Les variations multidécennales et saisonnières de la Mousson Ouest-Africaine (MOA) au cours des deux derniers millénaires dans la région sahélienne sont peu documentées en raison du manque d'archives paléoclimatiques. Pour cela, on se propose dans ce travail de thèse d'explorer une nouvelle archive paléoclimatique basée sur l'étude sclérochronologique des coquilles du mollusque bivalve Anadara senilis dans des amas coquilliers fossiles afin de reconstituer les variations hydrologiques multidécennales et saisonnières dans le Delta du Saloum au Sénégal de 460 à 1090 A.D. L'hydrologie de cet estuaire hypersalin est très sensible aux variations de la MOA. Les variations hydrologiques passées sont reconstituées à travers des analyses isotopiques (δ18O, δ13C) des coquilles modernes et des coquilles fossiles dans le delta. Le signal isotopique saisonnier de ces coquilles retrace fidèlement les variations hydrologiques liées au régime de la mousson. Nos résultats montrent que ces variations isotopiques, associées aux stries de croissance dont la périodicité est connue, permettent de reconstituer les durées des saisons avec une précision de 25 jours, une précision jamais atteinte dans les études paléoclimatiques antérieures dans la région sahélienne. Les variations hydrologiques multidécennales sont reconstituées à travers la composition isotopique des coquilles fossiles prélevées dans un amas coquillier massif (Dioron Boumak) dont le taux d'accumulation est très important. Les coquilles fossiles prélevées dans cet amas présentent des valeurs isotopiques moyennes en δ18O plus négatives de 1.4 ‰ par rapport à leurs analogues modernes. Ceci est une indication que les conditions hydrologiques étaient plus douces qu'aujourd'hui dans le Saloum qui n'était pas hypersalin à cette époque. Le bilan Précipitation-Evaporation était par conséquent plus positif en réponse à des pluies plus intenses et/ou plus étalées dans le temps de 460 à 1090 A.D. Il semblerait que les pluies hivernales et printanières, caractéristiques de la frange littorale sénégalo-mauritanienne, plutôt rares et insignifiantes de nos jours se produisaient plus fréquemment pendant cette période. La jonction entre ces pluies et les pluies de mousson aurait favorisé l'établissement de saisons des pluies beaucoup plus longues (~5 mois environ au lieu de 3 aujourd'hui) et une augmentation du bilan Précipitation-Evaporation. Cette étude met en lumière le potentiel considérable d'A. senilis comme archive paléoclimatique à haute résolution de la variabilité des précipitation dans la région sénégalaise. Elle montre également l'importance de la saisonnalité des précipitations dans les cycles hydrologiques passés dans cette région qui doit être prise en compte dans les études paléoclimatiques futures. / The multidecadal and seasonal variations of the West African Monsoon (WAM) in the last two millennia remain poorly documented in the Sahel region because paleoclimate archives are lacking. For this, we propose in this PhD thesis a sclerochronological study of the mollusk bivalve Anadara senilis from massive shell middens to reconstruct multidecadal and seasonal variations of hydrological conditions in the Saloum Delta (Senegal) between AD 460 and 1090. Hydrological conditions in this hypersaline estuary are highly sensitive to the WAM variations.Past hydrological variations are reconstructed by using isotopic composition (δ18O, δ13C) of modern and fossil shells in this Delta. The shells' seasonal isotopic signals reflect faithfully hydrological variations, linked to monsoonal regime. Our results show that the variations of these seasonal isotopic signals, associated to shell growth patterns with known periodicities allow the reconstruction of season durations with a precision of 25 days, a precision that has never been achieved in paleoclimate studies in the Sahel region.Multidecadal variations of hydrological conditions are reconstructed by using isotopic composition of fossil shells collected in the massive shell middens (Dioron Boumak), characterized by high accumulation rate. The averaged δ18O value of fossil shells was more negative by 1.4‰ compared to modern shells' isotopic signature. This result indicates fresher mean conditions in the Saloum Delta that was likely not hypersaline as it is today. The precipitation-evaporation budget was thus more positive in response to a more intense and/or longer rainfall season during from AD 460 to 1090. We propose that winter and early spring rainfall events, which are observed very occasionally today, were occurring frequently during this period. These rains restricted to the western Sahelian coast and followed by the monsoon would have increased the total duration of the rainy season (~ 5 months instead of 3 months today) and substantially increased the annual precipitation-evaporation budget.This study shed light on the high potential of A. senilis as a high resolution paleoclimate archive of rainfall variability in the Sahel region. It shows also the importance of rainfall seasonality in past hydrological cycles that should be taken into account in the future paleoclimate studies.

