While studies have indicated the onset of fertility transition in Nigeria as in most Sub- Saharan countries, no systematic attempt has been made to identify the factors responsible for this trend. Existing explanation tends to draw from the demographic transition theory without exploring the value of other key variables. One of these variables is the degree of preference implementation. This study explores the role of fertility preference implementation on the onset of fertility transition in Nigeria. The study estimated the extent to which couples have been able to implement their fertility preferences with a view to better understand the factors that are responsible for the fertility changes in the country. This study was based on the socio-economic and microeconomic frameworks of fertility namely: the Bongaarts et al (1984) version and its Stover’s reformulation (1998) of the proximate determinants of fertility and the Bongaarts (1993) supply-demand framework for the analysis of the determinants of fertility, respectively. The proximate determinant of fertility frameworks holds that all demographic, socioeconomic, cultural, institutional, psychological, health and environmental factors (background variables) operate through the proximate or intermediate variables to affect fertility. The Bongaarts (1993) supply-demand framework posits that fertility (F) as measured by total fertility rate is an outcome of the interaction of supply of births (natural fertility), demand for births (wanted fertility) and degree of fertility preference implementation (an index, which measures the extent to which people have been able to implement their fertility preferences). The degree of preference implementation is in turn dependent on cost of fertility regulation and that of unwanted childbearing. The husbands’ family planning attitude and desired number of children were incorporated into the latter framework to recognize and bring out the crucial roles of the males in eventual fertility outcomes. The 1990, 1999 and 2003 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) data sets for men, women and couples were used. The methodology of the three NDHS is not too different from each other. They are nationally representative cross-sectional survey of women between the ages of 15 and 49 in 1990, 1999 and 2003 and men between 15 and 64 in 1999 and 15-59 in the 2003 survey. Twenty-four focus group discussions were also conducted among the sexes across the country to gain better insight and understanding into the issues examined. Focus group research is based on facilitating an organized discussion with a group of individuals selected because they were believed to be representative of some class. The discussion is used to bring out insights and understandings in ways, which cannot be captured by questionnaire. The focus group discussions (FGD) are also national in scope. Participants were drawn from the Northern, South Eastern and South Western regions of the country. The study population consisted of 8,781; 8,199 and 7,620 women aged 15-49 interviewed during the 1990, 1999 and 2003 NDHS, respectively. In addition, 2,584 men aged 15-64 and 2,346 men aged 15-59 interviewed during the 1999 and 2003 NDHS, respectively were used. One thousand, one hundred and sixty-eight (1,168) couples’ records derived from the 2003 NDHS and 1,280 (constructed) couples’ records for 1999 were also used. A total of eighty-nine (89) men and eighty-five (85) women participated in the twenty-four (24) focus group discussion sessions. To achieve the research objectives, a wide range of analysis was carried out in the study. In the estimation of all means and medians, the Kaplan Meier survival analysis is used. Some other estimations were done using specific formulations developed for the purpose. Thirty-six binary logistic regression models were also fitted to bring out spousal influences on each other’s attitude to family planning and desired number of children. Lastly, the focus group discussion sessions were analysed by themes to give better understanding into the issues examined. Five hypotheses were tested in the study. There was a general decline in the age specific fertility rates (ASFR) between 1990 and 2003 in all the age groups. This is reflected in the total fertility rate (TFR) for the country as a whole, which declined from 6.32 in 1990 to 5.82 in 2003. The national average masks large variations in the fertility levels between subgroups in the country. The women in the North generally have higher number of children than their Southern counterparts. This is particularly marked in the early childbearing years. Fertility levels are also higher among rural residents compared to those in the urban area. Substantial differences equally exist in the fertility levels of women by their level of education with fertility being negatively associated with level of education. A comparison of the past and current fertility also confirms that fertility has been on the decline in the country. Age at first and last births have been declining and the differentials between the two show that the number of years spent in childbearing is decreasing. Non-marital birth was also found to be increasing over time but at a level below six percent and with no identifiable educational or regional pattern. Teenage motherhood is equally declining both nationally and regionally and is relatively high among teenagers from the rural area and those with less than secondary level of education. The proportion of women that progress from one parity to another decreases as parity increases and no socially imposed optimum number of children is observed (although there is a political four-child policy in existence) among the Nigerian women. Apart from age of mother at the birth of child, which has a positive association with median length of birth interval and the surviving status of preceding child (which is understandably shorter if the preceding child is dead), length of birth interval by other characteristics shows no significant variation across sub groups. Age at first marriage remained between 16 and 17 over the years. This is lower for respondents from the rural, the North and for those with less than secondary level of education. For age at first sexual intercourse, it increased over time in the age groups. Respondents from the North and rural area however initiated sexual intercourse earlier and age at first sexual intercourse increases with level of education. Among the proximate determinant indices, the index of postpartum insusceptibility has the greatest inhibiting effect, followed by that of marriage/sexually active, contraception and then sterility. In the Bongaarts model, the indices reduced total fecundity by 12.46 births in the total sample of married women in 1990; 8.90 births in 1999 and 9.45 births in 2003 while the indices jointly reduced potential fertility by 17.69 births in the total sample of sexually active women in 1990; 16.06 births in 1999 and 16.50 births in 2003 in the Stover’s reformulation. The number of children desired marginally increased over time. This could have been affected by the high proportion of non-response especially in the 1990 survey. The desired number of children is positively related to age and number of surviving children while it is negatively related to education. Number of children desired is found to be lower among urban residents and respondents from the Southern part of the country and highest among currently married women. The focus group discussion sessions also show that people have been revising the number of children they are having downward due to ‘supposed’ economic hardship in the country and the need to give quality education, training and care to the children. However, their desire remain high. The extent, to which fertility preference is achieved, is generally high and increasing over the years in the total sample of married women with some variations in the sub groups. It is higher in the urban compared to the rural; increases with level of education, lowest in the North East and highest in the South West. Surprisingly, the extent to which concordant couples achieve their fertility preferences was lower than that of discordant couples. The fitted logistic models showed no evidence of the husbands having an upper hand in the number of children desired by the wives or on their attitude to family planning and vice versa. While the husbands play greater role in fertility decision-making in households, who has the upper hand between the husbands and the wives in actual fertility outcome was not conclusive in this study. Knowledge about family planning methods and their availability is high. The costs of fertility regulation in terms of its social, economic and in particular health components as well as obstacles to the use of fertility regulation methods were highlighted. The psychological, health, social and more frequently the economic costs of unwanted childbearing were also brought out. The responses to questions on pregnancy wantedness was also validated in this study as people generally acknowledged the circumstance of the birth of additional child(ren) as accidental. Two of the five hypotheses proposed were confirmed. One, the hypothesis that ‘the degree of fertility preference implementation is higher in the south than in the North, higher among urban residents compared to the rural residents and increases as the level of education increases’ is supported by the results of the study. Two, that ‘the degree of fertility preference implementation is increasing and playing an increasing (a more positive) role in fertility changes in Nigeria’ is also supported. The study could not confirm that ‘the indices of marriage/sexual activity, postpartum insusceptibility and contraception (in that order) have the most inhibiting effect on fertility in Nigeria.’ The other two hypotheses could not be proven conclusively either. These were that ‘degree of fertility preference implementation is higher among couples with similar desired number of children than among discordant couples’ and ‘the Husbands have more influence on their wives’ family planning attitude and desired number of children than the wives have over their husbands’. These findings have programme and policy implications. For instance, although the reduction in the number of years spent in child bearing is welcome as a result of decline in the number of older women in active childbearing, the increasing entrance of women under the age of eighteen years is worrisome. This could impact negatively on school enrolment and retention as well as on the health of the women since it is recognised that women under the age of eighteen years is one of the four groups of women with higher risk of morbidity and mortality during pregnancy and childbirth. Despite the pertinent findings of this study, a number of study limitations can be identified. This include not identifying people who have achieved their desired fertility and those who have not and conducting in-depth interview with them to gain greater insight into their fertility decision-making, desire and behaviour. This aspect requires further detailed investigation. A number of programme, policy and research recommendations are made based on the findings of this study.

