This thesis examines the effects on demand, supply, imports, and prices of partial easing of sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) barriers to trade in the U.S. market in the case of Mexican avocados. The SPS Agreement plays a role in the avocado market studied here through its implications for negotiations between countries that have not utilized the formal channels of the WTO for resolving disputes. A quarantine in place from 1914 until very recently banned entry of Mexican avocados into the U.S. market on grounds of risk of pest infestation. Since the early 1970s this quarantine has been a cause of dispute between the Mexican and U.S. governments, resulting in elaborate evaluations of possible pest risks and risk mitigation procedures that might be carried out. However, after the initiation of negotiations for the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1991, the import ban was partially eased in 1995 allowing Mexico access to the Northeastern part of the U.S. during four winter months. After three years of successfully exporting without any pest outbreaks, Mexico requested increased access to an additional part of the U.S. market, which it was granted in 2001. This study develops a partial equilibrium trade model to investigate the effects that this increased access will have on the avocados markets. Hypothesized further increases in access are described, and their potential effects are evaluated as well. / Master of Science

Globally, China is the number one soybean importer, and the United States, Brazil, and Argentina are the top three soybean exporters. This research, based on the reverse residual demand model, developed and estimated a two-country partial equilibrium trade model to test who has stronger market power in the Chinese soybean import market. This two-country partial equilibrium trade model incorporates the U.S. residual soybean supply for China, the Chinese residual demand for U.S. soybeans, and the equilibrium condition, where the U.S. residual soybean supply equals the Chinese residual soybean demand. Data used in this research are monthly data from January 1999 to February 2005, 74 observations. Empirical results indicated that Chinese soybean importers have stronger market power relative to U.S. soybean exporters.This research also conducted the competitive analysis of the Chinese soybean import market by examining both annual and monthly data of Chinese soybean imports from the U.S. and South America (Brazil and Argentina). Results implied that the U.S. and South America are seasonal complementary soybean suppliers for China. Possible reasons include: 1) seasonal difference--the U.S. and South America have opposing growing seasons, i.e., different time periods to supply soybeans to markets; and 2) stronger market power of Chinese soybean importers–China's strategic choice, diversifying their soybean suppliers and reducing price increase risk, made the U.S. and South America complementary soybean suppliers to China.Additionally, this research compared the soybean export costs to China for the three countries. Results showed that Brazil has the greatest advantage for production costs, followed by Argentina and the U.S.; the U.S. has the greatest advantage for internal and international transportation and marketing costs, followed by Argentina and Brazil. In aggregate, the total soybean export costs for Brazil were the lowest and the export costs for Argentina were the highest, with U.S. costs between them.In terms of policy implications for the U.S. soybean industry facing strong competition from South America, we cannot expect that U.S. market share in the Chinese soybean import market can be expanded much. With the development of infrastructure in Brazil and Argentina, the U.S. advantage will become less and less. Therefore, if the U.S. soybean industry wants to keep its current position in the Chinese soybean import market, some governmental policy supports are still necessary.

This paper analyses the effects of enhanced trade between Austria and its four neighbouring Central and Eastern European countries (Czech Republic, Slovak Republic, Hungary, Slovenia) on sectoral production and regional welfare in Austria. The analysis is based on two distinct modelling traditions at the centre of regional science. The first model (a Fischer-Johansson Model of bilateral trade flows) is used to predict the volume and commodity composition of future trade flows based on a long term income scenario. The predicted long-term increases of the trade flows are huge. Exports rise by 190 % and imports by 160 % (compared to 1995). The effects of these trade flows on sectoral production and regional welfare in Austria are simulated by means of a multiregional computable general equilibrium model for the Austrian economy. The model contains the 9 Federal Provinces (NUTS-II). The likely implications of the projected trade flows are measured in terms of real income, which can be expected to rise by 1.2 %. The welfare gains will not necesarily be shared equally by all Federal Provinces. The results indicate a clear East-West pattern with the eastern regions of Austria gaining most. (authors' abstract) / Series: Discussion Papers of the Institute for Economic Geography and GIScience

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Master of Science / Department of Agricultural Economics / Michael W. Woolverton / Globally, the majority of countries now use genetically modified (GM) soybeans to produce oil and meal for livestock and human consumption. Japan, however, uses only Non-GM soybeans for direct human consumption of which more than 80% are imported from the U.S., Canada, and China. This research used the inverse residual demand model to estimate a two-country partial equilibrium trade model to test the existence of market power in the Japanese Non-GM soybean import market. The two-country partial equilibrium trade model incorporated the U.S. residual Non-GM soybean supply for Japan, the Japanese residual demand for U.S. Non-GM soybeans, and the equilibrium condition, where the U.S. residual Non-GM soybean supply equals the Japanese residual Non-GM soybean demand. Monthly data from January 2003 to December 2007 were used for the analysis. Empirical results indicated that U.S. Non-GM soybean exporters have stronger market power than Japanese Non-GM soybean importers. The results also indicate that Japanese consumers are willing to pay higher prices for soybeans, tofu, natto, miso, and other all soy food products.

Afin de mieux tirer profit de l’Accord d’Association entre l’Amérique centrale et l’Union européenne - UE -, cette étude examine les théories et "l’état de l’art" en matière d’Accords de commerce régionaux pour approfondir ensuite dans les relations commerciales entre l’Amérique centrale et l’UE, leur évolution et leurs déterminants, ainsi que les résultats des négociations de l’Accord, pris comme base pour identifier les opportunités et les défis commerciaux qui se présentent à la région centraméricaine, dans la perspective d’une zone de libre commerce dans le cadre de cet Accord.C’est pourquoi les résultats des tests formels se référant aux relations commerciales entre les deux régions sont décrits en appliquant à un modèle de commerce deux points de vue économétriques, le Modèle de Gravité et la technique de Données de Panel.On observe que pour tirer profit des opportunités de cet Accord, les pays centraméricains se voient face à la nécessité d’effectuer des changements structurels en différents domaines, et parmi ceux-ci des changements visant à augmenter, diversifier et améliorer la qualité de la production exportable, afin de satisfaire la demande et de respecter les normes et les régulations requises pour accéder au marché européen.Pour conclure, un grand nombre de facteurs qui ont limité les exportations de l’Amérique centrale vers l’UE sont macroéconomiques et de caractère structurel, et la réduction des tarifs douaniers en soi n’est pas une condition suffisante pour garantir que l’Accord sera profitable, étant donné que ses bénéfices dépendront des changements qui se produiront en Amérique centrale. / With the object of taking advantage of the Partnership Agreement between Central America and European Union –EU- the study reviews the theories and the “state of the art” regarding Regional Trade Agreements in order to deepen trade relations between Central America and the EU. Its evolution and its determinants as well as the results of the negotiations of the Agreement, as the basis to identity trade opportunities and challenges presented for the Central American region in light of the establishment of a free trade zone within the framework of above-mentioned agreement.For the above-mentioned reason, the results of formal tests regarding trade relations between the two regions are described applying a trade model with two econometric approaches: the Gravity Model and Panel Data technique.As a result, it was identified that in order to take advantage of the opportunities of the Agreement, Central American countries will need to carry out structural changes in different areas among which the ones aimed at increasing, diversifying, and improving the exportable production quality, in order to satisfy the demand and to comply with the norms and regulations necessary to access the European market.It is concluded that many of the factors that have limited Central American exports to the European Union are the ones related to macroeconomics and of a structural nature and that the issue of tariff reduction by itself it is not a sufficient condition to guarantee taking advantage of the Agreement due to the fact that its benefit will be measure in light of the changes that will take place in Central America.