The United States is for the first time 100 years potentially facing a peer in the international Arena. China’s rise has been significant over the last 20 years, and they are now able to rival the United States in many areas. How then, will the long dominant United States react to the rise of China, how does it view it as a threat. Utilizing a content analysis approach including threat framing and assessment of threat perception intensity this study seeks to answer the question of how the United States view China as a threat. The result of the analysis indicates an intensification of threat perception of China over time, but then going down again. Obama had the lowest average intensity, trump the highest, and Biden somewhat lower than Trump. The results deepen our understanding of American threat perception and can allow for further research on the subject. / <p></p><p></p>

Small states have limited ability to influence the security environment and other states in the rivalry over scarce resources. How can a small state adapt to changes and challenges in the security environment and protect the state from perceived threats? The purpose of this thesis is to understand how a militarily non-aligned small state's threat perceptions adapts to changes in the security environment and how these developments affect its strategic adaptation. The thesis explains how some 21st century changes of the security environment have affected the Finnish threat perceptions and strategic adaptation of a small state.  The problem is solved by conducting a qualitative content analysis of Finnish security and defence reports of the 21st century and by utilizing an analytic framework constructed for this purpose. The question is answered by presenting the main changes in the Finnish security environment and threat perceptions, and by explaining how policy has been adapted to these changes. The questions are answered both conceptually with theoretic models from a small state perspective and with in-depth analysis utilizing the theoretic models for contextual understanding in a structured manner.  As a result, conceptual frameworks are presented as tentative explanations for a small state’s threat perceptions and strategic adaptation. The contextual results suggest that from a change perspective the Russian aggressions in Ukraine 2014 and 2022 have had the biggest impact on Finnish strategic adaptation in terms of conceptual changes, use of resources and alignment strategies.

This project examined the effects of threat perceptions and group empathy on racial outgroup attitudes. The relationship between threat perception and increased racial prejudice has been well established within the literature, but the effect of group empathy within this dynamic has been largely undocumented. The following study utilizes data from the American National Election Study 2020 Time Series to analyze racial outgroup attitudes among subsamples of Blacks (n = 726), Hispanics (n = 762), and Whites (n = 5,962). Along with threat perception, group empathy was found to be a salient predictor of outgroup attitudes. These results suggest that an effective technique to reduce negative outgroup attitudes would aim to reduce perceptions of outgroups as threatening and increase group empathy.

This thesis creates a new variable for threat perception built upon psychological concepts and then applies this new variable to the question of why leaders use military force in certain situations. The concept of threat perception has a long history in the field in terms of its effect on leaders choosing to use military force. However, while the concept of threat perception is inherently psychological, previous proxies for the variable have included only situational factors, which is highly problematic. By utilizing the Operational Code, this study creates a new threat-perception variable based on cognitive constructs. Using a sample of US presidents, this new variable is tested in two different ways. The first examines three psychological characteristics (need for power, in-group bias, and distrust) from Leadership Trait Analysis that are thought to influence the level of threat perception in a leader. The second examines threat perception as an explanatory variable for the use of force alongside three other important control variables (economic violence, presidential popularity, and US power). The use of force variable is derived from Meernik's Use of Force dataset with each case in the dataset representing an opportunity to use force. The psychological data are derived from the verbal material of US presidents using at-a-distance methods found in the literature. OLS regression and probit are used to model the research questions. The project finds that levels of threat perception are indeed affected by a leader's level of distrust, in-group bias, and need for power. In addition, the new psychologically-derived threat-perception variable is a very good predictor of a president's use of force: presidents with higher levels of threat perception have a much higher probability of using force when the situation presents an opportunity.

