Reaching agreements over water management on transboundary rivers is a complex yet necessary endeavour to assure that humans can live within the limits of available resources. The myriad of challenges is both physical and social in nature; the uncertainty of water availability due to natural hydrologic variability is often increased by the involvement of multiple management institutions. Jurisdictions of control are typically defined by political borders, and thus they represent distinct geographic domains and interests. Increasing scarcity, driven by rapidly expanding populations and our growing awareness of climatic non-stationary, increases the urgency to find agreements among these institutions. Although the need is significant and growing, a lack of available approaches exist that considers the physical, technical and political dynamics to address these complex challenges. This thesis describes novel analytical methods to engage in the complex political realm of transboundary river management. Building from an engineering systems analysis approach to engage this topic, the main hypotheses of this thesis are: (1) Existing analytical approaches for water resource development are useful but often constrained in a transboundary negotiation context, and (2) cooperation among co-riparian water management institutions can be significantly increased with strategic implementation of analytical tools to jointly manage current and future risks. To test this hypothesis, this thesis presents an analytical approach that (1) examines previous applications of water resource models to identify their perceived contribution to managing transboundary rivers, (2) develops a new modelling framework that engages with transboundary negotiations, and (3) incorporates methods for risk-based decision making to evaluate the benefits, opportunities and trade-offs of cooperation among co-riparian states. A retrospective analysis is conducted on the Colorado and Murray-Darling River Basins to understand lessons learned from recent applications of analytical modelling tools. New methods are then developed and applied to the rapidly changing Eastern Nile River Basin. The ongoing construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and the implications on downstream countries of Sudan and Egypt provides the context and a relevant case for testing the methods and evaluating the hypotheses. Results from this thesis demonstrate the distinct advantages of an early development of system-wide analytical tools within a transboundary context, which is made available to all parties. Conversely, the challenges of reconciling multiple models used by different institutions after full allocation is reached in a basin is a significant barrier to cooperative management. Results also demonstrate the advantages of developing an analytical tool that is sufficiently accurate, transparent and flexible to seek creative solutions, and the need to select an appropriate breadth and depth of model design that conveys its credibility, saliency and legitimacy to support a decision-making process. The appropriate design of tools to consider multiple future hydrologic scenarios can shift a discourse from rigid water allocations to considering the effects of new developments in terms of changes to risks, and to allow stakeholders to decide whether these changes are tolerable when juxtaposed with the benefits that new infrastructure provides. Finally, the results show how risks among multiple stakeholders can be evaluated under expanding uncertainties, and cooperative solutions can be sought to minimise or balance these risks. The application of the proposed methods to the Eastern Nile Basin indicates that solutions are indeed possible that benefit all three countries. A number of cooperative solutions are identified that suggest operational rules for the new and existing infrastructure. These operations can be responsive to variable climatic conditions and thus encourage dynamic cooperation. In this light, the developments in Ethiopia need not be a risk, but can result in substantial benefits to the downstream countries if agreements can be reached. Embedding highly adaptable analytical tools within a negotiation process can help to overcome the challenges faced at this historic point on the Nile River.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(地球環境学) / 甲第23591号 / 地環博第218号 / 新制||地環||42(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院地球環境学舎地球環境学専攻 / (主査)教授 宇佐美 誠, 教授 諸富 徹, 准教授 吉野 章 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Global Environmental Studies / Kyoto University / DGAM

Water resource management is a multifaceted issue that becomes more complex when considering multiple nations’ interdependence upon a single shared transboundary river basin. With over 200 transboundary river basins worldwide shared by two or more countries, it is important to develop tools to allow riparian countries to cooperatively manage these shared and often limited water resources. Cooperative game theory provides tools for determining if cooperation can exist across jurisdictional boundaries through a suite of mathematical tools that measure the benefits of cooperation among basin stakeholders. Cooperative game theory is also useful for transboundary negotiation because it provides a range of solutions which will satisfy all players in the game and provides methods to fairly and equitably allocate the gains of that cooperation to all participating stakeholders, if that cooperation is shown to be possible. This dissertation applies cooperative game theory concepts to the Rio Grande/Bravo basin in North America as a case study. The Rio Grande/Bravo forms the 1,200 km border between the United States and Mexico. A comprehensive water resources planning model was developed for the basin including the major water users, water related infrastructure including reservoirs, and water policy logic related to the bi-national water sharing agreements. The water planning model is used to calculate the characteristic functions for the cooperative game analysis. For the Water Demand Reduction Game, the largest agricultural users, District 005, District 025 and the Texas Watermaster Section below Falcon were defined individual players. The cooperative analysis was between the individual players rather than the countries. In addition to the cooperative analysis, performance measures for water deliveries were calculated to determine if water delivery was improved to each player under the cooperative game. The results show that the amount of additional water to the downstream players may not be large enough to induce cooperation. The small amount of increase in water deliveries is related to the large system losses as the water travels downstream over a long distance and a division of water under the 1944 Treaty between the United States and Mexico. / text

