Abstract—This paper describes the application of the abrupt change detection technologies to detect the abrupt changes in the signals recorded during disturbances in the electrical power network of South Africa for disturbance analysis and relay performance monitoring. The aim is to estimate the time instants of the changes in the signal model parameters during the prefault condition, after initiation of fault, after the circuit-breaker opening and autoreclosure, etc. After these event-specific segmentations, the synchronization of the different digital fault recorder recordings are done based on the fault inception timings. The synchronized signals are segmented again. This synchronized segmentation is the first step toward automatic disturbance recognition, facilitating further complex feature vector analysis and pattern recognition. Besides, the synchronized, segmented recordings can be directly used to analyze certain kinds of disturbances and monitor the relay performance. This paper presents many practical examples from the power network in South Africa.

This work deals with the underlying physical mechanisms and processes that dominate the fracture of cement based materials and their electrical properties. Electric current emissions were recorded when hardened cement pastes and cement mortars suffered mechanical loading in various modes. Such electric current emissions are known as Pressure Stimulated Currents (PSC) when the applied loading is compressional while they are mentioned as Bending Stimulated Currents (BSC) when the material suffers bending loadings. The physical mechanism responsible for the PSC and BSC emissions can be interpreted in terms of the Moving Charged Dislocations model that correlates mechanical deformation and electric charge distortions in the sample bulk. Laboratory experiments were designed based on the mechanical and physical properties of cement. To conduct the experiments all the background material concerning cement fracture mechanics, the microstructure of the hardened cement paste and the Interfacial Transition Zone of cement mortar were taken into consideration. Additionally, the experience of the PSC technique when it was applied on marble samples was used to guide the experimental procedures and compare qualitatively and quantitatively the experimental results. The relationship between the emitted PSC and the strain was established for the very first time for cement based materials in the present work. When the material was stressed within the range where stress and strain are linearly related a linear relation between PSC and stress rate (d/dt) was observed. Deviation from this linearity appeared when the applied stress was in the range where the applied stress and the yielded strain were not linearly related. Slightly before fracture, intense, non-linear PSC emissions were detected. The damage of the sample structure due to excessive loading in the plastic region significantly affected the recorded phenomena. Bending tests proved that similar electric current emissions are detected when a sample beam suffers 3 Point Bending Tests. The dependence of the emitted electric current on the way of fracture (i.e. compressional or tensional) was proved. It was also shown that the magnitude of the emitted electric current is directly related to the magnitude of damage due to the external loading. Thus, as it was expected, the electric current emitted from the tensed zone is significantly greater than the corresponding emitted from the compressed zone.

Master of Science / Department of Animal Sciences and Industry / Teresa L. Douthit / Abruptly increasing concentrate in the ration of horses results in altered cecal dynamics which can culminate in digestive distress. Nine Quarter horses previously fitted with cecal cannulae were utilized for 3 consecutive 22-d experiments, each separated by 2 d of rest. During Exp. 1 and 2 horses were acclimated to the same ration for the initial 21 d of each period, followed by a concentrate challenge on d 22. The acclimation ration consisted of a morning meal of 0.5% BW concentrate (Omolene 200, Purina Animal Nutrition, LLC, Gray Summit, MO) fed with 1.5% BW prairie grass hay divided evenly between a morning and evening meal. On d 22 of Exp. 1, horses were fed a morning meal consisting solely of 1.0% BW concentrate while 1.25% BW concentrate was fed on d 22 of Exp. 2. Cecal samples were obtained through cecal cannulae from d 19 to 22 of each experiment every 4 h for h 24 following the morning meal each day. Cecal pH during Exp. 1 was recorded and decreased at h 12 following the concentrate meal on d 22 in comparison to cecal pH at h 12 on d 19 to 21 (P = 0.009). During Exp. 2 cecal pH increased at h 4 (P = 0.02) and decreased at h 12 and 20 (P < 0.0001) following this oncentrate challenge compared to cecal pH recorded at the same time points during the acclimation period. Experiment 3 differed from that of Exp. 2 only in the respect that during the acclimation period horses were fed, in addition to the acclimation ration, either a proprietary supplement (n = 5) or a placebo (n = 5). Cecal samples from d 19 to 22 were analyzed for pH, concentration of lactate, and concentration of VFA. Horses consuming the supplement had increased cecal pH at h 4 (P = 0.009), concurrently decreased cecal lactate (P = 0.02), increased ratio of (acetate+butyrate)/propionate at h 8 and 16 (P ≤ 0.006), and decreased VFA concentration at h 24 (P ≤ 0.05) compared to horses in the control group following the concentrate challenge.