The competing values of national security and civil liberties have been contested as conflicting ideas during times of national emergencies and war, in which the canonical knowledge asserts that the temporary secession of civil liberties is sometimes necessary to protect national security. After the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack there has been increased pressure on the U.S. government to provide safety and security, which has required Americans to accept certain restrictions on their freedoms, leading to debates about whether liberty or security should be prioritized. The increasing popularization of securitization in post 9/11 discourse justified by a perpetual state of emergency via the War on Terror, has reinforced the racialization of reified "others," specifically Muslims or people who are perceived to be descendent from the Middle East. The conceptualization of Middle Easterners as 'terrorists' and 'threats' to be securitized has been constructed by political elites and media narratives to garner support for security measures leading to the diminished civil liberties of those stereotyped as "terrorists." Using the theoretical approach of racialized "othering" and the minority threat perception, this research seeks to analyze public opinion on counterterrorism policies when the race/ethnicity and ideological motivations of perpetrators in a hypothetical terrorist attack scenario are manipulated. To investigate this premise, an online survey experiment distributed through Amazon MTurk was conducted to gather public opinion data on counterterrorism policies. Regression analyses were conducted from the 314 respondents to evaluate support amongst various social groups for the counterterrorism policies and whether or not this support was affected by the presence of either American-born, White, men motivated by the teachings of far-right extremism or American-born, men of Middle Eastern descent motivated by the teachings of Islamic extremism. Respondents were asked to evaluate two counterterrorism policies, one that required ceding the civil liberties of the public at large, and the other required ceding the civil liberties of suspected terrorists specifically – which is also referred to as the 'punitive' policy throughout the research. Overall, respondents were more likely to support the policy requiring ceding civil liberties in general, than the punitive policy that would take away the civil liberties of suspected terrorist. When factoring in survey type, respondents in general were more likely to support the punitive policy when taking the White/Far-right extremism survey and were also the most likely to support the policy requiring the public to cede their civil liberties when taking the Middle Eastern/Islamic extremism survey. The willingness to cede civil liberties increased for Black and Asian respondents with the presence of the White/Far-right extremism survey, while willingness to cede civil liberties decreased for White respondents taking the same survey. In general, conservatives were more likely to cede their civil liberties than liberals, and liberals were more likely to view counterterrorism policies as ineffective. When accounting for the effects of survey type on ideology, the results show that conservatives were the least likely to cede their civil liberties when taking the White/Far-right extremism survey, while liberals were the most likely to cede their civil liberties when taking the Middle Eastern/Islamic extremism survey. / Master of Arts / This thesis explores the role of issue framing, and threat perception on terrorism and its effects on public perception of the liberty vs. security paradigm by way of support for counterterrorism policies. Specifically, this research aims to assess whether support for counterterrorism policies by social group (focusing on race and ideology) varies when the race/ethnicity and ideological motivations of the perpetrators are manipulated in a hypothetical terrorist attack scenario. In order to test this effect, a survey experiment was conducted to gather public opinion data on counterterrorism policies which emulated the liberty/security trade-offs within the Patriot Act. The survey was distributed through the online platform Amazon MTurk which garnered 314 responses. Regression analyses were conducted to evaluate support amongst various social groups for the counterterrorism policies and whether or not this support was affected by the presence of either American-born, White, men motivated by the teachings of far-right extremism or American-born, men of Middle Eastern descent motivated by the teachings of Islamic extremism. Using the theoretical approach of "othering" and the minority threat perception that contributes to desires for increased social controls and levels of punitiveness among the public, this research evaluates respondents' willingness to cede their own civil liberties as well as their support for punitive policies that take away the civil liberties of the perpetrators based on the survey/stimuli respondents received. Overall, respondents were more likely to support the policy requiring ceding civil liberties, than support the punitive policy that would take away the civil liberties of the perpetrators. When factoring in survey type, respondents in general were more likely to support the punitive policy when taking the White/Far-right extremism survey and were also the most likely to support the policy requiring the public to cede their civil liberties when taking the Middle Eastern/Islamic extremism survey. The willingness to cede civil liberties increased for Black and Asian respondents with the presence of the White/Far-right extremism survey, while the willingness to cede civil liberties decreased for White respondents with the presence of the White/Far-right extremism survey. In general, conservatives were more likely to cede their civil liberties than liberals, and liberals were more likely to view counterterrorism policies as ineffective. When accounting for the effects of survey type on ideology, the results show that conservatives were the least likely to cede their civil liberties when taking the White/Far-right extremism survey, while liberals were the most likely to cede their civil liberties when taking the Middle Eastern/Islamic extremism survey.

