Wind shear negatively impacts tropical cyclone (TC) intensity by disrupting the TC vortex and introducing lower equivalent potential temperature (θe) air, weakening the core. However, the ocean, a source of heat, aids in replenishing low θe boundary layer air, mitigating shear-induced ventilation effects. Favorable oceanic conditions, like higher sea-surface temperatures (SST), prevail in storm-relative motion quadrants not yet influenced by the TC. The interaction between storm-relative (e.g., SST) and shear-relative (e.g., ventilation) frameworks remains unclear. I propose an optimal overlap of shear-relative and motion-relative storm quadrants, where shear-induced weakening is minimized due to enhanced boundary layer recovery in a favorable ocean environment. This study presents a novel dataset comprising of co-located aircraft expendable bathythermographs (AXBT) and dropsondes from TROPIC and TC-DROPS datasets. Statistical analyses reveal air-sea correlations that cause up-shear and front-storm quadrant overlaps to be most beneficial to TC health, with investigation into the physical mechanisms driving these relationships.

This dissertation reports on studies on the role of the mean state in modulating climate variability at interannual and decadal time scales. In the atmosphere, the nonlinear superposition of mean flow and anomalous flow has important implications for many phenomena associated with variables that are nonlinear by definition, such as the vertical wind shear and surface wind speed. In the first part of this dissertation, the influence of mean flow and anomalous flow on vertical wind shear variability is studied in observations and numerical model simulations. At interannual timescales, the ENSO-shear relationship is compared between observations and numerical model simulations. It is shown that there is strong influence of mean flow on the ENSO-shear relationship. For same anomalous flow, different mean flows could give rise to a different ENSO-shear relationship. The nonlinear superposition of mean flow and anomalous flow also helps explains the dipole mode of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear variability seen in observations and models, which implies opposite variation of vertical wind shear over the two sides of the tropical Atlantic. This has important implications for predicting phenomena such as Atlantic hurricanes, whose variations are modulated by vertical shear variability. The dissertation also addresses the role of the mean surface wind in decadal variability and predictability, as manifested through the Wind-Evaporation-SST (WES) feedback. The nonlinear superposition of anomalous surface wind on the mean trade wind can give rise to a positive WES feedback, which can amplify tropical climate variability. To study this feedback, we carried out ensembles of decadal climate predictions using the CAM3 atmospheric model coupled to a slab ocean model (CAM3- SOM) with prescribed ocean transport and simple extrapolative prescriptions of future external forcings. Mechansitic sensitivity runs using the CAM3-SOM were also carried out, where the WES feedback was switched off by prescribing climatological surface wind. Results suggest that switching off the WES feedback enhances the prediction skill over some regions, especially over the eastern tropical Pacific, by increasing the signal- to-noise ratio. To address the issue of cold bias noted in the decadal prediction experiments, we carried out additional sensitivity experiments where we used an adaptive formulation for the prescribed oceanic heat transport (Q-flux) in the slab ocean. The results from these experiments demonstrate that the mean oceanic heat transport plays a crucial role in influencing decadal predictability, by helping improve predictions of the trend component of decadal variations.

As tapping energy from wind expands rapidly worldwide, it is a common procedure to locate a practicable site to extract energy from abundant wind flow by building wind farms. Comprehensive understanding of wind resource at a site   is important to perform the main activities say, wind flow modeling, wind   turbines micro siting, annual energy yield calculation and cost of energy   estimation. Wind measuring campaigns involve using of measuring instruments   such as meteorological tower instrumented with anemometers, wind vanes and   temperature sensors; remote sensing devices such as SoDAR, LiDAR. These   meteorological devices provide detailed information on wind behavior with   respect to the height, time and temperature. These systems were proven in   providing promising wind measurements even though they are susceptible to   certain weather conditions. The   study progressed by focusing on the wind behavior at three locations to   investigate the possible factors that varies the wind character. A location   with one met mast and two AQ500 SoDAR systems was considered for this project   where one AQ500 is 800m away and other AQ500 is 5515m away from the point of   Met mast. The location is contemplated as a decent approach to the spatial   analysis of the wind resource as there is a large scope to analyze the wind   character between two nearby sites and two faraway sites. Monostatic 3-beam   SoDAR systems from AQ System, Sweden and 100m meteorological tower with   instruments are used in this project work for collecting the wind data.   One-year worth of wind data at standard 10min intervals has been collected   from the three systems. This report outlines the theoretical description of project location, AQ500 SoDAR and Met mast. A detailed explanation of the data quality control and filtering methods are discussed along with respective reasons. The conclusion is drawn after performing the statistical analysis between wind speed and other parameters such as turbulent intensity, wind direction, thermal stability and temperature. Mat lab is used for computing and analyzing the wind data from three systems.

