Thesis (M.A.)--Miami University, Dept. of Geography, 2008. / Title from first page of PDF document. Includes bibliographical references (p.95-104).

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Oregon State University, 2008. / Printout. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 99-102). Also available on the World Wide Web.

Water resource management has become a pertinent issue of global environmental concern in response to the conditions of a growing global population, increasing development and a limited freshwater supply. It is against the backdrop of such conditions that effective water resource management has gained popularity in seeking to ensure that the needs of the growing population will be met and secured for future generations. The notion of integrated water resource management (IWRM) is a perspective on water resource management that has evolved out of the global opinion that social and ecological systems are linked and therefore cannot be managed separately. The department of water affairs (DWA) in South Africa highlights the importance of approaching management of water resources from a catchment perspective which forms the basis for a particular integrated approach to management called integrated catchment management (ICM). ICM recognizes the catchment as the correct administrative unit for management. It integrates water resources and the land that forms the catchment area in planning and management. Researchers have described the implementation of ICM as being complicated and difficult. This is no exception to South Africa. Principles of ICM have received widespread prominence in South Africa as they have been incorporated into national water policy. Actual implementation however is still in its infancy. The study is therefore a case study of ICM with respect to factors influencing implementation amongst different stakeholders. The study aims to explore the theme of implementation of ICM within the context of the Gamtoos River Catchment with a view toward identifying and addressing challenges that may be more broadly applicable. The study adopts an inductive, exploratory approach to the connection between theory and practice. A systems-based framework characterized by sequential steps similar to that employed in a case study conducted by Bellamy et al. (2001) in Queensland Australia is used to facilitate the evaluation of ICM in the Gamtoos River Catchment. The evaluation is achieved through a three step process of exploration in the current study. Triangulation is applied to the choice of methods of analysis which involves the use of a global analysis method, the use of learning scenarios and a grounded theory method. Findings reveal seven core themes which help to provide a detailed, contextual understanding relating to the status quo for ICM in the catchment. Results from a grounded theory analysis summarized the main challenges to implementation into five broad categories. Based on this analysis method and the application of the three learning scenarios for the Gamtoos River Catchment, the extent to which these challenges exist was discovered. The state of ICM in the catchment was classified as falling within a condition of a level of success being achieved with room for improvement to a condition of optimal ICM. The study concludes that based on the context of ICM being an example of a Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS), this state of ICM in the Gamtoos River Catchment is subject to change. This therefore necessitates the consideration of approaches to implementation that are adaptive to change. Findings may serve to inform decision making on how ICM can be effectively implemented elsewhere in a South African context.

Water use planning today necessitates an integrated approach that includes sustainability considerations. We rely upon our water resources to satisfy a lengthy list of needs yet we often mistreat this irreplaceable, vital resource. Members of society are acknowledging the situation and are increasingly expressing their interest in being involved in processes to address these issues. It is the planner's responsibility to respond with a method that is capable of involving the public in complex planning issues such water use planning. The identification and application of a suitable methodology can commence with the articulation of indicators of success. By being conscious of desired goals, the process necessary for their attainment is more readily identified. A study of existing literature indicates empowerment, fairness, trust and efficiency are regular indicators of success. Communicative facilitation, the product of unifying the fundamentals of communicative planning and effective facilitation, is a means of working toward the realization of these success indicators. These process components are both complemented and promoted through a collaborative effort. Both the process methodology and its application influence the likelihood of achieving the identified process success indicators. Analysis of a case study, in this instance the Coquitlam Buntzen Water Use Planning process, allows extrication of recommendations and caveats that are applicable not only to collaborative water use planning but also to complex planning processes in general. • A process should focus on reaching the best agreement possible. Allowing a range of levels of agreement while documenting points of disagreement is recommended. • A process's potential to contribute to the development of a positive precedent should be recognized. Every effort should be invested to maximize opportunities to improve levels of trust and perceptions of fairness since current processes affect future efforts. • Process facilitators should be adept in the role of facilitator, analyst, mediator and negotiator while practicing the principles of communicative planning. • It is difficult for a process to manage its schedule and budget to the satisfaction of all participants; however, the evaluation of efficiency is critical to assessment of overall process success. • To avoid confusion and frustration, it should be clearly established prior to process commencement whether a process involves the public generally, stakeholders or representatives. • Scope should be as broadly defined as possible. Although the level of complexity can be expected to increase, the benefits of an integrated approach as well as the frustrations associated with scope limitation support its expansion. Once boundaries are set, they should be explicitly articulated. As the world becomes in increasingly complex place, the planner is faced with the task of facilitating efforts for interests to work together to make good decisions through quality processes.