The aim of this dissertation is to examine the process of securitization of terrorism, to develop the role of the audience (public) at the individual level and subsequently to provide recommendations on an alternative way of fighting terrorism. In order to achieve this goal, the author uses socially constructivist securitization theory, critical terrorism studies and political psychology, namely cognitive and social psychology. Throughout the chapters, the securitization process of terrorism is explored; terrorism as a (to a certain extent) objective problem, further, from the point of view of critical terrorism studies, the security measures are assessed and public opinion is examined through public opinion polls. The author comes to the conclusion that public opinion is one of the key factors in implementing extensive security measures. Therefore, she further examines the factors that affect public opinion; the narrative, the role of the media, and ultimately the psychological processes influencing the perception of reality. It turns out that the narrative about terrorism and the media have their share in the public reaction to terrorism, but the role of the audience in the securitization process of terrorism is not fully explained and there are the psychological processes that illuminate it. Therefore, by running an experiment, the author examines the effect of three narratives about terrorism, based on psychological theories. It concludes that there is a potential for reducing the public's fears and thus the alternative fight against terrorism.

Although the topic of international mediation has been debated frequently amongst academic scholars, most literature has failed to address the notion of threat perception. This thesis examines the impact of threat perceptions from ideational and material force on the prospects for successful international mediation. In this comparative case study, I argue that threat perception is an influential factor conditioning the road towards peace agreements, by examining one case of failure and one case of success in international mediation of interstate conflicts. The first case in the comparison consists of the conflict between Armenia-Azerbaijan in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, where the OSCE Minsk Group has conducted mediation efforts. The second case examined is the conflict between Israel-Egypt which predominately have been mediated by the US. A conflict which ending was marked by the Camp David Accords in 1978 and resulted in a peace treaty the year after. The analysis shows that threat perception is indeed a factor of importance for outcome in relation to international mediation. Compared to previous research largely focused on material factors, the result shows that ideational factors should be considered to the same extent and are influential in both cases. This contribution to the field of war studies and international mediation literature also reflects the interconnectivity between threat perceptions from ideational and material force. An insight which I argue is pivotal for the comprehension of why some interstate conflicts appear to be resistant to resolution.

This thesis purpose is to examine the development of the European Union’s threat perception and identetity construction in regards to Russia. It uses a qualitive text analysis to study the national security strategies formulated by the memberstates Sweden, Germany, Italy and Poland and how these countries view of Russia is formulated. Furthermore it compares the change from before the annexation of Crimea and the Ukraine crisis and how this influenced the possibly change in perception of Russia. The study finds that the Russian action in Crimea and Ukraine has changed the threat perception in Sweden, Germany and Poland but that Russia is not mentioned in the Italy papers. Hence the identity construction is similar in the countries north of the Alps but Italy does not contrast its identety to Russia. From this the study concludes that the Russian threat is not enough to construct an European identity throughout Europe but there are patterns within the Union, which might indicate how the European project might continue.

