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This work proposes a new method for using reduced order models in lieu of high fidelity analysis during the sensitivity analysis step of gradient based design optimization. The method offers a reduction in the computational cost of finite difference based sensitivity analysis in that context. The method relies on interpolating reduced order models which are based on proper orthogonal decomposition. The interpolation process is performed using radial basis functions and Grassmann manifold projection. It does not require additional high fidelity analyses to interpolate a reduced order model for new points in the design space. The interpolated models are used specifically for points in the finite difference stencil during sensitivity analysis. The proposed method is applied to an airfoil shape optimization (ASO) problem and a transport wing optimization (TWO) problem. The errors associated with the reduced order models themselves as well as the gradients calculated from them are evaluated. The effects of the method on the overall optimization path, computation times, and function counts are also examined. The ASO results indicate that the proposed scheme is a viable method for reducing the computational cost of these optimizations. They also indicate that the adaptive step is an effective method of improving interpolated gradient accuracy. The TWO results indicate that the interpolation accuracy can have a strong impact on optimization search direction.

As more information is brought into early stages of the design, more pressure is put on engineers to produce a reliable, high quality, and financially sustainable product. Unfortunately, requirements established at the beginning of a new project, and the environment that surrounds it, continue to change in some unpredictable ways. The risk of designing a system that may become obsolete during early stages of production is currently tackled by the use of robust design simulations, a method that allows to simultaneously explore a plethora of design alternatives and requirements with the intention of accounting for uncertain factors in the future. Whereas this design technique has proven to be quite an improvement in design methods, under certain conditions, it fails to consider the intrinsic value embedded in the system when certain design features are activated. This thesis introduces the concepts of adaptability and real options to manage risk foreseen in the face of uncertainty at early design stages. The method described herein allows decision-makers to foresee the financial impact of their decisions at the design level, as well as the exposure to risk. This thesis contains two relevant examples regarding the decision of introducing new technologies. First, the case study of Southwest Airlines, and the decision it took to retrofit blended winglets technology in its already delivered Boeing 737-700, is introduced to validate the proposed technique. In the second example, the manufacturer evaluates whether technologies should be included in a new aircraft engine design, left out, or offered as an option to retrofit in the future. This case demonstrates the benefits of each of these actions and the monetary value of offering retrofitting options as upgrades to the airlines when the value of the technology fluctuates considerably. The results obtained in both exercises show the benefits of real options analysis during the design process of aerospace systems. These include: a better management of design features over time, a better picture of uncertainty around future technology economics, a good understanding of adaptability value over time, and a consistent risk reduction with respect to alternatives in which flexibility was not embedded.

Les systèmes aérospatiaux sont des systèmes complexes dont la fiabilité doit être garantie dès la phase de conception au regard des coûts liés aux dégâts gravissimes qu’engendrerait la moindre défaillance. En outre, la prise en compte des incertitudes influant sur le comportement (incertitudes dites « aléatoires » car liées à la variabilité naturelle de certains phénomènes) et la modélisation de ces systèmes (incertitudes dites « épistémiques » car liées au manque de connaissance et aux choix de modélisation) permet d’estimer la fiabilité de tels systèmes et demeure un enjeu crucial en ingénierie. Ainsi, la quantification des incertitudes et sa méthodologie associée consiste, dans un premier temps, à modéliser puis propager ces incertitudes à travers le modèle numérique considéré comme une « boîte-noire ». Dès lors, le but est d’estimer une quantité d’intérêt fiabiliste telle qu’une probabilité de défaillance. Pour les systèmes hautement fiables, la probabilité de défaillance recherchée est très faible, et peut être très coûteuse à estimer. D’autre part, une analyse de sensibilité de la quantité d’intérêt vis-à-vis des incertitudes en entrée peut être réalisée afin de mieux identifier et hiérarchiser l’influence des différentes sources d’incertitudes. Ainsi, la modélisation probabiliste des variables d’entrée (incertitude épistémique) peut jouer un rôle prépondérant dans la valeur de la probabilité obtenue. Une analyse plus profonde de l’impact de ce type d’incertitude doit être menée afin de donner une plus grande confiance dans la fiabilité estimée. Cette thèse traite de la prise en compte de la méconnaissance du modèle probabiliste des entrées stochastiques du modèle. Dans un cadre probabiliste, un « double niveau » d’incertitudes (aléatoires/épistémiques) doit être modélisé puis propagé à travers l’ensemble des étapes de la méthodologie de quantification des incertitudes. Dans cette thèse, le traitement des incertitudes est effectué dans un cadre bayésien où la méconnaissance sur les paramètres de distribution des variables d‘entrée est caractérisée par une densité a priori. Dans un premier temps, après propagation du double niveau d’incertitudes, la probabilité de défaillance prédictive est utilisée comme mesure de substitution à la probabilité de défaillance classique. Dans un deuxième temps, une analyse de sensibilité locale à base de score functions de cette probabilité de défaillance prédictive vis-à-vis des hyper-paramètres de loi de probabilité des variables d’entrée est proposée. Enfin, une analyse de sensibilité globale à base d’indices de Sobol appliqués à la variable binaire qu’est l’indicatrice de défaillance est réalisée. L’ensemble des méthodes proposées dans cette thèse est appliqué à un cas industriel de retombée d’un étage de lanceur. / Aerospace systems are complex engineering systems for which reliability has to be guaranteed at an early design phase, especially regarding the potential tremendous damage and costs that could be induced by any failure. Moreover, the management of various sources of uncertainties, either impacting the behavior of systems (“aleatory” uncertainty due to natural variability of physical phenomena) and/or their modeling and simulation (“epistemic” uncertainty due to lack of knowledge and modeling choices) is a cornerstone for reliability assessment of those systems. Thus, uncertainty quantification and its underlying methodology consists in several phases. Firstly, one needs to model and propagate uncertainties through the computer model which is considered as a “black-box”. Secondly, a relevant quantity of interest regarding the goal of the study, e.g., a failure probability here, has to be estimated. For highly-safe systems, the failure probability which is sought is very low and may be costly-to-estimate. Thirdly, a sensitivity analysis of the quantity of interest can be set up in order to better identify and rank the influential sources of uncertainties in input. Therefore, the probabilistic modeling of input variables (epistemic uncertainty) might strongly influence the value of the failure probability estimate obtained during the reliability analysis. A deeper investigation about the robustness of the probability estimate regarding such a type of uncertainty has to be conducted. This thesis addresses the problem of taking probabilistic modeling uncertainty of the stochastic inputs into account. Within the probabilistic framework, a “bi-level” input uncertainty has to be modeled and propagated all along the different steps of the uncertainty quantification methodology. In this thesis, the uncertainties are modeled within a Bayesian framework in which the lack of knowledge about the distribution parameters is characterized by the choice of a prior probability density function. During a first phase, after the propagation of the bi-level input uncertainty, the predictive failure probability is estimated and used as the current reliability measure instead of the standard failure probability. Then, during a second phase, a local reliability-oriented sensitivity analysis based on the use of score functions is achieved to study the impact of hyper-parameterization of the prior on the predictive failure probability estimate. Finally, in a last step, a global reliability-oriented sensitivity analysis based on Sobol indices on the indicator function adapted to the bi-level input uncertainty is proposed. All the proposed methodologies are tested and challenged on a representative industrial aerospace test-case simulating the fallout of an expendable space launcher.