Global Positioning System radio occultation measurements by the FORMOsa SATellite mission-3/Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate satellites were used to analyse the behaviour of the signature of the terdiurnal tide in sporadic E (ES) layers at midlatitudes (43°N – 63°N). According to theory, the occurrence of ES is expected when the vertical zonal wind shear, which is mainly owing to solar tides, is negative. 4-year means, based on 3-monthly running mean zonal means from December 2006 - November 2010, were constructed for the terdiurnal oscillation in the occurrence frequency of ES. Comparison of the results with VHF meteor radar observations of the terdiurnal tide and the 8-hr oscillation in the vertical zonal wind shear at Collm, Germany (51.3°N, 13°E) shows a clear correspondence between the 8-hr Es and wind shear signature. / Radiookultationsmessungen auf der Basis von GPS-Messungen der FORMOsa SATellite mission-3/Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate-Satelliten wurden verwendet, um die Signatur der 8-stündigen Gezeiten in den Auftrittsraten von sporadischen E (Es)-Schichten zu analysieren. Nach der allgemein anerkannten Windscherungstheorie treten Es-Schichten im Bereich negativer vertikaler Windscherung auf, welche in der unteren Thermosphäre hauptsächlich durch solare Gezeiten hervorgerufen werden. Speziell werden hier 4-jährige Mittelwerte saisonal gemittelter Auftrittsraten untersucht um die 8-stündige Signatur zu finden. Ein Vergleich mit Radarmessungen des Windes über Collm zeigt, dass die saisonale und tägliche Variabilität der 8-stündigen Komponente der Es-Raten sehr gut mit derjenigen der gemessenen Windscherung übereinstimmt.

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI)

Submitted by Emanuel Varela Cardoso (emanuel.varela@ufcg.edu.br) on 2018-09-19T20:06:03Z No. of bitstreams: 1 GABRIELLE BEZERRA OLIVEIRA – DISSERTAÇÃO (PPGMet) 2017.pdf: 2219344 bytes, checksum: b1c40baaf11a5f1e293aa66cdc9139b9 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-09-19T20:06:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 GABRIELLE BEZERRA OLIVEIRA – DISSERTAÇÃO (PPGMet) 2017.pdf: 2219344 bytes, checksum: b1c40baaf11a5f1e293aa66cdc9139b9 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-02-24 / CNPq / O enfoque deste trabalho é contribuir para a compreensão dos mecanismos responsáveis pela formação das Linhas de Instabilidade Tropicais da Amazônia. Analisou-se 3 anos de dados de reanálises investigando as características dinâmicas dos perfis verticais do vento zonal e meridional a partir da média do período e das médias trimestrais dos dias com e sem a formação de LI. Mostrou-se que o JBN é uma característica intrínseca do ambiente amazônico, entretanto nos dias com a formação de LI esse jato é mais intenso e profundo. Os trimestres março-abril-maio e junho-julho-agosto não apresentam um JBN bem definido, principalmente em relação à sua profundidade. Destaca-se ainda que o cisalhamento vertical do vento é mais intenso nos dias com a formação de LI. Já o maior cisalhamento direcional da componente meridional do vento é visto nos perfis dos dias sem LI. Para auxiliar o entendimento da variabilidade temporal dos perfis verticais do vento foi aplicada a técnica de Análise Fatorial em Componentes Principais com o intuito de investigar a existência de padrões atmosféricos associados à ocorrência de LI. As três primeiras componentes principais da componente zonal do vento explicaram aproximadamente 89% da variância total dos dados, enquanto que os 93% da variância total da componente meridional foi explicado pelas cinco primeiras componentes principais. A análise dos padrões temporais associados a cada fator sugere que os trimestres DJF e SON são influenciados pela variação sazonal da ZCIT e os trimestres MAM e JJA pela ASAS e DOL. / The aim of this work is to contribute to the understanding the mechanisms responsible for the formation of Amazon Tropical Squall Lines (ASL). 3 years of reanalysis data were analyzed investigating the dynamic characteristics of vertical profiles of the zonal and meridional wind from the a average of period and quarterly of the days with and without the ASL formation. It has been shown that low level jet (LLJ) is an intrinsic characteristic of Amazonian environment, however in the days with the formation of SL this LLJ is more intense and deep. The quarters March-April-May and June-July-August do not present a well defined LLJ, mainly in relation their depth. It was also pointed out that vertical shear of wind is more intense on days with ASL formation. However, the greatest directional shear of meridional component wind is seen in the profiles of days without ASL. To aid the understanding of temporal variability of vertical profiles wind were applied the method Principal Components Fatorial Analysis in order to investigate the existence of atmospheric patterns associated with the occurrence of ASL. The first three Principal Components of the zonal wind component explained approximately 89% of the total variance of the data, while the 89% of the total variance of the meridional wind component were explained by the first five principal components. The analysis of the time patterns associated with each factor suggests that the DJF and SON quarters are influenced by the seasonal variation of the ITCZ and the quarters MAM and JJA by South Atlantic Subtropical High (SASH) and Easterly Wave Disturbances (EWD).

