No description available.

No description available.

No description available.

Low wind speed conditions should be studied because these conditions can present risk, particularly for areas immediately surrounding the release point, where high concentrations can occur and not dissipate. The following research attempts to clarify the processes governing both the general and low wind speed cases by determining the accuracy and uncertainty of standard prediction methods for contaminant plume transport in low wind speed plume modeling. Multiple techniques were utilized to incorporate field measured data, previously gathered for a different purpose, to generate parameter distributions and ground-truth data that could be used in stochastic models for chemical plume prediction. These data were taken during a multi-day experiment performed on Frenchman Flats, a flat, dry lakebed, at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) in February of 2007 and include weather data and chemical concentrations throughout the chemical release time. I organized these data into continuous time series for each sampling location, which were represented as vectors for the statistical and mathematical analysis. I then animated these vectors with respect to time and performed a stochastic analysis which I compared to these observed vectors. Predicted vectors of chemical concentrations, based on the statistical parameter distributions generated from the observed vectors were developed and a statistical analysis was performed on the results of the stochastic process to determine how well the model predicted the plume. It was found that stochastically modeling, with SCIPuff, of contaminant plume releases in low wind speed conditions is not accurate. This was expected because below 2 m/s, plumes no longer have a Gaussian distribution and are difficult to predict because of fluctuating winds. In fact, the model only accurately predicts the period before the plume arrives at the sensor when no plume is present. It is possible, and even probable, that stochastic modeling of contaminant plumes will provide a means to compute the bounds of a release, when coupled with a model that is accurate for low wind speed conditions and includes all the complexities of the wind field. An unexpected finding is the fact that the vertical dimension of wind movement cannot be ignored in low wind speed conditions. When planning future experiments, special attention should be paid to obtaining a good representation of the 3-D wind profile.

Thesis (MScEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Tropical cyclones are synoptic scale rotating storms capable of generating intense wind speeds and rainfall with potentially devastating social and economic consequences. In addition to abnormally high winds and rainfall, the associated storm surge and extreme waves can lead to severe coastal erosion, damage to coastal property and inundation. A good understanding of the risk exposure to these events is therefore of great importance to planners and designers of coastal infrastructure in vulnerable regions. Probabilistic approaches have been routinely adopted for the calculation of extreme tropical cyclone induced wind speeds, with significant developments in these techniques over the last few decades. While the application of these approaches has become widely adopted in regions such as the North Atlantic, North Pacific and South Pacific Oceans, relatively little attention has been paid to the South-West Indian Ocean. This thesis focusses on the quantification of the risk exposure to tropical cyclones over the South-West Indian Ocean, using current state-of-the-art techniques. The primary results of the thesis are extreme wind speed maps at various return periods of interest for engineering design. Best track data for the South-West Indian Ocean, as archived by the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC), has been used as the primary dataset forming the basis of this study. These data provide estimates of the location and intensity of historical tropical cyclones at six hourly intervals. Location data are provided as estimates of longitude and latitude of the eye, while intensity data are provided as estimates of the maximum sustained surface (10 m elevation) wind speed and/or minimum central pressure. The modelling of tropical cyclone wind fields has been carried out using both the Holland (1980) and the Willoughby et al. (2006) parametric wind field models. Using the limited information available in the best track data as input to the model, surface wind fields which reasonably resemble those of actual storms have been generated. Both considered parametric wind field models have been shown to yield reasonable wind speeds and directions when compared with measurements. Of the two considered models the Willoughby et al. (2006) model has been shown to provide the best fit to historical wind speed measurements. Extreme value analyses of tropical cyclone induced wind speeds based on historical data alone have been shown to lead to potentially large errors, owing to the small sample size of the historical data. This highlights the need to augment the historical database through a probabilistic approach. Largely following the methods described in Powel et al. (2005) and Emanuel et al. (2006), a synthetic track model for the South-West Indian Ocean has been developed. The objective of the synthetic track model is to simulate thousands of years of tropical cyclone tracks, thereby circumventing errors induced by small