Water resources management in the Sahel region of West Africa is extremely difficult because of high inter-annual rainfall variability as well as a general reduction of water availability in the region. Observed changes in streamflow directly disturb key socioeconomic activities such as the agriculture sector, which constitutes one of the main survival pillars of the West African population. Seasonal rainfall forecasting is considered as one possible way to increase resilience to climate variability by providing information in advance about the amount of rainfall expected in each upcoming rainy season. Moreover, the availability of reliable information about streamflow magnitude a few months before a rainy season will immensely benefit water users who want to plan their activities. However, since the 90s, several studies have attempted to evaluate the predictability of Sahelian weather characteristics and develop seasonal rainfall and streamflow forecast models to help stakeholders take better decisions. Unfortunately, two decades later, forecasting is still difficult, and forecasts have a limited value for decision-making. It is believed that the low performance in seasonal forecasting is due to the limits of commonly used predictors and forecast approaches for this region. In this study, new seasonal forecasting approaches are developed and new predictors tested in an attempt to predict the seasonal rainfall over the Sirba watershed located in between Niger and Burkina Faso, in West Africa. Using combined statistical methods, a pool of 84 predictors with physical links with the West African monsoon and its dynamics were selected, with their optimal lag times. They were first reduced through screening using linear correlation with satellite rainfall over West Africa. Correlation analysis and principal component analysis were used to keep the most predictive principal components. Linear regression was used to get synthetic forecasts, and the model was assessed to rank the tested predictors. The three best predictors, air temperature (from Pacific Tropical North), sea level pressure (from Atlantic Tropical South) and relative humidity (from Mediterranean East) were retained and tested as inputs for seasonal rainfall forecasting models. In this thesis it has been chosen to depart from the stationarity and linearity assumptions used in most seasonal forecasting methods: 1. Two probabilistic non-stationary methods based on change point detection were developed and tested. Each method uses one of the three best predictors. Model M1 allows for changes in model parameters according to annual rainfall magnitude, while M2 allows for changes in model parameters with time. M1 and M2 were compared to the classical linear model with constant parameters (M3) and to the linear model with climatology (M4). The model allowing changes in the predictand-predictor relationship according to rainfall amplitude (M1) and using AirTemp as a predictor was the best model for seasonal rainfall forecasting in the study area. 2. Non-linear models including regression trees, feed-forward neural networks and non-linear principal component analysis were implemented and tested to forecast seasonal rainfall using the same predictors. Forecast performances were compared using coefficients of determination, Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients and hit rate scores. Non-linear principal component analysis was the best non-linear model (R2: 0.46; Nash: 0.45; HIT: 60.7), while the feed-forward neural networks and regression tree models performed poorly. All the developed rainfall forecasting methods were subsequently used to forecast seasonal annual mean streamflow and maximum monthly streamflow by introducing the rainfall forecasted in a SWAT model of the Sirba watershed, and the results are summarized as follows: 1. Non-stationary models: Models M1 and M2 were compared to models M3 and M4, and the results revealed that model M3 using RHUM as a predictor at a lag time of 8 months was the best method for seasonal annual mean streamflow forecasting, whereas model M1 using air temperature as a predictor at a lag time of 4 months was the best model to predict maximum monthly streamflow in the Sirba watershed. Moreover, the calibrated SWAT model achieved a NASH value of 0.83. 2. Non-linear models: The seasonal rainfall obtained from the non-linear principal component analysis model was disaggregated into daily rainfall using the method of fragment, and then fed into the SWAT hydrological model to produce streamflow. This forecast was fairly acceptable, with a Nash value of 0.58. The evaluation of the level of risk associated with each seasonal forecast was carried out using a simple risk measure: the probability of overtopping of the flood protection dykes in Niamey, Niger. A HEC-RAS hydrodynamic model of the Niger River around Niamey was developed for the 1980-2014 period, and a copula analysis was used to model the dependence structure of streamflows and predict the distribution of streamflow in Niamey given the predicted streamflow on the Sirba watershed. Finally, the probabilities of overtopping of the flood protection dykes were estimated for each year in the 1980-2014 period. The findings of this study can be used as a guideline to improve the performance of seasonal forecasting in the Sahel. This research clearly confirmed the possibility of rainfall and streamflow forecasting in the Sirba watershed at a seasonal time scale using potential predictors other than sea surface temperature.

