The Southern African Development Community (SADC) aims to have a regional central bank by 2016 and a common currency by 2018. The member states are at the early stages of the process of regional economic integration, having launched a free trade area in 2008. Monetary integration is an advanced stage of regional economic integration that requires progressive changes in the participating countries. The purpose of this study is to determine the feasibility of monetary integration within the SADC countries and hence, provide policy recommendations to guide the integration process. To accomplish this, the study analyses the extent to which the member states meet the criteria for an optimum currency area (OCA) as well as the degree to which their economies are converging. The study finds that the main macroeconomic objectives of SADC countries differ due to a difference in the relative importance of monetary policy instruments in member states, which influences each country’s commitment towards achieving the macroeconomic convergence targets and harmonising policies. A more appropriate approach to macroeconomic convergence would be to allow for variable speed, geometry and depth in each country as premature adherence to convergence targets could prevent a harmonisation of the economies in the future and possibly destabilise the union. In addition, the study investigates the importance and similarities of the monetary aggregate channel, the interest rate channel, the exchange rate channel and the credit channel in the transmission of monetary policy using VAR analysis. This is important when considering monetary integration because differences in transmission mechanisms can result in asymmetric behaviour between member states, which in turn will prevent harmonisation of their economies. The results of the analysis suggest that SADC member states display asymmetries in their responses to monetary policy shocks as well as the relative importance of transmission mechanisms. In addition, the results suggest that national monetary policy is generally inefficient in determining economic performance in the member states. Furthermore, the study finds that the failure to meet the OCA criteria implies that the SADC member states will respond asymmetrically to shocks within a monetary union. With no effective alternative adjustment mechanisms in place, the effects of the shocks will endure in union members and possibly widen existing cyclical variation. Hence, monetary integration would not result in harmonisation of the economies of member states. It is therefore, concluded that the SADC countries were not suitable for monetary integration at present.

Thesis (MTech (Business))--Peninsula Technikon, Cape Town, 2002 / South Africa has long been a part of the region although it may be a new comer to some institutions established. One of the reasons why SADC was established was to reduce economic dependence on South Africa. The latter has since its first democratic elections been integrated into the region of South African Development Community which comprises of 14 members. South Africa commands an economy three times the size of all SADC economies. It is believed that the economic spread effects from integration with the South African economy will act as an engine of growth in the region. The effect of South Africa's economic dominant role on other SADC member states is a concern. The study seeks to determine the extent to which South Africa can be of assistance to other member States given its own internal problems such a unemployment and poverty. South Africa has a major role to play in terms of stabilising the region and given the expectations from the international community. It has vested interest in the region as it exports more than it imports from the region. The region has potential for investment opportunities and that is made impossible by political instability and political intolerance in the region. The SADC is faced with a serious question whether a member state can enter in the internal affairs of another member state whose internal activities adversely affect the economy of that particular country and that of other member states.

In sub-Saharan African countries that have made democratic transition from military rule and military-backed authoritarian regimes, state elites have embarked upon strategies aimed at demilitarising the new democratic political process. Demilitarisation of the state and politics has become an imperative because it is decisive for consolidating democratic politics and for ensuring improvements in public safety and security. Yet the process of such demilitarisation in these countries has often generated a paradox, whereby the reduction of the political influence of state institutions of violence has been associatedw ith rising civil militarism and the prevalenceo f organised violence in the wider society. In these circumstances, taking cognisance of the dangers of civil militarism and other forms of private violence is a priority for designing and implementing demilitarisation strategies and other security reforms in post-authoritarian African states. Reformminded political elites and external supporters need to be sensitive to these dangers or risk perpetuating the shell of electoral democracy that cannot deliver the goal of human security in the region. This dissertation explored how the current approach to demilitarisation is related to the problem of civil militarism by examining the case studies of Nigeria and South Africa. It explains that given the condition of the state in Africa, demilitarisation of politics after transition from military or military-backed authoritarianism contributes to the emergence of civil militarism. Based on this finding, it argues for a comprehensive approach to demilitarisation as a strategy that caters to both state and societal violence in order to mitigate the risks of civil militarism in the process.

