Advances in molecular marker technologies have led to the development of high throughput genotyping techniques such as Genotyping by Sequencing (GBS), driving the application of genomics in crop research and breeding. They have also supported the use of novel mapping approaches, including Multi-parent Advanced Generation Inter-Cross (MAGIC) populations which have increased precision in identifying markers to inform plant breeding practices. In the first part of this thesis, a high density physical map derived from GBS was used to identify QTLs controlling key agronomic traits of wheat in a genome-wide association study (GWAS) and to demonstrate the practicability of genomic selection for predicting the trait values. The results from GBS were compared to a previous study conducted on the same association mapping panel using a less dense physical map derived from diversity arrays technology (DArT) markers. GBS detected more QTLs than DArT markers although some of the QTLs were detected by DArT markers alone. Prediction accuracies from the two marker platforms were mostly similar and largely dependent on trait genetic architecture. The second part of this thesis focused on MAGIC populations, which incorporate diversity and novel allelic combinations from several generations of recombination. Pedigrees representing a wild rice MAGIC population were used to model MAGIC populations by simulation to assess the level of recombination and creation of novel haplotypes. The wild rice species are an important reservoir of beneficial genes that have been variously introgressed into rice varieties using bi-parental population approaches. The level of recombination was found to be highly dependent on the number of crosses made and on the resulting population size. Creation of MAGIC populations require adequate planning in order to make sufficient number of crosses that capture optimal haplotype diversity. The third part of the thesis considers models that have been proposed for genomic prediction. The ridge regression best linear unbiased prediction (RR-BLUP) is based on the assumption that all genotyped molecular markers make equal contributions to the variations of a phenotype. Information from underlying candidate molecular markers are however of greater significance and can be used to improve the accuracy of prediction. Here, an existing Differentially Penalized Regression (DiPR) model which uses modifications to a standard RR-BLUP package and allows two or more marker sets from different platforms to be independently weighted was used. The DiPR model performed better than single or combined marker sets for predicting most of the traits both in a MAGIC population and an association mapping panel. Overall the work presented in this thesis shows that while these techniques have great promise, they should be carefully evaluated before introduction into breeding programmes.

This thesis provides insights into the creation of a model for predicting odds in the Premier League. It illustrates how the ELO system and historical odds, in combination with Monte Carlo simulations, can be implemented through logistic regression to predict odds in an unbiased way. The findings are that the model performs generally well, but significantly worse at the beginning and end of the Premier League seasons. For further improvements, it is most likely necessary to factor in variables not available in the current model. Such factors could for example be incentives, injuries, or changes in the squad, all not being accounted for by the model in this case. / Detta examensarbete ger insikter om skapandet av en modell för att förutsäga oddsen i Premier League. Den visar hur ELO-systemet och historiska odds, i kombination med Monte Carlo-simuleringar, kan implementeras genom logistisk regression för att förutsäga oddsen på ett opartiskt sätt. Resultaten visar att modellen generellt sett fungerar bra, men betydligt sämre i början och slutet av Premier League-säsongerna. För ytterligare förbättringar är det troligtvis nödvändigt att ta hänsyn till variabler som inte är tillgängliga i den nuvarande modellen. Sådana faktorer kan till exempel vara incitament, skador eller förändringar i truppen, som alla inte tas hänsyn till i modellen i detta fall.

This study delves into the application of Small Area Estimation (SAE) techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting global needs for assistive spectacles. By leveraging the power of SAE, the research undertakes a comprehensive exploration, employing arange of predictive models including Linear Regression (LR), Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (EBLUP), hglm (from R package) with Conditional Autoregressive (CAR), and Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM). At last phase,the global spectacle needs’ prediction includes various essential steps such as random effects simulation, coefficient extraction from GLMM estimates, and log-linear modeling. The investigation develops a multi-faceted approach, incorporating area-level modeling, spatial correlation analysis, and relative standard error, to assess their impact on predictive accuracy. The GLMM consistently displays the lowest Relative Standard Error (RSE) values, almost close to zero, indicating precise but potentially overfit results. Conversely, the hglm with CAR model presents a narrower RSE range, typically below 25%, reflecting greater accuracy; however, it is worth noting that it contains a higher number of outliers. LR illustrates a performance similar to EBLUP, with RSE values reaching around 50% in certain scenarios and displaying slight variations across different contexts. These findings underscore the trade-offs between precision and robustness across these models, especially for finer geographical levels and countries not included in the initial sample.

In most breeding programmes breeders use phenotypic data obtained in breeding trials to rank the performance of the parents or progeny on pre-selected performance criteria. Through this ranking the best candidates are identified and selected for breeding or production purposes. Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (BLUP), is an efficient selection method to use, combining information into a single index. Unbalanced or messy data is frequently found in tree breeding trial data. Trial individuals are related and a degree of correlation is expected between individuals over sites, which can lead to collinearity in the data which may lead to instability in certain selection models. A high degree of collinearity may cause problems and adversely affect the prediction of the breeding values in a BLUP selection index. Simulation studies have highlighted that instability is a concern and needs to be investigated in experimental data. The occurrence of instability, relating to collinearity, in BLUP of tree breeding data and possible methods to deal with it were investigated in this study. Case study data from 39 forestry breeding trials (three generations) of Eucalyptus grandis and 20 trials of Pinus patula (two generations) were used. A series of BLUP predictions (rankings) using three selection traits and 10 economic weighting sets were made. Backward and forward prediction models with three different matrix inversion techniques (singular value decomposition, Gaussian elimination - partial and full pivoting) and an adapted ridge regression technique were used in calculating BLUP indices. A Delphi and Clipper version of the same BLUP programme which run with different computational numerical precision were used and compared. Predicted breeding values (forward prediction) were determined in the F1 and F2 E. grandis trials and F1 P. patula trials and realised breeding performance (backward prediction) was determined in the F2 and F3 E. grandis trials and F2 P. patula trials. The accuracy (correlation between the predicted breeding values and realised breeding performance) was estimated in order to assess the efficiency of the predictions and evaluate the different matrix inversion methods. The magnitude of the accuracy (correlations) was found to mostly be of acceptable magnitude when compared to the heritability of the compound weighted trait in the F1F2 E. grandis scenarios. Realised genetic gains were also calculated for each method used. Instability was observed in both E. grandis and P. patula breeding data in the study, and this may cause a significant loss in realised genetic gains. Instability can be identified by examining the matrix calculated from the product of the phenotypic covariance matrix with its inverse, for deviations from the expected identity pattern. Results of this study indicate that it may not always be optimal to use a higher numerical precision programme when there is collinearity in the data and instability in the matrix calculations. In some cases, where there is a large amount of collinearity, the use of a higher precision programme for BLUP calculations can significantly increase or decrease the accuracy of the rankings. The different matrix inversion techniques particularly SVD and adapted ridge regression did not perform much better than the full pivoting technique. The study found that it is beneficial to use the full pivoting Gaussian elimination matrix inversion technique in preference to the partial pivoting Gaussian elimination matrix inversion technique for both high and lower numerical precision programmes. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2013. / gm2014 / Genetics / unrestricted