Achieving global water sustainability through a resilient international legal architecture presents one of the most pressing challenges within our resource finite planet. A staggering 42 percent of the total land area of the earth is covered by transboundary river basins, where more than 40 percent of the global population lives and depends on the ecosystem services of the 286 transboundary river basins and 200 transboundary aquifers stretching across the political boundaries of 151 countries. There is already evidence of water resources becoming a source of conflict in many regions and constraining a whole myriad of securities – climate, human, environmental, food, economic, energy – on various levels of society. The international legal architecture to manage this critical natural resource is the overarching area of inquiry in this thesis, and requires improvement to address current and predicted future transboundary water challenges, conflicts and strengthen cooperation. Despite the establishment of around 690 river basin treaties, many of these agreements completely miss or provide unclear provisions on principles and rules of international water law. Until recently there was no legally binding global treaty on transboundary watercourses and customary international law has provided the default rules in the absence of agreements and facilitated the re-interpretation of older agreements in accordance with the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties. Now there are potentially two global treaties, with the recent entry into force of the 1997 UN Watercourses Convention and the global opening up of the 1992 pan-regional United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) Water Convention, to all UN member states. There is also a plethora of other international environmental legal and non-legally binding instruments, indirectly addressing international law relevant to transboundary watercourses and freshwater ecosystems. Legal regimes for the protection and use of international river basins cannot be interpreted and applied in isolation from other relevant norms of international environmental and general international law. This thesis seeks to understand the rising role and contribution of regional approaches relevant to international law on transboundary watercourses and freshwater ecosystems. More specifically it explores the contribution of the UNECE Water Convention and other relevant UNECE environmental instruments as a structurally distinctive ‘regime’. This thesis introduces a novel conception of a broader ‘UNECE water regime’ which includes the Water Convention, the Convention on Access to Information, Public Participation in Decision-making and Access to Justice (Aarhus Convention), the Convention on Transboundary Environmental Impact Assessment (Espoo Convention), the Convention on the Transboundary Effects of Industrial Accidents, as well as their protocols and non-binding instruments. This research demonstrates how these instruments and their institutions can be interpreted and understood to form a common framework of rules, principles and approaches which fills critical gaps in basin treaties, and collectively contributes to the clarification and development of international law on transboundary watercourses and freshwater ecosystems. This analysis also explores institutional interaction and coordination between and beyond the UNECE pan-regional agreements, as well as the role of soft law or non-binding instruments, and state and non-state actors in the regime. This thesis seeks to contribute to a more coherent understanding of the relationship between the UNECE water regime, international water law, international environmental law and general international law. The UNECE water regime has contributed to clarifying many of the cornerstone rules and principles of international water law and it is argued that the UNECE water regime is lex specialis, which can and mostly does go beyond the UN Watercourses Convention. The UNECE water regime has also arguably spearheaded a paradigm shift in international water law, which sees it moving beyond its historically predominant focus on issues of transboundary impact and utilisation towards a stronger ecosystem orientated approach to environmental protection and equitable use of transboundary river basins. This research identifies key elements of an ecosystem approach, drawing from international environmental and international water law and demonstrates how the ecosystem approach, including ecosystem services, as supported by the UNECE water regime, affects interpretation of international water law towards enhancing ecosystem protection and intra-state equity. This research also explores how the UNECE regime goes beyond what exists elsewhere in international law and international water law on public participation and access to justice. Finally, this research examines the contribution of the UNECE regime vis-à-vis international and European Union water law, across the spectrum of pan-European river basins, especially focusing on the Danube, Sava and Western Bug basins. The UNECE water regime is the most evolved pan-regional regime of its kind, providing ambitious detailed standards and clarification of rules and principles relevant to transboundary watercourses and freshwater ecosystems. It also provides a valuable model of institutional cooperation, progressively engaging state and non-state actors. As this regime takes steps towards realising its global ambition, with almost all instruments now open to all UN member states, and the recent accession by Chad to the Water Convention, this analysis demonstrates why this is predominantly a positive endeavour but also highlights potential challenges and hurdles. This research thus explores the implications and benefits of the UNECE’s rising role in strengthening the international legal architecture to protect the world’s fragile transboundary watercourses and freshwater ecosystems.