Water use planning today necessitates an integrated approach that includes sustainability considerations. We rely upon our water resources to satisfy a lengthy list of needs yet we often mistreat this irreplaceable, vital resource. Members of society are acknowledging the situation and are increasingly expressing their interest in being involved in processes to address these issues. It is the planner's responsibility to respond with a method that is capable of involving the public in complex planning issues such water use planning. The identification and application of a suitable methodology can commence with the articulation of indicators of success. By being conscious of desired goals, the process necessary for their attainment is more readily identified. A study of existing literature indicates empowerment, fairness, trust and efficiency are regular indicators of success. Communicative facilitation, the product of unifying the fundamentals of communicative planning and effective facilitation, is a means of working toward the realization of these success indicators. These process components are both complemented and promoted through a collaborative effort. Both the process methodology and its application influence the likelihood of achieving the identified process success indicators. Analysis of a case study, in this instance the Coquitlam Buntzen Water Use Planning process, allows extrication of recommendations and caveats that are applicable not only to collaborative water use planning but also to complex planning processes in general. • A process should focus on reaching the best agreement possible. Allowing a range of levels of agreement while documenting points of disagreement is recommended. • A process's potential to contribute to the development of a positive precedent should be recognized. Every effort should be invested to maximize opportunities to improve levels of trust and perceptions of fairness since current processes affect future efforts. • Process facilitators should be adept in the role of facilitator, analyst, mediator and negotiator while practicing the principles of communicative planning. • It is difficult for a process to manage its schedule and budget to the satisfaction of all participants; however, the evaluation of efficiency is critical to assessment of overall process success. • To avoid confusion and frustration, it should be clearly established prior to process commencement whether a process involves the public generally, stakeholders or representatives. • Scope should be as broadly defined as possible. Although the level of complexity can be expected to increase, the benefits of an integrated approach as well as the frustrations associated with scope limitation support its expansion. Once boundaries are set, they should be explicitly articulated. As the world becomes in increasingly complex place, the planner is faced with the task of facilitating efforts for interests to work together to make good decisions through quality processes. / Applied Science, Faculty of / Community and Regional Planning (SCARP), School of / Graduate

Thesis (M.ScEng.)--Stellenbosch University, 2001. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Historically, urban waterresources have too often been managed without recognition that the flow in a river integrates many landscape and biological features. This has often resulted in the elimination of natural processes and their replacement by man-made streamlined structures with the effects of increased urbanisation being primarily addressed from an engineering and economics point of view to the detriment of environmental and social issues. Catchment Management, as legislated in the Water Act, No. 36 of 1998, is a management approach to address the negative consequences of an urban stormwater design philosophy restricted to flood restriction. It is a systems approach that integrates engineering and scientific skills, socio-economic concerns, and environmental constraints within a new multidisciplinary decision-making process that recognises the different components of the hydrological and aquatic cycles are linked, and each component is affected by changes in every other component. In order to make effective management decisions, catchment managers require tools to provide reliable information about the performance of alternative arrangements of stormwater management facilities and to quantify the effects of possible management decisions on the water environment. A deterministic hydrological model is such a tool, which provides the link between the conceptual understanding of the physical catchment characteristics and the empirical quantification of the hydrological, water quality and ecological response. In order to provide effective computer