Title: Managing an emerging region – A study of how MNCs manage uncertainty in a Southern African context Authors: Markus Axelsson & Andreas Olofsson Supervisor: Cecilia Pahlberg Research question: How are Swedish business-to-business MNCs reducing perceived uncertainty when operating in the Southern African Development Community? Purpose: Provide a deeper understanding of how Swedish MNCs from diverse industrial backgrounds are managing uncertainty when operating in the Southern African Development Community (SADC). This study further aims to add to an acknowledged theoretical gap in international business research by providing a contextual contribution towards the Southern African region to the field of internationalization management. Method: A qualitative research method including semi-structured interviews was used to gain in- depth understanding of how Swedish B2B MNCs manages uncertainty within SADC markets. For the analysis, a theoretical framework based on uncertainty management, knowledge and network theory was developed into a conceptual model, carried out when gathering empirical data. Conclusions: The findings suggest that gaining experiential knowledge was vital to reduce perceived uncertainty among Swedish B2B MNCs operating in SADC markets. Experiential knowledge was obtained through operations within the markets, which over time resulted in enhanced market commitments and thereafter increased experiential knowledge. Knowledge was further exclusively shared within networks, where gaining network insidership was essential. To gain network insidership in SADC markets, findings suggest that becoming localized in the market to gain legitimacy is beneficial and achieved over a longer period of time. Finally, findings indicate that South Africa could be used as a gateway into Southern Africa, where firms’ can gain valuable experiences, relationships and an understanding of business practices, which can reduce the perceived uncertainty towards other SADC markets.

High causally uncertain (CU) individuals experience lingering doubts about their ability to determine the causes of social events (Weary & Edwards, 1994). Furthermore, these people tend to perceive their interactions and conversational partners more negatively (Boucher & Jacobson, 2009). However, the reasons for these negative reactions remain unclear. Therefore, the purpose of the current set of studies was to explore two possible explanations for these reactions. Specifically, in three studies, I examined if insufficient uncertainty reduction or negative interpersonal expectations mediate the relationship between causal uncertainty and liking for a recent acquaintance. In Study 1 (N = 114), participants engaged in a brief unstructured dyadic conversation, whereas in Study 2 (N = 176), they engaged in three conversations with different partners. Finally, in Study 3 (N = 220), I examined the effects of temporarily activating causal uncertainty beliefs during initial interactions. As predicted, causal uncertainty was negatively associated with liking and uncertainty reduction. In Studies 1 and 2, high CU participants reported more uncertainty about themselves and their partner, and less liking than did low CU participants. Although chronic levels of causal uncertainty in Study 3 were not associated with liking or uncertainty reduction, participants who reported more current feelings of uncertainty also reported more uncertainty about themselves and their partner, and less liking. More importantly, uncertainty reduction fully mediated the effect of causal uncertainty on liking in Study 1 and partially mediated the effect of current uncertainty feelings on liking in Study 3. Therefore, high CU people’s negative social perceptions appear to stem, at least in part, from an inability to reduce their social uncertainty during initial interactions. In contrast, the relationship between causal uncertainty and interpersonal expectations remains unclear. Although causal uncertainty (as well as current uncertainty feelings) in Studies 1 and 3 were not associated with negative interpersonal expectations, high CU participants in Study 2 did report more negative expectations for their first conversation relative to low CU participants. Furthermore, although causal uncertainty was positively related to rejection sensitivity, rejection sensitivity was unable to account for the causal uncertainty effects on liking. / Thesis (Ph.D, Psychology) -- Queen's University, 2009-07-24 15:13:51.847

