Anthropogenic activities including urbanization, rapid industrialization, deforestation and burning of fossil fuels are broadly agreed on as primary causes for ongoing climate change. Scientists agree that climate change over the next century will continue to impact water resources with serious implications including storm surge flooding and a sea level rise projected for North America. To date, the majority of climate change studies conducted across the globe have been for large-sized watersheds; more attention is required to assess the impact of climate change on smaller watersheds, which can help to better frame sustainable water management strategies. In the first of three studies described in this dissertation, trends in annual precipitation and air-temperature across the Commonwealth of Kentucky were evaluated using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test considering meteorological time series data from 84 weather stations. Results indicated that while annual precipitation and mean annual temperature have been stable for most of Kentucky over the period 1950-2010, there is evidence of increases (averages of 4.1 mm/year increase in annual precipitation and 0.01 °C/year in mean annual temperature) along the borders of the Kentucky. Considered in its totality, available information indicates that climate change will occur – indeed, it is occurring – and while much of the state might not clearly indicate it at present, Kentucky will almost certainly not be exempt from its effects. Spatial analysis of the trend results indicated that eastern part of the state, which is characterized by relatively high elevations, has been experiencing decreasing trends in precipitation. In the second study, trends and variability of seven extreme precipitation indices (total precipitation on wet days, PRCPTOT; maximum length of dry and wet periods, CDD and CWD, respectively; number of days with precipitation depth ≥20 mm, R20mm; maximum five-day precipitation depth, RX5day; simple daily precipitation intensity, SDII; and standardized precipitation index, SPI were analyzed for the Kentucky River Basin for both baseline period of 1986-2015 and the late-century time frame of 2070-2099. For the baseline period, the majority of the indices demonstrated increasing trends; however, statistically significant trends were found for only ~11% of station-index combinations of the 16 weather stations considered. Projected magnitudes for PRCPTOT, CDD, CWD, RX5day and SPI, indices associated with the macroweather regime, demonstrated general consistency with trends previously identified and indicated modest increases in PRCPTOT and CWD, slight decreases in CDD, mixed results for RX5day, and increased non-drought years in the late century relative to the baseline period. The study’s findings indicate that future conditions might be characterized by more rainy days but fewer large rainfall events; this might lead to a scenario of increased average annual rainfall but, at the same time, increased water scarcity during times of maximum demand. In the third and final study, the potential impact of climate change on hydrologic processes and droughts over the Kentucky River basin was studied using the watershed model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The SWAT model was successfully calibrated and validated and then forced with forecasted precipitation and temperature outputs from a suite of CMIP5 global climate model (GCMs) corresponding to two different representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) for two time periods: 2036-2065 and 2070-2099, referred to as mid-century and late-century, respectively. Climate projections indicate that there will be modest increases in average annual precipitation and temperature in the future compared to the baseline (1976-2005) period. Monthly variations of water yield and surface runoff demonstrated an increasing trend in spring and autumn, while winter months are projected as having decreasing trends. In general, maximum drought length is expected to increase, while drought intensity might decrease under future climatic conditions. Hydrological droughts (reflective of water availability), however, are predicted to be less intense but more persistent than meteorological droughts (which are more reflective of only meteorological variables). Results of this study could be helpful for preparing any climate change adaptation plan to ensure sustainable water resources in the Kentucky River Basin.

No description available.

