This thesis aims to investigate the long-term behaviour of the Swedish stock market under quantitative easing (QE) between the years 2015-2019 in comparison to an equally long period before the implementation of QE. The relationship is analysed within the framework of transmission channels of monetary policy and with considerations for previous research on the topic. By the means of an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, we conduct a regression analysis using the price level of the OMX Stockholm 30 (OMXS30), the value of Riksbank’s assets, the short-term interest rate and the industrial production index. The results show significant but weak evidence of a positive relationship between the OMXS30 index and the Riksbank’s assets value. Furthermore, we analyse the findings to provide an insight into the transmission of unconventional monetary policy to the stock market in a small open economy. Finally, we present some broad implications of our study, as well as suggestions for future research on the topic.

We analyse the effects of quantitative easing (QE) on Swedish bank profitability on the four largest banks in Sweden between 2015-2021 by utilizing daily stock prices as a proxy for bank profit. Using an event study approach, we find that QE has a significant positive effect on bank profitability in Sweden as wholesale funding conditions improve. This suggests that structural differences in bank funding have an impact on the effect of QE. Furthermore, we investigate the individual effects of QE on bank profitability. We determine that QE benefits banks with higher credit losses on their balance sheet due to improvements in debt serviceability. Finally, we complement our study by investigating how QE affects debtholders of the banks through credit default swaps (CDS). We find that QE reduces prices on CDS, therefore signalling an improvement in wholesale funding conditions. This indicates that both equity and debtholders perceive the effects of QE positively.

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) acted in an unprecedented fashion to drive interest rates aggressively and creatively to the zero lower bound (ZLB) and employed other unconventional monetary policy (UMP) tools to provide stimulus to the U.S. economy during the financial crisis and the subsequent extended recovery period. However, despite these innovative policy tools, the U.S. economy realized a historically weak recovery. The unconventional monetary policy tools, including the expansion of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet by purchasing longer dated securities, paying interest on reserves, and providing forward guidance, structurally changed the conduct and implementation of monetary policy from the post-WWII experience. Significant research has been developed that describes and analyzes the impact and effectiveness of this experiment in using unconventional monetary policy tools to stimulate the economy. However, very little research has been conducted that studies the response of various economic actors to the Fed’s reversal of these emergency measures as it sought to rein in a potentially overheated economy or counter incipient inflation. When the Fed methodically raised interest rates from 2015 until the end of 2018 investment spending, as indicated by private nonresidential investment spending, did not slow as expected according to mainstream economics or as evident in prior periods of monetary tightening. This anomaly should also be evident in measures at the firm level as firm investment outlays comprise the bulk of the GDP reported private nonresidential investment spending. This research study determined that firm level investment spending, as represented by the growth of total assets, did not respond negatively to the Federal Reserve’s actions that raised interest rates. Other factors such as the general improvement in GDP growth, improved business confidence in the national economy, and greater optimism of near-term firm prospects explain to a far greater degree the growth in total assets compared to Fed activity. Effectively, factors contributing to improved business confidence overwhelmed the Federal Reserve’s intention to slow investment growth by raising interest rates. This research supports the Bernanke et al. (2019) proposal and Hebden and López-Salido’s (2018) research that indicate a stimulative monetary policy when rates are constrained by the effective lower bound and characterized by a lower for longer (L4L) monetary posture results in better output and inflation outcomes. Further, this research offers empirical evidence of Bernanke’s caution that although L4L results in better outcomes, there is a potential for output and/or inflation overshoot forcing the Federal Reserve to abruptly reverse policy stance, a scenario played out by the Federal Reserve soon after it stopped tightening at the end of 2018. The results here expand the work completed by Khan and Upadhayaya (2018), and Konstantinou and Tagkalakis (2011) that business confidence has a significant influence on business investment spending by analyzing the response of business decision makers during an unprecedented time as the Federal Reserve removed emergency measures and turned to a tightening regime. / Business Administration/Interdisciplinary

The thesis aims to explain different theoretical approaches to definition of deflation, categorize deflation, define positive and negative connotations typical for each economical school, define the role of monetary policy in relation to price stability and monetary instruments with an emphasis on unconventional. The last part applies theoretical knowledge on Swiss situation, describes the interventions between years 2009 and 2016 and presents their initially predicted and subsequently real, graphically illustrated impact on economy. The theoretical part of diploma concludes that mainstream economy perception is the most suitable for definition of deflation, therefore perceive it as a negative phenomenon and calls for elimination. Each step of SNB monetary policy was controversial. The author opens the question of the necessity of intervention from 2009, explains the reasons of SNB steps from 2011 and exit strategy from 2015. However, the author do not forget on negative connotations. In the final part, thesis outlines the most discussed topics raised by Swiss interventions and opens the topic of negative rates as unconventional monetary instrument.

