In this study, time series analysis and factor analysis of multivariate analysis were applied to surface water quality monitoring data sets. In order to gain a better understanding on water pollution situations and sources of different river basin, we have done some statistical analysis according to the water quality monitoring data from the database of Environmental Protection Administration Executive Yuan in the years from 2004 to 2008. The statistical analysis is based on the aforementioned contents to find the common latent factors of the water pollution and try to explain the main sources of water pollution of river basins. Specifically the water quality monitoring data of the Tamsui River and the Kao-Ping River basin are analyzed. In seriously polluted areas, from the time series results they reveal that the water quality monitoring data has significant serial correlations. Therefore we firstly use vector autoregression (VAR) model to eliminate the dynamic dependencies of data, and later perform the factor analysis for the residuals. With this analysis procedure, the resulting models and factor variables from the factor analysis, sufficiently explained water quality variables with the potential relationship between environmental pollution in the region.

The objective of this thesis is to develop alternative forms of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models for forecasting the South African economy and, in turn, compare them with the forecasts generated by the Classical and Bayesian variants of the Vector Autoregression Models (VARs). Such a comparative analysis is aimed at developing a small-scale micro-founded framework that will help in forecasting the key macroeconomic variables of the economy. The thesis consists of three independent papers. The first paper develops a small-scale DSGE model based on Hansen's (1985) indivisible labor Real Business Cycle (RBC) model. The results suggest that, compared to the VARs and the Bayesian VARs, the DSGE model produces large out-of-sample forecast errors. In the basic RBC framework, business cycle fluctuations are purely driven by real technology shocks. This one-shock assumption makes the RBC models stochastically singular. In order to overcome the singularity problem in the RBC model developed in the first paper, the second paper develops a hybrid model (DSGE-VAR), in which the theoretical model is augmented with unobservable errors having a VAR representation. The model is estimated via maximum likelihood technique. The results suggest DSGE-VAR model outperforms the Classical VAR, but not the Bayesian VARs. However, it does indicate that the forecast accuracy can be improved alarmingly by using the estimated version of the DSGE model. The third paper develops a micro-founded New-Keynesian DSGE (NKDSGE) model. The model consists of three equations, an expectational IS curve, a forward-looking version of the Phillips curve, and a Taylor-type monetary policy rule. The results indicate that, besides the usual usage for policy analysis, a small-scale NKDSGE model has a future for forecasting. The NKDSGE model outperforms both the Classical and Bayesian variants of the VARs in forecasting inflation, but not for output growth and the nominal short-term interest rate. However, the differences of the forecast errors are minor. The indicated success of the NKDSGE model for predicting inflation is important, especially in the context of South Africa - an economy targeting inflation. / Thesis (PhD (Economics))--University of Pretoria, 2008. / Economics / unrestricted

The research aims to investigate the relationship between economic freedom, political freedom and economic growth. The Arab Spring placed renewed interest on the topic of freedom, yet current economic conditions seemingly contradicted the established theory. The largest free economies were being outperformed by those with less political and economic freedom.Three objectives were specified to answer the research question. The first objective aimed to determine the association between economic freedom, political freedom and economic growth, for which Spearman’s correlation was used. The second objective aimed to investigate causal relationships between the variables, for which Granger’s causality was employed. The third objective aimed to examine complex relationships between the variables, for which vector autoregression was used.Economic growth was weakly correlated with the independent variables. Civil liberties, political rights and economic freedom, however, had strong correlations with each other. Economic freedom and economic growth had bi-directional Granger-causality. Political rights Granger-caused economic freedom whilst civil liberties Granger-caused political rights and economic freedom. Using vector autoregression, the model consisting of economic growth, economic freedom and civil liberties had the greatest explanatory power towards economic growth. Existing theory therefore remains valid: political freedom enhances economic freedom, which, in turn, enhances economic growth.The relationship between economic freedom, political freedom and economic growth / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted

With economic uncertainties on the rise, understanding the relationship between consumer price inflation and consumer confidence becomes increasingly vital. This thesis investigates the relationship between Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) and Consumer confidence, specifically within the context of Sweden. The relationship is examined through the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, spanning from the period 2002 to 2023. Drawing upon existing literature and theoretical frameworks in economics and psychology, this research provides a deeper understanding of the relationship between the two variables. By incorporating data up to 2023, this thesis will also examine the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the relationship between these key macroeconomic indicators. The results show statistically significant evidence that consumer price inflation predicts consumer confidence. Thus, we conclude that consumer price inflation plays a significant role in the dynamics of consumer confidence, influencing both economic conditions and expectations.

