A method of reducing congestion is to reduce the demand by providing the road network users with accurate and reliable travel time information for their pretrip planning and enroute guidance, and/or attracting more people to the public transit. For this purpose, this research concenturates on using Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) system equipped bus as a probe vehicle for estimating bus arrival times and auto travel times. Since many transit organizations throughout the North America are currently operating these AVL buses on their bus routes, in a sense, existing AVL bus would be the most cost-effective traffic probe which can be utilized for data collection in the proactive mode. Therefore, the goals of this research are to enhance the current use of AVL systems by introducing a new module to estimate bus arrival time information for transit travelers, and use AVL systems-equipped bus as a probe vehicle to estimate the nontransit travel time for auto travelers. / Ph. D.

Travel time information is important for Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) applications. People traveling on urban freeways are interested in knowing how long it will take them to reach their destinations, particularly under congested conditions. Though many advances have been made in the field of traffic engineering and ITS applications, there is a lack of practical travel time estimation procedures for ATIS applications. Automatic Vehicle Identification (AVI) and Geographic Information System (GPS) technologies can be used to directly estimate travel times, but they are not yet economically viable and not widely deployed in urban areas. Hence, data from loop detectors or other point estimators of traffic flow variables are predominantly used for travel time estimation. Most point detectors can provide this data efficiently. Some attempts have been made in the past to estimate travel times from point estimates of traffic variables, but they are not comprehensive and are valid for only particular cases of freeway conditions. Moreover, most of these methods are statistical and thus limited to the type of situations for which they were developed and are not of much general use. The purpose of current research is to develop a comprehensive system for travel time estimation on urban freeways for ATIS applications. The system is based on point estimates of traffic variables obtained from detectors. The output required from the detectors is flow and occupancy aggregated for a short time interval of 5 minutes. The system for travel time estimation is based on the traffic flow theory rather than statistical methods. The travel times calculated using this system are compared with the results of FHWA simulation package TSIS 5.0 and the estimation system is found to give reasonable and comparable results when compared with TSIS results. / Master of Science

The National Science Foundation has announced a plan to establish a Deep Underground Science and Engineering Laboratory (DUSEL) for interdisciplinary research in physics, geosciences, biosciences and engineering. The proposed laboratory will extend to a depth of about 2200 meters and will consist of research facilities for long term study. To date, eight sites in North America have been proposed to host DUSEL. One of these sites, known as Kimballton, is located near Butt Mountain in Giles County in southwestern Virginia. Two seismic lines were acquired along the top of Butt Mountain in June of 2004 to support the ongoing integrated site characterization effort by the Kimballton Science Team. Both lines, approximately 3 km in length, are standard multifold seismic reflection data aimed at imaging faults, thrust sheets, and repeated sections of Paleozoic rocks in the vicinity of the proposed Kimballton site. Crooked line geometry, irregular geophone spacing, ground roll, and poor impedance contrasts between juxtapositioned rock units were challenges in processing the data. Non-standard processing techniques included the use of travel time tomography to accurately constrain near surface velocities, the use of 2D median filters to remove ground roll, and stacking only offsets exceeding 500 m. Interpretation of seismic data supports a triplicated stratigraphic section caused by the stacking of the the St. Clair and Narrows thrust sheets. The St. Clair and Narrows faults are interpreted as shear zones within ductile units of the Martinsburg Formation. 3D travel time tomography was used to build a near surface velocity model of Lines 1 and 2 for the purposes of imaging near surface structure and constraining the extent of topographic lineaments, which are interpreted as bedrock joint systems. Interpretation of the velocity models suggests that the broadly folded strata of the Butt Mountain synclinorium dip gently to the east along the hinge surface. The surface extrapolation of the Lookout Rock fault and the intersection of topographic lineaments with the seismic lines are expressed as low velocity zones that extend to depths of 150 m. This may be related to accelerated weathering along jointed rock surfaces. Results of this study have already been incorporated into the NSF proposal submitted by the Kimballton Science Team (http://www.phys.vt.edu/~kimballton/s2p/b2.pdf). / Master of Science

