published_or_final_version / abstract / Civil Engineering / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

published_or_final_version / abstract / Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

published_or_final_version / Social Work and Social Administration / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

published_or_final_version / Urban Planning / Master / Master of Science in Urban Planning

In this research a model is developed to predict population for relatively rural areas experiencing rapid economic development. Of the many ways to predict population size, in this research a "demographic-economic" model is chosen for use. The economic variables which aid in projecting population are total employment, and net changes in employment associated with economic growth. The model developed for this research is applied to Oregon's Northern Columbia River Basin Counties of Morrow, Umatilla, and Gilliam. Each county is or is expected to experience rapid growth in its agricultural and/or industrial sectors in the next few years. Using employment projections to the year 1990, population projections are made at five-year intervals between the years 1970 and 1990. / Graduation date: 1977

No description available.

3 pp. / This fact sheet briefly describes the research protocol of the Colorado River Indian Tribes reservation.

The terms "core" and "periphery" have a long history of use for describing regional variability in the archaeological record. Contemporary theories for the late prehistoric in the Greater Southwest often follow this tradition, postulating underlying social processes that created this division. This dissertation examines the assumptions and the evidence for theories of long-distance social interaction by considering the prehistory of the Northern Sierra, a region in the south-central Greater Southwest located in northwestern Chihuahua, northeastern Sonora, southwestern New Mexico, and southeastern Arizona. Paquime (sometimes called Casas Grandes) in Chihuahua is widely considered to be the core of late prehistoric developments in the Northern Sierra. The history of research and interpretation of the region are carefully considered, an analysis that demonstrates the inadequacies of current data and theory. New frameworks will be needed to resolve disputed issues. Towards this end, evidence of interaction at Paquime is examined by analyzing the quantity and distribution of nonlocal ceramics within the site. These probable exchange items are found to be relatively rare and their distribution diffuse, indicating acquisition was largely casual and infrequent. Attention is then focused on the postulated periphery by examining the upper San Bernardino Valley in the extreme southeastern corner of Arizona. Data collected for this examination includes survey within the Valley and excavation of the late prehistoric Boss Ranch Site (AZ FF:7:10 (ASM)). The interpretive concerns that are addressed include (1) population movements, (2) external influences on settlement systems, (3) trade and interaction, and (4) the influences of subsistence systems. The analysis revealed no evidence of population intrusion from the "core" and few aspects of local material culture that could be ascribed to Paquime. Exchange items are rare, and the probable sources include many areas besides the zone around Paquime. Furthermore, excavation data suggest that settlements may have been occupied repeatedly for short periods. This undermines notions of stable core and periphery interaction by indicating the absence of surplus crops, stable social alliances, and hierarchical settlement systems in the region.

An intermediate level model for tropical climatology including atmosphere-land-ocean interaction is developed. The model contains basically linearized steady state primitive equations with simplified thermodynamics. A simple hydrological cycle is also included. Special attention has been paid to land surface processes in attempting to study climate change caused by Amazon deforestation. In comparison with previous simple modeling work on tropical climatology or anomaly, the present model is more sophisticated in the sense that it predicts all the important meteorological variables with little input, while being computationally simple. The modeled tropical climatology appears to be realistic. The model generally better simulates the ENSO anomaly compared to many previous simple model simulations. We provide analysis of model results and discuss model deficiencies and possible improvements of the model. The climatic impact of Amazon deforestation is studied in the context of this model. Model results show a much weakened Atlantic Walker/Hadley circulation as a result of the existence of a strong positive feedback loop in the atmospheric circulation system and the hydrological cycle. The regional climate is very sensitive to albedo change and sensitive to evapotranspiration change. The pure dynamical effect of surface roughness on convergence is small, but the surface flow anomaly displays intriguing features. Analysis of the thermodynamic equation reveals the balance among convective heating, adiabatic cooling and radiation largely determines the deforestation response. The model provides a plausible mechanism for the common results of many GCM simulations. Studies of the consequences of hypothetical continuous deforestation suggest that the replacement of forest by desert may be able to sustain a desert-like climate. When a simple mixed layer ocean model is coupled with the atmospheric model, the results suggest a 1 °C decrease in SST gradient across the equatorial Atlantic ocean in response to Amazon deforestation. The magnitude of the decrease depends on the coupling strength.

The Gila River Indian Reservation lies in the Sonoran Desert of south-central Arizona, with an elevation range from 941 to 4512 feet (287 to 1375 m). Three major desert streams (the Salt, Gila, and Santa Cruz Rivers) have their confluences on the reservation. The human occupancy of the Gila floodplain is believed to have been continuous for the past two millenia. In the past century loss of stream flow and deterioration of riparian and marsh habitats have resulted from drastic changes in hydrologic regimes of the major streams. Documentation of original habitat conditions is based on Hispanic accounts (1694-1821) and subsequent Anglo accounts, together with oral history from the Pima Indians. Riparian timber and emergent vegetation were gone by 1950 due to destructive floods and lowered water table. Irrigation run-off and Phoenix sewage effluent have reestablished locally riparian communities and marshes. Eleven major habitats occur today on the reservation. Their predominant vegetation is described. Field work on the reservation was conducted from 1963 to 1976. Modern distributional data are compared with evidence from archaeological, ethnographic, and historical sources. The total avifauna (all time horizons) consists of 232 species, of which 207 are supported by specimen evidence. At least 101 species are breeding or have bred in the past; five other species are probably breeding. On geographic grounds an additional seven species are suspected of having bred aboriginally. The taxonomy and migration are discussed in accounts of 46 species with two or more subspecies occurring on the study area. The Piman ethno-taxonomy of birds distinguishes 67 taxa, most of which correspond to Linnaean (biological) species. In the past 100 years 28 species (21 as breeding species) have been extirpated from the reservation. Of these 24 are directly related to loss of riparian woodlands or open water and marshes. Since 1958 at least 13 species have recolonized as a result of the redevelopment of riparian communities with willow, cottonwood, and cattail. The present reservation habitat and avifauna are contrasted with two modern analogs with perennial surface water and intact riparian communities. These are at similar elevations, less than 30 miles (48 km) from the reservation. Ten Neotropical species have colonized Arizona within the 20th century and an additional eight have extended their breeding ranges northward. Four Neotropical species have occupied the reservation during this period. Formerly allopatric subspecies of two species (Great-tailed Grackle, Quiscalus mexicanus, and Horned Lark, Eremophila alpestris) are now interbreeding on the reservation in areas of secondary intergradation. The northward movements are attributed to post- Pleistocene recolonizations, in part facilitated by human modifications of habitats. At least 15 wintering species are departing earlier in spring than they did at the turn of the century. This is attributed to habitat deterioration. The habitats with the greatest avifaunal diversity, both summer and winter, are the traditional Pima farms (rancherlas) and the recently redeveloped riparian communities along the Salt River. The least diversified and most disturbed habitats are the Gila River channel and the large-scale mechanized farms on lands leased to non-Indians. The future of both the natural habitats and the avifauna of the reservation is in the hands of tribal leaders.