Changes in large-scale vegetation structure triggered by processes such as deforestation, wildfires, and tree die-off alter surface structure, energy balance, and associated albedo-all critical for land surface models. Characterizing these properties usually requires long-term data, precluding characterization of rapid vegetation changes such as those increasingly occurring in the Anthropocene. Consequently, the characterization of rapid events is limited and only possible in a few specific areas. We use a campaign approach to characterize surface properties associated with vegetation structure. In our approach, a profiling LiDAR and hemispherical image analyses quantify vegetation structure and a portable mast instrumented with a net radiometer, wind-humidity-temperature stations in a vertical profile, and soil temperature-heat flux characterize surface properties. We illustrate the application of our approach in two forest types (boreal and semiarid) with disturbance-induced tree loss. Our prototype characterizes major structural changes associated with tree loss, changes in vertical wind profiles, surface roughness energy balance partitioning, a proxy for NDVI (Normalized Differential Vegetation Index), and albedo. Multi-day albedo estimates, which differed between control and disturbed areas, were similar to tower-based multiyear characterizations, highlighting the utility and potential of the campaign approach. Our prototype provides general characterization of surface and boundary-layer properties relevant for land surface models, strategically enabling preliminary characterization of rapid vegetation disturbance events.

Broad-scale forest die-off associated with drought and heat has now been reported from every forested continent, posing a global-scale challenge to forest management. Climate-driven die-off is frequently compounded with other drivers of tree mortality, such as altered land use, wildfire, and invasive species, making forest management increasingly complex. Facing similar challenges, rangeland managers have widely adopted the approach of developing conceptual models that identify key ecosystem states and major types of transitions between those states, known as "state-and-transition models" (S&T models). Using expert opinion and available research, the development of such conceptual S&T models has proven useful in anticipating ecosystem changes and identifying management actions to undertake or to avoid. In cases where detailed data are available, S&T models can be developed into probabilistic predictions, but even where data are insufficient to predict transition probabilities, conceptual S&T models can provide valuable insights for managing a given ecosystem and for comparing and contrasting different ecosystem dynamics. We assembled a synthesis of 14 forest die-off case studies from around the globe, each with sufficient information to infer impacts on forest dynamics and to inform management options following a forest die-off event. For each, we developed a conceptual S&T model to identify alternative ecosystem states, pathways of ecosystem change, and points where management interventions have been, or may be, successful in arresting or reversing undesirable changes. We found that our diverse set of mortality case studies fit into three broad classes of ecosystem trajectories: (1) single-state transition shifts, (2) ecological cascading responses and feedbacks, and (3) complex dynamics where multiple interactions, mortality drivers, and impacts create a range of possible state transition responses. We integrate monitoring and management goals in a framework aimed to facilitate development of conceptual S&T models for other forest die-off events. Our results highlight that although forest die-off events across the globe encompass many different underlying drivers and pathways of ecosystem change, there are commonalities in opportunities for successful management intervention.

Widespread, high levels of tree mortality, termed forest die-off, associated with drought and rising temperatures, are disrupting forests worldwide. Drought will likely become more frequent with climate change, but even without more frequent drought, higher temperatures can exacerbate tree water stress. The temperature sensitivity of drought-induced mortality of tree species has been evaluated experimentally for only single-step changes in temperature (ambient compared to ambient + increase) rather than as a response surface (multiple levels of temperature increase), which constrains our ability to relate changes in the driver with the biological response. Here we show that time-to-mortality during drought for seedlings of two western United States tree species, Pinus edulis (Engelm.) and Pinus ponderosa (Douglas ex C. Lawson), declined in continuous proportion with increasing temperature spanning a 7.7 degrees C increase. Although P. edulis outlived P. ponderosa at all temperatures, both species had similar relative declines in time-to-mortality as temperature increased (5.2% per degrees C for P. edulis; 5.8% per. C for P. ponderosa). When combined with the non-linear frequency distribution of drought duration-many more short droughts than long droughts-these findings point to a progressive increase in mortality events with global change due to warming alone and independent of additional changes in future drought frequency distributions. As such, dire future forest recruitment patterns are projected assuming the calculated 7-9 seedling mortality events per species by 2100 under business-as-usual warming occur, congruent with additional vulnerability predicted for adult trees from stressors like pathogens and pests. Our progressive projection for increased mortality events was driven primarily by the non-linear shape of the drought duration frequency distribution, a common climate feature of drought-affected regions. These results illustrate profound benefits for reducing emissions of carbon to the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources and slowing warming as rapidly as possible to maximize forest persistence.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(理学) / 甲第20752号 / 理博第4328号 / 新制||理||1622(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院理学研究科生物科学専攻 / (主査)教授 石田 厚, 教授 工藤 洋, 教授 田村 実 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Science / Kyoto University / DGAM