This thesis applies time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility to assess the effectiveness of quantitative easing in time for the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve System between the global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic. We find pronounced and statistically significant response of GDP and level of implied stock market volatility to a QE shock whereas the response of CPI is feeble and statistically insignificant. We argue that this does not necessarily imply that there is no effect of QE on CPI but rather that our model was not able to detect it. We believe that this may be due to inflation expectations channel which our model did not account for. This can be reassessed with a TVP-FAVAR model which is more suitable for such an analysis as it can encompass a larger set of variables. Moreover, apart from the US, we report increasing effectiveness of QE in time. This is opposed by the researchers who believe that QE has rather decreasing effectiveness in time because it is more efficient during economic distress and then its efficiency tends to decrease during normal times. We explain this deviation by citing other unconventional monetary tools such as credit easing, forward guidance or negative...

This thesis aims to study how much of price appreciations on the Swedish real-estate market in recent times have been fundamentally warranted, as well as if the unconventional monetary policies implemented by the Swedish central bank have had any interaction with these price escalations. The methodology employed to research this is divided into two parts. Firstly, a bubble component time series has been computed using a Kalman filtering technique in a state-space model in which the bubble is inferred from a fundamental equation. The next step involves studying the dynamics between the bubble element vis-a-vis the quantitative easing policies implemented by Riksbanken. This procedure involves estimating vector autoregressive models in which several policy variables are included in the nexus and analyzed simultaneously to better grasp how QE transmits and impacts the component for the bubble. The empirical results from the first segment designate that price inflation on the Swedish housing market has become more and more principally unjustifiable throughout the sample. However, no significant inference may be made in this stage as to whether or not the market is influenced by a speculative bubble. In the dynamic system, some, yet thin evidence is found of quantitative easing policies preceding the evolvement of exuberance in house prices. Conclusively, this thesis affirms most of the growth in the non-fundamental part of prices to an expansion of credit, which in turn cannot be accredited to the policies of the Swedish Riksbank. Only a slight expectational effect is found and therefore we conclude that quantitative easing only has a trivial impact on the development of a speculative bubble in the market for real-estate.

[pt] Este estudo define um modelo de dois países que seguem a estrutura exposta em Gertler-Karadi (2011) e formam uma união monetária. Estudamos o impacto de fricções financeiras e os efeitos de políticas monetárias não convencionais implementadas com escopo individual e geral nos países membros desta união. Mostramos que, se os parâmetros usados para limitar o balanço das instituições financeiras forem calibrados para permitir uma alavancagem mais alta, o maior acesso a capital leva a um produto que é, ao mesmo tempo, mais alto no steady state e mais frágil a choques de qualidade de capital. Também mostramos que níveis elevados de Home Bias levam a menos compartilhamento de riscos e a uma disseminação menor de choques idiosincráticos. Por fim, esse estudo também mostra que políticas monetárias não convencionais com escopo individual podem aumentar o bem-estar consideravelmente quando o Home Bias no sistema financeiro é elevado. / [en] This study lays-out a model with two countries that follow the DSGE framework with financial intermediaries set by Gertler-Karadi (2011) and form a monetary union. We study the impact of financial frictions and the effects of union-wide and country-specific unconventional monetary policies in the union s member countries. We show that, if the parameters used to limit balance sheet size are calibrated in a way to allow for higher leverage in the banking system, the easier access to capital leads to an Output level that is, at the same time, higher in the Steady State and more fragile to Capital Quality Shocks. It s also shown that high levels of home-bias lead to lower risk-sharing and lower dissemination of idiosyncratic shocks, which helps explaining why idiosyncratic shocks may cause highly persistent effects in the member countries. Finally, this study also shows that country-specific unconventional monetary policies can be considerably welfare increasing when home-bias in the financial system is high.

