Tropical cyclones claim a huge number of lives and cause substantial damage to property and crops in many regions each year. Southern Africa is no exception. This makes the process of forecasting tropical cyclones of great importance to the region’s economy and to public safety. Skillful seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity could be used to warn the communities affected by tropical cyclones of the likely occurrence of such systems ahead of the cyclone season. This could result in reduced damage and fatalities associated with such systems. Both statistical and dynamical techniques have been employed in an attempt to predict tropical cyclone activity on a seasonal time scale over a number of ocean basins. The skills of such techniques vary from one technique to another and from one basin to another. This study investigates the predictability of tropical cyclone activity on a seasonal time scale over the southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) by nesting a regional climate model (RCM), the RegCM3 within a coarse-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), the ECHAM4.5. The national meteorological centres of most southern African countries do not have the required dedicated computational resources to run the high-resolution GCMs that are suitable to predict these systems operationally. However, these systems can be very devastating on the southern African region and need to be predicted on various time scales, including the seasonal time scale. Therefore, it is instructive that research be done to better our understanding of these systems and their predictability using physical models. This study examines the simulations of the genesis locations and the number of tropical cyclones produced in RCM integrations nested within an AGCM forced by observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The season of interest is the mid-summer period of December to February. Four members of the AGCM generated at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) are used to force the RCM. Four-month integrations over a 10-year period (1991/92-2000/01) are performed. An objective procedure for detecting model-generated tropical cyclones is applied to this ensemble. Some characteristics of the simulated cyclones are compared with the observations. In addition, some statistical techniques are employed to evaluate the capability of the RCM to reproduce some aspects of the observed tropical cyclones during the aforementioned period. The results show that there is a good agreement between two of the simulated and observed environmental variables that influence tropical cyclone formation, viz. vertical wind shear and relative vorticity. In particular, the simulated and observed vertical wind shear show a similar pattern in most parts of the model domain. With regards to the relative vorticity, the highest agreement is found in the Mozambique Channel and in the region east of Madagascar. In addition, there is an appreciable agreement between the simulated and observed tropical cyclone characteristics such as tropical cyclone genesis locations and frequency. The model also simulated the interannual variability in the tropical cyclone frequency skillfully. AFRIKAANS : Tropiese siklone is verantwoordelik vir ‘n goot aantal sterftes en veroorsaak beduidende skade aan eindom asook oeste oor etlike areas elke jaar. Suidelike Afrika is nie ‘n uitsondering nie. Hierdie verliese maak die voorspelling van tropiese siklone van groot belang vir die gebied se ekonomie