based decision support, the hydrological model must be part of an integrated software application in which a collection of data manipulation, analysis, modelling and interpretation tools, including GIS, can be efficiently used together to manage a large potion of the overall decision process. This decision support system must have a simple and intuitive user interface able to produce easily interpreted output. It must have powerful graphical presentation capabilities promoting effective communication and be designed to solve ill-structured problems by flexibly combining statistical analysis, models and data. The Great Lotus River canal, situated on the Cape Flats, Cape Town, has been designed and controlled through extensive canalisation and the construction of detention pond facilities to avoid the flooding of urban areas of the catchment. This approach has resulted in these channels becoming stormwater drains, transporting waste and nutrients in dissolved and particulate forms, and reducing their assimilatory capacity for water quality improvement. In order to investigate the use of hydrological modelling in decision support for Catchment Management, the semi-distributed, physically based model, SWMM, was applied to the Great Lotus River canal. SWMM consists of a number of independent modules allowing the hydrological and hydraulic simulations of urban catchments and their conveyance networks on an event or continuous basis. In order to ease the application of the Fortran based SWMM model, the GUl, PCSWMM98, was developed by Computational Hydraulics Inc (CH!). This provides decision support for SWMM through large array of tools for file management, data file creation, output visualisation and interpretation, model calibration and error analysis and storm dynamic analysis thus easing any simulations with SWMM. In addition, PCSWMM was developed with a GIS functionality for graphically creating, editing and/or querying SWMM model entities and attributes, displaying these SWMM layers with background layers and dynamic model results, and exporting data to SWMM input files thus providing an interface between a GIS and SWMM. In terms of Catchment Management, the above DSS can be used effectively to assist decisionmaking. This is to address tensions between the fundamental catchment management considerations of physical development, social considerations and maintaining ecological sustainability. It is at the stages of Assessment and Planning that the model can play the most significant role in providing decision support to the Catchment Management process. Assessment in the Catchment Management process refers to the collection, storage, modelling and interpretation of catchment information. It is in this quantification, interpretation and assessment of catchment information that a hydrological model contributes to an increase in knowledge in the Catchment Management process. In identifying and quantifying, at a sufficient temporal and spatial scale, the dominant cause and effect relationships in the urban physical environment, a hydrological model is able to highlight the main contributing factors to an issue. This is used in the Planning stage of the Catchment Management process and when combining these contributing factors with assessments of the socio-economic and administrative environments, enables the prioritisation of the principal issues requiring attention in a Catchment Management Strategy. It is possible to link the multiple decision-making requirements of Catchment Management with the abilities of a hydrological model to provide information on these requirements in a conceptual framework. This framework consists of the fundamental catchment considerations of Physical Development, Environmental Management and Social Development and resolves these considerations into the various management issues associated with each consideration ~s well as its management solution. The management solutions are linked to the model through formulating the solution in terms of the model parameters and perturbing the affected parameters in ways to simulate the management solution. This results in model output and graphical interpretation of the effects of the suggested management solution. A comparison between the simulated effects of each management solution allows the Catchment Management body to identify optimal management solutions for the various management Issues. The present model of the Great Lotus River catchment is sufficient to simulate the overland and subsurface flows from individual parts of the catchment and to route these flows and associated pollutant loadings to the catchment outlet. At its present level of complexity, the finely discretised model subcatchment and conveyance network provides decision