This research examined if travelers are paying for travel on managed lanes (MLs) as they indicated that they would in a 2008 survey. The other objectives of this research included estimating travelers’ value of travel time savings (VTTS) and their value of travel time reliability (VOR), and examining the multiple survey designs used in a 2008 survey to identify which survey design better predicted ML traveler behavior. To achieve the objectives, an Internet-based follow-up stated preference (SP) survey of Houston’s Katy Freeway travelers was conducted in 2010. Three survey design methodologies—Db-efficient, random level generation, and adaptive random—were tested in this survey. A total of 3,325 responses were gathered from the survey, and of those, 869 responses were from those who likely also responded to the previous 2008 survey. Mixed logit models were developed for those 869 previous survey respondents to estimate and compare the VTTS to the 2008 survey estimates. It was found that the 2008 survey estimates of the VTTS were very close to the 2010 survey estimates. In addition, separate mixed logit models were developed from the responses obtained from the three different design strategies in the 2010 survey. The implied mean VTTS varied across the design-specific models. Only the Db-efficient design was able to estimate a VOR. Based on this and several other metrics, the Db-efficient design outperformed the other designs. A mixed logit model including all the responses from all three designs was also developed; the implied mean VTTS was estimated as 65 percent ($22/hr) of the mean hourly wage rate, and the implied mean VOR was estimated as 108 percent ($37/hr) of the mean hourly wage rate. Data on actual usage of the MLs were also collected. Based on actual usage, the average VTTS was calculated as $51/hr. However, the $51/hr travelers are paying likely also includes the value travelers place on travel time reliability of the MLs. The total (VTTS+VOR) amount estimated from the all-inclusive model from the survey was $59/hr, which is close to the value estimated from the actual usage. The Db-efficient design estimated this total as $50/hr. This research also shows that travelers have a difficulty in estimating the time they save while using a ML. They greatly overestimate the amount of time saved. It may well be that even though travelers are saving a small amount of time they value that time savings (and avoiding congestion) much higher – possibly similar to their amount of perceived travel time savings. The initial findings from this study, reported here, are consistent with the hypothesis that travelers are paying for their travel on MLs, much as they said that they would in our previous survey. This supports the use of data on intended behavior in policy analysis.

With the advent of Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIS), short-term travel time prediction is becoming increasingly important. Travel time can be obtained directly from instrumented test vehicles, license plate matching, probe vehicles etc., or from indirect methods such as loop detectors. Because of their wide spread deployment, travel time estimation from loop detector data is one of the most widely used methods. However, the major criticism about loop detector data is the high probability of error due to the prevalence of equipment malfunctions. This dissertation presents methodologies for estimating and predicting travel time from the loop detector data after correcting for errors. The methodology is a multi-stage process, and includes the correction of data, estimation of travel time and prediction of travel time, and each stage involves the judicious use of suitable techniques. The various techniques selected for each of these stages are detailed below. The test sites are from the freeways in San Antonio, Texas, which are equipped with dual inductance loop detectors and AVI. ?? Constrained non-linear optimization approach by Generalized Reduced Gradient (GRG) method for data reduction and quality control, which included a check for the accuracy of data from a series of detectors for conservation of vehicles, in addition to the commonly adopted checks. ?? A theoretical model based on traffic flow theory for travel time estimation for both off-peak and peak traffic conditions using flow, occupancy and speed values obtained from detectors. ?? Application of a recently developed technique called Support Vector Machines (SVM) for travel time prediction. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method is also developed for comparison. Thus, a complete system for the estimation and prediction of travel time from loop detector data is detailed in this dissertation. Simulated data from CORSIM simulation software is used for the validation of the results.