個體為了適應及被地主社會所接納，會嘗試消除各方面的疑慮。本研究主要在探討嫁給台灣人的韓國女性如何適應台灣這個新環境，這些韓國女性又是如何在適應過程中消除疑慮。人類總是在不斷地遷徙和移動之中，兩個不同文化的成員，若有直接或間接的接觸，時常會造成其中一個或甚至兩個社會的變遷，並引起文化特質逐漸地散佈。因此，這種變遷的過程，稱為「傳播」。 對於日增多行的跨文化婚姻，雖然韓國和台灣隔著海洋，但如今嫁給台灣人的韓國女性可以擁有更多消息（資訊），且可與原有國家文化社團或社會組織保持連絡。這對來台灣之後的學習及適應台灣的新環境文化，會不會更困難或者反而更有助於適應台灣這個新環境文化呢？ 本研究是以深度訪談，探討以下各問題：這些韓國籍的台灣媳婦在適應另一環境文化時如何消除疑慮？嫁給台灣人的韓國女性在日常生活中的傳播工具使用行為對自身的疑慮消除有何影響?跨文化婚姻的韓國女性如何運用不同的疑慮消除策略來消除疑慮？傳播媒體在嫁給台灣人的韓國女性疑慮消除策略中所扮演的角色為何？ / This study takes the Korean women who married to Taiwanese as examples to explore how they adapt into new cultural environment and reduce their uncertainty。 This research, used in-depth interview method, is to discuss the following questions：1. How Korean women who married to Taiwanese reduce their uncertainty while adapting a new culture environment？ 2. How these Korean women use different uncertainty reduction strategies to reduce their uncertainty（passive、active or interactive strategies）? 3. What is the role of mass media in their uncertainty reduction strategies?

For the successful deployment of advanced nuclear systems and optimization of current reactor designs, high quality nuclear data are required. Before nuclear data can be used in applications they must first be evaluated, tested and validated against a set of integral experiments, and then converted into formats usable for applications. The evaluation process in the past was usually done by using differential experimental data which was then complemented with nuclear model calculations. This trend is fast changing due to the increase in computational power and tremendous improvements in nuclear reaction models over the last decade. Since these models have uncertain inputs, they are normally calibrated using experimental data. However, these experiments are themselves not exact. Therefore, the calculated quantities of model codes such as cross sections and angular distributions contain uncertainties. Since nuclear data are used in reactor transport codes as input for simulations, the output of transport codes contain uncertainties due to these data as well. Quantifying these uncertainties is important for setting safety margins; for providing confidence in the interpretation of results; and for deciding where additional efforts are needed to reduce these uncertainties. Also, regulatory bodies are now moving away from conservative evaluations to best estimate calculations that are accompanied by uncertainty evaluations. In this work, the Total Monte Carlo (TMC) method was applied to study the impact of nuclear data uncertainties from basic physics to macroscopic reactor parameters for the European Lead Cooled Training Reactor (ELECTRA). As part of the work, nuclear data uncertainties of actinides in the fuel, lead isotopes within the coolant, and some structural materials have been investigated. In the case of the lead coolant it was observed that the uncertainty in the keff and the coolant void worth (except in the case of 204Pb), were large, with the most significant contribution coming from 208Pb. New 208Pb and 206Pb random nuclear data libraries with realistic central values have been produced as part of this work. Also, a correlation based sensitivity method was used in this work, to determine parameter - cross section correlations for different isotopes and energy groups. Furthermore, an accept/reject method and a method of assigning file weights based on the likelihood function are proposed for uncertainty reduction using criticality benchmark experiments within the TMC method. It was observed from the study that a significant reduction in nuclear data uncertainty was obtained for some isotopes for ELECTRA after incorporating integral benchmark information. As a further objective of this thesis, a method for selecting benchmark for code validation for specific reactor applications was developed and applied to the ELECTRA reactor. Finally, a method for combining differential experiments and integral benchmark data for nuclear data adjustments is proposed and applied for the adjustment of neutron induced 208Pb nuclear data in the fast energy region.