support for Catchment Management through the simulation, at a pre-feasibility stage, of various Catchment Management issues and their proposed solutions. Given more detailed canal and drainage network dimensions and water quality data, it is possible for the model to incorporate hydraulic calculation routines to assess the implications of alternative river rehabilitation techniques and waste management strategies. This would allow greater capability in assessing the role of the various BMPs in ameliorating stormwater impacts and pollutant loading. In addition, a detailed level survey of the stormwater pipe and canal network could result in hydrological modelling being utilised to identify critical areas where stormwater upgrading would be necessary. In order to facilitate future complex, finely discretised catchment hydrological models, it is imperative that complete and detailed drainage patterns and stormwater network characteristics are available. In addition, to minimise model generation costs and time of model setup, this spatially representative data must be captured in a GIS for rapid inclusion into the model. Furthermore, complete spatially representative precipitation datasets are necessary to ensure that model error is reduced. These two issues of available spatial data and comprehensive precipitation records are crucial for the generated models to function as effective decision support systems for Catchment Management. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Histories is stedelike waterbronne te dikwels bestuur sonder inagneming dat die vloei van die rivier baie landskap- en biologiese kenmerke insluit. Dit het dikwels daartoe gelei dat natuurlike prosesse uitgeskakel is en vervang is deur mensgemaakte, stroombelynde strukture waarvan die effek van toenemende verstedeliking hoofsaaklik aangespreek word vanuit 'n ingenieurs- en ekonomiese oogpunt tot nadeel van omgewings- en sosiale kwessies. Opvangsgebiedsbestuur, soos bepaal deur die Waterwet, Wet 36 van 1998, is 'n bestuursbenadering om die negatiewe gevolge van 'n stedelike stormwaterontwerpfilosofie wat beperk is tot vloedbeperking aan te spreek. Dit is 'n stelselbenadering wat ingenieurs- en wetenskaplike vaardighede, sosio-ekonomiese probleme en omgewingsbeperkings integreer in 'n nuwe multidissiplinêre besluitnemingsproses wat erkenning daaraan gee dat die verskillende komponente van die hidrologiese en watersiklusse verbind is, en elke komponent beïnvloed word deur veranderings in elke ander komponent. Om doeltreffende bestuursbesluite te neem, benodig opvangsgebiedsbestuur die hulpmiddels om betroubare inligting oor die prestasie van alternatiewe moontlikhede VIr stormwaterbestuurfasiliteite en om die effek van moontlike bestuursbesluite op die wateromgewing te kwantifiseer. 'n Deterministiese hidrologiese model is so 'n hulpmiddel wat die skakel daarstel tussen die konseptueie begrip van die fisiese opvangsgebiedskenmerke en die empiriese kwantifisering van die water-, waterkwaliteit- en ekologiese reaksie. Om doeltreffende rekenaarbesluitnemingsteun te verskaf, moet die hidrologiese model deel wees van 'n geïntegreerde sagteware-aanwending waarin 'n versameling datamanipulasie-, analise-, modellerings- en interpreteringshulpmiddels, insluitend GIS, doeltreffend saam gebruik kan word om 'n groot deel van die algehele besluitnemingsproses te bestuur. Hierdie besluitnemingsteunstelsel moet 'n eenvoudige en intuïtiewe gebruikersvlak hê wat in staat is om maklik interpreteerbare uitsette te lewer. Dit moet goeie grafiese voorleggingsvermoëns hê wat doeltreffende kommunikasie vergemaklik en ontwerp wees om swak gestruktureerde probleme deur die buigsame samevoeging van statistiese analise, modelle en data op te los. Die Groot Lotusrivierkanaal op die Kaapse Vlakte, Kaapstad is ontwerp en word beheer deur uitgebreide kanalisasie en die konstruksie van detensiedamfasiliteite om die oorstroming van stedelike opvangsgebiede te vermy. Hierdie benadering het daartoe gelei dat hierdie kanale stormwaterafvoerpype geword het wat afval en nutriënte in opgelosde en partikelvorm vervoer en hulle assimilasievermoë vir die verbetering van waterkwaliteit verminder. Om die gebruik van hidrologiese modelle in besluitnemingsteun vir Opvangsgebiedsbestuur te ondersoek, is die semi-verspreide, fisiesgebaseerde model, SWMM, op die Groot Lotusrivierkanaal toegepas. SWMM bestaan uit 'n aantalonafhanklike modules wat die hidrologiese en hidroulika simulasies van stedelike opvangsgebiede en hulle vervoemetwerke per geleentheid of deurlopend monitor. Om die aanwending van die Fortran gebaseerde SWMM model te vergemaklik is die GUl, PCSWMM98 deur Computational Hydraulics Inc (CHD ontwikkel. Dit verskaf besluitnemingsteun vir SWMM deur 'n groot aantal