This thesis evaluates the performance of a vehicle detection technology, Automated License Plate Recognition (ALPR) camera systems, with regards to its ability to produce real-time travel time information in active work zones. A literature review was conducted to investigate the ALPR technology as well as to identify other research that has been conducted using ALPR systems to collect travel time information. Next, the ALPR technology was tested in a series of field deployments in both an arterial and a freeway environment. The goal of the arterial field deployment was to evaluate the optimal ALPR camera angles that produce the highest license plate detection rates and accuracy percentages. Next, a series of freeway deployments were conducted on corridors of I-285 in Atlanta, Georgia in order to evaluate the ALPR system in active work zone environments. During the series of I-285 freeway deployments, ALPR data was collected in conjunction with data from Bluetooth and radar technologies, as well as from high definition video cameras. The data collected during the I-285 deployments was analyzed to determine the ALPR vehicle detection rates. Additionally, a script was written to match the ALPR reads across two data collection stations to determine the ALPR travel times through the corridors. The ALPR travel time data was compared with the travel time data produced by the Bluetooth and video cameras with a particular focus on identifying travel time biases associated with each given technology. Finally, based on the knowledge gained, recommendations for larger-scale ALPR work zone deployments as well as suggestions for future research are provided.

Recent developments in mobile information and communication technologies (ICT), vehicle automation, and the associated debates on the implications for the operation of transport systems and for the appraisal of investment has heightened the importance of understanding how people spend travel time and how productive they are while travelling. To date, however, no approach has been proposed that incorporates the joint modelling of in-travel activity type, activity duration and productivity behaviour. To address this critical gap, we draw on a recently developed PPS framework (Pawlak et al., 2015) to develop a new joint model of activity type choice, duration and productivity. In our framework, we use copulas to provide a flexible link between a discrete choice model of activity type choice, a hazard-based model for activity duration, and a log-linear model of productivity. Our model is readily amenable to estimation, which we demonstrate using data from the 2008 UK Study of Productive Use of Rail Travel-time. We hence show how journey-, respondent-, attitude-, and ICT-related factors are related to expected in-travel time allocation to work and non-work activities, and the associated productivity. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first framework that both captures the effects of different factors on activity choice, duration and productivity, and models links between these aspects of behaviour. Furthermore, the convenient interpretation of the parameters in the form of semi-elasticities enables the comparison of effects associated with the presence of on-board facilities (e.g., workspace, connectivity) or equipment use, facilitating use of the model outputs in applied contexts.

published_or_final_version / Economics and Finance / Master / Master of Philosophy