In this thesis, I study the transmission of monetary policy through the term structure of interest rates. This is an important topic because, with short-term nominal interest rates in many advanced economies close to their effective lower bound since 2008-2009, central banks have used `unconventional' monetary policies, such as large-scale asset purchases and forward guidance, to stimulate macroeconomic activity by, inter alia, placing downward pressure on longer-term interest rates. I focus on the mechanisms through which monetary policy influences bond yields, domestically and globally, with reference to a canonical decomposition of longer-term interest rates into expectations of future short-term interest rates, and term premia. After an introduction in chapter 1, chapter 2 appraises the use of overnight indexed swap (OIS) rates as measures of expected future monetary policy. Unlike federal funds futures (FFFs), which have regularly been used to construct measures of US interest rate expectations, OIS rates are available in many countries. I find that US OIS rates provide measures of interest rate expectations that are as good as those from FFFs, and that US, UK, Eurozone and Japanese OIS rates up to a 2-year horizon tend to accurately measure interest rate expectations, providing comparable cross-country measures of monetary policy expectations. In chapter 3, I propose a novel method for estimating interest rate expectations and term premia at short and long-term horizons: a no-arbitrage Gaussian affine dynamic term structure model (GADTSM) augmented with OIS rates. Using 3 to 24-month OIS rates, the OIS-augmented model generates estimates of the expected path of short-term interest rates out to a 10-year horizon that closely correspond to those implied by FFFs rates and survey expectations, outperforming existing GADTSMs. I study the transmission of US unconventional monetary policies in chapter 4. Using the OIS-augmented GADTSM, I carry out an event study to demonstrate that US unconventional monetary policy announcements between November 2008 and April 2013 did significantly reduce US longer-term interest rates by affecting expectations and term premia. As a result of these declines, unconventional monetary policies aided US real economic outcomes. Using a structural vector autoregression, I show that changes in interest rate expectations, linked to monetary policy signalling, had more expansionary effects on US real economic outcomes than changes in term premia, associated with portfolio rebalancing. Chapter 5 assesses the international transmission of monetary policy through the term structure of interest rates between advanced economies. I present a micro-founded, two-country model with endogenous portfolio choice amongst country-specific short and long-term bonds, and equity. Within the model, US monetary policy has sizeable effects on longer-term interest rates in other advanced economies, which are similar to empirical estimates. Using the OIS-augmented GADTSM in an event study, I show that US monetary policy has led to changes in interest rate expectations in other advanced economies that amplify global spillovers, which have been partly mitigated by changes in term premia through portfolio rebalancing.

Submitted by Daniel Albuquerque Maranhão de Lima (daniel.maranhao.lima@gmail.com) on 2016-06-01T02:19:51Z No. of bitstreams: 1 output.pdf: 429570 bytes, checksum: 0fe975444d41f0be6bc01f2cb18d4a2d (MD5) / Rejected by Letícia Monteiro de Souza (leticia.dsouza@fgv.br), reason: Prezado Daniel, Favor alterar seu trabalho de acordo com as normas ABNT: 1 - cabeçalho da capa: O nome da fundação e também da escola devem constar. Favor verificar trabalho de seus outros amigos para comparação. Atenciosamente, Letícia Monteiro 3799-3631 on 2016-06-01T12:09:37Z (GMT) / Submitted by Daniel Albuquerque Maranhão de Lima (daniel.maranhao.lima@gmail.com) on 2016-06-02T02:11:45Z No. of bitstreams: 1 output.pdf: 429714 bytes, checksum: a733d2b7e509a82de2f56129c3f6527e (MD5) / Rejected by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br), reason: Bom dia Daniel, Faltou a página de AGRADECIMENTOS após a folha de assinaturas - deve agradecer pelo menos seu orientador. Na capa e contra capa descer um pouco seu nome deixa mais no meio da página. Grata. Suzi 3799-7876 on 2016-06-02T11:59:26Z (GMT) / Submitted by Daniel Albuquerque Maranhão de Lima (daniel.maranhao.lima@gmail.com) on 2016-06-03T01:24:49Z No. of bitstreams: 1 diss.pdf: 430517 bytes, checksum: a8e7f210288cce77003117755a089a5b (MD5) / Rejected by Letícia Monteiro de Souza (leticia.dsouza@fgv.br), reason: Prezado Daniel, Favor alterar seu trabalho de acordo com as normas ABNT: 1- como os agradecimentos são em português, o título também deverá ser. Caso queira deixar o em inglês, favor deixar o texto na língua respectiva. Atenciosamente, Letícia Monteiro 3799-3631 on 2016-06-03T12:23:46Z (GMT) / Submitted by Daniel Albuquerque Maranhão de Lima (daniel.maranhao.lima@gmail.com) on 2016-06-03T12:29:32Z No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertação.pdf: 430340 bytes, checksum: de324c6aaec40365c016a31d8593c460 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Letícia Monteiro de Souza (leticia.dsouza@fgv.br) on 2016-06-03T12:33:10Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertação.pdf: 430340 bytes, checksum: de324c6aaec40365c016a31d8593c460 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-03T12:37:54Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertação.pdf: 430340 bytes, checksum: de324c6aaec40365c016a31d8593c460 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-05-05 / Logo após à crise financeira de 2007-08 o Federal Reserve interveio para tentar controlar a recessão. No entanto, ele não apenas baixou os juros, como também adotou políticas não-convencionais, incluindo o empréstimo direto para empresas em mercados de crédito de alto nível. Estas novas medidas foram controversas e alguns opositores protestaram porque elas estariam ajudando disproporcionalmente aquelas pessoas ligadas ao sistema financeiro que já eram ricas. Nós utilizamos um modelo DSGE para a análise de políticas monetária não convencional e introduzimos dois tipos distintos de agentes, capitalistas e trabalhadores, para investigar o seu impacto distributivo. Nós encontramos que a política de crédito to Fed foi bem sucedida no mercado de trabalho, o que ajuda mais os trabalhadores, e introduziu um novo competidor no mercado bancário, o governo, o que prejudica mais os capitalistas. Logo, nós encontramos que a política de crédito diminuiu a desigualdade nos EUA. / In the aftermath of the 2007-08 financial crisis the Federal Reserve intervened to help fight the recession. However, it not only lowered interest rates, but also put in practice unconventional measures, including direct lending to companies in high-grade credit markets. These new measures were controversial and some opponents protested it for helping disproportionately the already wealthy individuals tied to the financial sector. We build on a conventional DSGE model for unconventional monetary policy evaluation and introduce two distinct types of agents, capitalists and workers, to assess its distributive impact. We find that the credit policy by the Fed was effective in labor markets, which helps relatively more workers, and introduced a new competitor to banks, the government, which hurts capitalists more. Thus, we find that the credit policy lowered inequality in the US.