Demand for use of natural resources is becoming more intense to meet the basic and vital needs of mankind as well as for its economic exploitation. Aimed at regulating the exploitation of water resources some countries have established standards and environmental protection laws. In situations where natural resources are in the border regions of two or more countries, or in the case of transboundary rivers, the Laws and agreements are essential for the shared management to succeed. Taking as a reference point the river, the existence of Permanent Preservation Areas / ribereños hills (APP's) is essential for the preservation of its banks and consequently the very water resources. The expansion of urban and / or agricultural land space implies the elimination of APP's causing environmental damage. Therefore, this study aimed to analyze the conditions of the Permanent Preservation Areas (PPAs) and ribereños mountains, as are called the APP's Uruguay, on the banks of a segment of the border Rio Quaraí / Cuareim, located on the border between Brazil Uruguay. The qualitative methodology initially a literature review, performed a comparison between forest legislation and Brazilian water resources and environmental laws Uruguayan. Satellite images were used for location and analysis of the studied in Basin Quaraí / Cuareim River, located between the affluent Arroyo Pintado Grande in the east, and the Arroyo Tamandu the West. As a result it was found that there's APP / preserved ribereños hills. Among the irregular use of Permanent Preservation Areas can highlight the extraction of sand from the river banks and the advance of the agricultural frontier, leading the urgent need to mitigate the mentioned environmental problems. Urban sprawl was also a problem in the region. There is the need for greater monitoring and effective enforcement of Uruguayan and Brazilian legislation, as well, there will decrease the degradation of the banks of the Rio Quaraí / Cuareim and the necessary recovery of degraded areas today. Existing Development Joint Committees should seek increasingly shared management in the region as well as to guide the regulation of the aforementioned areas. On the issue of comparison of Brazilian and Uruguayan legislation it revealed that there would be a need to standardize the width of the APP / ribereños hills in Rio segment Quaraí / Cuareim analyzed. If there is an increase in this area, mainly in the Uruguayan margin, preservation will be more effective and environmental quality of the border region will be improved. / A demanda pela utilização de recursos naturais é cada vez mais intensa para atender as necessidades básicas e vitais da humanidade, bem como para a sua exploração econômica. Visando regular a exploração dos recursos hídricos alguns países já estabeleceram normas e leis de proteção ambiental. Em situações onde os recursos naturais encontram-se em regiões de fronteira de dois ou mais países, ou seja, no caso dos rios transfronteiriços, as Leis e os Acordos são imprescindíveis para a gestão compartilhada tenha sucesso. Tendo como ponto de referência o rio, a existência das Áreas de Preservação Permanente/montes ribereños (APP s) é fundamental para a preservação das suas margens e, consequentemente, do próprio recurso hídrico. A expansão do espaço urbano e/ou espaço agrícola acarreta a supressão das APP s provocando dano ambiental. Nesse sentido, este trabalho teve como objetivo analisar as condições das Áreas de Preservação Permanentes (APP s) e dos montes ribereños, como se denominam as APP s no Uruguai, nas margens de um segmento do Rio transfronteiriço Quaraí/Cuareím, localizado na fronteira do Brasil com o Uruguai. A metodologia qualitativa, inicialmente, de revisão bibliográfica, realizou um comparativo entre a legislação florestal e de recursos hídricos brasileira e a legislação ambiental uruguaia. Foram utilizadas imagens de satélite para localização e análise do trecho estudado na bacia hidrográfica do Rio Quaraí/Cuareím, situado entre os afluentes Arroio Pintado Grande, a Leste, e o Arroio Tamandu a Oeste. Como resultado se verificou que existem APP s/montes ribereños preservados. Entre os usos irregulares das Áreas de Preservação Permanente podem se destacar a extração de areia das margens do rio e o avanço das fronteiras agrícolas, acarretando a necessidade urgente de amenizar os problemas ambientais mencionados. A expansão