In recent decades, changes in land use and land cover (LULC) arising from socio-economic development, coupled with climate change, have severely undermined and compromised the environmental sustainability of the upper part of Dong Nai (UPDN) river basin. Assessing the long-term impacts of climate change and changes in LULC on hydrological conditions and water balance in the UPDN river basin is essential for sustainable watershed management. In the present study, Landsat images and SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model were used to assess water balance changes due to changes of climate and LULC at three different intervals: 1994, 2004, and 2014. The results of Landsat images classification indicated that forest land was the main LULC type in the basin. In 1994 the forest cover was 706,803 ha (72.68% of the total landmass). In 2004 the forest area dropped to 520,359 ha (53.51%). In 2014 the forest area dropped further to 485,908 ha (49.97%). The change in LULC has caused changes in the annual and peak water flows. The analysis of the results revealed that the effect of historical climate variations on water yield was greater than the LULC change. With the scenario of LULC 2014, the consumption of irrigation water was the highest and mainly in the dry season. The findings can provide useful information for decision-makers in planning and formulating policies for sustainable watershed management and climate change adaptation. / Trong những thập niên gần đây, sự thay đổi về sử dụng đất và thực phủ (LULC) do những hoạt động phát triển kinh tế - xã hội cùng với biến đổi khí hậu đã đặt ra những thách thức cho sự bền vững về môi trường ở lưu vực thượng nguồn sông Đồng Nai (UPDN). Đánh giá các tác động lâu dài của biến đổi khí hậu và những thay đổi trong LULC đến điều kiện thủy văn và cân bằng nước là việc cần thiết cho quản lý bền vững nguồn nước. Trong nghiên cứu này, các ảnh vệ tinh Landsat, công cụ đánh giá đất và nước (SWAT) được sử dụng để đánh giá sự thay đổi cân bằng nước do sự thay đổi khí hậu và LULC tại ba thời điểm khác nhau 1994, 2004 và 2014. Kết quả phân loại các ảnh Landsat cho thấy rừng là loại thực phủ chính trong lưu vực. Diện tích rừng của năm 1994 là 706.803 ha (72,68%). Diện tích rừng của năm 2004 đã giảm xuống còn 520.359 ha (53,1%) và đến năm 2014 chỉ còn 485.908ha (49,97%). Thay đổi sử dụng đất và thực phủ đã làm thay đổi chế độ thủy văn và dòng chảy đỉnh. Phân tích kết quả đã xác định rằng những sự thay đổi về điều kiện khí hậu trong quá khứ có ảnh hưởng đến lượng nước lớn hơn so với thay đổi về thực phủ. Với kịch bản LULC năm 2014, nhu cầu sử dụng nước tưới cho cây trồng là lớn nhất và chủ yếu trong mùa khô. Những kết quả đạt được trong nghiên cứu này sẽ cung cấp thông tin hữu ích cho các nhà hoạch định trong lập kế hoạch và ban hành chính sách cho quản lý lưu vực bền vững, thích ứng với biến đổi khí hậu.

Submitted by Johnny Rodrigues (johnnyrodrigues@ufcg.edu.br) on 2018-05-16T16:02:56Z No. of bitstreams: 1 ROMÉRCIA BATISTA DOS SANTOS - DISSERTAÇÃO PPGSA PROFISSIONAL 2013..pdf: 1113569 bytes, checksum: 29bd7b553a65415a734895bc13bc037a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-05-16T16:02:56Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ROMÉRCIA BATISTA DOS SANTOS - DISSERTAÇÃO PPGSA PROFISSIONAL 2013..pdf: 1113569 bytes, checksum: 29bd7b553a65415a734895bc13bc037a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-12-20 / O presente trabalho propôs correlacionar atividades agroindustriais com a saúde humana e ambiental, tendo o Perímetro Irrigado de São Gonçalo-PB, como local de estudo. Para isto analisou-se a água bruta e tratada oriunda do referido perímetro, através de parâmetros físico-químicos e microbiológicos, como objeto maior de investigação. A pesquisa caracteriza-se de natureza quantitativa, qualitativa e descritiva. Foram georreferenciados oito pontos de amostragem, sendo que quatro pontos foram de água bruta e quatro de água tratada. As coletas foram realizadas em 2012, durante seis meses, considerando abril, maio e junho como período de inverno e, outubro, novembro e dezembro como época de seca. Fez-se também um levantamento dos indicadores básicos das condições sanitárias e socioambientais que refletem diretamente na saúde humana e no ecossistema. Os resultados físicoquímicos e microbiológicos foram avaliados com base nas legislações vigentes. Assim, foi possível constatar que tanto as amostras da água bruta e tratada, em relação aos atributos físico-químicos, estes se mantiveram dentro dos limites permitidos (Res. CONAMA 375/05 e Portaria MS nº2914/11, respectivamente). Os resultados microbiológicos constataram presença de coliformes, de presença total e termotolerantes para as amostras de água bruta, em ambos os períodos de inverno e verão. O critério de balneabilidade para estas mesmas águas apresentaram aspectos satisfatórios para o ponto A3 e A4 (ver pontos de análise) e impróprias para os pontos A6 e A8 (Res. CONAMA 274/2000). Assim, as águas tratadas revelaram focos de contaminação microbiológica em todos os pontos, observadas as delimitações da Portaria MS 2914/2011, pela presença de coliformes totais. As amostras de águas tratadas revelaram que nos núcleos