asook vir publieke veiligheid. Vaardige seisoenale voorspelling van tropiese sikloon aktiwiteit kan gebruik word om gemeenskappe wat onderhewig is aan die invloed van tropiese siklone te waarsku oor die kans vir sulke sisteme om voor te kom voordat die tropiese sikloon seisoen ‘n aanvang neem. Vroegtydige waarskuwings kan tot gevolg hê dat daar minder verwant skade en laer sterftes is. Beide statistiese en dinamiese tegnieke is al in die verlede gebruik om tropiese sikloon aktiwiteit oor verskeie oseaankomme op ‘n seisoenale tydskaal te probeer voorspel. Die vaardigheid van hierdie tegnieke hang af van die tipe tegniek wat gebruik word asook watter oseaankom beskou word. Hierdie studie ondersoek die voorspelbaarheid van tropies sikloon aktiwiteit op ‘n seisoenale tydskaal oor die suid-westelike Indiese Oseaan deur gebruik te maak van ‘n streeksmodel, die RegCM3, genes in ‘n growwe-resolusie algemene sirkulasie model van die atmosfeer, die ECHAM4.5. Die nasionale weerdienste van die meerderheid Suider-Afrikaanse lande beskik nie oor die nodige rekenaars om geskikte hoë-resolusie algemene sirkulasie modelle te loop om sodanige sisteme mee operasioneel te voorspel nie. Desnieteenstaande kan hierdie tropiese sisteme verwoestend wees en daarom behoort hulle voorspel te word op verskeie tydskale, insluitende seisoenale tydskale. Dit sal dus insiggewend wees om navorsing te doen om sodoende ons begrip oor hierdie sisteme en hul voorspelbaarheid te verbeter deur gebruik te maak van fisiese modelle. Hierdie studie gaan ondersoek instel oor die simulasie van tropiese siklone oor hul ontwikkelingsgebiede en die aantal tropiese siklone wat ‘n streeksmodel, genes in ‘n algemen sirkulasie model van die atmosfeer wat geforseer word deur waargeneemde see-oppervlak temperature, kan produseer. Die seisoen van belang is die mid-somer periode van Desember tot Februarie. Vier ensemble lede afkomstig vanaf die algemene sirkulasie model wat geloop is by die International Research Institute for Climate and Society word gebruik om die streeksmodel mee te forseer. Model integrasies word oor ‘n 4-maand periode gedoen en vir ‘n 10-jaar tydperk (1991/92-2000/01). ‘n Objektiewe vorteks opsporingsprosedure word dan toegepas op die 4-lid ensemble om model-geskepte tropiese siklone te identifiseer. Sommige van die karakteristieke van die gesimuleerde siklone word dan vergelyk met die waargeneemde tropiese stelsels. Hiermee saam word statisiese tegnieke ingespan vir die genoemde tydperk om die vermoë van die streeksmodel te ondersoek om sekere aspekte van waargeneemde storms te herproduseer. Die resultate wys dat daar ‘n goeie ooreenkoms is tussen twee van die gesimuleerde en waargeneemde omgewingsveranderlikes wat tropiese sikloon ontwikkeling beinvloed, nl, vertikale windskuiwing en relatiewe vortisiteit. In besonder het die gesimuleerde en waargeneemde vertikale windskuiwing ooreenstemmende patrone gelewer oor die grootste gedeelte van die streeks model-area. Wat relatiewe vortisiteit betref, is die beste ooreenkoms oor die Mosambiek kanaal en in die gebied oos van Madagaskar gevind. Verder is daar ‘n sterk ooreenkoms tussen die gesimuleerde en waargeneemde tropiese sikloon karakteristieke soos by die tropiese siklone se ontwikkelingsgebiede asook hul frekwensie. Die model he took daarin geslaag om die inter-jaarlikse veranderlikheid van tropiese sikloon frekwensie suksesvol te simuleer. / Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2010. / Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology / MSc / Unrestricted