The most critical hazards impacting the world today are the affects of climate change and global warming. Scientists have been studying the Earth's climate for centuries and have come to agreement that our climate is changing, and has changed, many times abruptly over the history of our planet. This research focuses on the impacts of global warming related to increased hurricane intensities and their surge responses along the coast of the State of Louisiana. Surge responses are quantified for storms that could potentially occur under present climate but 50 years into the future on a coast subjected to current erosion and local subsidence effects. Analyses of projected hurricane intensities influenced by an increase in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are performed. Intensities of these storms are projected to increase by 5% per degree of increase in SSTs. A small suite of these storms influenced by global warming and potentially realized by abrupt climate changes are modeled. Simulations of these storms are executed using a storm surge model. The surges produced by these storms are significantly higher than surges produced by presentday storms. These surges are then compared to existing surge frequency distributions along the Louisiana coast.

Esta pesquisa teve como objetivo avaliar o uso de diferentes aditivos alimentares, monensina, virginiamicina e óleos funcionais, em bovinos confinados sem adaptação e alimentados sem adaptação com uma dieta de 92% de concentrado. Foram utilizados 48 novilhos da raça Nelore, com peso vivo inicial de 322 &plusmn; 23 kg e aproximadamente 20 meses de idade. Os animais foram divididos em quatro blocos de acordo com o peso e alocados em baias individuais, cada baia representando uma unidade experimental, totalizando 48 baias, dividas em quatro tratamentos, sendo 12 repetições (baias). A única diferença entre as dietas fornecidas foi o aditivo alimentar utilizado: monensina a 30 mg/ kg MS (M30), monensina a 40 mg/kg MS (M40), monensina 30 mg/kg MS mais virginiamicina 25 mg/kg MS (MV) e óleos funcionais de mamona e caju em dosagem de 400 mg/kg MS (OF). A dosagem M40 foi fornecida nos primeiros 14 dias do experimento e depois foi reduzida para 30 mg/ kg. As análises estatísticas foram realizadas pelo procedimento GLM do SAS, e as variáveis de medidas repetidas no tempo foram analisadas pelo procedimento MIXED do SAS. Os animais foram confinados durante 120 dias. Os primeiros 21 dias de confinamento foram mensurados com objetivo de se avaliar o efeitos dos aditivos após a mudança abrupta da dieta no período inicial de confinamento. As características de ingestão de matéria seca, parâmetros sanguíneos, pH de fezes e amido fecal foram avaliados. A IMS foi menor (P=0,01) para animais do tratamento MV. O peso vivo dos animais (P=0,001) foi maior para animais dos tratamentos M40 e OF. Animais dos tratamentos M30 e MV apresentaram maior pH fecal (P=0,0004) que M40 e OF, mas sem diferença para o teor de amido fecal (P=0,068). Os parâmetros sanguíneos não foram alterados pelos aditivos utilizados (P&gt;0,05). Os animais foram abatidos após 120 dias de confinamento e avaliadas as características de desempenho e comportamento ingestivo para o período total de confinamento e as características da carne e da carcaça. Animais recebendo OF tiveram maior ingestão de matéria seca que animais recebendo M30 e MV, sem diferença (P=0,22) entre OF e M40. Animais dos tratamentos M40 e OF apresentaram menor tempo (min) de ingestão por kg de MS (P=0,02) e mastigação por kg de MS (P=0,03) Não houve efeito de tratamento (P&gt;0,05) para as características da carne e da carcaça com exceção da gordura pélvica, renal e inguinal que foi mais pesada (P=0,006) para animais recebendo OF, porém sem diferença quando comparado a M40. Os aditivos alimentares apresentaram resultados semelhantes entre si nas características avaliadas. Aparentemente a ausência da adaptação com o uso de rações altamente energéticas não causou prejuízo para o desempenho animal, provavelmente pela proteção auferida pelos aditivos e o uso de óleos funcionais foi tão eficiente quanto os antibióticos em evitar distúrbios metabólicos em bovinos Nelore. / The aim of this trial was to evaluate the use of monensin, virginiamycin, and functional oils on bovines feedlot fed without adaptation a 92% concentrate diet. Forty eight Nellore bovines, with initial body weight (322 &plusmn; 23 kg) and 20 months old, raised on pastures, were allocated in individual pens and divided in four blocks according to BW, and fed a basal diet with 92% concentrate. Treatments consisted of the inclusion of: monensin 30 mg/ kg of DM (M30), monensin 40 mg/kg of DM of MS (M40), monensin 30 mg/kg of DM plus virginiamycin 25 mg/kg of DM (MV) and functional oils of castor oil and cashew nut shell on 400 mg/kg of DM (FO). The dosage of M40 decreased to 30 mg/kg of DM after 14 days. Statistical analyses were conducted according to GLM proceedings of SAS, and repeated measures were analyzed using MIXED proceeding of SAS. Animals were fed for 120 days. The first 21 days were evaluated to determine the additives effects after the abrupt change challenge. Feed intake characteristics, blood parameters, fecal pH and fecal starch were measured. DMI was lower for MV animals and the BW was heavier for M40 and FO animals. Animals receiving M30 and MV additives had higher fecal pH (P=0.0004) than those receiving M40 and FO, but without difference in the starch amount (P=0.068). Blood parameters were not influenced by the additives (P&gt;0.05). Animals were slaughtered after 120 days on feed and performance, feeding behavior, and carcass characteristics were evaluated. Animals receiving OF had higher DMI than animals M30 and MV, without difference (P=0.22) between OF and M40. Animals from treatments M40 and FO spent less time (min/kg DM)) eating (P=0.02) and masticating (P=0.03). There was no treatment effect (P&gt;0.05) for meat and carcass characteristics, except for pelvic, kidney and heart fat that was heavier (P=0.006) for animals receiving OF, but without difference with M40. Feed additives had similar results among themselves on the characteristics evaluated. Apparently the absence of adaptation with the use of high energy diets did not cause any injury for animal performance probably because of the protection offered by the additives, and the use of functional oils was as efficient as antibiotics on avoiding metabolic disturbances on Nellore bovines.

