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Analyses and designs of a peak-power tracking system using microprocessor control are performed. Large-signal stability of the system for various modes of operation is analyzed to predict system dynamics. The stability analysis is supported mainly by qualitative graphical representations of different component blocks of the system. Small-signal stability analysis around the equilibrium points is done to assure proper performance and operation of this particular peak-power tracking system. Specific design details and procedures are discussed, and predictions from the analyses are verified through hardware. / Master of Science

Electricity prices in competitive markets are extremely volatile with salient features such as mean-reversion and jumps and spikes. Modeling electricity spot prices is essential for asset and project valuation as well as risk management. I introduce the mean-reversion feature into a classical variance gamma model to model the electricity price dynamics as a mean-reverting variance gamma (MRVG) process. Derivative pricing formulae are derived through transform analysis and model parameters are estimated by the generalized method of moments and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. A real option approach is proposed to value a tolling contract incorporating operational characteristics of the generation asset and contractual constraints. Two simulation-based methods are proposed to solve the valuation problem. The effects of different electricity price assumptions on the valuation of tolling contracts are examined. Based on the valuation model, I also propose a heuristic scheme for hedging tolling contracts and demonstrate the validity of the hedging scheme through numerical examples. Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and Generalized ARCH (GARCH) models are widely used to model price volatility in financial markets. Considering a GARCH model with heavy-tailed innovations for electricity price, I characterize the limiting distribution of a Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimator of the conditional electricity price distribution, which corresponds to the extremal quantile of the conditional distribution of the GARCH price process. I propose two methods, the normal approximation method and the data tilting method, for constructing confidence intervals for the conditional VaR estimator and assess their accuracies by simulation studies. The proposed approach is applied to electricity spot price data taken from the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland market to obtain confidence intervals of the empirically estimated Value-at-Risk of electricity prices. Several directions that deserve further investigation are pointed out for future research.

This thesis attempts to explain to what degree residential electricity prices will increase due to compliance with the sulfur dioxide provisions of the 1990 Clean Air Amendments. The Amendments were passed with widely varying estimates of the costs to the final consumer. These estimates ranged from 3 percent to 30 percent. Models were developed based on the regulatory rate structure of investor-owned utilities in the United States. The utilities were grouped by their historical selection of fuels and pollution control equipment and Chow tests were performed to identify if structural differences exist between these groups. A single equation was then derived that separated variables that created the structural difference. Regressions were then run to test the historical relationship between the electric utilities’ costs and residential bills. Next forecasts were run using the regression model above corrected for heteroskedasticity and serial correlation and compared with three estimates of increases in electric bills made before the Bill was passed. / Master of Arts

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2000. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The South African Electricity Distribution Industry is riddled with tariffs. Every utility in South Africa probably uses some method for allocating cost, whether it is theoretically founded or not. There are currently over 2000 different tariffs in South Africa and the need for rationalisation has been widely recognised and acknowledged. Many of these tariffs have not been the outflow of accepted methodologies but rather a function of individual utility policy and practices. There is however a dire need to standardise such methodologies in the future. A standardised methodology might be the only way to eventually rationalise the thousands of tariffs that exist in the electricity industry. Government has emphasised the importance of tariffs to be cost reflective in the future. The only possible way to reach this objective would be to determine clear and concise methods of allocating cost that can be utilised by the entire industry. This study project describes a standardised methodology for determining the cost to supply different customer categories in an electricity distributor. The methodology offers enough flexibility not to bind any party into laboursome, complex and time consuming costing activities. It does however require that the costs of a distributor are carefully investigated and all functions performed in the utility are isolated. This is referred to as ringfencing of costs. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die Suid-Afrikaanse Elektrisiteitverspreidingsbedryf het veelvuldige tariewe. Elke utiliteit in Suid-Afrika gebruik waarskynlik 'n metode vir kostetoedeling, wat nie noodwendig teoreties gebaseer is nie. Huidiglik is daar meer as 2000 verskillende tariewe in Suid-Afrika en dit word alom besef en erken dat gronde vir rasionalisering bestaan. Baie van die tariewe het nie ontstaan uit die gebruik van aanvaarbare berekeningsmetodes nie, maar was eerder die gevolg van individuele beleid en praktyke van utiliteite. Daar is 'n dringende behoefte om hierdie berekeningsmetodes in die toekoms te standardiseer. 'n Standaard metode mag die enigste manier wees om uiteindelik die duisende tariewe wat in die elektrisiteitsbedryf bestaan te rasionaliseer. Die regering het die belangrikheid dat tariewe in die toekoms koste reflekterend moet wees benadruk. Die enigste moontlike manier om hierdie doelwit te bereik, is om helder en duidelike metodes vir koste toedeling te bepaal vir gebruik deur die hele bedryf. Hierdie verhandeling beskryf 'n standaard metodologie om die koste te bepaal om verskillende klantegroepe in 'n elektrisiteitsverspreider van krag te voorsien. Die metodologie bied voldoende plooibaarheid om geen party aan arbeidintensiewe, kompleks en tydrowende kostebepalings te verbind nie. Dit vereis egter dat die koste van 'n verspreider noukeurig ondersoek word en dat alle funksies wat verrig word uitgelig word. Hierna word verwys as afbakening van kostes.