sample sizes in the available historical best track data. The synthetic track model developed as part of this study is a Markov chain model, capable of simulating track propagation and intensity evolution along the track, from track genesis through to termination. The model is purely statistical, based on properties derived from the historical best track data. Adjustments have however been made to account for physical limitations such as those imposed by the equator and the maximum potential intensity which an event can attain. The statistical characteristics of synthetic tracks have been shown to agree well with those of the historical population. Applying the Willoughby et al. (2006) wind field model along synthetic tracks has enabled the simulation of 5 000 years of tropical cyclone induced wind speeds at any location of interest in the South-West Indian Ocean. Applying calculations on a 1 degree geographical grid, wind speed maps corresponding to return periods of 50, 100, 200 and 500 years have been generated for the South-West Indian Ocean. Extreme wind speeds along coastal regions provide valuable input for the design of coastal infrastructure in the region. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Tropiese siklone is sinoptiese orde roterende storms wat in staat is om aansienlike windspoed en reënval, tot gevolg te hê met potensiële vernietigende sosiale en ekonomiese gevolge. Benewens die abnormale sterk winde en hoë reënval kan die verwante stormdeinings en vloedgolwe lei tot ernstige kus-erosie, skade aan kusfront-eiendom en oorstromings. ‘n Goeie begrip van die risiko-blootstelling aan hierdie gebeurtenisse is daarom van groot belang vir die beplanners en ontwerpers van kus-infrastruktuur in kwesbare gebiede. As gevolg van die beduidende ontwikkeling van probabilistiese benadering tot die berekening van windspoed wat veroorsaak word deur ekstreme tropiese siklone, word hierdie tegnieke huidiglike op ‘n roetine basis aangewend. Terwyl die toepassing van hierdie benaderings wyd aanvaar word in gebiede soos die Noord-Atlantiese, Noordelike- en Suidelike Stille Oseaan, word relatief min aandag gegee aan die Suid-Westelike Indiese Oseaan. Hierdie tesis fokus op die kwantifisering van die risiko-blootstelling aan tropiese siklone in die Suid-Westelike Indiese Oseaan met die gebruik van die huidige gevorderdste tegnieke. Die primêre resultaat van die tesis is uiterste wind spoed kaarte vir ‘n verskeindenheid herhaal periodes wat van belang in vir engenieursontwerp. Beste roete-ata vir die Suid-Westelike Indiese Oseaan, soos voorsien deur die Gesametlike Tifoon Waarskuwing Sentrum (JTWC), is gebruik as die primêre data stel wat die basis vorm van hierdie studie. Hierdie data gee die beste skattings van die ligging (lengte- en breedtegraad), en intensiteit (maksimum volgehoue oppervlak (10m hoogte) wind spoed en/of sentrale druk tekort) van historiese tropiese siklone teen ses-uurlikse intervalle. Die modelering van tropiese sikloon windvelde was uitgevoer met die gebruik van die Holland (1980) en die Willoughby et al. (2006) parametriese windveldmodelle. Met die gebruik van beperkte inligting wat beskikbaar is in die beste roete data as invoer vir die model, was oppervlak wind velde gegenereer wat ‘n billike ooreenstemming het met die van werklike storms. Beide tegnieke se parametriese windveldmodelle is al bewys om redelike akkurate windspoed en windrigtings te lewer in vergelyking met waargenome waardes. Van die twee modelle het die Willoughby et al. (2006) model se resultate die beste ooreenstemming gewys met historiese wind spoed metings. Dit is al uitgewys dat uiterste waarde-analises van tropiese sikloon veroorsaakte windspoed moontlik kan lei tot groot foute in die resultate as gevolg van die klein monster-grootte van die historiese data. Dit beklemtoon die noodsaaklikheid om die historiese databasis aan te vul met behulp van probabilistiese metodes. Die metodes soos beskryf deur Powel et al. (2005) en Emanuel et al. (2006) is hoofsaaklik gebruik om ‘n sintetiese roete-model vir die Suid-Westelike Oseaan te ontwikkel. Die doelwit van die sintetiese roete model is om duisende jare se tropiese sikloonroetes te produseer, en in effek foute te vermy as gevolg van die gebruik van klein monster groottes van die beskikbare historiese beste roete data. Die sintetiese roete model wat tydens hierdie studie ontwikkel is, is ‘n Markov kettingmodel wat in staat is om die roete verspreiding asook die evolusie van intensiteit saam die roete te simuleer vanaf die onstaan tot die beëindiging van die sikloon se roete. Die model is suiwer statisties en is gebasseer op die eienskappe soos afgelei vanaf die historiese beste roete data. Aanpassings is gemaak om rekening te hou van die fisiese beperkings soos die wat opgelê word deur die ewenaar en die maksimum potensiële intensiteit wat ‘n sikloon kan bereik. Dit is voorgelê dat die statistiese einskappe van die sintetiese roetes goed saamstem met die van die historiese populasie. Die toepassing van die Willoughby et al. (2006) wind veld model langs die sintetiese roetes het dit moontlik gemaak om 5000 jaar se windspoed, wat veroorsaak is deur tropiese siklone, te genereer by enige ligging wat van belang is in die Suid-Westelike Indiese Oseaan. Met berekeninge wat op ‘n 1 grade geografiese ruitnet gedoen is, is windspoedkaarte vir herhaal periodes van 50, 100, 200 en 500 jaar opgestel vir die Suid-Westelike Indiese Oseaan. Die uiterste wind spoed in kusgebiede gee waardevolle invoer vir die ontwerp van kus-infrastruktuur in die omgewing.