La prévision des crues et des inondations reste aujourd’hui un défi pour anticiper et assurer la sécurité des biens et des personnes. En France, le SCHAPI, qui dépend du MEDDE, assure ce rôle. Les niveaux et les débits d’un cours d’eau dépendent étroitement des interactions à différentes échelles entre les précipitations, les caractéristiques géométriques du cours d’eau et les propriétés topographiques, géologiques et pédologiques du bassin versant. Les modèles hydrauliques, utilisés dans le cadre de la prévision des crues, sont entachés d’incertitudes qu’il est nécessaire de quantifier et de corriger afin de mieux anticiper l’évolution hydrodynamique du cours d’eau en temps réel. L’objectif de ces travaux de thèse est d’améliorer les prévisions de hauteurs d’eau et de débits, sur le bassin de la Marne, issues des modèles hydrauliques utilisés dans le cadre opérationnel de la prévision des crues à partir de méthodes d’assimilation de données. Ces prévisions reposent sur une modélisation mono-dimensionnelle (1D) de l’hydrodynamique du cours d’eau à partir du code hydraulique 1D Mascaret basé sur la résolution des équations de Saint-Venant, enrichie par une méthode d’assimilation de données in situ utilisant un Filtre de Kalman Étendu (EKF). Ce mémoire de thèse s’articule en cinq chapitres, trois dédiés à la recherche et les deux derniers à l’application opérationnelle. Le chapitre 1 présente les données et les outils utilisés pour caractériser le risque inondation dans le cadre de la prévision des crues, ainsi que les modèles hydrauliques Marne Amont Global (MAG) et Marne Moyenne (MM), sujets d’application des méthodes d’assimilation de données développées dans cette étude. Le chapitre 2 est dédié à la méthodologie : il traite des différentes sources d’incertitudes liées à la modélisation hydraulique et présente les approches d’assimilation de données de type EKF appliquées dans cette étude à travers la maquette DAMP pour les réduire. Dans le chapitre 3, cette approche est appliquée aux modèles MAG et MM en mode réanalyse pour un ensemble de crues ayant touché le bassin de la Marne par le passé. Deux publications ont été insérées dans ce chapitre "étude". Dans le chapitre 4, les corrections appliquées dans le chapitre 3, sont validées à partir du rejeu de la crue de 1983 en condition opérationnelle avec le modèle MM. La quantification des incertitudes de prévision et la réalisation de cartes de zones inondées potentielles y sont aussi abordées. L’application de ces méthodes d’assimilation de données pour les modèles MAG et MM en opérationnel au SCHAPI au niveau national et au SPC SAMA au niveau local est présentée dans le chapitre 5. Cette thèse s’inscrit dans un contexte collaboratif où chacun apporte son expertise : la modélisation hydraulique pour le LNHE, les méthodes numériques pour le CERFACS et la prévision opérationnelle pour le SCHAPI. L’ensemble de ces travaux de thèse a permis de démontrer les bénéfices et la complémentarité de l’estimation des paramètres et de l’état hydraulique par assimilation de données sur les hauteurs d’eau et les débits prévus par un modèle hydraulique 1D, ce qui constitue un enjeu d’importance pour l’anticipation du risque hydrologique. Ces méthodes ont été intégrées dans la chaîne opérationnelle de prévision du SCHAPI et du SPC SAMA. / Flood forecasting remains a challenge to anticipate and insure security of people. In France, the SCHAPI, wich depends on the MEDDE, takes this function. Water levels and discharges are highly dependent on interactions at different scales between rainfall, geometric characteristics of rivers and topographic, geological and soil properties of the watershed. Hydraulic models, used in the context of flood forecasting, are tainted by uncertainties which necessist to be quantified and corrected in order to better anticipate flow evolution in real time. The work carried out for this PhD thesis aims to improve water level and discharge forecasts on the Marne watershed, from hydraulic models used in the operational framework of flood forecasting using data assimilation methods. These forecasts come from a mono-dimensional (1D) hydraulic model Mascaret based on the resolution of Saint-Venant equations, improved by data assimilation methods using an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). This thesis consists of five chapters, three dedicated to research and the two last to the operational application. The first presents data, tools and methods used to characterize the flood risk in the context of flood forecasting, as well as the Marne Amont Global (MAG) and Marne Moyenne (MM) models, subjects of application of data assimilation methods developed in this study. The second chapter covers hydraulic model uncertainties and data assimilation methodology (Kalman filter) applied in this thesis through DAMP in order to reduce them. In the third chapter, this approach is applied to the MAG and MM models for different flood events. In the fourth chapter, the April 1983 flood event allows to validate the corrections applied in the previous chapter for the MM model in an operational context. The uncertainties evaluations and the mapping of potential flooded zones are also reported. The real-time application of these data assimilation methods for MAG and MM models by SCHAPI and SPC SAMA is presented in the fifth chapter. This thesis takes place in a collaborative work where each member brings his own expertise : the hydraulic modeling for LNHE, the numeric methods for the CERFACS and operational forecasting for the SCHAPI. This thesis shows the benefits and complementarity of the evaluation of parameters and hydraulic state using data assimilation on water levels and discharges forcasted by a 1D hydraulic model, which is an important issue for the anticipation of hydrologic risk. These methods have already been integrated to the operational chain of flood forecasting of the SCHAPI and the SPC SAMA.

