published_or_final_version / abstract / toc / Transport Policy and Planning / Master / Master of Arts in Transport Policy and Planning

Bibliography: leaves 469-480 / xviii, 480 leaves : ill ; 30 cm. / Title page, contents and abstract only. The complete thesis in print form is available from the University Library. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--Dept. of Economics, University of Adelaide, 1984

This thesis contributes to the literature on the choice of transport mode for commuting trips, with special focus on the difference between urban and rural commuting in Scotland. The thesis begins by giving an overview of discrete choice theory and some empirical models consistent with this theory, before reviewing the literature on empirical applications of mode choice models for commuting trips. In the following, multinomial, nested and mixed logit models using data from a survey of commuters in the University of St Andrews are developed. The models are used to estimate aggregate mode-choice elasticities that can assist the development of efficient car reduction policies in St Andrews and other small towns in rural areas. The direct elasticities of the car mode are found to be comparable to estimates reported in studies of urban commuting, while the demand for public transport is found to be considerably more elastic. The value of in-vehicle travel time is found to be lower than in most studies of urban commuting, reflecting that the roads in the St Andrews area are relatively uncongested. Subsequently, current car drivers' willingness to use a Park and Ride service prior to the implementation of such a service are examined. The results show that the modal shift away from parking on-site will be small unless the new service is accompanied by measures aimed at making parking on-site less attractive such as introducing parking charges. Finally, the effect of the 'compact city' on modal split and congestion are examined. As well as making urban transport more sustainable as a result of an increase in the use of public transport, making cities more compact is found to contribute to lower levels of congestion in urban areas through a reduction in complex trip chains.

Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil Engineering, 1980. / MICROFICHE COPY AVAILABLE IN ARCHIVES AND ENGINEERING. / Bibliography: leaves 100-102. / by Steven B. Pitschke. / M.S.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil Engineering, 1982. / MICROFICHE COPY AVAILABLE IN ARCHIVES AND ENGINEERING. / Bibliography: leaves 202-205. / by Kamal Nabil Ali Safwat. / Ph.D.

For a long time mathematicians have been developing a number of theorems that seek to establish general structural and behavioral characteristics of dynamic systems. Most of these techniques based on calculus have been designed for the study of continuous phenomena. Hence they are ineffective to deals with discontinuous or divergent behaviors. Catastrophe theory, when applied to scientific problems, deal with the properties of discontinuities directly without reference to any specific underlying mechanism. It is especially suited to the study of systems in which the only reliable observations are of the discontinuities. System dynamics, introduced by professor Jay W. Forrester in the early 1960's, is used to represent general, complex dynamic systems. It focuses on the structure and behavior of systems composed of interacting feedback loops. The nature of its approach to modeling shares many common points with catastrophe theory. Particularly, both are used to seek to develop fruitful simplifications of a complex reality. The purposes of this thesis, therefore, are: first, to offer a qualitative as well as a quantitative description of catastrophe theory, as this theory is not very familiar to many people; secondly, to present the relationship between catastrophe theory and system dynamics; and thirdly, to apply these theorem to urban transportation planning. / Master of Science

The goal of this research is to develop a mathematical model for determining a route that attempts to reduce the risk of low probability, high consequence accidents by trying to minimize the conditional expected risk given that an accident has occurred. However, if this were the only objective of the model, then poor decisions could result. Therefore, the model formulated is a bicriterion network optimization model that considers trade-offs between the conditional expectation of a catastrophic outcome and more traditional measure of risk dealing with the expected value of the consequence. More specifically, the problem we wish to address involves finding a path that minimizes the conditional expectation of a catastrophic outcome such that the expected risk is lesser than or equal to a pre-determined value, v. The value v, is user-prescribed and is prompted by the solution to the shortest path problem which minimizes the expected risk. Two approaches are investigated. First, we apply a suitable k-shortest path algorithm to rank the extreme points for which the objective function value remains lesser than or equal to v. This enables the selection of a best path with respect to the conditional expectation objective function Second, we develop a fractional programming branch-and-bound approach that IS more robust with respect to the selected value of v. A simple numerical example is provided for the sake of illustration, and the model is also tested using real data Both data acquisition issues as well as algorithmic computational Issues are discussed. / Master of Science

The use of MEPLAN by the Metropolitan Transport Planning Branch of the Cape Town City Council since 1984 was not successful due to apartheid anomalies. EMME/2 was then introduced in 1991 in replacement of MEPLAN. The strengths and weaknesses of both MEPLAN and EMME/2 are recorded in this study.

For a number of reasons--congestion, public health, greenhouse gas emissions, energy use, demographic shifts, and community livability to name a few--the importance of walking and bicycling as transportation options will only continue to increase. Currently, policy interest and infrastructure funding for nonmotorized modes far outstrip our ability to model bike and walk travel. To ensure scarce resources are used most effectively, accurate models sensitive to key policy variables are needed to support long-range planning and project evaluation, and to continue adding to our growing understanding of key factors driving walk and bike behavior. This research attempts to synthesize and advance the state of the art in trip-based, nonmotorized mode choice modeling. Over the past fifteen years, efforts to model the decision to walk or bike on a given trip have been hampered by the lack of a comprehensive behavioral framework and inconsistency in measurement scales and model specification. This project develops a mode choice behavioral framework that acknowledges the importance of attributes along the specific walk and bike routes that travelers are likely to consider, in addition to more traditional area-based measures of travel environments. The proposed framework is applied to a revealed preference, GPS-based travel dataset collected from 2010-2013 in Portland, Oregon. Measurement of nonmotorized trip distance, built environment, tour-level variables, and attitudinal attributes as well as mode availability are explicitly addressed. Route and mode choice models are specified using discrete choice techniques, and predicted walking and bicycling routes are tested as inputs to various mode choice models. Results suggest strong potential for predicted route measures to enhance walk and bicycle mode choice modeling. Findings also support the specific notion that bicycle and pedestrian infrastructure contribute not only to route choice but also to the choice of whether to bike or walk. For decisions to bicycle, availability of low-traffic routes may be particularly important to women. Model results further indicate that land use and built environments around trip ends and a person’s home still have important effects on nonmotorized travel when controlling for route quality. Both route and area travel environment impacts are mostly robust to the inclusion of residential self-selection variables, consistent with the idea that built environment differences matter even for households that choose to live in a walkable or bikeable neighborhood. The combination of area and route-based built environment measures alongside trip context, sociodemographic, and attitudinal attributes provides a new perspective on nonmotorized travel behavior relevant to both policy and practice.

The use of MEPLAN by the Metropolitan Transport Planning Branch of the Cape Town City Council since 1984 was not successful due to apartheid anomalies. EMME/2 was then introduced in 1991 in replacement of MEPLAN. The strengths and weaknesses of both MEPLAN and EMME/2 are recorded in this study.