Aditivos são amplamente utilizados em dietas ricas em concentrado para prevenir distúrbios metabólicos. A alga calcária, Lithothamnium calcareum, produto natural e renovável, fonte de carbonato de cálcio, pode ser uma alternativa na prevenção destes distúrbios. Este estudo foi desenvolvido para avaliar o efeito das fontes de cálcio, com ou sem monensina sódica na dieta, no controle da acidose ruminal de bovinos Nelore recebendo de forma abrupta uma dieta com elevada proporção (92,3%) de concentrado. Oito bovinos portadores de cânulas ruminais foram distribuídos em um delineamento quadrado latino (4x4) duplo. Os tratamentos foram a adição a dieta base com diferentes fontes de cálcio, calcário calcítico (CC) ou produto a base de alga calcária (AC), com (CMO) ou sem (SMO) a presença de monensina. A inclusão de CC, AC e monensina foi, respectivamente, de 7,1 g/kg, 7,4 g/kg e 30 mg/kg MS. Não houve efeito das fontes de cálcio e da monensina sobre o consumo alimentar e concentração total dos ácidos graxos de cadeia curta. Os tratamentos com AC resultaram em maior pH ruminal médio (P=0,039), menor tempo com pH ruminal abaixo de 5,2 (P&lt;0,001) e um maior pH sanguíneo (P=0,006). Os tratamentos com monensina apresentaram menor tempo com pH ruminal abaixo de 5,2 (P=0.023). O produto a base de alga calcária pode ser uma boa alternativa para prevenir distúrbios metabólicos em animais submetidos a mudanças abruptas para dietas com elevada proporção de concentrado. / Additives are used in high concentrate diets in order to prevent metabolic disorders. Calcareous algae (Lithothamnium calcareum), a natural and renewable product, may be an alternative to prevent these disorders. This study was designed to evaluate the effect of calcium sources and monensin in the control of ruminal acidosis of Nellore cattle, abruptly fed a high (92.3%) concentrate diet. Eight cannulated steers were randomly assigned to a doubled 4x4 Latin square design. The treatments were the inclusion of different sources of calcium to the basic diet, limestone or calcareous algae, with or without the presence of monensin. The inclusion of limestone, calcareous algae and monensin was, respectively, 7.1 g/kg, 7.4 g/kg and 30mg/kg DM. There was on effect of calcium source (P=0.607) and monensin (P=0.294) on feed intake and in the short chain fatty acids concentration. Treatments with calcareous algae based product resulted in greater ruminal pH mean (P=0.039), lower time rumen pH remained below 5.2 (P&lt;0.001) and better control of blood pH (P=0.006). Treatments with the presence of monensin also resulted in lower time of rumen pH below 5.2 (P=0.023). Calcareous algae may be an alternative to be used in pH control of beef cattle fed high concentrate diets.