This creative non-thesis project includes three theories from communication studies. Uncertainty Reduction Theory, Cultivation Theory, and Cognitive Dissonance Theory. Each theoretical framework also includes a script written with the intent of filming in the future. Those videos could be shown in communication classes. These three theories cover a breadth of knowledge in the field as they pertain to interpersonal communication, media studies, and persuasion.

Utilising a case study design in the Gauteng Province of South Africa, this study explores the perceptions of ECD practitioners regarding the professionalisation of the ECD sector. With a purposive sample of fifteen ECD practitioners teaching children aged between birth and four years this study sought to find out what is exactly happening in the sector regarding the birth of the new qualification for ECD teachers in the South African education system; which attempts to standardise a B.Ed. curriculum for new teachers in the ECD sector. Adopting the Uncertainty Reduction Theory (URT) as a lens, the study revealed that the Government and the Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) were not giving adequate support to the sector while parents viewed ECD centres as places of play and sleep rather than educational. The study concludes that the ECD sector is indispensable for the South African Education system to perform on par with other world countries and recommends that everyone; not only government; should come to the party to fix this challenge of the education system. / Dissertation (MEd)--University of Pretoria, 2017. / Early Childhood Education / MEd / Unrestricted

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This thesis seeks to explore if and how college students' dating practices have changed amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Through eight focus group interviews (n=51), participants discussed their dating practices, use of online dating platforms, and navigation of health and safety protocols. A thematic analysis was used to identify and define major themes from the focus groups. Findings revealed four themes in how college students define dating, which were relational investment, exclusivity labels, dating progression, and the role of hookup culture. When addressing how the pandemic has changed the way college students date, six themes were identified: importance of communication, technology as a tool, impact of family, violating safety norms, negative affect expression, and gaining perspective. This thesis extends academic research on how dating is defined and how uncertainty in the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted dating practices of college students at a large U.S. university in the mid-Atlantic region. / MACOM / This thesis explores the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on college students dating practices. It uses focus group interviews of undergraduate college students at a large university in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. Participants discussed their definition of 'dating,' use of technology and dating apps, and navigation of health and safety practices during a dating climate characterized by high uncertainty. Findings revealed four themes in how college students define dating, which were relational investment, exclusivity labels, dating progression, and the role of hookup culture. When addressing how the pandemic has changed the way college students date, six themes were identified: importance of communication, technology as a tool, impact of family, violating safety norms, negative affect expression, and gaining perspective. These findings have implications in how we understand dating, especially during a global health crisis.

Online dating is a popular phenomenon in the world. Since the main motivation for individuals to use online dating services is finding a partner, the communication strategies for the users to develop a relationship via online dating services and the different communication practices between online and offline dating are thought-provoking. This research aims to answer two research questions: what the communication strategies for online daters of Soul are and what the differences between online and offline dating for users of Soul, including communication practices are. These two research questions aim to increase the possibility of having a successful online dating and provide a deep insight into online dating. Based on the theoretical frameworks of uncertainty reduction theory, social information processing theory, and the hyperpersonal communication, this research interviewed 11 Chinese online daters in the application, Soul and observed their online activities. As a result, this research finds that when encounter with the potential partners, individuals will actively seek information to reduce their uncertainty. The most effective way is interrogation while the most common way is observing personal account. During the information-seeking process, the similarities including interests and hobbies are important. Self-presentation strategies contain the planning strategy, editing strategy, and the strategy of adaptation to the characteristics of the partner. Besides information seeking strategies and self-presentation strategies, individuals also use the long-term arrangement strategy. The differences between online and offline dating contain three aspects: communication practices of information processing (including information processing, communication patterns as well as communication attitudes), the imagined others through online dating communication and different social norms.