This study was prompted by the need to remedy the situation that existed with respect to the poor status of our knowledge regarding the ichthyoplankton assemblage of the nearshore region along the south-east Cape coast of South Africa. The first chapter provides a brief introduction to the field of ichthyoplankton research and includes a summary of the status of research in southern Africa and an explanation of early life history terminology. The selection of all sample sites, times and strategies is also outlined. The study area along the south-east Cape coast with respect to its location, climate and physical oceanography is described in the second chapter, as is the gear used, bongo nets and an RMT1x6. A sampling protocol for the use of bongos from a small ski-boat, and the RMT from the research vessels, and for the handling and processing of samples was established. The selection of Middlebank as the main monthly sampling site within the Tsitsikamma National Park (TNP) was based on taxonomic diversity as well as logistical and safety constraints. The effect of mesh size and time of sampling with bongo nets on the catchability of ichthyoplankton was investigated in chapter three. Most data was accumulated during Sea Fisheries research cruises, with additional collections coming from the National Parks vessel. Although the differences were not significant, the 505 μ mesh nets captured larger larvae, with catches comprising higher percentages of flexion and postflexion larvae. Larval concentration and size were consistently greater in samples from periods of reduced light intensity, but significant differences were the exception. It was decided that sampling with 505 μ mesh nets during daylight would provide a representative sample of the available ichthyoplankton assemblage, while at the same time being the most practical and least time consuming with respect to handling, clogging and backflushing. In chapter four, the early life history stages of thiny of the seventy-five taxa sampled are described, reflecting the paucity of information which existed on the ichthyoplankton of the nearshore zone in the south-east Cape. These descriptions are seen as an important contribution towards any future research efforts in the region, but as many of these descriptions are based on few or single specimens, it is realised that the description of egg and larval stages will be an ongoing process. Based upon the data collected during this study, an ichthyoplankton species checklist was established in chapter five. Seventy-five taxa of fish larvae were identified to either family, genus or species level. A number of squid para-larvae were also encountered. Similarities and discrepancies with a previous survey in the region are presented. The temporal distribution of eggs and larvae between August 1993 and October 1996 was established, and the spatial distribution of ichthyoplankton along an offshore transect was determined between January 1995 and May 1996. Only 7 species from Middlebank and twelve from all stations combined displayed seasonal trends, with most of these being prevalent during winter months. Egg production, both over Middlebank and from all stations combined, appeared to be consistent, with no seasonal trends. Based upon the results from the offshore transect samples, it would appear that a single ichthyoplankton assemblage exists from Storms River out to fifteen nautical miles. Although a variety of statistical methods were applied to the data during this study, low egg and larval concentrations and a low sampling frequency meant that results had to be interpreted carefully. Chapter six describes the preliminary investigation into the vertical distribution of eggs and larvae. During two research cruises, discrete depth sampling using an RMT1x6 net was performed, with the majority of samples being accompanied by physical data provided by a CTD rosette sampler. No definite patterns could be seen as larval concentrations were low, and the short time scale did not allow for the identification of any diel migratory patterns. The relationship between total larvae and the physical environment was poor. The only possible relationship was that between plankton volume and total egg and total larval concentrations. The TNP may play an important role in the conservation of reef fish and the seeding of nearby fishing grounds through the export of pelagic eggs and larvae. Chapter seven describes a preliminary investigation into the dispersal potential of ichthyoplankton from the TNP. Based upon longshore currents determined from drogues, ADCP vectors and current meter readings, it was clear that if larvae were passive drifters, the potential for their dispersal from the TNP did exist. This pilot study showed that future work should concentrate not only on the oceanographic aspects, but on behavioural aspects of larvae which may enhance or retard dispersal. In the final discussion, it is emphasised that while this study went a long way to increasing our knowledge of the nearshore ichthyoplankton community, the true picture of the temporal and spatial dynamics of the species assemblage may only be revealed once more intensive sampling has been performed. The resolution of the early life history stages of the sparids and the identification of eggs to species level are seen as priorities for the near future. A complete species checklist for the TNP is provided based upon previous surveys (both on adult and larval fishes), this work and personal observations. A total of 171 species of fish from 70 families were identified, illustrating that the eggs and larvae of many species in the TNP have yet to be sampled. A brief description of the collaborative effort which is envisaged for the TNP over the next few years is provided.