hulpmiddels vir lêerbestuur, die skep van datalêers, uitsetvisualisering en interpretasie, modelkalibrasie, foutanalise en stormdinamikaanalise om enige simulasies met SWMM te vergemaklik. Daarby is PCSWMM ontwikkel met 'n GIS funksionaliteit vir die grafiese daarstelling, redigering en/of navraagfunksie van SWMM model entiteite en kenmerke, wat hierdie SWMM vlakke met agtergrondvlakke en dinamiese modelresultate vertoon en data in SWMM inset1êers plaas en op daardie manier 'n koppelvlak tussen 'n GIS en SWMM verskaf. Volgens Opvangsgebiedsbestuur kan bogenoemde DSS doeltreffend gebruik word in besluitneming. Dit IS om die spanning tussen fundamentele opvangsgebiedsbestuursoorwegings van fisiese ontwikkeling, sosiale oorwegings en ekologiese volhoubaarheid aan te spreek. Dis in die stadiums van Waardebepaling en Beplanning wat die model die belangrikste rol kan vervul in die verskaffing van besluitnemingsteun vir die Opvangsgebiedsbestuursproses. Waardebepaling in die Opvangsgebiedbestuursproses verwys na die versameling, berging, modellering en interpretasie van opvangsgebiedsinligting. Deur hierdie kwantifisering, interpretasie en waardebepaling van opvangsgebiedsinligting dra 'n hidrologiese model by tot 'n verhoging in kennis in die Opvangsgebiedsbestuur. Deur die identifisering en kwantifisering, op 'n ruim genoeg tydelike en ruimtelike skaal, van die dominante oorsaak en gevolg verhoudings in die stedelike fisiese omgewing, kan die hidrologiese model die hoof bydraende faktore uitlig. Dit word gebruik in die Beplanningsfase van die Opvangsgebiedproses en wanneer hierdie bydraende faktore by die waardebepaling van die sosio-ekonomiese en administratiewe omgewings saamgevoeg word, maak dit moontlik om die belangrike kwessies wat aandag behoort te kry in 'n Opvangsgebiedsbestuurstrategie in volgorde van voorrang te plaas. Dit is moontlik om die verskeidenheid besluitnemingsvereistes van Opvangsgebiedsbestuur met die vermoëns van 'n hidrologiese model te koppel om inligting oor hierdie vereistes in 'n konseptuele raamwerk te verskaf. Die raamwerk bestaan uit die fundamentele opvangsgebiedsoorwegings van Fisiese Ontwikkeling, Omgewingsbestuur en Sosiale Ontwikkeling en los hierdie oorwegings op in die verskillende bestuursaangeleenthede wat met elke oorweging en die bestuuroplossing geassosieer word. Die bestuursoplossings word aan die model gekoppel deur die formulering van die oplossing volgens die modelparameters en versteuring van die relevante parameters op sekere manier om die bestuursoplossing te simuleer. Dit lei tot modeluitset en grafiese interpretasie van die effek van die voorgestelde bestuursoplossing. 'n Vergelyking tussen die gesimuleerde effek van elke bestuursoplossing laat die Opvangsgebiedsbestuursliggaam toe om die optimale bestuursoplossings vir die verskeie bestuursaangeleenthede te identifiseer. Die huidige model van die Groot Lotusrivieropvang is genoegsaam om die bo- en ondergrondse vloei vanaf individuele dele van die opvangsgebied te simuleer en om die watervloei en geassosieerde besoedelstofladings na die opvangsgebiedsuitlaatplek te lei. Op sy huidige vlak van kompleksiteit verskaf die fyn gediskretiseerde model subopvangsgebied en vervoernetwerk besluitnemingsteun aan Opvangsgebiedsbestuur deur die simulasie, teen 'n voor-lewensvatbaarheidstudie, van verskeie opvangsgebiedsbestuurkwessies en die voorgestelde oplossings. Indien meer gedetailleerde kanaal- en dreineringsnetwerkdimensies- en waterkwaliteitdata ingevoer word, is dit moontlik vir die model om hidroulikaberekeningsroetines te inkorporeer om die implikasies van alternatiewe rivierrehabilitasietegnieke en afvalbestuurstrategieë te beoordeel. Dit sou die vermoë verbeter om die waarde van die verskeie BMPs te bepaal om die impak van stormwater en besoedelstoflading te versag. Daarby kan 'n gedetailleerde vlakopname van die stormwaterpyp en -kanaalnetwerk daartoe lei dat hidrologiese modelle gebruik kan word om kritieke areas te identifiseer waar stormwateropgradering nodig is. Om toekomstige komplekse, gediskretiseerde opvangsgebiedshidrologiese modelle te verbeter, is dit noodsaaklik dat volledige en gedetailleerde dreineringspatrone en stormwaternetwerkkenmerke beskikbaar is. Om die model-ontwikkelingskoste en tyd bestee aan die opstel van 'n model te minimiseer, moet hierdie ruimtelik verteenwoordigende data ingelees word in 'n GIS vir vinnige insluiting in die model. Daarbenewens is volledige, ruimtelik verteenwoordigende presipitasie datastelle nodig om te verseker dat modelfoute verminder word. Hierdie twee kwessies van beskikbare ruimtelike data en omvattende presipitasierekords is van die uiterste belang sodat die gegenereerde modelle as doeltreffende besluitnemingsteun vir Opvangsgebiedsbestuur kan funksioneer.