South Africa has the highest prevalence of Foetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders (FASD) worldwide. Despite the high prevalence of FASD in children and the resulting need for services, appropriate identification and management of most genetic and congenital disorders are critically lacking in South Africa. As a result of the established risk for communication delay from birth, young children with FASD need early communication intervention (ECI). There appears to be a dearth in research on the communication difficulties of local young children with FASD. Determining comprehensive communication profiles of young children may serve to emphasize their need for ECI. The main aim of the study was to present the distinctive communication profiles of a group of young children with FASD. The sub-aims entailed the description of their developmental histories, family/care-giving contexts, communication functioning and identifying developmental trends across the participants. A collective case study design following a quantitative approach was selected. The study was cross-sectional and descriptive statistics was used to describe the participants’ communication skills. A purposive sampling procedure was utilized as a limited number of participants could be found with a diagnosis of FASD. Five participants diagnosed with FASD, living in the Gauteng area, between the ages of 4 to 58 months took part in the study. The empirical study comprised of two phases. Phase 1 entailed the development of the Interview Schedule, the Assessment Protocol and the conduction of a pilot study. Phase 2 comprised the data collection, analysis and interpretation of results. The results of the study indicated that all five participants presented with incomplete case histories obtained from the foster parents and general developmental delays. According to the Four-Level Early Communication Assessment Framework the greatest delays included all aspects of communication skills. A developmental trend of the combined communication profiles of the participants indicated an increase in delay with an increase in chronological age. The participants presented with complex multiple neuro-developmental needs to be viewed within a developmental systems and ecological framework. Based on the results of this study the diverse roles of the speech-language therapist working with young children with FASD and their families were identified. A framework for interdisciplinary service delivery to this population was suggested. The study succeeded in the attempt to provide a comprehensive, in-depth description of a group of the five participants’ unique communication skills. In addition the study also highlighted the shortage of services, e.g. limited early identification and services dedicated to families affected by alcohol related problems. The study is of value to the speech-language therapist in the clinical and research domain. Future research is recommended to expand and support the findings. AFRIKAANS : Suid-Afrika vertoon die hoogste prevalensie van Fetale Alkohol Spektrumafwykings (FAS) wêreldwyd. Ten spyte van die hoë prevalensie van FAS in kinders en die voortspruitende behoefte aan dienste, is toepaslike identifikasie en hantering van die meeste genetiese en kongenitale afwykings in Suid-Afrika krities ontoereikend. As ‘n resultaat van die bevestigde risiko vir kommunikasie agterstand vanaf geboorte, benodig jong kinders met FAS vroëe kommunikasie intervensie (VKI). Daar blyk ‘n gaping in die navorsing aangaande die kommunikasie probleme van plaaslike jong kinders met FAS te wees. Omvattende kommunikasie profiele van jong kinders met FAS kan die behoefte aan VKI dienste beklemtoon. Die hoofdoel van die studie was om die kommunikasie profiele van ‘n groep jong kinders met FAS voor te lê. Die sub-doelwitte het die beskrywing van hulle ontwikkelings geskiedenis, gesin/sorggewer konteks, kommunikasie funksionering en die identifisering van ontwikkelings neigings in al die deelnemers behels. ‘n Saamgestelde gevallestudie is geselekteer volgens ‘n kwantitatiewe navorsings benadering. Die studie is ‘n kruisdeursnee ontwerp en beskrywende statistieke is gebruik om die deelnemers se kommunikasie vaardighede te beskryf. ‘n Doelgerigte steekproef prosedure is gebruik omdat ‘n beperkte aantal deelnemers met ‘n diagnose van FAS gevind kon word. Die vyf deelnemers wat geselekteer was vir die steekproef was gediagnoseer met FAS, woonagtig in die Gauteng area en het binne die 0 – 5 jaar ouderdomsgroep geval. Die empiriese studie het uit twee fases bestaan. Fase 1 het die ontwikkeling van die onderhoud skedule, die assesserings protokol en die uitvoering van ‘n loodsstudie ingesluit. Fase 2 het die data insameling, analise en interpretasie van resultate behels. Die resultate van die studie het aangedui dat al die deelnemers gepresenteer het met onvolledige gevalsgeskiedenisse wat van hul pleegouers verkry is en ‘n algemene ontwikkelings agterstand. Volgens die Vier-Vlak Vroëe Kommunikasie Assesserings Raamwerk het die grootste agterstande alle aspekte van kommunikasie vaardighede behels. ‘n Ontwikkelings neiging vanuit die gekombineerde kommunikasie profiele van die deelnemers het ‘n toename in agterstand met ‘n toename in kronologiese ouderdom aangedui. Die deelnemers presenteer met veelvuldige neuro-ontwikkelings behoeftes wat binne die ontwikkelings sisteem en ekologiese raamwerk beskou moet word. Gebasseer op die resultate is die diverse rolle van die spraak-taalterapeut wat met jong kinders met FAS en hulle families werk, geïdentifiseer. ‘n Raamwerk vir interdissiplinêre dienslewering aan hierdie populasie word voorgestel. Die studie het geslaag in die poging om ‘n omvattende, in-diepte beskrywing van die deelnemers se unieke kommunikasie vaardighede te verskaf. Addisioneel het die studie ook die tekort aan dienste, naamlik beperkte vroëe identifikasie en dienste toegewy aan families geaffekteer deur alkohol verwante probleme, uitgelig. Die studie is van waarde vir die spraak-taalterapeut in die kliniese en navorsings domein. Toekomstige navorsing vir die uitbreiding en ondersteuning van die studie se bevindinge word aanbeveel. / Dissertation (MCommunication Pathology)--University of Pretoria, 2011. / Speech-Language Pathology and Audiology / Unrestricted