This thesis examines attentional and cognitive biases for particular facial expressions in delusion-prone and deluded individuals. The exploration of cognitive biases in delusion-prone individuals provides one means of elucidating psychological processes that might be involved in the genesis of delusions. Chapter 1 provides a brief review of the continuum approach to schizophrenia, and outlines recent theoretical conceptualisations of delusions. The study of schizophrenia phenomena at the symptom level has become a popular method of inquiry, given the heterogeneous phenotypic expression of schizophrenia, and the uncertainty surrounding the existence of a core neuropathology. Delusions are one of the most commonly experienced symptoms of schizophrenia, and have traditionally been regarded as fixed, false beliefs that are pathognomonic of an organic disease process. However, recent phenomenological evidence of delusional ideation in the general population has led to the conceptualisation of delusions as multi-dimensional entities, lying at the extreme end of a continuum from normal through to maladaptive beliefs. Recent investigations of the information processing abnormalities in deluded individuals are reviewed in Chapter 2. This strand of research has revealed evidence of various biases in social cognition, particularly in relation to threat-related material, in deluded individuals. These biases are evident in probabilistic reasoning, attribution style, and attention, but there has been relatively little investigation of cognitive aberrations in delusion-prone individuals. In the present thesis, social-cognitive biases were examined in relation to a standard series of faces that included threat-related (anger, fear) and non-threatening (happy, sad) expressions, in both delusion-prone and clinically deluded individuals. Chapters 3 and 4 present the results of behavioural (RT, affect recognition accuracy) and visual scanpath investigations in healthy participants assessed for level of delusion- proneness. The results indicate that delusion-prone individuals are slower at processing angry faces, and show a general (rather than emotion-specific) impairment in facial affect recognition, compared to non-prone healthy controls. Visual scanpath studies show that healthy individuals tend to direct more foveal fixations to the feature areas (eyes, nose, mouth) of threat-related facial expressions (anger, fear). By contrast, delusion-prone individuals exhibit reduced foveal attention to threat-related faces, combined with �extended� scanpaths, that may be interpreted as an attentional pattern of �vigilance-avoidance� for social threat. Chapters 5 and 6 extend the work presented in Chapters 3 and 4, by investigating the presence of similar behavioural and attentional biases in deluded schizophrenia, compared to healthy control and non-deluded schizophrenia groups. Deluded schizophrenia subjects exhibited a similar delay in processing angry faces, compared to non-prone control participants, while both deluded and non-deluded schizophrenia groups displayed a generalised affect recognition deficit. Visual scanpath investigations revealed a similar style of avoiding a broader range of negative (anger, fear, sad) faces in deluded schizophrenia, as well as a common pattern of fewer fixations with shorter duration, and reduced attention to facial features of all faces in both deluded and non-deluded schizophrenia. The examination of inferential biases for emotions displayed in facial expressions is presented in Chapter 7 in a study of causal attributional style. The results of this study provide some support for a �self-serving� bias in deluded schizophrenia, as well as evidence for an inability to appreciate situational cues when making causal judgements in both delusion-prone and deluded schizophrenia. A theoretical integration of the current findings is presented in Chapter 8, with regard to the implications for cognitive theories of delusions, and neurobiological models of schizophrenia phenomena, more generally. Visual attention biases for threat-related facial expressions in delusion-prone and deluded schizophrenia are consistent with proposals of neural dysconnectivity between frontal-limbic networks, while attributional biases and impaired facial expression perception may reflect dysfunction in a broader �social brain� network encompassing these and medial temporal lobe regions. Strong evidence for attentional biases and affect recognition deficits in delusion-prone individuals implicates their role in the development of delusional beliefs, but the weaker evidence for attributional biases in delusion-prone individuals suggests that inferential biases about others� emotions may be relevant only to the maintenance of delusional beliefs (or that attributional biases for others� emotional states may reflect other, trait-linked difficulties related to mentalising ability). In summary, the work presented in this thesis demonstrates the utility of adopting a single-symptom approach to schizophrenia within the continuum framework, and attests to the importance of further investigations of aberrant social cognition in relation to the development of delusions.