by Mak Chai-ming. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1991. / Bibliography: leaves 58-59. / ABSTRACT --- p.ii / TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.iii / LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS --- p.v / ACKNOWLEDGEMENT --- p.vi / Chapter / Chapter I --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter II. --- THE POWER INDUSTRY AND ITS PRODUCT --- p.3 / The Characteristics of Electricity --- p.3 / Power Industry of Hong Kong --- p.4 / The Product Profile of Electricity --- p.5 / Load Factor --- p.6 / Load Factor and Cost --- p.7 / Chapter III. --- BUSINESS CHALLENGES IN THE POST WAR DECADES --- p.12 / The Critical Problems - The First Challenge --- p.13 / The Scheme of Control Agreement --- p.14 / Goals and Objectives of CLP --- p.15 / Coal as Input - The Second Challenge --- p.16 / Chapter IV. --- COST OF ELECTRICITY AND ITS PRICING --- p.18 / The Tariff Structures --- p.18 / The Tariff of the Past --- p.19 / The Present Tariff --- p.19 / Cost of Service Study Model --- p.20 / Cost Identification --- p.21 / Cost Functionalisation --- p.21 / Costing Period Determination --- p.22 / Cost Allocation --- p.27 / Results and Interpretation --- p.28 / Rate of Return Determination --- p.28 / Unit Cost Analysis --- p.31 / Chapter V. --- REVIEW OF THE PRESENT TARIFF STRUCTURE --- p.35 / Objectives of the Present Tariff --- p.35 / Performance of the Tariff --- p.36 / Performance of the Company --- p.37 / Load Factor Improvement --- p.40 / Chapter VI --- THE NEW CHALLENGES AND THE STRATEGIES --- p.42 / The New Challenges --- p.42 / Changes in The External Market --- p.42 / The 1997 Issue of Hong Kong --- p.43 / Fuel Advantages Exhausted --- p.44 / The Company's Strategies Facing the New Challenges --- p.44 / Deferring Capital Investment --- p.45 / Supply Side Management --- p.45 / Diversification --- p.46 / Chapter VII. --- PROJECTED PERFORMANCE OF THE TARIFF --- p.49 / Maximum Demand Forecast and Generating Capacity Requirement --- p.49 / Projected Expenditure and Revenue Requirement --- p.50 / The New Objectives of the Tariff --- p.50 / Least Cost Planning --- p.50 / Energy Conservation --- p.50 / Factors to Consider for the Detailed Design of the Tariff --- p.50 / Price Elasticity --- p.52 / Scheme of Control --- p.52 / Load Factor Improvement --- p.52 / Chapter VIII. --- CONCLUSION --- p.53 / APPENDIX --- p.54 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.58

EThekwini Electricity (EE) purchases its energy on the Megaflex tariff from Eskom which has had considerable changes in content over the years. This has caused the present tariffs offered by EE to move away from cost reflectivity. Structural changes over the years have caused distortion to even the supposedly cost reflect ‘Time of Use’ tariff (TOU) which emulated Eskom’s previous Large Power Users (LPU) tariffs. The divergence between the purchase of electricity and the method of recovery for the sales becomes a cause for concern. This opens EE to risk of not being able to offer cost reflective tariffs and diminish risks in recovery via the tariffs. This has an impact on the budgeted revenue. The primary intention of this study was to establish a formalised procedure and to develop a methodology that Ethekwini Electricity (EE) can use for the review of their tariffs. This study was necessary and extremely crucial for the mitigation of financial risk when tariffs are reviewed and restructured since the revenue recovered via the tariffs are in excess of 5 billion rand per annum. The study consisted of the development of a methodology which consists of a process flowchart and a series of Excel spreadsheets in which the analysis was done. The development of the model utilised information that were readily available and data that were extracted and manipulated from installed systems. The objectives were to determine all associated costs for the delivery of electricity, identify cost drivers, determine cost structure and finally determine applicable tariffs for EE. Issues such as customer categorisation, cross subsidisation, cost reflectivity and affordability were taken into account. This model could now be used in the future for tariff increases and applications to the regulator. This methodology was used to design of the 2009/2010 electricity tariffs for Ethekwini Electricity. The outcome of this study resulted in the re-categorisation of EE’s customer base, changes to the tariff structures and the phasing out of the non cost reflective tariffs. This study enabled the restructure of the LPU TOU tariff which was crucial for EE’s cost recovery. It also resulted in the development of two new TOU tariffs for residential and commercial customers. Whilst other municipalities experienced difficulties in recovering their revenue due to Eskom’s restructured Megaflex tariff, EE’s actual revenue differed by 1% when it was compared to the budgeted revenue towards the end of 2009. / Thesis (M.Sc.Eng.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, 2010.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Hawaii at Manoa, 2004. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 111-120). / Also available by subscription via World Wide Web / xii, 120 leaves, bound ill. 29 cm