<p>The secessionist conflict in Transdniestrian region of the Republic of Moldova have led to more than a decade of political dialogueon finding a peaceful solution to conflict resolution, proving that the current format of negotiations is inefficient. The increased interest of the EU in the resolution of this conflict is caused by prospective inclusion of Romania in the EU, placing the Transdniestrian conflict at EU periphery, where confrontation is contrary to the all-European orientation at stability and integration. Presumably the involvement of the EU could lead to finding a political solution to the Transdniestrian conflict. Thus, the purpose of this research is to explore how EU involvement in the Transdniestrian conflict could lead to its prospective resolution. The results of this research, in form of conclusions and recommendations, depict that a more active involvement of the EU in Transdniestrian conflict resolution, as consulter and mediator, make it feasible to find a solution to the long-lasting disputes in the Republic of Moldova.</p>

The secessionist conflict in Transdniestrian region of the Republic of Moldova have led to more than a decade of political dialogueon finding a peaceful solution to conflict resolution, proving that the current format of negotiations is inefficient. The increased interest of the EU in the resolution of this conflict is caused by prospective inclusion of Romania in the EU, placing the Transdniestrian conflict at EU periphery, where confrontation is contrary to the all-European orientation at stability and integration. Presumably the involvement of the EU could lead to finding a political solution to the Transdniestrian conflict. Thus, the purpose of this research is to explore how EU involvement in the Transdniestrian conflict could lead to its prospective resolution. The results of this research, in form of conclusions and recommendations, depict that a more active involvement of the EU in Transdniestrian conflict resolution, as consulter and mediator, make it feasible to find a solution to the long-lasting disputes in the Republic of Moldova.

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / Today, political scientists working with international organizations seek to resolve internal conflicts in Bosnia- Herzegovina, Cyprus, and Kashmir. To solve such crises, political scientists have mostly tried to apply domestic comparative politics approaches. These techniques emphasize agreements among internal actors and have not been successful in most cases. In the case of the Transdniestrian conflict in the Republic of Moldova, mediators have found it difficult to achieve internal agreement because external factors also have played a significant role during the conflict. Therefore, even if an internal agreement is achieved, it will remain fragile due to the vulnerable geographic location of the Republic of Moldova and to the limited state capacity to counter influential external actors. For the purpose of solving the Transdniestrian conflict in the long run, this thesis analyzes the possibilities of creating regional complex interdependence around the Republic of Moldova, which would strengthen an internal agreement to resolve the conflict. Regional complex interdependence inter-connects the countries interested in the region around the Republic of Moldova: Romania, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine. This solution presumes external and internal interconnections based on the complex interdependence theory of neo-liberalism. The main potential drawback is that any asymmetrical dependencies in the initial stage of cooperation will imbalance the proposed complex interdependence causing unilateral dependence (most likely on Russia) leading other actors to take countermeasures. In fact, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe as a neutral party has been being a legal umbrella for mediation since all parties consider it an appropriate organization for the negotiations. Nevertheless, creating such an arrangement requires an initial role of the United States of America and the European Union to balance Russian influence until the region becomes interdependent. At that moment, the continuation of the Transdniestrian conflict will become irrelevant because the pre-conditions for conflict will be eliminated. / Major, Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Moldova

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited / This thesis analyses the causes and evolution of the conflict in the Republic of Moldova and capabilities of three conflict-regulating mechanisms to facilitate the final political solution of this conflict. The leading cause of the conflict is the competition among post-Soviet politicians, fighting over the division of the Soviet state and redistribution of politico-economic benefits. In their fight for power, the elites mobilized instrumental and primordial grievances of the population, thus giving an ethnic aspect to the confrontation. As an important intervening variable for the conflict escalation into a military confrontation is Russian interest in maintaining politico-economic and military domination over the region. Over time, all ethnic causes had been eliminated, thus creating the necessary conditions for the final political settlement of the conflict. However, the status quo, created around this conflict, suits the politico-economic interests of the Transdniestrian elites, and reinforced by the Russian interest in keeping the region under its influence, is encouraging them to promote a radical position toward the process of negotiations and to demand anything but independence, a fact that cannot be accepted by the legal Moldovan Government. In such circumstances, the final solution depends on the attitudes of the external players. However, the international players are dispersed over the methods of resolving this conflict, thus reinforcing the deadlock situation in the process of negotiation. This thesis argues that under the current circumstances, none of the conflict regulating mechanism, partition, confederation and federation will solve that particular conflict. However, the federalism has the most potential to serve as a tool for unification and conflict-resolution, but only if the international community and internal players will promote democratic values, rule of law and free marked orientation in the region, will reduce the benefits of the status quo situation and, finally, will offer substantial politico-economic and cultural autonomy combined with fair representation at the central level to the Transdniestrian region. / Lieutenant Colonel, Armed Forces of the Republic of Moldova

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