Šio darbo tikslas - ištirti pastovių elektros energijos poreikių tenkinimo galimybes naudojant kompleksiškai saulės ir vėjo energijos konversijos į elektros energijos sistemas. Darbe nustatyta pagrindiniai kompleksinės, saulės – vėjo, jėgainės parametrai, remiantis daugiamečiais ir 2009 metų saulės ir vėjo parametrų stebėjimo duomenimis. Tyrimų metu nustatyta, kompleksinės saulės – vėjo jėgainės optimalios kompleksinio naudojimo galimybės. Analizuojant daugiamečius meteorologinius duomenis nustatyta, kad 1 kWh/dieną elektros energijos poreikius galima patenkinti naudojant kompleksinę saulės ir vėjo energijos sistema. Kompleksinėje sistemoje būtina naudoti 1,35 m2 vėjaračio darbinį plotą ir 0,98 m2 ploto fotoelektrinį modulį. / The aim - to investigate steady electricity needs, using an integrated solar and wind energy conversion to electric power systems. The work of the basic hybrid solar - wind power settings on the basis of perennial and 2009 year solar wind parameters monitoring data. Studies have shown, the hybrid solar - wind turbine optimum use of complex options. The analysis of multi-meteorological data showed that 1 kWh / day energy needs can be met using an integrated solar and wind energy system. The complex system requires the use of 1.35 m2 swept area working and 0.98 m2 photovoltaic modules.

<p><strong><p>Studie av koldioxidgradienter i havets ytskikt</p><p>Sofia Söderholm</p></strong></p><p>Denna studie bygger på ett nyligen utvecklat instrument som har mätt koldioxidkoncentrationer på tre olika djup i vattnet samt en nivå i luften. Då detta instrument var oprövat i vatten har en utvärdering av mätmetodens lämplighet för vattenmätningar utförts. Syftet med mätningarna var att undersöka ytvattnets vertikala koldioxidgradient för att med hjälp av denna kunna beskriva flödet av koldioxid mellan hav och atmosfär bättre. Detta flöde är en viktig del av den globala kolcykeln och en djupare förståelse för koldioxidflödets beteende kan i framtiden bidra till mer noggranna klimatprognoser. Hur de beräknade flödena från profilinstrumentet påverkas av temperaturgradienterna i vattnets ytskikt har även det studerats. Mätningarna utfördes i vattnet utanför mätstationen på Östergarnsholm, öster om Gotland. En del av studien fokuserar på de horisontella koldioxidgradienterna i ytvattnet som erhållits genom fartygsdata.</p><p>Instrumentet som har använts vid mätningarna bygger på hydrofoba, luftgenomträngliga membran och förefaller fungera mycket väl i vatten. Vid vindhastigheter som inte är högre än 3 - 4 m/s kan tydliga koldioxidgradienter i vattnets ytskikt ses, men detta samband behöver verifieras med en större mängd mätdata. Temperaturgradienten i vattnets ytskikt har ingen större påverkan på vare sig koldioxidgradienten eller flödet av koldioxid och dess effekt kan försummas i detta fall. De horisontella koldioxidgradienterna påverkas huvudsakligen av temperaturen, den biologiska aktiviteten samt transport av vattenmassor. På en större skala kan tydliga effekter av temperaturen på koldioxidhalterna ses och på en mindre skala samt nära kuster och under våren är den biologiska aktiviteten dominerande.</p><p><em><p>Nyckelord: Koldioxidgradient, koldioxidflöde, temperaturgradient, hydrofoba luftgenomträngliga membran, transferhastighet, vindhastighet, biologisk aktivitet.</p></em></p> / <p><strong><p>A study regarding the carbon dioxide gradients in the surface water.</p><p>Sofia Söderholm</p></strong></p><p>This study is based on a recently developed instrument that measures the concentration of carbon dioxide at three different depths in the water and one level in the air. Since this instrument has not previously been used for measurements in water, an evaluation regarding the usefulness of the instruments for measurements in water was made. The purpose of the measurements was to study the vertical gradient of carbon dioxide in the surface water and to describe the vertical flux of carbon dioxide between the ocean and the atmosphere in an improved way. This flux is an important part of the global carbon cycle and a deeper understanding of the behavior of the air-sea exchange of carbon dioxide could contribute to more accurate forecasts of the future climate. The impact on the calculated carbon dioxide flux by the temperature gradients in the surface waters was also analyzed. The measurements were performed in the waters outside of the island of Östergarnsholm, east of Gotland. Part of the study focuses on the horizontal carbon dioxide in the surface water, which was obtained by ship data.