Submitted by Maike Costa (maiksebas@gmail.com) on 2017-09-01T14:18:44Z No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 2068627 bytes, checksum: 45546765d8c38a937b45e6ec70e3fca4 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Viviane Lima da Cunha (viviane@biblioteca.ufpb.br) on 2017-09-01T16:00:32Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 2068627 bytes, checksum: 45546765d8c38a937b45e6ec70e3fca4 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-09-01T16:00:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 2068627 bytes, checksum: 45546765d8c38a937b45e6ec70e3fca4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-07-22 / This study aimed to analyze how the market timing ability (HMT) influences the performance of investors to the Brazilian equity funds. For this, it was measured the performance of investors to the Brazilian equity funds, based on cumulative cash flows over the period of analysis, from 2010 to 2015. Additionally, it was quantified the investor HMT, based on the difference between the performance of managers and the performance of investors. It was also analyzed the relationship between HMT and quality of funds selected by investors, based on risk-adjusted return, determined by three and four factors models. Finally, possible determinants of investor HMT were investigated, based on the characteristics of the Brazilian equity funds, through quantile regression. The results of the first stage of the analysis indicate that, on average, investors in the Brazilian equity funds undertake their profitability due to the moment that they realized cash flows inputs and outputs. This result was also observed in specific classes of funds like Value/Growth, Small Caps and Free. However, for the other classes of funds, it was found that on average, the decisions related to the cash flows caused investors obtain superior performance to that earned by the funds. The results of the second stage of the analysis indicate that there are positive and statistically significant relationship between the adjusted performance risk and HMT. Using the two risk factors models, it was found that the funds classified in the best performance deciles showed positive HMT, which suggests that the better the fund's performance, most investors are penalized for their market timing decisions. Regarding the investigation of the determinants of HMT, the performance gap of investors was lower as the size of funds and greater as the lockup period, the growth rate of cash flows and the last return of funds. The main academic contribution of this study is to show the influence of market timing decisions, from the perspective of individual investors. The use of a individual performance measure based on cash flows, made it possible to quantify the possible gains or losses earned by investors compared to the performance provided by the funds. How market contributions, it is believed that the results of this study may help both Brazilian investors, as the financial market professionals, to take heed to the importance of market timing decisions, and how they can influence positively or negatively the performance earned by investors. / Esta tese teve como objetivo analisar como a habilidade de market timing (HMT) influencia o desempenho de investidores de fundos de ações brasileiros. Para tanto, foi mensurado o desempenho dos investidores de fundos de ações brasileiros, com base nos fluxos de caixa acumulados, ao longo do período de análise, de 01 de janeiro de 2010 a 30 de setembro de 2015. Adicionalmente, foi quantificada a HMT dos investidores, com base na diferença entre o desempenho dos gestores e o desempenho dos investidores dos fundos. Também foi analisada a relação entre a HMT e a qualidade dos fundos selecionados pelos investidores, com base no retorno ajustado ao risco, determinado pelos modelos de três e quatro fatores. Por fim, foram investigados possíveis determinantes da HMT dos investidores, com base nas características de uma amostra de fundos de ações brasileiros, por meio da regressão quantílica. Os resultados da primeira etapa da análise indicam que, em média, os investidores dos fundos de ações brasileiros comprometem sua rentabilidade devido ao momento em que realizam entrada e saída de caixa nos fundos. Esse resultado também foi observado nos fundos das classes específicas Valor/Crescimento, Small Caps e Livre. Entretanto, para as demais classes de fundos, verificou-se que, em média, as decisões relacionadas aos fluxos de caixa fizeram com que os investidores obtivessem desempenho superior àquele auferido pelos fundos. Os resultados da segunda etapa da análise indicam que há relação positiva e estatisticamente significativa entre o desempenho ajustado ao risco e a HMT. Utilizando-se os dois modelos de fatores de risco, verificou-se que os fundos classificados nos decis de melhor desempenho apresentaram HMT positiva, o que sugere que, quanto melhor o desempenho do fundo, mais os investidores são penalizados por suas decisões de market timing. Quanto à investigação dos possíveis determinantes da HMT, a lacuna de performance do desempenho dos investidores foi menor conforme o tamanho dos fundos e maior conforme o período de lockup, a taxa de crescimento dos fluxos de caixa e o retorno passado dos fundos. A principal contribuição acadêmica deste estudo é evidenciar a influência das decisões de market timing, sob a perspectiva dos investidores individuais. Como contribuições ao mercado, acredita-se que os resultados do presente estudo podem auxiliar tanto os investidores brasileiros, quanto os profissionais do mercado financeiro, no sentido de atentarem para a importância das decisões de market timing, e como elas podem influenciar positiva ou negativamente o desempenho auferido pelos investidores.