Natural disasters have previously been found to have a positive effect on fertility due to incentives to use births to replace children lost and insure against increased risk. Using a simple demand framework for children, this paper contributes to the literature by re-examining this interaction under a new set of methodological conditions through the inclusion of a wider spectrum of cases than often used in previous works. OLS fixed effects regressions are performed using data from Indonesia and no support for the hypothesis is found. The findings are robust and contrast with former research. To provide nuance and insight to the results, the wanted total fertility rate and the prevalence of contraceptive use are utilised as alternative dependent variables.

This thesis builds on previous United Nations’ research investigating factors affecting the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in six (6) states: Burkina Faso, Mexico, Morocco, Nepal, the Philippines, and Uganda. The present research, however, provides a broader assessment of the TFR and the potential causes of its decline by examining countries across nine (9) regions of the world – sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, South Asia, East Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, the Caribbean, the Pacific Islands, Eastern and Southeastern Europe, and the former Soviet Socialist Republics of the Commonwealth of Independent States. The present analyses are also conducted over time, specifically from 1960 through 2002. Five (5) primary hypotheses regarding factors affecting the Total Fertility Rate are examined using feasible generalized least squares regression analysis. First, foreign debt is hypothesized to have a positive relationship to TFR. That is, holding all else constant, as foreign debt increases, TFR is expected to increase as well. Foreign debt is operationalized first, as total external debt; second, as long-term debt, and third, as total debt service as a percentage of exports of goods and services. Second, foreign aid, the level of socioeconomic development, and the extent of females’ education are all hypothesized to have negative relationships to TFR. That is, all else constant, as foreign aid increases, TFR is expected to decrease. All else constant, as the level of socioeconomic development increases, TFR is also expected to decrease. All else constant, as the extent of females’ education increases, TFR is also expected to decrease. Foreign aid is operationalized as first, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) loans and International Development Agency (IDA) credits; and second, as official development assistance and official aid. The level of socioeconomic development is operationalized as the Gross National Income (GNI) per capita in terms of purchasing power parity. The extent of females’ education is operationalized as first, the adult female literacy rate (ages 15 and above), and second, as the ratio of young literate females to males (ages 15 – 24). Finally, whereas previous scholars have hypothesized that industrialization reduces TFR (the Western European “demographic transition” hypothesis), the present research proposes that this relationship may not hold in developing countries. This possibility is investigated by analyzing the relationships between TFR and first, the value added of agriculture (as a percentage of GDP); second, the value added of industry (also as a percentage of GDP); third, the value added of manufacturing as a percentage of GDP; and fourth, the value added of services as a percentage of GDP. The findings presented here suggest first, that the foreign debt and foreign aid have differing effects on TFR in different regions of the world. Second, the effects of socioeconomic development and females’ education are more consistent (than foreign debt and foreign aid) across the different regions – but intriguing variations still exist. Finally, it appears that, with very few exceptions, the Western European-based demographic transition model does not hold for non-Western and developing areas. Therefore, new, region-specific models of TFR need to be developed – and public policy needs to be based on these more accurate, more context-appropriate models.

這篇論文的目的在理論的探討及生育政策的轉變的基礎之下，了解文化、社會、經濟和生育之間的關係、台灣政府在生育方面的政策所扮演的角色及這些政策對台灣人口所造成的影響。由法國、德國、英國、美國及日本的經驗，我們可以知道生育政策在人口變遷扮演了一個非重要的角色，而這些成功或失敗的政策可成為政府將來制定相關政策時的參考。 / The purpose of this master thesis “The Study of Fertility Policy in Taiwan” is to examine the relation between culture, society, economy and fertility based upon theories and to introduce the transition of fertility policy, the role of the Taiwan government in influencing and regulating childbearing and assess the demographic impacts of population. Based on the experience of France, Germany, United Kingdom, United States and Japan, fertility policies play an important role in demographic transition and may provide a window into Taiwan’s future development. This study finds that low fertility is a widespread phenomenon in Taiwan and is expected to continue in the foreseeable future. Government policies, as in the cases of France and The United States, are effective in combating low fertility. France is a pioneer in providing financial rewards and services to families and children while minorities and immigration have contributed to increased fertility rates in United States. Without national subsidies and affordable childcare, Taiwan’s fertility policies have failed to maintain a replacement rate since 1983. Judging from policies and practices in advanced countries, Taiwan’s governments should foster a supportive working environment for women and families when they are having or raising children. Specifically, whether Taiwan’s birth rate can be pushed up will depend on measures that offer flexible work schedules, better subsidies for maternity leave, and affordable, high-quality day-care services for career women. Meanwhile, the government should also modulate the education system and redistribute education resources, re-evaluate the relationship between population and sustainable development, better utilize the ageing labor force and strengthen lifelong-learning for older workers.