</p><p>The instrument used when performing the measurements is based on hydrophobic, air-permeable membranes and appears to function very well in water. During wind speeds below 3 - 4 m/s distinct carbon dioxide gradients can be seen for the investigated data, but more data is needed to quantify this gradient for different situations. The temperature gradient in the surface water doesn't have a significant effect on the carbon dioxide gradient or the flow of carbon dioxide, and the effect of the temperature gradient can in this particular case be neglected. The horizontal gradients of carbon dioxide are mainly affected by temperature, biological activity and transportation of water mass. On a larger scale the effects of temperature on the concentrations of carbon dioxide are visible and on a smaller scale along with the coastal areas and during springtime, the biological activity is the dominating influence.</p><p><em><p>Keywords: Carbon dioxide gradient, carbon dioxide flux, temperature gradient, hydrophobic airpermeable membranes , transfer velocity, wind speeds, biological activity.</p></em></p>

Studie av koldioxidgradienter i havets ytskikt Sofia Söderholm Denna studie bygger på ett nyligen utvecklat instrument som har mätt koldioxidkoncentrationer på tre olika djup i vattnet samt en nivå i luften. Då detta instrument var oprövat i vatten har en utvärdering av mätmetodens lämplighet för vattenmätningar utförts. Syftet med mätningarna var att undersöka ytvattnets vertikala koldioxidgradient för att med hjälp av denna kunna beskriva flödet av koldioxid mellan hav och atmosfär bättre. Detta flöde är en viktig del av den globala kolcykeln och en djupare förståelse för koldioxidflödets beteende kan i framtiden bidra till mer noggranna klimatprognoser. Hur de beräknade flödena från profilinstrumentet påverkas av temperaturgradienterna i vattnets ytskikt har även det studerats. Mätningarna utfördes i vattnet utanför mätstationen på Östergarnsholm, öster om Gotland. En del av studien fokuserar på de horisontella koldioxidgradienterna i ytvattnet som erhållits genom fartygsdata. Instrumentet som har använts vid mätningarna bygger på hydrofoba, luftgenomträngliga membran och förefaller fungera mycket väl i vatten. Vid vindhastigheter som inte är högre än 3 - 4 m/s kan tydliga koldioxidgradienter i vattnets ytskikt ses, men detta samband behöver verifieras med en större mängd mätdata. Temperaturgradienten i vattnets ytskikt har ingen större påverkan på vare sig koldioxidgradienten eller flödet av koldioxid och dess effekt kan försummas i detta fall. De horisontella koldioxidgradienterna påverkas huvudsakligen av temperaturen, den biologiska aktiviteten samt transport av vattenmassor. På en större skala kan tydliga effekter av temperaturen på koldioxidhalterna ses och på en mindre skala samt nära kuster och under våren är den biologiska aktiviteten dominerande. Nyckelord: Koldioxidgradient, koldioxidflöde, temperaturgradient, hydrofoba luftgenomträngliga membran, transferhastighet, vindhastighet, biologisk aktivitet. / A study regarding the carbon dioxide gradients in the surface water. Sofia Söderholm This study is based on a recently developed instrument that measures the concentration of carbon dioxide at three different depths in the water and one level in the air. Since this instrument has not previously been used for measurements in water, an evaluation regarding the usefulness of the instruments for measurements in water was made. The purpose of the measurements was to study the vertical gradient of carbon dioxide in the surface water and to describe the vertical flux of carbon dioxide between the ocean and the atmosphere in an improved way. This flux is an important part of the global carbon cycle and a deeper understanding of the behavior of the air-sea exchange of carbon dioxide could contribute to more accurate forecasts of the future climate. The impact on the calculated carbon dioxide flux by the temperature gradients in the surface waters was also analyzed. The measurements were performed in the waters outside of the island of Östergarnsholm, east of Gotland. Part of the study focuses on the horizontal carbon dioxide in the surface water, which was obtained by ship data. The instrument used when performing the measurements