Call number: LD2668 .T4 1986 H64 / Master of Science / Civil Engineering

Bibliography: p. 474-514.

Bibliography: p. 474-514. / xli, 601 p. (some folded) : ill., maps (one col.) ; 30 cm. / Title page, contents and abstract only. The complete thesis in print form is available from the University Library. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Adelaide, 1995

Bibliography: p. 474-514. / xli, 601 p. (some folded) : ill., maps (one col.) ; 30 cm. / Title page, contents and abstract only. The complete thesis in print form is available from the University Library. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Adelaide, 1995

Balancing water demand and supply in South Africa involves high levels of uncertainty. The Department of Water and Sanitation (DWS) is responsible for making decisions to either increase water supply or decrease water demand so as to ensure that sufficient water is available, when and where it is needed. However, no retrospective analyses of such decisions have been found. One way to assess such decisions is to evaluate the associated costs and benefits thereof. Therefore the primary aim of this study is to evaluate the costs and benefits of selected water supply options, and of the decision-making associated with those options. In order to achieve this purpose, four case studies were analysed within a mixed-methods research paradigm, which used both quantitative and qualitative methods, including unit reference value (URV) analysis, inter- and intra-case analysis and content analysis to examine the success of the decisions made. The four case studies were conducted on the Inyaka, Nandoni, Berg and De Hoop dams and their catchments. Firstly, estimated and actual project costs were compared using unit reference analysis and inter-case analyses. Secondly, the reduction of mean annual runoff (MAR) caused by invasive alien plants (IAPs) and the cost of clearing them in the dam catchments were evaluated using inter-case analyses. Information thus gathered was used together with data from DWS documentation and the results of interviews with ten key specialists, to analyse the decision-making process that led to the decision to build De Hoop Dam (the most recent case study). The rational decision-making model (RDMM) was used as a framework within which to analyse and evaluate this decision-making process. This study has also demonstrated how the RDMM can be used to assess decision-making associated with water supply development. The results of this study show that there is considerable variation of estimated costs (at the time that the decision to build the dam was taken) in relation to the actual costs of building the dams and that Ministers were not put in a position to understand the full long-term costs or the opportunity costs of the proposed dams. Furthermore, the most recent IAP data (2008) shows that the impact on water security by IAPs could not offset the water security resulting from building each of the four dams. However, if IAP management is not continued in these catchments, the projected reduction of MAR by IAPs will compromise water security within 45 years. Given the almost exponential spread and densification of IAPs, together with their long-term impact on MAR and increased costs of controlling them, it is clear that IAP management should have been factored into water supply decision-making from the outset. In the analysis of the decision to build the De Hoop Dam, the results show that while the decision-making process that culminated in the decision to build the dam did not follow the steps of the RDMM, DWS appears to have followed a somewhat similar approach. It was found that while there was a need for the provision of additional water in the Olifants catchment, this need was overstated and the resulting overestimation caused the scale and size of the dam to be larger than it could and probably should have been. Additionally, it appears that DWS‘s decision to build the De Hoop Dam themselves, rather than having it built by the private sector, may have been less than optimal. It is recommended that, in future decision-making, DWS needs to incorporate multiple alternative options into the same solution, and to ensure that decision-makers are put into a position to make informed decisions, including adequate consideration of externalities. Furthermore, DWS needs to employ decision-making models such as the RDMM to facilitate retrospective analyses to improve their institutional knowledge. Keywords: water resources management, dams, invasive alien plants, decision-making, unit reference values, rational decision-making model.