urbana também se mostrou um problema na região. Há a necessidade de um maior monitoramento e efetiva fiscalização do cumprimento das legislações uruguaia e brasileira, assim, ocorrerá diminuição na degradação das margens do Rio Quaraí/Cuareím e a necessária recuperação das áreas hoje degradadas. As Comissões Mistas de Desenvolvimento existentes devem buscar cada vez mais a gestão compartilhada na região, bem como na orientação da regulamentação das áreas citadas. Na questão do comparativo das legislações brasileira e uruguaia, foi constatado que haveria a necessidade de homogeneizar a largura das APP/montes ribereños no segmento do Rio Quaraí/Cuareím analisado. Se houver um aumento dessa área, principalmente, na margem uruguaia, a preservação será mais eficaz e a qualidade ambiental da região fronteiriça será melhorada.

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This research was aimed to evaluate the possibility of using satellite precipitation products (SPPs) and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) of precipitation for better hydrologic simulations and flood forecasting in the trans-boundary Chenab River Basin (CRB) in Pakistan. This research was divided into three parts. In the first part, two renowned SPPs, i.e., global precipitation mission (GPM) IMERG-F v6 and tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) 3B42 v7, were incorporated in a semidistributed hydrological model, i.e., the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), to assess the daily and monthly runoff pattern in Chenab River at the Marala Barrage gauging site in Pakistan. The results exhibit higher correlation between observed and simulated discharges at monthly timescale simulations rather than daily timescale simulations. Moreover, results show that IMERG-F is superior to 3B42 by indicating higher R2, higher Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and lower percent bias (PBIAS) at both monthly and daily timescale. In the second part, three latest half-hourly (HH) and daily (D) SPPs, i.e., 'IMERG-E', 'IMERGL', and 'IMERG-F', were evaluated for daily and monthly flow simulations in the SWAT model. The study revealed that monthly flow simulation performance is better than daily flow simulation in all sub-daily and daily SPPs-based models. Results depict that IMERGHHF and IMERG-DF yield the best performance among the other latency levels of SPPs. However, the IMERG-HHF based model has a reasonably higher daily correlation coefficient (R) and lower daily root mean square error (RMSE) than IMERG-DF. IMERG-HHF displays the lowest PBIAS for daily and monthly flow validations and it also represents relatively higher values of R2 and NSE than any other model for daily and monthly model validation. Moreover, the sub-daily IMERG based model outperformed the daily IMERG based model for all calibration and validation scenarios. IMERG-DL based model demonstrates poor performance among all of the SPPs, in daily and monthly flow validation, with low R2, low NSE, and high PBIAS. Additionally, the IMERG-HHE model outperformed IMERG-HHL. In the third and last part of this research, coupled hydro-meteorological precipitation information was used to forecast the 2016 flood event in the Chenab River Basin. The gaugecalibrated SPP, i.e., Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP_Gauge), was selected to calibrate the Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) model for the 2016 flood event. Precipitation from the Global Forecast System (GFS) NWP, with nine different lead times up to 4 days, was used in the calibrated IFAS model. This study revealed that the hydrologic simulations in IFAS, with global GFS forecasts, were unable to predict the flood peak for all lead times. Later, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to downscale the precipitation forecasts with one-way and two-way nesting approaches. It was found in this study that the simulated hydrographs in the IFAS model, at different lead times, from the precipitation of two-way WRF nesting exhibited superior performance with the highest R2, NSE and the lowest PBIAS compared with one-way nesting. Moreover, it was concluded that the combination of GFS forecast and two-way WRF nesting can provide high-quality precipitation prediction to simulate flood hydrographs with a remarkable lead time of 96 h when applying coupled hydrometeorological flow simulation.