Suite à un stage avec la compagnie Hatch, nous possédons des jeux de données composés de séries chronologiques de vitesses de vent mesurées à divers sites dans le monde, sur plusieurs années. Les ingénieurs éoliens de la compagnie Hatch utilisent ces jeux de données conjointement aux banques de données d’Environnement Canada pour évaluer le potentiel éolien afin de savoir s’il vaut la peine d’installer des éoliennes à ces endroits. Depuis quelques années, des compagnies offrent des simulations méso-échelle de vitesses de vent, basées sur divers indices environnementaux de l’endroit à évaluer. Les ingénieurs éoliens veulent savoir s’il vaut la peine de payer pour ces données simulées, donc si celles-ci peuvent être utiles lors de l’estimation de la production d’énergie éolienne et si elles pourraient être utilisées lors de la prévision de la vitesse du vent long terme. De plus, comme l’on possède des données mesurées de vitesses de vent, l’on en profitera pour tester à partir de diverses méthodes statistiques différentes étapes de l’estimation de la production d’énergie. L’on verra les méthodes d’extrapolation de la vitesse du vent à la hauteur d’une turbine éolienne et l’on évaluera ces méthodes à l’aide de l’erreur quadratique moyenne. Aussi, on étudiera la modélisation de la vitesse du vent par la distributionWeibull et la variation de la distribution de la vitesse dans le temps. Finalement, l’on verra à partir de la validation croisée et du bootstrap si l’utilisation de données méso-échelle est préférable à celle de données des stations de référence, en plus de tester un modèle où les deux types de données sont utilisées pour prédire la vitesse du vent. Nous testerons la méthodologie globale présentement utilisée par les ingénieurs éoliens pour l’estimation de la production d’énergie d’un point de vue statistique, puis tenterons de proposer des changements à cette méthodologie, qui pourraient améliorer l’estimation de la production d’énergie annuelle. / Following an internship with the company Hatch, we have access to datasets that are composed of wind speed time series measured at different sites accross the world and over several years. The wind speed engineers from Hatch are using these datasets jointly with Environment Canada databases in order to ascertain the wind energy potential of these sites and to know whether it is worth installing wind turbines there. For a few years, some companies are also offering mesoscale simulations of wind speed based on different environmental characteristics from the site we want to evaluate. We would like to know if it is worth paying for those mesoscale datasets and if they can be used to provide better estimations of the wind energy potential. Among other things, these data could be used to provide a better estimation of the long term mean wind speed. Since we already possess measured datasets, we will also use them to test, with statistical methods, the methodology currently used and the different steps leading to an estimation of the wind energy production. First of all, we will see what are the different methods that could be used to extrapolate wind speed to a wind turbine’s height and we will evaluate those methods with the mean squared extrapolation error. Also, we will study wind distribution modelling by the Weibull distribution and consider its variability over time. Finally, cross-validation and block bootstrap will be used to see whether we should use mesoscale data instead of wind data from Environment Canada or whether it would even be beneficial to use both kind of data to predict wind speed. In summary, the whole methodology used by wind speed engineers to estimate the energy production will be tested from a statistical point of view and we will attempt to propose changes in this methodology that could improve the estimation of the wind speed annual energy production.