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Concerns about the sufficiency of freshwater supplies and the impact of water shortages have placed sustainable water management on the global agenda. This is particularly relevant in South Africa, a country with precipitation rates well below the global average and water resources that have become highly polluted. The scarcity of water for consumption use and of unpolluted water bodies as recreational and environmental good highlights the need for an economic analysis of these issues. This dissertation investigates some economic aspects of water management in the South African context in two distinctive parts. Part One (Chapters 2 to 5) aims to provide an understanding of urban water demand and analyses water pricing as demand management tool. Part Two (Chapters 6 and 7) analyses the values people attach to water resources for recreational and environmental purposes. Quantitative methodological approaches are predominantly used to inform an economic perspective on water demand management. The extent of water scarcity is discussed in Chapter Two. South Africa is approaching physical water scarcity, but many poor households do not yet have access to water and basic sanitation facilities, i.e. there is also economic water scarcity. Given this background, Chapter Three focuses on water demand management as part of an integrated water management approach. The role of water prices is discussed, in particular the Increasing Block Tariff (IBT) structure which is predominantly used in South Africa. Chapter Four estimates the price elasticity of demand for water using household water consumption records obtained from the City of Cape Town (CCT). A distinctive feature of this case study is a survey undertaken to collect household information on demographic and water-use characteristics, as water databases are severely lacking in South Africa. The results show water demand to be mostly price inelastic, which concurs with findings from international empirical literature. Furthermore, higher-income households are found to be more sensitive to price changes, thus some reduction in water consumption can be achieved by increasing marginal prices at the upper end of the IBT structure. Chapter Five analyses the IBT structure as a redistributive tool. Particular attention is given to the Free Basic Water policy of South Africa, which allows each household to receive six kilolitres of water free per month. Empirical modelling indicates that the IBT structure in its current form holds limited benefits for the poor, given the state of service delivery in South Africa: the lack of access to the water network prevents the poorest households from being the recipients of the cross-subsidisation occurring in an IBT structure. Part Two studies urban water resources as recreational and environmental goods. The literature review of environmental valuation techniques in Chapter Six places particular emphasis on the Contingent Valuation Method. This method is applied in Chapter Seven, where the value of improving the environmental quality of a freshwater urban lake is analysed in a middle- to low-income urban area. Another survey was undertaken specifically for this purpose of gauging the willingness to pay for improved recreational facilities and water quality of Zeekoevlei. The results show that low-income households do attach value to urban environmental goods, a result which adds to our knowledge of willingness to pay for environmental goods in developing countries. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Besorgdheid oor die toereikenheid van varswaterbronne en die impak van watertekorte het volhoubare waterbestuur op die wêreldagenda geplaas. Dit is veral relevant vir Suid- Afrika, 'n land met neerslagkoerse ver onder die wêreld gemiddelde en waterbronne wat hoogs besoedeld geword het. Die skaarsheid van water vir verbruik en van onbesoedelde waterbronne as ontspannings- en omgewingsproduk, beklemtoon die noodsaaklikheid vir 'n ekonomiese analise van hierdie kwessies. Hierdie proefskrif ondersoek sekere ekonomiese aspekte van waterbestuur in die Suid-Afrikaanse konteks, in twee dele. Deel Een (Hoofstukke Twee tot Vyf) beoog om insig te verskaf oor die stedelike vraag na water en analiseer die prys van water as 'n vraagbestuursmaatstaf. Deel Twee (Hoofstukke Ses en Sewe) ontleed die waarde wat mense heg aan waterbronne vir ontspannings- en omgewingsdoeleindes. Kwantitatiewe metodologiese benaderinge word hoofsaaklik gebruik om 'n ekonomiese perspektief op watervraag bestuur toe te lig. Die omvang van waterskaarsheid in Suid-Afrika word in Hoofstuk Twee bespreek. Hierdie hoofstuk dui aan dat Suid-Afrika besig is om fisiese waterskaarste te bereik, maar die land het ook baie arm huishoudings wat nog nie toegang tot water en basiese sanitasiefasiliteite het nie, dw.s. wat daar is ook ekonomiese waterskaarsheid. Gegewe hierdie agtergrond, fokus Hoofstuk Drie op watervraagbestuur, as deel van 'n geïntegreerde waterbestuursbenadering. Die rol van waterpryse word bespreek, veral die Stygende-Blok-Tarief (SBT) struktuur wat grotendeels in Suid-Afrika gebruik word. Hoofstuk Vier bepaal die pryselastisiteit van vraag vir water met behulp van huishoudelike waterverbruiksdata, verkry vanaf die Stad Kaapstad. 'n Kenmerkende eienskap van hierdie gevallestudie is die ingesamelde huishoudelike inligting oor demografiese en waterverbruik-eienskappe, aangesien daar ‘n groot tekort aan water-databasisse in Suid- Afrika is. Die uitslae toon dat watervraag meestal prysonelasties is, wat ooreenstem met bevindinge van ander empiriese literatuur. Verder word gevind dat hoё-inkomste huishoudings meer sensitief is vir prysveranderinge. Dus sal 'n afname in waterverbruik bewerkstellig kan word deur marginale pryse aan die hoёr kant van die SBT struktuur te verhoog. Hoofstuk Vyf ondersoek die SBT struktuur as 'n effektiewe herverdelingsmaatstaf. Spesifieke aandag word aan die Gratis Basiese Water-beleid van Suid-Afrika geskenk, wat voorsiening maak dat elke huishouding ses kiloliter water per maand verniet ontvang. Die bevindinge van empiriese modellering is dat die SBT struktuur, soos dit tans in Suid-Afrika toegepas word, beperkte voordele vir die armes inhou, gegewe die huidige stand van watervoorsiening in Suid-Afrika. As gevolg van die agterstand met betrekking tot toegang tot water, ontvang die heel armes nie die voordele van kruissubsidiёring wat plaasvind onder 'n SBT struktuur nie. Deel Twee bestudeer stedelike waterbronne as ontspannings- en omgewingsprodukte. Hoofstuk Ses verskaf 'n literatuur oorsig oor omgewingswaardasie tegnieke, met 'n spesieke fokus op die Kontingente Waardasie-metode. Hierdie metode word in Hoofstuk Sewe toegepas, waar die waarde van verbeteringe in die omgewingskwaliteit van 'n varswatermeer in 'n middel- tot lae-komste stedelike gebied ondersoek word. Nog 'n opname is gedoen met die doel om die bereidwilligheid om te betaal vir verbeterde ontspanningsfasiliteite en die waterkwaliteit van Zeekoevlei te meet. Die bevindinge toon dat lae-inkomste huishoudings wel waarde heg aan stedelike omgewingsprodukte.