habitacionais II e III (NHII-2 e NHIII-2) apontaram valores de Número Mais Provável (NMP) de coliformes totais e termotolerantes elevados, acreditando-se que tal contaminação esteja atribuída à má manutenção da rede hidráulica, e/ou higienização ineficiente. É importante informar que a média de chuvas no ano de 2012, período da pesquisa, foi abaixo do esperado, contribuindo para um decréscimo significativo em relação ao volume total em metros cúbicos (m³) do açude de São Gonçalo. Tal situação é preocupante, pois, a diminuição das águas é um indicador de eutrofização. Após análise, foi possível concluir que tais situações, como, por exemplo, o abastecimento e tratamento de água, destino dos dejetos e dos resíduos sólidos, refletem uma condição de prédisposição da população as doenças como também podem comprometer as atividades agroindustriais desenvolvidas no perímetro irrigado em estudo. / This paper proposed agribusiness activities correlate with human and environmental health, and the Irrigated Perimeter of São Gonçalo - PB, as a study. For this we analyzed the raw and treated water coming from said perimeter, through physical, chemical and microbiological parameters, such as increased under investigation. The research is characterized quantitative, qualitative and descriptive nature. Eight sampling were geocoded, and four points were raw water and treated water four. The collections were made in 2012, for six months, for April, May and June as period and reverse, October, November and December as the dry season. And he made a survey of the basic indicators of health and environmental conditions that directly influence human health and the ecosystem. The physico-chemical and microbiological outcomes were assessed based on the current legislation. Thus, it was found that both samples of raw water and treated in relation to physico-chemical properties, these remained within permitted limits (CONAMA Resolution 375/05 and MS Portaria No. 2914/11, respectively). The microbiological results found presence of coliforms, total and thermotolerant presence for raw water samples, in both winter and summer periods. The criteria for bathing waters showed satisfactory these same aspects for the A3 and A4 point (see point analysis) and unfit for A6 and A8 points (CONAMA Resolution 274/2000). Thus, the treated water showed foci of microbial contamination at all points, observing the boundaries of the MS 2914/2011, by the presence of total coliforms. Samples of treated water showed that the housing units II and III (and NHIII-2 NHII-2) showed values of more than Probable Number (MPN) of total coliforms and thermotolerant high, it is believed that such contamination is attributed to poor maintenance the hydraulic network, and / or inefficient cleaning. It is important to mention that the average rainfall in 2012, survey period, was lower than expected, contributing to a significant decrease in the total volume in cubic meters ( m³ ) Açude of São Gonçalo. This situation is worrying because, with the decrease of water promotes the process of eutrophication. After analysis of the indicators, it was concluded that such situations, for example, the supply and treatment of water, Sewage facilities and solid waste, reflect a pre-condition to the population as diseases can also compromise the agribusiness activities developed in the irrigated area under study.

<p>Current watershed-scale, nonpoint source (NPS) pollution models do not represent the processes and impacts of agricultural best management practices (BMP) on water quality with sufficient detail. To begin addressing this gap, a novel process-based, watershed-scale, water quality model (WEPP-WQ) was developed based on the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models. The proposed model was validated at both hillslope and watershed scales for runoff, sediment, and both soluble and particulate forms of nitrogen and phosphorus. WEPP-WQ is now one of only two models which simulates BMP impacts on water quality in ‘high’ detail, and it is the only one not based on USLE sediment predictions. Model validations indicated that particulate nutrient predictions were better than soluble nutrient predictions for both nitrogen and phosphorus. Predictions of uniform conditions outperformed nonuniform conditions, and calibrated model simulations performed better than uncalibrated model simulations. Applications of these kinds of models in real-world, historical simulations are often limited by a lack of field-scale agricultural management inputs. Therefore, a prototype tool was developed to derive management inputs for hydrologic models from remotely sensed imagery at field-scale resolution. At present, only predictions of crop, cover crop, and tillage practice inference are supported and were validated at annual and average annual time intervals based on data availability for the various management endpoints. Extraction model training and validation were substantially limited by relatively small field areas in the observed management dataset. Both of these efforts contribute to computational modeling research and applications pertaining to agricultural systems and their impacts on the environment.</p>