by Stanley B. Gershwin and Loren K. Platzman. / "September, 1984." / Bibliography: leaf 4.

As traffic congestion continues to worsen in large urban areas, solutions are urgently sought. However, transportation planning models, which estimate traffic volumes on transportation network links, are often unable to realistically consider travel time delays at intersections. Introducing signal controls in models often result in significant and unstable changes in network attributes, which, in turn, leads to instability of models. Ignoring the effect of delays at intersections makes the model output inaccurate and unable to predict travel time. To represent traffic conditions in a network more accurately, planning models should be capable of arriving at a network solution based on travel costs that are consistent with the intersection delays due to signal controls. This research attempts to achieve this goal by optimizing signal controls and estimating intersection delays accordingly, which are then used in traffic assignment. Simultaneous optimization of traffic routing and signal controls has not been accomplished in real-world applications of traffic assignment. To this end, a delay model dealing with five major types of intersections has been developed using artificial neural networks (ANNs). An ANN architecture consists of interconnecting artificial neurons. The architecture may either be used to gain an understanding of biological neural networks, or for solving artificial intelligence problems without necessarily creating a model of a real biological system. The ANN delay model has been trained using extensive simulations based on TRANSYT-7F signal optimizations. The delay estimates by the ANN delay model have percentage root-mean-squared errors (%RMSE) that are less than 25.6%, which is satisfactory for planning purposes. Larger prediction errors are typically associated with severely oversaturated conditions. A combined system has also been developed that includes the artificial neural network (ANN) delay estimating model and a user-equilibrium (UE) traffic assignment model. The combined system employs the Frank-Wolfe method to achieve a convergent solution. Because the ANN delay model provides no derivatives of the delay function, a Mesh Adaptive Direct Search (MADS) method is applied to assist in and expedite the iterative process of the Frank-Wolfe method. The performance of the combined system confirms that the convergence of the solution is achieved, although the global optimum may not be guaranteed.

Urban travel demand forecasting and traffic assignment models are important tools in developing transportation plans for a metropolitan area. These tools provide forecasts of urban travel patterns under various transportation supply conditions. The predicted travel patterns then provide useful information in planning the transportation system. Traffic assignment is the assignment of origin-destination flows to transportation routes, based on factors that affect route choice. The urban travel demand models, developed in the mid 1950s, provided accurate and precise answers to the planning and policy issues being addressed at that time, which mainly revolved around expansion of the highway system to meet the rapidly growing travel demand. However, the urban transportation planning and analysis have undergone changes over the years, while the structure of the travel demand models has remained largely unchanged except for the introduction of disaggregate choice models beginning in the mid-1970s. Legislative and analytical requirements that exceed the capabilities of these models and methodologies have driven new technical approaches such as TRANSIMS. The Transportation Analysis and Simulation System, or TRANSIMS, is an integrated system of travel forecasting models designed to give transportation planners accurate, and complete information on traffic impacts, congestion, and pollution. It was developed by the Los Alamos National Laboratory to address new transportation and air quality forecasting procedures required by the Clean Air Act, the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act, and other regulations. TRANSIMS includes six different modules: Population Synthesizer, Activity Generator, Route Planner, Microsimulator, Emissions Estimator, and Feedback. This package has been under development since 1994 and needs significant improvements within some of its modules. This dissertation enhances the interaction between the Route Planner and the Microsimulator modules to improve the dynamic traffic assignment process in TRANSIMS, and the Emissions Estimator module. The traditional trip assignment is static in nature. Static assignment models assume that traffic is in a steady-state, link volumes are time invariant, the time to traverse a link depends only on the number of vehicles on that link, and that the