La crise financière mondiale qui a débuté en 2008, et la crise des dettes souveraines en zone euro qui l'a suivie, ont successivement forcé les macroéconomistes à repenser leur cadre conceptuel. Cette thèse est une modeste contribution aux efforts colossaux déployés par les macroéconomistes à travers le monde pour faire face à ce défi: renforcer la compréhension de l'utilisation optimale des outils de politique économique non conventionnels. A cette fin, elle est construite en deux parties. Chaque partie vise à explorer au plan théorique un "contexte macroéconomique-type" au sein duquel des outils de politique économique non conventionnels ont été employés ces dernières années. La première partie, intitulée "Politique Non Conventionelle Optimale en Economie Ouverte", analyse l'utilisation optimale d'instruments de politique économique non conventionels par une banque centrale en économie ouverte. En présence de frictions financières qui modifient la manière dont la politique monétaire affecte l'économie, ou en présence de chocs exogènes qui mettent en défaut la "divine coïncidence", cette partie décrit comment un banquier central devrait combiner un instrument de politique monétaire non conventionnelle et la politique monétaire conventionnelle à des fins de stabilisation macroéconomique. La seconde partie, "Politique Budgétaire Optimale en Union Monétaire", adopte le point de vue du gouvernement d'un pays situé en union monétaire (typiquement la zone euro). Un tel pays ne disposant d'une politique monétaire autonome (au plan national), cette partie étudie la possibilité pour un tel pays d'utiliser la politique budgétaire comme un outil de stabilisation, et décrit l'utilisation optimale des dévaluations fiscales en réponse à des chocs exogènes idiosyncratiques. / The 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent euro area sovereign debt crisis successively forced macroeconomists to reassess this conceptual framework. This thesis is a modest contribution to the huge efforts undertaken by macroeconomists following the crisis to meet this challenge, i.e. to develop some insights about the optimal use of unconventional policy tools. To do so, this thesis is twofold. Each part intends to explore from a theoretical perspective a fundamental macroeconomic situation that called for the use of unconventional policy instruments in the recent years. The first part, ”Optimal Unconventional Policy in An Open Economy” analyzes the optimal use of unconventional policy instruments by the central bank in an open economy framework. Assuming that the presence of financial frictions changes the way monetary policy affects the economy, or that the occurence of exogenous shocks breaks the ”divine coincidence”, this part describes how a central bank should combine an unconventional policy instrument and conventional monetary policy to favor macroeconomic stabilization. The second part, ”Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Currency Union”, takes the standpoint of the governement of a country located in a currency union (typically the euro area). Such a country being deprived of monetary policy autonomy, this part considers the opportunity of using fiscal policy as a stabilization tool, and describes the optimal use of fiscal devaluations following idiosyncratic exogenous shocks.