The increasing popularity of passive investment strategies causes the long-term feasibility of active investing to be questioned more often. Therefore, this research aimed to uncover whether active investors' influence on fund performance is positive and significant enough to offset the cost involved, thereby providing reasoning for active rather than passive investing. A comparative analysis of 211 actively managed funds and 191 market and industry-specific indices is performed. Security selection skills and market timing ability are captured through a model comprising of the Fama French three-factor and the Treynor and Mazuy market timing model. The sample is tested between 2005 and 2020, with 5-year sub-periods. Over the full period, active and passive returns are found to be nearly indistinguishable. However, active funds seem to excel during bearish periods, where passive funds excel in bullish periods. The standard deviation is higher overall for passive investing. This difference, however, disappears during bearish periods. The security selection skill is barely distinguishable from zero for either strategy. On the other hand, market timing ability is existent for active investors, indicating a positive effect in bearish markets and a negative effect in bullish markets. Additionally, for both investing strategies, more than 90% of the returns are explained by the movements of the general market. The most suitable investment strategy is truly determined by an investor's level of risk aversion. Nevertheless, this research found that, in general, the passive investing strategy is dominant under normal market conditions. Active investors can act on the macroeconomic developments that fuel crises. This advantage enables them to achieve returns superior to indices while preserving a lower standard deviation during bearish market conditions.

共同基金是未來投資理財約主流!專業法人機構在股市之投資比重日益提高，對國內證券市場生態產生結構性改變。展望未來趨勢，隨著股市發展成熟化、上市上櫃公司遽增與金融市場情勢連動關係複雜化等因素，專業投資理財時代的來臨必將成為事實。「專業、分工理財」投資型態將逐漸取代以往投資人自行下海操作之「自助式理財」型態。故共同基金操作績效正是進行本評鑑研究的最大動機，其中辨認基金經理人操作策略與績效顯現最具代表性的指標--選股能力與擇時能力．乃本研究所欲深入探討的主題。本研究模型之構建乃根據 Lee-Rahman (1990) 所提出之改良評鑑模式，簡言之，該模型的發展歷經早期 Treynor & Mazuy (1966) 的理論雛形，並經過 Jensen 針對評鑑擇時能力方面之改進，然後再經由 Bhattacharya & Pfleiderer (1983) 的進一步修正，產生了較完善的整體架構，最後經由 Lee-Rahman (1990) 針對評鑑過程中評鑑迴歸式之殘餘項異質性問題，作一根本的解決，建構完整的基金選股與市場擇時能力績效之評鑑模式。同時並運用幾個傳統績效評鑑指標 (即 Treynor、 Sharpe 與 Jensen 指標三種)，作為基金整體性績效之輔助研究。 實證結果顯示:(一)在基金整體績效評估方面，得到的結果顯示不論研究期間的長短．基金表現擊敗大盤的比例皆高於五成，約介於 60% 至 70% 左右，而在 Treynor、Sharpe 與 Jensen 指標三種不同評鑑模式分析下，基金績效排名有相當顯著的一致性。(二)在選股與市場擇時能力評鑑( Lee-Rahman 修正模型)方面:1.同時兼具選股與市場擇時能力的基金皆有穩定的一致性;2.大多頭時期基金擇時能力普遍提昇、新投信基金績效表現較優異。(三)整合比較結論方面:1.本研究中不同的評鑑模式所得實證結果十分肯定基金績效的持續性與穩定性;2.基金顯著的擇時能力並非基金整體績效脫穎而出的決定性因素，績效傑出與否幾乎決定於選股功力因素:3.台灣股市投資 Bottom-up 的投資邏輯漸漸取代 Top-down ;4.新投信績效已有凌駕老投信的趨勢。 / Mutual Funds Investment will be very popular! While the professional institutionalist's participation being promoted, domestic stock market environment has beenchanged structurally. In the future, accompanied by several reasons such us the_maturationof stock market, dramatic increasing in listed company numbers and more complex correlation in international financial markets, the age stressing on professional financial adversary will come. "Professional financial investment and adversary" will substitute for"Self-adversary" investment. Therefore, measuring the mutual fund's performance is the mailmotivation of my study', and the insight in selectivity ability and market timing ability will bethe subject for further research. The research model is based on the Lee-Rahman's modified model (1990), that is, the model structure was first built by Treynor & Mazuy (1966), improved by Jensen in Timingability measurement, and then revised by Bhattacharya & Pfleiderer (1983), and throughout structured by solving the "heteroscedasticity" in error terms of regressions finally Therefore, the better integral research model on measuring selectivity ability a timing abilityhas been accomplished. Meanwhile, we also use three traditional performance measure(Treynor, Sharpe & Jensen index) to be the general performance research. Empirical results show that (1)By measuring the general performance of mutual funds, we know that about 60%-70% funds managers beat market at each research period, and there exists consistency of fund's performance ranking among those three measures. (2) By using Lee-Rahman modified model (1990), we got three conclusions. First, for those funds consist of selectivity and timing ability, there exists consistency. In bull market period, timing ability of most funds performed better generally, and new funds had better performance. (3) Integral comparative conclusions have four results. First, no matter what measures being used, empirical results confirm stability and consistency in performance ranking. Second, significant timing ability is not the determinate factor of significant performance, significant selectivity ability plays the determinate role. Third, in Taiwan, bottom-up investment strategy gradually substitutes for top-down investment strategy. Finally, new mutual funds investment co. had outperformed old mutual funds investment institutions.