This thesis examines attentional and cognitive biases for particular facial expressions in delusion-prone and deluded individuals. The exploration of cognitive biases in delusion-prone individuals provides one means of elucidating psychological processes that might be involved in the genesis of delusions. Chapter 1 provides a brief review of the continuum approach to schizophrenia, and outlines recent theoretical conceptualisations of delusions. The study of schizophrenia phenomena at the symptom level has become a popular method of inquiry, given the heterogeneous phenotypic expression of schizophrenia, and the uncertainty surrounding the existence of a core neuropathology. Delusions are one of the most commonly experienced symptoms of schizophrenia, and have traditionally been regarded as fixed, false beliefs that are pathognomonic of an organic disease process. However, recent phenomenological evidence of delusional ideation in the general population has led to the conceptualisation of delusions as multi-dimensional entities, lying at the extreme end of a continuum from normal through to maladaptive beliefs. Recent investigations of the information processing abnormalities in deluded individuals are reviewed in Chapter 2. This strand of research has revealed evidence of various biases in social cognition, particularly in relation to threat-related material, in deluded individuals. These biases are evident in probabilistic reasoning, attribution style, and attention, but there has been relatively little investigation of cognitive aberrations in delusion-prone individuals. In the present thesis, social-cognitive biases were examined in relation to a standard series of faces that included threat-related (anger, fear) and non-threatening (happy, sad) expressions, in both delusion-prone and clinically deluded individuals. Chapters 3 and 4 present the results of behavioural (RT, affect recognition accuracy) and visual scanpath investigations in healthy participants assessed for level of delusion- proneness. The results indicate that delusion-prone individuals are slower at processing angry faces, and show a general (rather than emotion-specific) impairment in facial affect recognition, compared to non-prone healthy controls. Visual scanpath studies show that healthy individuals tend to direct more foveal fixations to the feature areas (eyes, nose, mouth) of threat-related facial expressions (anger, fear). By contrast, delusion-prone individuals exhibit reduced foveal attention to threat-related faces, combined with �extended� scanpaths, that may be interpreted as an attentional pattern of �vigilance-avoidance� for social threat. Chapters 5 and 6 extend the work presented in Chapters 3 and 4, by investigating the presence of similar behavioural and attentional biases in deluded schizophrenia, compared to healthy control and non-deluded schizophrenia groups. Deluded schizophrenia subjects exhibited a similar delay in processing angry faces, compared to non-prone control participants, while both deluded and non-deluded schizophrenia groups displayed a generalised affect recognition deficit. Visual scanpath investigations revealed a similar style of avoiding a broader range of negative (anger, fear, sad) faces in deluded schizophrenia, as well as a common pattern of fewer fixations with shorter duration, and reduced attention to facial features of all faces in both deluded and non-deluded schizophrenia. The examination of inferential biases for emotions displayed in facial expressions is presented in Chapter 7 in a study of causal attributional style. The results of this study provide some support for a �self-serving� bias in deluded schizophrenia, as well as evidence for an inability to appreciate situational cues when making causal judgements in both delusion-prone and deluded schizophrenia. A theoretical integration of the current findings is presented in Chapter 8, with regard to the implications for cognitive theories of delusions, and neurobiological models of schizophrenia phenomena, more generally. Visual attention biases for threat-related facial expressions in delusion-prone and deluded schizophrenia are consistent with proposals of neural dysconnectivity between frontal-limbic networks, while attributional biases and impaired facial expression perception may reflect dysfunction in a broader �social brain� network encompassing these and medial temporal lobe regions. Strong evidence for attentional biases and affect recognition deficits in delusion-prone individuals implicates their role in the development of delusional beliefs, but the weaker evidence for attributional biases in delusion-prone individuals suggests that inferential biases about others� emotions may be relevant only to the maintenance of delusional beliefs (or that attributional biases for others� emotional states may reflect other, trait-linked difficulties related to mentalising ability). In summary, the work presented in this thesis demonstrates the utility of adopting a single-symptom approach to schizophrenia within the continuum framework, and attests to the importance of further investigations of aberrant social cognition in relation to the development of delusions.