Η παρούσα μελέτη εξετάζει τη δυναμική σχέση μεταξύ των τιμών των ζωοτροφών και παραγωγού, καταναλωτή για τέσσερα είδη κρέατος: μοσχάρι, χοιρινό, αρνί και κοτόπουλο. Η σχετική βιβλιογραφία δείχνει ότι πολλοί παράγοντες επιδρούν στις τιμές των αγροτικών προϊόντων αλλά οι τιμές των ζωοτροφών είναι ο κυριότερος. Αυτό συμβαίνει γιατί οι ζωοτροφές αποτελούν πρώτη ύλη για την παραγωγή κρέατος και κατ΄επέκταση θα επηρέασουν τις τιμές παραγωγού και καταναλωτή. Τα δεδομένα αποτελούνται από 279 μηνιαίες τιμές που εκτείνονται από τον Ιανουάριο 1990 έως τον Ιανουάριο 2013. Χρησιμοποιώντας Johansen cointegration tests, Granger causality tests και impulse response functions τα εμπειρικά αποτελέσματα επιβεβαιώνουν πως οι τιμές των ζωοτροφών, οι τιμές παραγωγού και οι τιμές καταναλωτή δεν είναι ανεξάρτητες μεταξύ τους. / The present paper studies the relationship among feed prices, producer prices and consumer prices of meat: beef, pork, poultry and lamb. The literature indicates that there are many factors which affect agricultural commodity prices but the feed prices are the main. This is why feed has a principal role in the production of meat and will affect producer and consumer prices. The data consists of 279 monthly observations extending from January 1990 to January 2013. Using Johansen cointegration tests, Granger causality tests and impulse response functions, the empirical findings confirm that feed prices, consumer prices and producer prices are interdependent.

It has long been accepted that changes in monetary policy have real economic effects; however, the mechanism by which these policy changes are transmitted to the real economy has been the subject of much debate. Traditionally the transmission mechanism of monetary policy has consisted of various channels which include the money channel, the asset price channel and the exchange rate channel. Recent developments in economic theory have led to a relatively new channel of policy transmission, termed the credit channel. The credit channel consists of the bank lending channel as well as the balance sheet channel, and focuses on the demand for credit as the variable of interest. The credit channel is based on the notion that demanders and suppliers of credit face asymmetric information problems which create a gap between the cost of external funds and the cost of internally generated funds, referred to as the wedge. The aim here is to determine the size and lag length effects of changes in credit demand, by both firms as well as households, as a result of changes in interest rates. A secondary, but subordinate, aim is to test for a balance sheet channel of monetary policy transmission. A vector autoregressive (VAR) model is used in conjunction with causality tests, impulse response functions and variance decompositions to achieve the stated objectives. Results indicate that the interest rate elasticity of credit demand, for both firms and households, is interest inelastic and therefore the monetary policy authorities have a limited ability to influence credit demand in the short as well as medium term. In light of the second aim, only weak evidence of a balance sheet channel of policy transmission is found.

台灣不動產投資信託（T-REITs）自2005年發行至今已逾六年，然其市場表現仍不如發行之初所預期。過去國內已有許多研究針對T-REITs市場發展進行探討，然而目前就T-REITs與直接不動產投資市場價格表現間之相關研究尚付之闕如。有鑑於此，本研究藉由共整合與Granger因果關係檢定，檢視REITs與直接不動產市場間之關聯性，了解台灣與美國之REITs市場表現差異及其影響因素，進而作為改進T-REITs運作機制或架構之參考依據。 實證結果發現，美國之REITs與直接不動產市場之間存在共整合關係。此結果表示，長期而言，這兩者可能具有相似之風險分散效益。此外，透過Granger因果關係檢定發現REITs領先於直接不動產，乃因前者市場較具效率。另一方面，台灣之REITs與直接不動產市場之間則不具有共整合以及領先或落後關係，然直接不動產當期價格仍會受到本身與REITs之前期價格影響。 本研究進一步分析台、美兩國實證結果之差異原因如下：資料的樣本期間、REITs市場規模、存在於T-REITs市場之集中性風險以及潛在的代理問題。其中，針對T-REITs潛在代理問題，本研究藉由分析股票與T-REIT報酬率之波動性，發現T-REIT之不動產管理機構若與母集團相關者，則其市場表現較差。因此，我們得出T-REITs市場發展主要是受限於代理問題之結論。本研究成果不僅有助於改善T-REITs市場效率，亦可提供學術與實務之參考。 / The mechanism of Real Estate Investment Trusts in Taiwan (or T-REITs) was launched in 2005, however, T-REITs market did not perform as expected. What caused the limited development of T-REITs market? Current literature on the performance between T-REITs and direct real estate investment is limited. Through the cointegration and Granger causality tests, the purpose of this study is hence to explore the short-term and long-term dynamics between REITs and direct real estate markets in the U.S. and Taiwan, respectively. This study presents evidence of the cointegration relationship between REITs and direct real estate in the U.S. It implies that the diversification properties of these two assets are likely to be similar over the long horizon. According to the Granger causality test, REITs leads direct real estate due to the market information efficiency. These findings are consistent with those of previous studies. On the other hand, we find no cointegration and lead-lag relation between T-REITs and commercial real estate. Moreover, the current commercial transaction price is affected by both its and T-REIT previous price. By comparing the difference between the results of these two countries, there are several possible explanations for the different results between the U.S. and Taiwan, including difference in sample period, market capitalization, concentrated risk, and most importantly, the potential agency problem existing in T-REITs market. Finally, the underperformance of parent-related management T-REIT is verified through the volatilities of stock and T-REIT returns. Therefore, we conclude that the limited development of T-REITs is caused by the agency problem in REITs market. Results of this study may provide T-REITs market for improving its efficiency, as well as for the reference for both academics and real practices.