The goal of this diploma thesis is to analyse the trend of foreign direct investment into mining industry in Africa. In this thesis, I focus solemnly on the extraction of minerals, excluding the oil and gas industry. The analysis looks at the FDI from a historical perspective in the new millennium up to the current situation, which is characteristic for low commodity prices, which subsequently depress the activities of mining corporations. Furthermore, the important part of the thesis is also the projection of future development of FDI, the analysis of the correlation between commodity prices and FDI development and the research of African investment environment. A brief case study regarding the real-life foreign direct investment into copper mining projects in Democratic Republic of the Congo is carried out in the end of this thesis. In this case study I present details about this project, however, also the professional opinion of co-head of mining division at Trafigura, Emmanuel Henry, on the investment environment in Africa in regard to the mining industry and his feelings about the future development of the investment.

HIV/AIDS is a real threat for Sub-Saharan Countries. It increased adult mortality substantially. HIV/AIDS pandemic causes the death of the most productive part of affected population. Human capital passing on to future generations is limited. Low economic performance and income inequality induce higher HIV vulnerability. Contra wise HIV/AIDS has significant negative effect on the welfare of affected population. The sources of pandemic in Sub-Saharan Africa are not only social and cultural. Health and nutrition situation play considerable role. Holistic approach based on education, fidelity, abstinence and improvement of economic situation and moderate condom use (as the last way of prevention) seems to be an effective way of pandemic elimination.

This thesis deals with colonial legacies in West Africa. The aim is to analyze British and French colonial legacies in West African political systems. Methodology is based on comparative analysis on four levels, namely: international system, state, civil society and political leaders. The first analytical part deals with comparison of British and French colonial rule in West Africa. The second part focuses on colonial legacies in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire.

This thesis deals with motives of the South Africa's inclusion to BRIC countries and examines the impact of this inclusion on South Africa. It explores the question whether South Africa "deserves" the inclusion to BRIC countries and what characteristics connect it with these economies. The thesis also analyzes the BRICS bloc, the current situation in these economies, their cooperation and performing on the global scene.

This thesis studies the identification and analysis of the impact of the latest economic crisis of 2008 on selected countries of the world with the purpose of identifying the relevance of channels through which the financial and economic crisis has spread to these countries. The thesis focuses on two regions of the world: Africa and Latin America. In both of these regions two countries are chosen to be analyzed more closely. These are Nigeria and Malawi for Africa, Brazil for South America and Belize for Central America. The possible channels of transmission of the crisis were identified to be private capital flows, international trade and commodity prices, remittances and international aid. In the analysis of the chosen countries, it was identified that the most important channels were international trade, commodity prices and capital flows. On the other hand the least impactful channels were remittances and international aid. These were rather stable during the crisis and in the case of aid even played a countercyclical role.

This thesis aims to assess the impacts of public loans granted by the OPEC Fund for International Development in the energy sector in selected African countries. The assessment is based on the methods of analysis and comparison of technical and macroeconomic indicators. The work is divided into four chapters. The first chapter describes the OPEC Fund for International Development and explains the methods of granting loans by this organization. The second chapter presents four energy projects in African countries, to which the organization provided loans. These are projects in Sudan, Sierra Leone, Egypt and Djibouti. The third chapter examines the impact of these projects on the economies of these countries after their completion. The fourth chapter first assesses the impacts of individual projects and compares them with each other. At the conclusion of this chapter are given recommendations for effective lending to the energy sector in selected African countries.

The thesis focuses on China's economic diplomacy in Africa. The theoretical part deals with the concept of economic security (as a part of soft security) and economic diplomacy (as a way how to secure economic security). Africa is just one of many areas where China is engaged. The objective of the thesis is to identify the particular policies of China's economic diplomacy. The thesis is divided into four parts. The first part deals with the theoretical concepts, the second part with the energy security and policy in China. The third part deals with the individual areas of cooperation between China and Africa and China's main principles of cooperation. The main areas are international trade, foreign direct investment and foreign aid. The last part describes the Chinese cooperation with two particular countries -- Angola and Sudan.

This thesis is an analysis of the bi-lateral relations between Peoples Republic of China and Federal Republic of Nigeria and the relations between Peoples Public of China and Republic of Sudan. The thesis will explain the changes with the international relationships that have occured over time caused by the evolving position of, not only China, but also Sudan and Nigeria. The thesis defines economic, political and security dimension of international relations and their advances connected with the development of international community. Furthermore, it analyses the position of Sudan and Nigeria in international relations, the evolution of their bi-lateral relations with China and the current state of those relations, where the thesis applies the phenomena defined in the first chapter. In conclusion, it compares the similarities and differences between the relations of China and Nigeria and China and Sudan to find the answer to the question, whether the international position of the both Nigeria and Sudan have an influence on Chinese foreign policy towards them.