La variabilité intrasaisonnière de la mousson d'Afrique de l'Ouest se caractérise par une alternance de phases sèches et humides, dont les impacts pe uvent être dramatiques sur les populations locales. Cette variabilité met en jeu un grand nombre d'échelles spatiales et temporelles, rendant difficile sa compréhension, sa modélisation et sa prévision. Cette thèse propose quelques éclairages sur ces différentes thématiques. La dépression thermique saharienne est un acteur majeur de la mousson africaine. La caractérisation de sa variabilité intrasaisonnière a permis de mettre en évidence, à l'échelle de 15 jours, l'existence d'interactions entre les latitudes moyennes et l'Afrique de l'Ouest. Lors de son passage au-dessus de l'Atlantique et la Méditerranée, un train d'ondes de Rossby module les ventilations de la dépression thermique, et donc sa structure. Les anomalies de circulation, de température et d'humidité, ainsi induites sur le Sahel, pourraient alors expliquer une partie des fluctuations intrasaisonnières de la convection, notamment celles qui naissent sur l'est du Sahel, et qui se propagent ensuite vers l'ouest. L'état moyen et la variabilité intrasaisonnière de la mousson africaine restent un défi pour les modèles de climat, même pour la dernière génération, qui a participé à l'exercice d'intercomparaison CMIP3. La variabilité à haute fréquence de la convection est un élément particulièrement difficile à modéliser. Toutefois, la meilleure prise en compte de facteurs inhibant le développement de la convection pourrait être une étape importante pour améliorer la modélisation de la mousson et la prévision de ses fluctuations intrasaisonnières / The intraseasonal variability of the West African Monsoon is associated with persistent dry and wet periods over the Sahel, whose consequences can be dramatic for local populations. Its understanding, modelling and forecast still pose a challenge to the scientific community, notably because it involves a large number of space and timescales. The present study elaborates a few answers to these issues. The Saharan heat low is one of the major actors of the African monsoon. The characterization of its intraseasonal variability revealed the existence of interaction between the tropics and the extratropics, at the 15-day timescale. As it propagates eastward above the Atlantic and the Mediterranean, a Rossby wave train modulates the heat low ventilations, and thus its structure. Anomalous circulation, as well as temperature and humidity anomalies, can be induced over the Sahel, and lead to intraseasonal modulations of convection, especially to those, which originate from the Eastern Sahel, and which, then, propagate westward. Current state-of-the-art (CMIP3) climate models still have significant problems and display a wide range of skill in simulating the West African monsoon mean state and intraseasonal variability. The high frequency variability is particularly difficult to capture. However, the account for processes, which inhibit convection development, may be expected to be an important step in the improvement of the monsoon modelling and the forecast of its intraseasonal fluctuations

La mousson d'Afrique de l'Ouest se caractérise par une très forte variabilité des pluies à toutes les échelles spatiales et temporelles. Le travail de thèse se focalise sur la variabilité synoptique et intra-saisonnière de la mousson, dont les impacts socio-économiques peuvent être dramatiques dans cette zone subsaharienne. L'objectif est d'une part de contribuer à la documentation statistique de cette variabilité et la compréhension de la physique associée, et d'autre part de mettre à profit le potentiel de prédictibilité associée à ces échelles pour guider les prévisions à courte et moyenne échéances. Au Sahel, l'humidité est un des facteurs importants pour l'activité pluviométrique, avec souvent un effet limitant sur le déclenchement de la convection profonde. Dès lors ce travail de thèse s'est focalisé sur l'humidité intégrée sur la colonne ou eau précipitable, pour étudier la variabilité de la mousson. L'activité des ondes d'est, principales perturbations synoptiques de l'atmosphère ouest-africaine pendant l'été boréal, a été détectée et analysée sous cette perspective de l'eau précipitable. Cette étude a ouvert une voie à la compréhension du couplage onde et convection au sein de la mousson. Une analyse conjointe des contributions dynamiques et diabatiques à la physique des ondes a été ensuite entreprise. Il ressort que, la dynamique, via les transports d'énergie associée à l'état de base fortement barocline du Sahel, est un élément précurseur et prédominant dans la couche d'atmosphère en-dessous du jet d'est africain. En revanche, dès que les ondes atteignent leur phase de maturité, le rôle de convection devient primordial grâce aux sources de chauffage et puits d'humidité qu'elle introduit dans l'atmosphère. En outre, elle engendre un transfert turbulent et convectif de quantité de mouvement horizontal, de la surface vers les couches plus hautes, permettant de renforcer les circulations dans la moyenne troposphère. La compréhension du couplage onde-convection ouvre alors une perspective à l'amélioration des modèles de prévision du temps sur l'Afrique. / The West African monsoon rainfall experiences a large spatial and temporal variability. In this thesis, a focus has been given on the synoptic to intra-seasonal scales which can lead to dramatic socio-economic consequences over Sahelian areas. The main goal is, on the one hand, to document and hence to better understand the physics associated with such scales of variability, and on the other hand, to provide some useful tools to improve short to medium ranges forecast skill over Africa. Over the Sahel, the supply of humidity is a key feature in the rainfall distribution and mostly a limiting factor to the initiation of deep convection. Therefore, the current study is based on the total column integrated specific humidity, also called precipitable water, to disentangle the important physics involved in the monsoon intra-seasonal variability and more specifically on the synoptic scale. African Easterly Waves (AEW), also known as the main synoptic scale disturbances of the Western African atmosphere during the boreal summer, have been detected and characterized from this "moist" perspective. This study then provides a new approach for studying the coupling between AEW and convection. A joint assessment of both dynamic and diabatic contributions to the AEW growth has been undertaken. Dynamics is, through the baroclinic and barotropic energy transport, a precursor and a predominant mechanism in the layer below the African easterly jet. However, since convection is enhancing, diabatic processes become accounting for a crucial role in the atmospheric circulation through the release of heat as well as the humidity sink. Meanwhile, subgrid convective scale eddies transport a large part of the horizontal momentum, from the surface to the mid-levels. This enhances the midtroposheric cyclonic/anticyclonic circulation of the AEW. Finally, this process-based analysis of the coupling between dynamics and convection provides some useful tools for model assessment and improvement over Africa.