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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

Contrastes de no invertibilidad y cointegración en modelos VARIMA

Díaz Vela, Carlos 23 March 2012 (has links)
En esta tesis doctoral se deriva un procedimiento de contraste localmente óptimo para la hipótesis nula de cointegración en modelos ARIMA multivariantes. Si existen combinaciones lineales estacionarias entre las variables integradas que componen el sistema objeto de análisis, la diferenciación simultánea de las mismas introduce una estructura MA(1) adicional no invertible en el modelo VARIMA que sigue el vector de series. El procedimiento de análisis que se propone en esta tesis, por tanto, consiste en ajustar un modelo VARIMA al vector de series y detectar la presencia de cointegración contrastando la no invertibilidad del polinomio media móvil. Para ello se deriva la extensión multivariante de los contrastes de no invertibilidad tanto para el modelo básico VIMA(1,1) como para el modelo general VARIMA(p,1,q+1). En este último caso, se propone una corrección paramétrica basada en los residuos exactos del modelo, alternativa a las correcciones no paramétricas habituales en la literatura. / In this doctoral thesis a locally optimal testing procedure for the null of cointegration in multivariate ARIMA models is derived. If there are linear combinations of integrated variables that are stationary, simultaneously differencing them introduces an additional noninvertible MA(1) structure to the VARIMA model that describes the vector of time series. The procedure of analysis proposed in this thesis consists of fitting a VARIMA model to the vector of series and detecting the presence of cointegration testing the noninvertibility of the moving average polynomial. To this aim, the multivariate extension of the noninvertibility tests in the basic model VIMA(1,1) and in the general VARIMA(p,1,q+1) model are derived. In the latter case, a parametric correction based on the exact residuals of the model is proposed, alternative to the non parametric corrections common in the literature.

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