Turkey moves towards integration with EU since 1963. The membership will involve full liberalization of trade in agricultural products with EU. The impact of liberalization depends on the path of agricultural policies in Turkey and the EU. On the other hand, agricultural protection continues to be the most controversial issue in global trade negotiations of World Trade Organization (WTO). To evaluate the impacts of policy scenarios, an economic modeling approach based on non-linear mathematical programming is appropriate. This thesis analyzes the impacts of economic integration with the EU and the potential effects of the application of a new WTO agreement in 2015 on Turkish agriculture using an agricultural sector model. The basic approach is Maximum Entropy based Positive Mathematical Programming of Heckelei and Britz (1999). The model is based on a static optimization algorithm. Following an economic integration with EU, the net export of crops declines and can not tolerate the boom in net import of livestock products. Overall welfare affect is small. Consumers benefit from declining prices. Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) supports are determinative for the welfare of producers. WTO simulation shows that a 15 percent reduction in Turkey&rsquo / s binding WTO tariff commitments will increase net meat imports by USD 250 million.

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Agriculture causes large parts of global Greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE), with livestock contributing the greatest share. Livestock-based foods are thus associated to higher GHGE than plant-based foods. Additionally, they are harmful to health when consumed in excess. The focus of this work lies on determining the potential to reduce agricultural GHGE when healthy diets and lower meat intakes were adopted in the EU. lt is also examined how much feed crops and pastures would become available for the production of biofuels. An emission tax and an emission trading system are also examined. To assess the complex interactions in the agricultural sector, a modified version of the European Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (EUFASOM) is used. The results show that a halved meat intake could reduce agricultural GHGE by a quarter and biofuel production could increase eightfold. The political instruments lack effectiveness though. The GHG tax has a low impact on nutrition and roughly 50% emission leakage. Emission trading has only a moderate effect on nutrition and over 100% emission leakage.:1 Introduction 2 Goal and scope definition 3 Methodology 3.1 Overview 3.2 Spatial resolution 3.3 Products under consideration 3.4 Base data 3.4.1 Base quantities 3.4.2 Base prices 3.4.3 Base areas 3.4.4 Demand elasticities 3.5 Production processes 3.5.1 Crop production 3.5.2 Pasture production 3.5.3 Plant oil production 3.5.4 Biofuel production 3.5.5 Sugar production 3.5.6 Livestock production 3.6 EUFASOM – Theoretical foundation 3.7 EUFASOM – Demand and supply functions 3.8 EUFASOM – Model description 3.8.1 Objective function 3.8.2 Identity and convexity constraints 3.8.3 Product balance 3.8.4 Land use restrictions 3.8.5 Nitrogen balance 3.8.6 Further accounting equations 3.9 Calibration 3.10 Integration of scenarios 4 Scenarios and results 4.1 Scenario 1: Technical potential of healthy diets 4.1.1 What are healthy diets? 4.1.2 Implementation of healthy diets 4.1.3 Scenario 1.1: Healthy diets with constant calorie intake 4.1.4 Scenario 1.2: Healthy diets with restricted calorie intake 4.1.5 Scenario 1.3: Healthy diets with restricted ruminant meat intake 4.1.6 Discussion on the potentials of healthy diets 4.2 Scenario 2: Greenhouse gas emission taxes 4.3 Scenario 3: Redistribution of emissions taxes as biofuel subsidy 4.4 Scenario 4: Emissions trading scheme for agriculture 4.4.1 Scenario 4.1: GHGE-cap on agricultural production 4.4.2 Scenario 4.2: Combined GHGE-cap on agricultural production and net-imports 4.4.3 Scenario 4.3: GHGE-cap on agricultural production and generation of allowances through producing biofuels 4.4.4 Scenario 4.4: GHGE-cap on agricultural production and imports and generation of allowances through producing biofuels 4.4.5 Discussion on ETS 5 Summary and conclusion References List of Figures List of Tables List of Abbreviations Annex 1 Base Solution Annex 2 Process parameters and associated information Annex 3 Lists of model variables, process parameters, equations and sets Annex 4 Demand elasticities Annex 5 Derivation of specific energy and protein demand of livestock Annex 6 Further assumptions for the livestock sectors