Pervasive social and ecological water crises in Mexico remain, despite over two decades of legal and institutional backing for Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) as a policy tenet. In this article we apply a socialshed analysis to uncover and understand the geographical and jurisdictional forces influencing the social construction and simultaneous fragmentation of the San Miguel Watershed (SMW) in the state of Sonora, in Mexico's water-scarcity bulls-eye. Specific insights derived from an empirical analysis include that water management (WM) is socially embedded in dense networks of family and friends, farmers and ranchers, citizens and local government - all to varying degrees sharing information about local water crises. Irrigation water user representatives (WUR) are connected across communities and within their own municipalities, but interwatershed social links with other WUR are virtually nonexistent, despite high levels of awareness of crossmunicipality WM problems. Implementation of IWRM as a federal policy by a single agency and the creation of basin councils and subsidiary technical committees for groundwater management have not been sufficient for technical - much less social - integration at the watershed level. This study shows that the SMW socialshed remains fragmented by local jurisdictions; without coordinated agency-jurisdiction-local action fomenting social connections, a socialshed will not emerge.

The Ayuquila River watershed is important to western Mexico because of its biodiversity, physiography, fisheries resources, and water production. However, human activities are continuingly affecting natural resources within the basin. Soil erosion, as result of land use change, agriculture in steep land, extensive grazing activities and forest fires; and water diversion and pollution of the Ayuquila River are two relevant issues that have affected the natural resources of this watershed. This river system plays an important role in wildlife conservation, containing 29 fish species, of which 12 are found inside the BRSM. The River also contains nine species of crustacean, one that is endemic to Jalisco State. The otter (Lontra longicaudis), a species threatened within the BRSM, is found in the Ayuquila- Armeria River watershed. This research focused on the reduction of river pollution and the reduction of negative impacts of water pollution delivered to those communities, some of the poorest in the state of Jalisco, that live downstream of the valley. This research was also designed as a way to increase the knowledge of soil erosion processes and water quantity and quality in tropical environments and to test and develop new tools that might facilitate parameter estimation and predictive capabilities within the Ayuquila River watershed. Research efforts in this dissertation had focused on the development of new scientific information about point and nonpoint-source pollution within the Ayuquila River based on three main research studies, the investigation into trail erosion, the production of an erosion sensitive map, and documenting and modeling water quantity and quality in the Ayuquila Watershed. Major concerns that this research seeks to contribute a solution, is to reduce negative impacts on public health, degradation in fisheries resources as source of local food supply, domestic water supplies for those communities, some of the poorest in the state of Jalisco, that live downstream the valley and that do not receive any benefit from the economic development of the Autlan- El Grullo Valley. Results from the commercial trail study, with sediment productions close to 100 ton/ha/yr, showed the importance of the application of conservation practices to reduce the potential erosion from commercial trails in my study area and potentially other tropical forests of Latin-American. The WEPP model used to predict soil erosion in the tropical mountain environments of Mexico was shown to be an adequate tool even with WEPP's limitations for tropical soil environments. WEPP effectively contributed to the estimation of sediment plume production on trails, detected vegetation type differences in runoff and soil erosion, predicted the amount of rainfall as runoff well, and adequately developed soil erosion sensitive maps. Water diversion and pollution within the Ayuquila River are important sources of disturbance in the ecological conditions of riparian ecosystems. These two impacts cause a potential break in the ecological continuity of the Ayuquila River. Water quantity and quality modeling will provide opportunities for discussion and analysis of alternatives to water management and possible impacts to the river.

This thesis presents an approach for generating long synthetic sequences of single-site daily rainfall which can incorporate low-frequency features such as drought, while still accurately representing the day-to-day variations in rainfall. The approach is implemented in a two-stage process. The first stage is to generate the entire sequence of rainfall occurrence (i.e. whether each day is dry or wet). The second stage is to generate the rainfall amount on all wet days in the sequence. The models used in both stages are nonparametric (they make minimal general assumptions rather than specific assumptions about the distributional and dependence characteristics of the variables involved), and ensure an appropriate representation of the seasonal variations in rainfall. A key aspect in formulation of the models is selection of the predictor variables used to represent the historical features of the rainfall record. Methods for selection of the predictors are presented here. The approach is applied to daily rainfall from Sydney and Melbourne. The models that are developed use daily-level, seasonal-level, annual-level, and multi-year predictors for rainfall occurrence, and daily-level and annual-level predictors for rainfall amount. The resulting generated sequences provide a better representation of the variability associated with droughts and sustained wet periods than was previously possible. These sequences will be useful in catchment water management studies as a tool for exploring the potential response of catchments to possible future rainfall.

[No Abstract]