An exponentially growing global population, power demands, pollution levels and, on the other hand, rapid advances in means of communication have made the public aware of the complex energy situation. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has vast open land, an abundance of fossil fuel, a small population but has always been among the front-runners where the development and utilisation of clean sources of energy are concerned. Several studies on wind, solar and geothermal sources of energy have been conducted in Saudi Arabia. Solar photovoltaic (pv) has been used for a long time in many applications such as cathodic protection, communication towers and remotely located oil field installations. Recently, a 2MW grid-connected pv power plant has been put online and much larger solar desalination plants are in planning stage. Wind resource assessment, hub height optimisation, grid-connected wind farm and hybrid power system design were conducted in this study using existing methods. Historical daily mean wind speed data measured at 8 to 12metres above ground level at national and international airports in the kingdom over a period of 37 years was used to obtain long-term annual and monthly mean wind speeds, annual mean wind speed trends, frequency distribution, Weibull parameters, wind speed maps, hub height optimisation and energy yield using an efficient modern wind turbine of 2.75MW rated power. A further detailed analysis (such as estimation of wind shear exponent, Weibull parameters at different heights, frequency distribution at different heights, energy yield and plant capacity factor and wind speed variation with height) was conducted using wind speed measurements made at 20, 30 and 40metres above ground level. As a first attempt, an empirical correlation was developed for the estimation of near-optimal hub height (HH = 142.035 * (α) + 40.33) as a function of local wind shear exponent (α) with a correlation coefficient of 97%. This correlation was developed using the energy yield from a wind turbine of 1 000kW rated power and wind speed and local exponent for seven locations in Saudi Arabia. A wind-pv-diesel hybrid power system was designed and specifications were made for a remotely located village, which is being fed 100% by diesel power generating units. The proposed system, if developed, will offset around 35% of the diesel load and therefore will result in decreased air pollution by almost the same amount. The developed wind speed maps, the frequency distributions and estimated local wind shear exponents for seven locations and energy yield will be of great help in defining the further line of action and policy-building towards wind power development and utilisation in the kingdom. The study also recommends conducting a wind measurement campaign using tall towers with wind measurements at more than one height and estimating the local wind shear exponents and developing a wind atlas for the kingdom. The study further states that a grid-connected wind farm of moderate capacity of 40MW should be developed using turbines of varying rated powers. The wind speed data was also analysed using wavelet transform and Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) to understand the fluctuation in wind speed time series for some of the stations. It is also recommended that policy-makers should take firm decision on the development of hybrid power systems for remotely located populations which are not yet connected with the grid. There are two challenges which need research: one is the effect of dust on the moving and structural elements of the wind turbines and the second is the effect of high prevailing temperatures on the performance and efficiency of the same. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Mechanical and Aeronautical Engineering / PhD / Unrestricted

This thesis is about wind shear and its influence on aviation. There is wide theoretical description of wind shear and itâs implemented into aviation practice. There are also methods of observation, forecasting and reporting, for both pilots and meteorologist described. In this thesis, pilots can find useful recommendations for dealing with wind shear during the flight. Every reader can also read about famous aviation accidents and look at models of weather that caused those accidents. At the end of thesis there are analyses of a rawiosonde measurements related to wind shear reports. This whole thesis is focused on increasing awareness of wind shear in aviation from angle of view of both pilots and aviation meteorologist.