vehicle queues are stacked vertically and do not traverse to the upstream links in the network. Thus, a matrix of steady-state origin-destination (O-D) trip rates is assigned simultaneously to shortest paths from each origin to a destination. To address the static traffic assignment problems, dynamic traffic assignment models are proposed. In dynamic traffic assignment models, the demand is allowed to be time varying so that the number of vehicles passing through a link and the corresponding link travel times become time-dependent. In contrast with the static case, the dynamic traffic assignment problem is still relatively unexplored and a precise formulation is not clearly established. Most models in the literature do not present a solution algorithm and among the presented methods, most of them are not suitable for large-scale networks. Among the suggested solution methodologies that claim to be applicable to large-scale networks, very few methods have been actually tested on such large-scale networks. Furthermore, most of these models have stability and convergence problem. A solution methodology for computing dynamic user equilibria in large-scale transportation networks is presented in this dissertation. This method, which stems from the convex simplex method, routes one traveler at a time on the network and updates the link volumes and link travel times after each routing. Therefore, this method is dynamic in two aspects: it is time-dependent, and it routes travelers based on the most updated link travel times. To guarantee finite termination, an additional stopping criterion is adopted. The proposed model is implemented within TRANSIMS, the Transportation Analysis and Simulation System, and is applied to a large-scale network. The current user equilibrium computation in TRANSIMS involves simply an iterative process between the Route Planner and the MicroSimulator modules. In the first run, the Route Planner uses free-flow speeds on each link to estimate the travel time to find the shortest paths, which is not accurate because there exist other vehicles on the link and so, the speed is not simply equal to the free-flow speed. Therefore, some paths might not be the shortest paths due to congestion. The Microsimulator produces the new travel times based on accurate vehicle speeds. These travel times are fed back to the Route Planner, and the new routes are determined as the shortest paths for selected travelers. This procedure does not necessarily lead to a user equilibrium solution. The existing problems in this procedure are addressed in our proposed algorithm as follows. TRANSIMS routes one person at a time but does not update link travel times. Therefore, each traveler is routed regardless of other travelers on the network. The current stopping criterion is based only on visualization and the procedure might oscillate. Also, the current traffic assignment spends a huge amount of time by iterating frequently between the Route Planner and the Microsimulator. For example in the Portland study, 21 iterations between the Route Planner and the Microsimulator were performed that took 33:29 hours using three 500-MHZ CPUs (parallel processing). These difficulties are addressed by distributing travelers on the network in a better manner from the beginning in the Route Planner to avoid the frequent iterations between the Route Planner and the Microsimulator that are required to redistribute them. By updating the link travel times using a link performance function, a near-equilibrium is obtained only in one iteration. Travelers are distributed in the network with regard to other travelers in the first iteration; therefore, there is no need to redistribute them using the time-consuming iterative process. To avoid problems caused by link performance function usage, an iterative procedure between the current Route Planner and the Microsimulator is performed and a user equilibrium is found after a few iterations. Using an appropriate descent-based stopping criterion, the finite termination of the procedure is guaranteed. An illustration using real-data pertaining to the transportation network of Portland, Oregon, is presented along with comparative analyses. TRANSIMS framework contains a vehicle emissions module that estimates tailpipe emissions for light and heavy duty vehicles and evaporative emissions for light duty vehicles. It uses as inputs the emissions arrays obtained the Comprehensive Modal Emissions Model (CMEM). This dissertation describes and validates the framework of TRANSIMS for modeling vehicle emissions. Specifically, it identifies an error in the model calculations and enhances the emission modeling formulation. Furthermore, the dissertation compares the TRANSIMS emission estimates to on-road emission-measurements and other state-of-the-art emission models including the VT-Micro and CMEM models. / Ph. D.