Nonmarital and marital fertility in the Czech Republic and from international perspective. Trends, patterns and attitudes. Abstract The aim of this master thesis is to describe the development trends of marital and nonmarital fertility in the Czech Republic and to analyze selected indicators of fertility. As tools are used to certain methods of demographic analysis. The first part addressis the basic concepts related to the issue of marital and nonmarital fertility, data sources and a description of the historical development of nonmartial fertility. The analytical part include basic analysis of fertility by age, marital status, education, birth order and the decomposition of the total fertility rate and proportion of childern born outsider marriage in the Czech Republic and Austria too. Keywords: marital fertility, nonmarital fertility, decomposition, total fertility rate, value orientation

This thesis deals with the regional population projections. The theoretical part is divided into several chapters, which describe and explain the basic concepts, such as demographics, birth rate, death rate and more. There are also analyzed the actual projection methods and specifying formulas. Last but not least consulted on the population projection of the Czech Republic in 2050 and the most recent projections up to the year 2100th. Own part is about the screening for districts in South Bohemian region. Projections were prepared for districts: Ceske Budejovice, Cesky Krumlov, Jindrichuv Hradec, Prachatice, Pisek, Strakonice and Tabor. As evaluation indicators were elected, population, life expectancy, total fertility rate and the secondary sex ratio or even sex ratio. Projections for population and life expectancy has been created specially for men and women.

Analysing fertility developments in selected European countries between 1970 and 2014 using alternative methods Abstract Transversal fertility indices as the total fertility rate are distorted by tempo effect when timing of childbearing is changing. New indices as the tempo-adjusted total fertility rate remove this distortion and give another perspective on fertility trends in countries with present tempo effect. These countries are former Eastern Bloc countries and other European countries. This thesis uses the tempo-adjusted total fertility rate and data from Human Fertility Database to describe tempo distortion in fertility level in Sweden, Norway, Czechia, Slovakia, Estonia and Lithuania in period 1970-2014. A more detailed analysis by parity in Sweden and Czechia is conducted in the same period. Negative tempo effect has been present from 1970s in Sweden and Norway and then from 90s in the countries left with fertility postponement being very widespread. The tempo effect level in Sweden and Czechia was substantial at parity one and diminishing with higher parities. Keywords: fertility, timing, level, postponement, adjusted total fertility rate, tempo effect Number of characters without blank spaces: 138 653

Magister Philosophiae - MPhil / The purpose of this research is to study the effect of different demographic and socio economic factors on the contraceptive use among currently married women of age 15-49 in the two regions of Ethiopia, Amhara (17,214,056) and Oromiya (27,158,471). Data are obtained from the 2005 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS). Information on contraceptive use was provided by current use 1334 (14.7), future use 4017 (52.0), unmet need for spacing 1817 (20.0) and limiting 1249 (13.3) currently married women aged 15-49 interviewed in the 2005 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS). / South Africa

Impact of economic crisis on fertility level in EU member states Abstract The aim of this diploma thesis is to provide a detailed development overview of the selected indicators, i.e., GDP per capita, unemployment rate and total fertility rate, in the context of the Global Economic Crisis, which, on a European scale, started in 2008, and evaluate the impact of the crisis on fertility levels across EU countries. The diploma thesis further concerns itself with various approaches to the relation between economic development and fertility, briefly with the causes of the Global Economic Crisis and with family policy measures in response to worsening economic conditions. Using cluster and regression analyses, the relationship between the economic indicators and total fertility rates in relation to the onset of the crisis has been examined. Even though total fertility rates of individual EU countries were affected differently by the change of economic conditions, the results indicate that changes in unemployment rates affect fertility levels. The decline in fertility levels during the crisis, which occurred in most of the examined countries, is certainly the result of a large number of factors affecting reproductive behaviour. Nevertheless, the results suggest that the symptoms of the crisis significantly...

The aim of this thesis is to give an overview of the population (family) development from its start in the fifties of the twentieth century until today and to suggest its possible focus in the future. In the theoretical part, the development of family and pro-population precaution in the former Czechoslovakia is described, including international context. The next thing that the theoretical part deals with is the development of the states support of families after the Velvet Revolution in the context of economical a political changes. The analytical part of this thesis deals with the development of fertility using detailed demographic data of sectional and cohort analysis. The conclusion of this paper outlines possible direction of family politics which could ease the life of families, for example in the context of the reconciliation between family and work life.