With the remarkable increase in the population and number of vehicles, traffic has become a severe problem in most metropolitan areas. Traffic congestion has imposed tight constraints on economic growth, national security, and mobility of riders and goods. The open-mode integrated transportation system (OMITS) has been designed to improve the traffic condition of roadways by increasing the ridership of vehicles and optimizing transportation modes through smart services integrating emerging information communication technologies, big data management, social networking, and transportation management. Even a modest reduction in the number of vehicles on roadways will lead to a considerable cost savings in terms of time and money. Additionally the reduction in traffic jams will lead to a significant decrease in both gasoline consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. As a result, novel transportation management is critical to reduce vehicle mileage in the peak time of the road network. The OMITS was proposed to enhance transportation services in respect to the following three aspects: optimization of the transportation modes by multimodal traveling assignment, dynamic routing and ridesharing service with advanced traveler information systems, and interactive user interface for social networking and traveling information. Therefore, the OMITS encompasses a broad range of advanced transportation research topics, say dynamic trip- match, transportation-mode optimization, traffic prediction, dynamic routing, and social network- based carpooling. This dissertation will focus on a kernel part of the OMITS, namely traffic simulation and prediction based on data containing the distribution of vehicles and the road network configuration. A microscopic traffic simulation framework has been developed to take into account various traffic phenomena, such as traffic jams resulting from bottlenecking, incidents, and traffic flow shock waves. Four fundamental contributions of the present study are summarized as follows: Firstly, an accurate and robust vehicle trajectory data collection method based on image data of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) has been presented, which can be used to rapidly and accurately acquire the real-time traffic conditions of the region of interest. Historically, a lack in the availability of trajectory data has posed a significant obstacle to the enhancement of microscopic simulation models. To overcome this obstacle, a UAV based vehicle trajectory data collection algorithm has been developed. This method extracts vehicle trajectory data from the UAV’s video at different altitudes with different view scopes. Compared with traditional methods, the present data collection algorithm incorporates many unique features to customize the vehicle and traffic flow, through which vehicle detection and tracking system accuracy can be considerably increased. Secondly, an open mechanics-based acceleration model has been presented to simulate the longitudinal motion of vehicles, in which five general factors—namely the subject vehicle’s speed and acceleration sensitivity, safety consideration, relative speed sensitivity and gap reducing desire—have been identified to describe drivers’ preferences and the interactions between vehicles. Inspired by the similarity between vehicle interactions and particle interactions, a mechanical system with force elements has been introduced to quantify the vehicle’s acceleration. Accordingly, each of the aforementioned five factors are assumed to function as an individual trigger to alter each vehicle’s speed. Based on Newton’s second law of motion, the subject vehicle’s longitudinal behavior can be simulated by the present open mechanics-based acceleration model. By introducing feeling gap, multilane acceleration behavior is included in the presented model. The simulation results fit realistic conditions for the traffic flow and the road capacity very well, where traffic shockwaves can be observed for a certain range of the traffic density. This model can be extended to more general scenarios if other factors can be recognized and introduced into the modeling framework. Thirdly, a driver decision-based lane change execution model has been developed to describe a vehicle’s lane change execution process, which includes two steps, i.e. driver’s lane selection and lane change execution. Currently, most lane change models focus on the driver’s lane selection, and overlook the driver’s behavior during a process of lane change execution which plays a significant role in the simulation of traffic flow characteristics. In this model, a lane change execution is analyzed as a driver’s decision-making process, which consists of desire point setting, priority decision-making, corresponding actions and achievement of consensus analysis. Compared with the traditional lane change execution models, the present model describes a realistic lane change process, and it provides more accurate and detailed simulation results in the microscopic traffic simulation. Based on the presented open mechanics-based acceleration model and the driver decision- based lane change execution model, a reverse lane change model has further been developed to simulate some complex traffic situations such as reverse lane change process at a two-way-two- lane road section where one lane is blocked by a traffic incident. Based on this reverse lane change model, information on the average waiting time and road capability can be obtained. The simulation results show that the present model is able to reflect real driver behavior and the corresponding traffic phenomenon during a reverse lane change process Through a homogenization process of the microscopic vehicle motion, we can obtain the macroscopic traffic flow of the roadway network within certain time and spatial ranges, which will be integrated into the OMITS system for traffic prediction. The validation of the models through future OMITS operations will also enable them to be high fidelity models in future driverless technologies and autonomous vehicles.

This thesis focuses on two important problems related to DDDAS: interest management (data distribution) and prediction models. In order to reduce communication overhead, we propose a new interest management mechanism for mobile peer-to-peer systems. This approach involves dividing the entire space into cells and using an efficient sorting algorithm to sort the regions in each cell. A mobile landmarking scheme is introduced to implement this sort-based scheme in mobile peer-to-peer systems. The design does not require a centralized server, but rather, every peer can become a mobile landmark node to take a server-like role to sort and match the regions. Experimental results show that the scheme has better computational efficiency for both static and dynamic matching. In order to improve communication efficiency, we present a travel time prediction model based on boosting, an important machine learning technique, and combine boosting and neural network models to increase prediction accuracy. We also explore the relationship between the accuracy of travel time prediction and the frequency of traffic data collection with the long term goal of minimizing bandwidth consumption. Several different sets of experiments are used to evaluate the effectiveness of this model. The results show that the boosting neural network model outperforms other predictors.