A identificação dos segmentos críticos da rede viária é um conhecimento básico que todo planejador de transportes deve ter sobre a rede viária. É inevitável a ocorrência de incidentes e eventos de redução da capacidade nos elementos da rede. O efeito de acidentes e obstruções em segmentos críticos da rede ocasionam impactos que prejudicam o desempenho da rede. Este estudo foi desenvolvido com o apoio do modelo de alocação de tráfego do software VISUM (versão 2015) e propõe um método para determinar a importância de cada segmento da rede viária, a identificação de segmentos críticos da rede e a avaliação de sua obstrução de forma estática e dinâmica. Para isso, são utilizados diversos indicadores de desempenho da rede viária. O método foi aplicado na região do Litoral Norte do Rio Grande do Sul, utilizando os dados de tráfego fornecidos pela CONCEPA TRIUNFO, DAER e DNIT. A determinação da importância de cada segmento decorreu da avaliação do impacto na rede causado pela obstrução do próprio segmento. Através do método proposto neste estudo foi possível identificar o segmento crítico da rede viária estudada e, de forma qualitativa, verificar a extensão da obstrução desse segmento nas análises estática e dinâmica Verificou-se que o indicador diferença do total de tempo despendido na rede é o indicador que mais apresenta crescimento com o incremento da demanda, não apresenta alterações de priorização dos segmentos frente a variações de intensidade e sentido da demanda. Os resultados deste estudo mostraram que o segmento crítico da rede pertence a BR-101 entre os municípios de Osório e Terra de Areia. O método de hierarquização proposto independe do sentido e da intensidade da demanda, e está sujeito a mais de uma métrica para avaliar o segmento crítico. Estes resultados podem subsidiar o planejamento de transportes, identificando trechos críticos da rede viária que necessitam de mais atenção dos gestores e apontando medidas de operação no caso de eventos disruptivos nos trechos críticos. / Identifying the most important link of the network is essential knowledge that the transport planners should have over the network. Incidents and events of capacity reduction in network elements are inevitable. The effect of accidents and obstructions on critical network links causes impacts that hamper network performance. This study was developed with support of VISUM (version 2015) traffic assignment model software with proposes a method to determinate each network link importance level, to identify the critical link and to measure the critical link blockage impact on network. For this, several road network performance indicators are used. The method was applied in the North Coast region of Rio Grande do Sul, using traffic data provided by CONCEPA TRIUNFO, DAER and DNIT. The link level importance in define from the own link impact due its obstruction. The proposed method identified the most critical link of the studied network and verified the qualitative impact of its obstruction extent in the static and dynamic assignment analyses It was verified that the measure total spent time difference in the network is the most sensible measure that growth with a demand increase, this measure does not present changes the link importance rank against variations of intensity and direction of demand flow changes. The results of this study show that the critical link of the network belongs to the BR-101 highway between the municipalities of Osório and Terra de Areia. The proposed hierarchical method developed with several metrics measures fond the critical link in an independent demand direction and intensity analysis. The findings may support transport planners to identify the most critical arc of a network. To better implement resources of road management and repairs. Also identify where the operation measures may be implanted in face a disruptive event on a critical link.

A identificação dos segmentos críticos da rede viária é um conhecimento básico que todo planejador de transportes deve ter sobre a rede viária. É inevitável a ocorrência de incidentes e eventos de redução da capacidade nos elementos da rede. O efeito de acidentes e obstruções em segmentos críticos da rede ocasionam impactos que prejudicam o desempenho da rede. Este estudo foi desenvolvido com o apoio do modelo de alocação de tráfego do software VISUM (versão 2015) e propõe um método para determinar a importância de cada segmento da rede viária, a identificação de segmentos críticos da rede e a avaliação de sua obstrução de forma estática e dinâmica. Para isso, são utilizados diversos indicadores de desempenho da rede viária. O método foi aplicado na região do Litoral Norte do Rio Grande do Sul, utilizando os dados de tráfego fornecidos pela CONCEPA TRIUNFO, DAER e DNIT. A determinação da importância de cada segmento decorreu da avaliação do impacto na rede causado pela obstrução do próprio segmento. Através do método proposto neste estudo foi possível identificar o segmento crítico da rede viária estudada e, de forma qualitativa, verificar a extensão da obstrução desse segmento nas análises estática e dinâmica Verificou-se que o indicador diferença do total de tempo despendido na rede é o indicador que mais apresenta crescimento com o incremento da demanda, não apresenta alterações de priorização dos segmentos frente a variações de intensidade e sentido da demanda. Os resultados deste estudo mostraram que o segmento crítico da rede pertence a BR-101 entre os municípios de Osório e Terra de Areia. O método de hierarquização proposto independe do sentido e da intensidade da demanda, e está sujeito a mais de uma métrica para avaliar o segmento crítico. Estes resultados podem subsidiar o planejamento de transportes, identificando trechos críticos da rede viária que necessitam de mais atenção dos gestores e apontando medidas de operação no caso de eventos disruptivos nos trechos críticos. / Identifying the most important link of the network is essential knowledge that the transport planners should have over the network. Incidents and events of capacity reduction in network elements are inevitable. The effect of accidents and obstructions on critical network links causes impacts that hamper network performance. This study was developed with support of VISUM (version 2015) traffic assignment model software with proposes a method to determinate each network link importance level, to identify the critical link and to measure the critical link blockage impact on network. For this, several road network performance indicators are used. The method was applied in the North Coast region of Rio Grande do Sul, using traffic data provided by CONCEPA TRIUNFO, DAER and DNIT. The link level importance in define from the own link impact due its obstruction. The proposed method identified the most critical link of the studied network and verified the qualitative impact of its obstruction extent in the static and dynamic assignment analyses It was verified that the measure total spent time difference in the network is the most sensible measure that growth with a demand increase, this measure does not present changes the link importance rank against variations of intensity and direction of demand flow changes. The results of this study show that the critical link of the network belongs to the BR-101 highway between the municipalities of Osório and Terra de Areia. The proposed hierarchical method developed with several metrics measures fond the critical link in an independent demand direction and intensity analysis. The findings may support transport planners to identify the most critical arc of a network. To better implement resources of road management and repairs. Also identify where the operation measures may be implanted in face a disruptive event on a critical link.