The current implementation of a free trade area in SADC has given rise to concerns that the present location of industry in the region will be adversely affected. Specifically, many of the smaller and less-developed countries fear that this change will result in a loss of their industry towards the more developed members, and particularly towards South Africa. This study uses the framework of the new economic geography to address these concerns. The new economic geography is a body of theory that has arisen in the last decade and allows for a dynamic analysis of the process of regional integration. Studies of such dynamic effects in the developing country context are exceedingly scarce, and particularly so in southern Africa. Another area of little research is in the comparison of the evolving industrial structure of different regional blocs. Thus, in response to this gap in the literature and in order to address the concerns of polarisation of industry within the SADC region, a two-pronged empirical approach is taken. The study first conducts a review of the spatial distribution of industry within SADC from 1970 to 1999. This is achieved through the calculation and examination of industrial locational Gini coefficients, measuring the relative degree of concentration of 28 ISIC (rev 2) industries for the years 1970, 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995 and 1999. Secondly, an empirical comparison is conducted with other blocs that are in the process of deepening regional integration, namely the European Union and Mercosur. Again, this is done through the calculation of locational Gini coefficients for individual industries for all three blocs at five year intervals from 1980 to 1995, and then for 1999. The average level of concentration within SADC is found to increase steadily from 1970 to 1990. Between 1990 and 1995, the level of concentration increases further, but at a lower rate, and, by 1999 industry begins to disperse. The Gini coefficient is a relative measure, and thus does not measure the absolute level of concentration. Thus, much of the increase in concentration seen is towards peripheral countries. To further interpret the Gini, the changes in concentration are compared to the absolute changes in manufacturing employment in South Africa. From this analysis, eight of the 28 industries analysed show particular tendencies to concentrate in the periphery. These are beverages, textiles, wearing apparel, paper and products, rubber products, other non-metallic mineral products, transport equipment, and professional and scientific equipment. Likewise, another six industries become more concentrated in South Africa over this time, namely food products, printing and publishing, industrial chemicals, petroleum refineries, miscellaneous petroleum and coal products, and electrical machinery. According to the Gini coefficient, the tobacco industry is by far the most concentrated, while the wood products industry is the most dispersed. It is also found that scale-intensive industries tend to be among the most concentrated. In the cross-bloc comparison, Mercosur has the lowest level of aggregate concentration with an average Gini of 0.08 in 1999. This compares with Ginis of 0.28 for the EU, and 0.22 for SADC. The EU has the largest increase in concentration over the period, while the concentration in Mercosur falls during the 1980s, increases in the mid 1990s and then falls again by 1999. A common theme, however, between all three blocs is a trend towards dispersion in the late 1990s. This is particularly apparent in SADC and Mercosur where the Gini decreases in value, while in the EU, the Gini only increases marginally in this period. Other studies of the EU have indicated that industry was starting to disperse at this time. This finding would be more apparent at a greater level of industrial disaggregation. The following industries are found to be agglomerated above the average level in all three blocs: tobacco, miscellaneous petroleum and coal products, and pottery china and earthenware. Conversely, transport equipment, paper and products, machinery except electrical, plastic products, rubber products, and fabricated metal products tend to be more dispersed across all three. Perhaps more interesting is that there appears to be some commonality between industries that become more agglomerated across all three blocs, while industries that dispersed tend to be region specific. The industries that show universal agglomeration tendencies are the highly sensitive wearing apparel and textiles industries, in addition to industrial chemicals, printing and publishing, iron and steel, and plastic products. In relation to SADC, the first two of these industries show an increased concentration in the periphery, as in the EU, while the remaining industries show tendencies to concentrate in the core. The new economic geography predicts that, as the presently high levels of transport costs begin to fall in SADC, industry will tend to concentrate in the core. However, the results of this study indicate that the effect on manufacturing is, to a large extent, sector specific, with some manufacturing industries concentrating in the core and others in the periphery. The study therefore concludes that the mass polarization of industry from the smaller countries in SADC towards South Africa is unlikely to occur with the further reduction in trade costs. Although certain industries may be attracted towards the core, the high degree of wage disparity in the region and present trade concessions from developed markets overseas towards the peripheral countries, will make these countries an attractive location, particularly for export orientated firms. Two main policy recommendations result from the study. Firstly, individual countries in SADC need to promote those industries that show concentration tendencies in their country. Secondly, in order for the periphery to maximize their gain from the free trade area, transport costs within the region need to be reduced rapidly and effectively.