The Earth's climate is changing. This is a conclusion of the Third Assessment Report published by the International Panel on Climate Change. The increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols alter the energy path through the atmosphere. In the future, a likely consequence of the induced global warming is an increased melting of the Greenland ice sheet. This could lead to abrupt climatic modifications associated with the collapse of the thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic. To investigate this issue, a coupled model of the climate system has been developed. Most components of this system are taken into account by this model. LMD5, an atmospheric general circulation model originating from the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique in Paris, simulates the atmosphere. CLIO2, an oceanic general circulation model set up at the Institut d'Astronomie et de Géophysique G. Lemaître at the UCL, accounts for the ocean and the sea ice. Finally, GISM is a Greenland ice-sheet model developed at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB). The atmospheric and oceanic components had already been coupled. A new version has been elaborated during this thesis to enable long-term realistic simulations. To restrain the initial drift, adjustements have been made in atmospheric, oceanic and sea-ice parameters in collaboration with the research teams that set up the models. Other modifications have been performed in the framework of climate change experiments to separately handle greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. Finally, LMD5-CLIO2 has been coupled to GISM in collaboration with VUB researchers. Validation of LMD5-CLIO2 implies a 150-year long control simulation under constant 1970 forcings. The validation is twofold: on the one hand, the LMD5-CLIO2 results have been contrasted with observational estimates and on the other hand, these have been compared to other coupled models results. This leads to the conclusions that LMD5-CLIO2 simulates relatively well the present- day climate and that it performs as well as many other coupled models. Two climate change experiments have been carried out using the IPCC SRES B2 scenario. The first one deals with the impact of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols on the 21st century climate. The globally averaged warming reaches 2.4°C at the end of the 21st century compared to 1970. The hydrological cycle is amplified: precipitation increases by 3.3 % over the same period. This corroborates the projections of other coupled models. Consequently, it improves our confidence in the LMD5-CLIO2 simulations. The second climate change experiment performed with LMD5-CLIO2-GISM investigates the impact of the Greenland ice-sheet freshwater flux on the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. To our knowledge, it is the first time that such a complex coupled model is used to analyse this issue. In this simulation, deep convection in the North Atlantic ocean shuts down at the end of the 21st century, which is an unusual result. The strong and abrupt reduction of the intensity of the thermohaline circulation implies significant mainly local modifications of sea ice and of the atmosphere. Cautions should be exercised to this projection. Firstly, LMD5-CLIO2 has deficiencies which probably influence the results. Secondly, modifications of the initial conditions could lead to another projection: such spectacular event not occurring or differences as to when it happens. Consequently, other ensemble simulations should been performed. Thirdly, the current simulation is too short to know if the reduction is temporary or not. Longer experiments are therefore required.