A identificação dos segmentos críticos da rede viária é um conhecimento básico que todo planejador de transportes deve ter sobre a rede viária. É inevitável a ocorrência de incidentes e eventos de redução da capacidade nos elementos da rede. O efeito de acidentes e obstruções em segmentos críticos da rede ocasionam impactos que prejudicam o desempenho da rede. Este estudo foi desenvolvido com o apoio do modelo de alocação de tráfego do software VISUM (versão 2015) e propõe um método para determinar a importância de cada segmento da rede viária, a identificação de segmentos críticos da rede e a avaliação de sua obstrução de forma estática e dinâmica. Para isso, são utilizados diversos indicadores de desempenho da rede viária. O método foi aplicado na região do Litoral Norte do Rio Grande do Sul, utilizando os dados de tráfego fornecidos pela CONCEPA TRIUNFO, DAER e DNIT. A determinação da importância de cada segmento decorreu da avaliação do impacto na rede causado pela obstrução do próprio segmento. Através do método proposto neste estudo foi possível identificar o segmento crítico da rede viária estudada e, de forma qualitativa, verificar a extensão da obstrução desse segmento nas análises estática e dinâmica Verificou-se que o indicador diferença do total de tempo despendido na rede é o indicador que mais apresenta crescimento com o incremento da demanda, não apresenta alterações de priorização dos segmentos frente a variações de intensidade e sentido da demanda. Os resultados deste estudo mostraram que o segmento crítico da rede pertence a BR-101 entre os municípios de Osório e Terra de Areia. O método de hierarquização proposto independe do sentido e da intensidade da demanda, e está sujeito a mais de uma métrica para avaliar o segmento crítico. Estes resultados podem subsidiar o planejamento de transportes, identificando trechos críticos da rede viária que necessitam de mais atenção dos gestores e apontando medidas de operação no caso de eventos disruptivos nos trechos críticos. / Identifying the most important link of the network is essential knowledge that the transport planners should have over the network. Incidents and events of capacity reduction in network elements are inevitable. The effect of accidents and obstructions on critical network links causes impacts that hamper network performance. This study was developed with support of VISUM (version 2015) traffic assignment model software with proposes a method to determinate each network link importance level, to identify the critical link and to measure the critical link blockage impact on network. For this, several road network performance indicators are used. The method was applied in the North Coast region of Rio Grande do Sul, using traffic data provided by CONCEPA TRIUNFO, DAER and DNIT. The link level importance in define from the own link impact due its obstruction. The proposed method identified the most critical link of the studied network and verified the qualitative impact of its obstruction extent in the static and dynamic assignment analyses It was verified that the measure total spent time difference in the network is the most sensible measure that growth with a demand increase, this measure does not present changes the link importance rank against variations of intensity and direction of demand flow changes. The results of this study show that the critical link of the network belongs to the BR-101 highway between the municipalities of Osório and Terra de Areia. The proposed hierarchical method developed with several metrics measures fond the critical link in an independent demand direction and intensity analysis. The findings may support transport planners to identify the most critical arc of a network. To better implement resources of road management and repairs. Also identify where the operation measures may be implanted in face a disruptive event on a critical link.

Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) is gaining wider acceptance among agencies and practitioners because it serves as a more realistic representation of real-world traffic phenomena than static traffic assignment. Many metropolitan planning organizations and transportation departments are beginning to utilize DTA to predict traffic flows within their networks when conducting traffic analysis or evaluating management measures. To analyze DTA-based optimization applications, it is critical to obtain the dual (or gradient) information as dual information can typically be employed as a search direction in algorithmic design. However, very limited number of approaches can be used to estimate network-wide dual information while maintaining the potential to scale. This dissertation investigates the theoretical/practical aspects of DTA-based dual approximation techniques and explores DTA applications in the context of various transportation models, such as transportation network design, off-line DTA capacity calibration and dynamic congestion pricing. Each of the later entities is formulated as bi-level programs. Transportation Network Design Problem (NDP) aims to determine the optimal network expansion policy under a given budget constraint. NDP is bi-level by nature and can be considered a static case of a Stackelberg game, in which transportation planners (leaders) attempt to optimize the overall transportation system while road users (followers) attempt to achieve their own maximal benefit. The first part of this dissertation attempts to study NDP by combining a decomposition-based algorithmic structure with dual variable approximation techniques derived from linear programming theory. One of the critical elements in considering any real-time traffic management strategy requires assessing network traffic dynamics. Traffic is inherently dynamic, since it features congestion patterns that evolve over time and queues that form and dissipate over a planning horizon. It is therefore imperative to calibrate the DTA model such that it can accurately reproduce field observations and avoid erroneous flow predictions when evaluating traffic management strategies. Satisfactory calibration of the DTA model is an onerous task due to the large number of variables that can be modified and the intensive computational resources required. In this dissertation, the off-line DTA capacity calibration problem is studied in an attempt to devise a systematic approach for effective model calibration. Congestion pricing has increasingly been seen as a powerful tool for both managing congestion and generating revenue for infrastructure maintenance and sustainable development. By carefully levying tolls on roadways, a more efficient and optimal network flow pattern can be generated. Furthermore, congestion pricing acts as an effective travel demand management strategy that reduces peak period vehicle trips by encouraging people to shift to more efficient modes such as transit. Recently, with the increase in the number of highway Build-Operate-Transfer (B-O-T) projects, tolling has been interpreted as an effective way to generate revenue to offset the construction and maintenance costs of infrastructure. To maximize the benefits of congestion pricing, a careful analysis based on dynamic traffic conditions has to be conducted before determining tolls, since sub-optimal tolls can significantly worsen the system performance. Combining a network-wide time-varying toll analysis together with an efficient solution-building approach will be one of the main contributions of this dissertation. The problems mentioned above are typically framed as bi-level programs, which pose considerable challenges in theory and as well as in application. Due to the non-convex solution space and inherent NP-complete complexity, a majority of recent research efforts have focused on tackling bi-level programs using meta-heuristics. These approaches allow for the efficient exploration of complex solution spaces and the identification of potential global optima. Accordingly, this dissertation also attempts to present and compare several meta-heuristics through extensive numerical experiments to determine the most effective and efficient meta-heuristic, as a means of better investigating realistic network scenarios. / text

Transportation planning and urban development in the United States have synchronously emerged over the past few decades to encompass goals associated with sustainability, improved connectivity, complete streets and mitigation of environmental impacts. These goals have evolved in tandem with some of the relatively more traditional objectives of supply-side improvements such as infrastructure and capacity expansion. Apart from the numerous federal regulations in the US transportation sector that reassert sustainability motivations, metropolitan planning organizations and civic societies face similar concerns in their decision-making and policy implementation. However, overall transportation planning to incorporate these wide-ranging objectives requires characterization of large-scale transportation systems and traffic flow through them, which is dynamic in nature, computationally intense and a non-trivial problem. Thus, these contemporary questions lie at the interface of transportation planning, urban development and sustainability planning. They have the potential of being effectively addressed through state-of-the-art transportation modeling tools, which is the main motivation and philosophy of this thesis. From the research standpoint, some of these issues have been addressed in the past typically from the urban design, built-environment, public