Extensive research has been done on the relationship between financial development (FD) and growth (with the main focus on economic growth). Theoretical models and most of the conclusions reached stipulate that the development of a financial system is one of the essential ingredients for economic growth. A developed financial system is able to provide financial services efficiently to the real sector. This study examines the relationship between FD and manufacturing sector growth of the SACU countries. The study first reviews the theoretical and empirical literature of FD and growth (economic and manufacturing sector). This gives a full understanding of the topic before attempting to empirically study it. It also helps in the selection process of the model and variables to be employed in the study. A balanced panel for four SACU countries, namely Botswana, Lesotho, RSA and Swaziland, for the period 1976 to 2008 was estimated using Zellner‟s Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimation (SURE) method. Namibia was omitted because of limited data. The SURE model was selected because it performs better than ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation of individual equations in cases where the countries studied can be affected by similar external shocks because they are in the same economic region and also have country specific structural differences which could affect their economic growth. Two measures of FD were used: credit to the private sector provided by commercial banks (FIC) and the ratio of liquid liabilities of commercial banks to GDP (LL). Manufacturing sector growth was measured by manufacturing value added to GDP. The results of the relationship between manufacturing growth and FD were very weak across the countries. The model that used FIC performed better, there was a negative significant relationship found in RSA and Swaziland, while with the model that used LL, all the countries gave an insignificant relationship. The results for Swaziland were very consistent with the past findings of the relationship between FD and economic growth in the country (for example Aziakpono (2005a)). This may be because of the high share of the manufacturing sector in GDP. Theory suggests that a well-developed financial system will have a positive impact on growth, but this was not the case in RSA and Botswana, where in some cases FD had a negative impact on the growth of the sector. The analysis of the countries‟ manufacturing sector development shows that the sector plays an important role in the economies of the SACU countries, especially in terms of employment and exports. The coefficients of trade openness are generally positive, though not significant in some cases. The other control variables gave mixed results across the counties and across the models. Based on the findings, the countries have to develop strategies that will improve entrepreneurial skills. Also the financial development in the small SACU countries is essential in order for all the sectors in the economy to benefit from the financial sector and in turn increase economic growth.