is based on hydrophobic, air-permeable membranes and appears to function very well in water. During wind speeds below 3 - 4 m/s distinct carbon dioxide gradients can be seen for the investigated data, but more data is needed to quantify this gradient for different situations. The temperature gradient in the surface water doesn't have a significant effect on the carbon dioxide gradient or the flow of carbon dioxide, and the effect of the temperature gradient can in this particular case be neglected. The horizontal gradients of carbon dioxide are mainly affected by temperature, biological activity and transportation of water mass. On a larger scale the effects of temperature on the concentrations of carbon dioxide are visible and on a smaller scale along with the coastal areas and during springtime, the biological activity is the dominating influence. Keywords: Carbon dioxide gradient, carbon dioxide flux, temperature gradient, hydrophobic airpermeable membranes , transfer velocity, wind speeds, biological activity.

Wind power presently plays a minor role in Western Canada as compared to hydroelectric power in British Columbia and coal and natural gas thermal power generation in Alberta. However, ongoing reductions in the cost of wind power generation facilities and the increasing costs of conventional power generation, particularly if the cost to the environment is included, suggest that assessment of the present and future wind field in Western Canada is of some importance. To assess present wind power, raw hourly wind speeds and homogenized monthly mean wind speeds from 30 stations in Western Canada were analyzed over the period 1971-2000 (past). The hourly data were adjusted using the homogenized monthly means to attempt to compensate for differences in anemometer height from the standard height of 10m and changes in observing equipment at stations. A regional reanalysis product, the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), and simulations conducted with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) driven with global reanalysis boundary forcing, were compared to the adjusted station wind-speed time-series and probability distributions. The NARR had a better temporal correlation with the observations, than the CRCM. We posit this is due to the NARR assimilating regional observations, whereas the CRCM did not. The NARR was generally worse than the CRCM in reproducing the observed speed distribution, possibly due to the crude representation of the regional topography in NARR. While the CRCM was run at both standard (45 km) and fine (15 km) resolution, the fine grid spacing does not always provide better results: the character of the surrounding topography appears to be an important factor for determining the level of agreement. Multiple simulations of the CRCM at the 45 km resolution were also driven by two global climate models (GCMs) over the periods 1971-2000 (using only historic emissions) and 2031-2060 (using the A2 emissions scenario). In light of the CRCM biases relative to the observations, these simulations were calibrated using quantile-quantile matching to the adjusted station observations to obtain ensembles of 9 and 25 projected wind speed distributions for the 2031-2060 period (future) at the station locations. Both bias correction and change factor techniques were used for calibration. At most station locations modest increases in mean wind speed were found for most of the projected distributions, but with a large variance. Estimates of wind power density for the projected speed distributions were made using a relationship between wind speed and power from a CRCM simulation for both time periods using the 15km grid. As would be expected from the wind speed results and the proportionality of wind power to the cube of wind speed, wind power at the station locations is more likely than not to increase in the 2031-2060 period from the 1971-2000 period. Relative changes in mean wind speeds at station locations were found to be insensitive to the station observations and choice of calibration technique, suggesting that we estimate relative change at all 45km grid points using all pairs of past/future mean wind speeds from the CRCM simulations. Overall, our results suggest that wind energy resources in Western Canada are reasonably likely to increase at least modestly in the future. / Graduate / 0725 / 0608 / jtdaines@uvic.ca