health and vehicle technology and mostly qualitative perspectives, but not as much from the traffic engineering and transportation systems perspective---a gap in literature which the thesis aims to fill. Specifically, it makes use of simulation-based dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) to develop modeling paradigms and integrated frameworks to seamlessly incorporate these in the transportation planning process. In addition to just incorporating them in the planning process, DTA-based paradigms are able to accommodate numerous spatial and temporal dynamics associated with system traffic, which more traditional static models are not able to. Besides, these features are critical in the context of the planning questions of this study. Specifically, systemic impacts of suburban and urban street pattern developments typically found in US cities in past decades of the 20th century have been investigated. While street connectivity and design evolution is mostly regulated through local codes and subdivision ordinances, its impacts on traffic and system congestion requires modeling and quantitative evidence which are explored in this thesis. On the environmental impact mitigation side, regional emission inventories from the traffic sector have also been quantified. Novel modeling approaches for the street connectivity-accessibility problem are proposed. An integrated framework using the Environmental Protection Agency's regulatory MOVES model has been developed, combining it with mesoscopic-level DTA simulation. Model demonstrations and applications on real and large-sized study areas reveal that different levels of connectivity and accessibility have substantial impacts on system-wide traffic---as connectivity levels reduce, traffic and congestion metrics show a gradually increasing trend. As regards emissions, incorporation of dynamic features leads to more realistic emissions inventory generation compared to default databases and modules, owing to consideration of the added dynamic features of system traffic and region-specific conditions. Inter-dependencies among these sustainability planning questions through the common linkage of traffic dynamics are also highlighted. In summary, the modeling frameworks, analyses and findings in the thesis contribute to some ongoing debates in planning studies and practice regarding ideal urban designs, provisions of sustainability and complete streets. Furthermore, the integrated emissions modeling framework, in addition to sustainability-related contributions, provides important tools to aid MPOs and state agencies in preparation of state implementation plans for demonstrating conformity to national ambient air-quality standards in their regions and counties. This is a critical condition for them to receive federal transportation funding. / text

Travel time reliability is deemed as one of the most important factors affecting travelers’ route choice decisions. However, existing practices mostly consider average travel time only. This dissertation establishes a methodology framework to overcome such limitation. Semi-standard deviation is first proposed as the measure of reliability to quantify the risk under uncertain conditions on the network. This measure only accounts for travel times that exceed certain pre-specified benchmark, which offers a better behavioral interpretation and theoretical foundation than some currently used measures such as standard deviation and the probability of on-time arrival. Two path finding models are then developed by integrating both average travel time and semi-standard deviation. The single objective model tries to minimize the weighted sum of average travel time and semi-standard deviation, while the multi-objective model treats them as separate objectives and seeks to minimize them simultaneously. The multi-objective formulation is preferred to the single objective model, because it eliminates the need for prior knowledge of reliability ratios. It offers an additional benefit of providing multiple attractive paths for traveler’s further decision making. The sampling based approach using archived travel time data is applied to derive the path semi-standard deviation. The approach provides a nice workaround to the problem that there is no exact solution to analytically derive the measure. Through this process, the correlation structure can be implicitly accounted for while simultaneously avoiding the complicated link travel time distribution fitting and convolution process. Furthermore, the metaheuristic algorithm and stochastic dominance based approach are adapted to solve the proposed models. Both approaches address the issue where classical shortest path algorithms are not applicable due to non-additive semi-standard deviation. However, the stochastic dominance based approach is preferred because it is more computationally efficient and can always find the true optimal paths. In addition to semi-standard deviation, on-time arrival probability and scheduling delay measures are also investigated. Although these three measures share similar mathematical structures, they exhibit different behaviors in response to large deviations from the pre-specified travel time benchmark. Theoretical connections between these measures and the first three stochastic dominance rules are also established. This enables us to incorporate on-time arrival probability and scheduling delay measures into the methodology framework as well.

Thesis. 1978. M.S.--Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Alfred P. Sloan School of Management. / MICROFICHE COPY AVAILABLE IN ARCHIVES AND DEWEY. / Bibliography: leaves 148-149. / M.S.