Review of literature shows that rocks of all ages from the Archaean to the early Phanerozoic host pegmatite-based mineralisation in the central and southern region of the African continent. The greatest concentrations occur in the Archaean and late Proterozoic orogenic belts, while early to middle Proterozoic granites do not, in general, host mineralisation. Pan-African mineralisation is present, but is not widespread. Some deposits previously considered to be of Pan-African have been shown to be of Proterozoic age. In common with occurrences of other regions, the deposits are closely associated with small, late- to post-tectonic granites. Therefore, preliminary assessment of the potential of granites as sources of pegmatite mineralisation should utilise satellite data or aerial photographs. The granites also tend to be alkaline and peraluminous. Thus, in the next stage, chemical analysis for selected major and trace elements should be conducted directly on granites if they occur as small plutons. For large granitic batholiths or terranes, preliminary stream-sediment surveys may be necessary to reduce the size of the target area. Subsequently, pegmatite zonation around suitable granites should be assessed as it allows attention to be focussed on areas likely to host the specific type of mineralisation being explored for.

This study attempted to characterise 5 field stocks of B. canis, collected from various geographic areas of southern Africa in terms of pathogenicity, immune response, cross resistance and antigenic composition. This was done by means of artificial infection of two to four year old Beagle dogs. Serological tests included indirect fluorescent antibody tests, polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis , Western blotting of B. canis antigen and immune serum transfers. The ZIM1, GHT1 , QTN1 and DBN1 stocks were found to be virulent and the JHB1 stock, which might be a cardiac form of babesiosis, was found to be highly virulent. Immune responses of dogs to primary challenges were poor. A second challenge or relapse was important in the development of a resistant immunity. Heterologous challenges showed that dogs which were immune to the ZIM1, QTN1 and DBN1 stocks were partially immune to the JHB1 stock. The dog that was immune to the GHT1 stock was the only one that was totally resistant to the JHB1 stock. Western blots revealed interstock antigenic variation between the JHB1 and the other four stocks. These differences were, however, not great enough to separate the stocks taxonomically.

The re-acceptance of South Africa into the international community has cleared the path for the closer integration of South Africa with its neighbours in a broader southern African regional union. In particular, the countries of the Southern African Development Community {SADC), which South Africa joined in August 1994, have committed themselves to the formation of a free trade area (FTA) over an eight-year period. The most likely impediment to this process is the perception of a highly unequal distribution of the economic gains and losses of such an arrangement. This reflects the particular context of SADC: one of a comparatively undeveloped region, dominated by a relatively large, more industrially advanced country, which is itself small by international standards. The essential question with which this study is concerned, therefore, is whether, despite the existing inequalities in the region, a FTA among SADC members could be mutually beneficial to South Africa and its partners. The thesis applies orthodox and new trade theory to the analysis of economic integration among unequal partners. Using the theoretical analysis, and with reference to empirical studies of such experience elsewhere in the world, it attempts to provide an assessment of the existing body of literature on the possible effects of a SADC FTA. In the light of this discussion, and from its own preliminary empirical analysis of the possible pattern of inter-sectoral versus intra-sectoral specialisation which may result on union, the study suggests ways in which a fuller evaluation of the welfare implications of a southern African FTA may be achieved. The thesis argues that the orthodox theory based on perfect competition provides an insufficient framework for the analysis of the likely effects of a SADC FT A. It finds that, firstly, in an alternative analytical framework which retains the assumption of perfect competition, there may be other criteria for judging the success of a regional union that are neglected by orthodoxy, particularly in the case of developing countries. Secondly, the new trade theory based on imperfect competition and product differentiation provides useful insights into the possible effects of a regional union among countries at unequal levels of development. The formal extension of this body of literature to the theory of economic integration is clearly called for. It is found, however, that neither orthodox customs union theory, nor its suggested alternatives and extensions, enable one to conclude, a priori, that the formation of a FTA in the southern African region could not be beneficial to both South Africa and its smaller partners. Further, the present empirical studies on SADC do not take account of the full range of factors necessary for a complete welfare assessment of the possible effects. Since the outcome of integration depends on the empirical circumstances of the particular case, and since the information necessary for a comprehensive welfare evaluation is not currently available, the study concludes that the countries of the region have committed themselves to a FTA without any definite knowledge of its likely effects.

Please read the abstract in the 00front part of this document / Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2006. / Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology / MSc / Unrestricted