analysing the future development of share movement. Possible deviations between analysts’ expectations and actual presented results from the individual companies might change the perceptions of specific future stock prices. Furthermore business sectors have different characteristics and might respond differently to unexpected earnings news. Over- and underperformance of the presented results in relation to analysts’ expectations could create specific stock price movements over a forthcoming period depending on the nature of the report. The authors label this phenomenon as persistent trends.</p><p>Purpose: The purpose of this thesis was to establish whether persistency and trends could be observed in the future development of companies’ stock prices with regard to analysts’ expectations and the true result presented by the companies.</p><p>Method: With a quantitative approach the authors conducted an event study aiming to fulfill the purpose of this thesis. The study consisted of all fourth quarter reports presented 2001 throughout 2004 by the companies presently listed on the Most traded section of the Stockholm stock exchange A-list. The authors defined the nature of the studied reports as positive or negative depending on whether the pre-tax earning exceeded or were lower than the analysts’ expectations. Furthermore the authors constructed a mathematical formula which distinguished if the possible deviation of actual results compared to expectations was significant. The share price performance for two months subsequent to the earnings announcement was recorded and compared with the OMXS30 development for the equivalent time, thereby the authors gathered empirical evidence to fulfill the purpose. Furthermore the data was also divided into business subcategories to provide answers to whether there was uniform response to unexpected earnings information among business sectors.</p><p>Results: The authors presented empirically founded evidence for the existence of persistent trends following the presentation of both positive and negative reports. The authors also rejected the presence of a uniform response to deviating earnings information in the business sectors.</p>