A new Earth system model of intermediate complexity, LOVECLIM, has been developed in order to study long-term future climate changes. In particular, LOVECLIM includes an interactive Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet model (AGISM) as well as an oceanic carbon cycle model (LOCH). Those climatic components can have a great impact on future climate. However, most studies investigating future climate changes do not take them into account. The few studies in recent literature assessing the impact of polar ice sheets on future climate draw very different conclusions, which shows the need for developing such a model. The aim of this study is to analyse the possible perturbations of climate induced by human activities over the next millennia. A particular attention is given to the evolution of the oceanic thermohaline circulation. A series of numerical simulations have been performed with LOVECLIM over the next millennia using various forcing scenarios. The global equilibrium warming computed by the model ranges from 0.55°C to 3.75°C with respect to preindustrial times. The model does not simulate a complete shut down of the oceanic thermohaline circulation but a transient weakening followed by a quasi-recovering at equilibrium. In most of the projections, the Greenland ice sheet undergoes a continuous reduction in volume, leading to an almost total disappearance in the most pessimistic scenarios. The impact of the Greenland deglaciation on climate has been assessed through sensitivity experiments. The removal of the Greenland ice sheet is responsible for a regional amplification of the global warming inducing a total melt of Arctic sea ice in summer. The freshwater flux from Greenland generates large salinity anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean that reduce the rate of North Atlantic Deep Water formation, slowing down the oceanic thermohaline circulation.

A new Earth system model of intermediate complexity, LOVECLIM, has been developed in order to study long-term future climate changes. In particular, LOVECLIM includes an interactive Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet model (AGISM) as well as an oceanic carbon cycle model (LOCH). Those climatic components can have a great impact on future climate. However, most studies investigating future climate changes do not take them into account. The few studies in recent literature assessing the impact of polar ice sheets on future climate draw very different conclusions, which shows the need for developing such a model. The aim of this study is to analyse the possible perturbations of climate induced by human activities over the next millennia. A particular attention is given to the evolution of the oceanic thermohaline circulation. A series of numerical simulations have been performed with LOVECLIM over the next millennia using various forcing scenarios. The global equilibrium warming computed by the model ranges from 0.55°C to 3.75°C with respect to preindustrial times. The model does not simulate a complete shut down of the oceanic thermohaline circulation but a transient weakening followed by a quasi-recovering at equilibrium. In most of the projections, the Greenland ice sheet undergoes a continuous reduction in volume, leading to an almost total disappearance in the most pessimistic scenarios. The impact of the Greenland deglaciation on climate has been assessed through sensitivity experiments. The removal of the Greenland ice sheet is responsible for a regional amplification of the global warming inducing a total melt of Arctic sea ice in summer. The freshwater flux from Greenland generates large salinity anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean that reduce the rate of North Atlantic Deep Water formation, slowing down the oceanic thermohaline circulation.

Geologic records and climate model simulations suggest that changes in the meridional heat transport in the Atlantic Ocean were involved in the abrupt warming events – the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger Interstadials (DOIs) – that punctuated an otherwise cold Greenland climate during the last glacial period. However, the role of Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice sheets in these events remains a subject of controversy. Here we report on the first attempt to combine quantitatively a paleo-temperature proxy with simplified ocean models, with the specific purpose of extracting information about the changes in mass balance of the NH ice sheets during the last glaciation. A Greenland paleotemperature record is combined with the climate models using Bayesian Stochastic Inversion (BSI) in order to estimate the changes that would be required to alter the Atlantic Ocean mass and heat transports between ~30 and 39 thousand years ago. The mean sea level changes implied by changes in NH ice sheet mass balance agree in amplitude and timing with reconstructions from the geologic record, which gives some support to the freshwater forcing hypothesis. Our results are unaffected by uncertainties in the representation of vertical buoyancy transport in the tropical ocean, in large part because the global adjustments to high latitude freshening bypass the tropics and affect sinking rate in the opposite pole. However, the solutions are sensitive to assumptions about physical processes at polar latitudes. We find that the inversion reproduces the gradual changes in sea level and Antarctic temperature inferred from the independent evidence provided by proxy records. The Greenland warm event lasting over 3000 years (DOI 8) can be explained by sustained growth of NH ice sheet and reduced supply of icebergs to the North Atlantic. Our results indicate a more involved role of the NH ice sheets than previously thought, in which both collapse and subsequent growth would be required to explain the full series of the long (> 3000 years) warm events recorded in Greenland ice. / text