Abstract: This thesis addresses the problem of graceful degradation for air traffic management systems (ATMS). The graceful degradation is the process by which the safety of the airspace is ensured in the event of failures or operational degradation in the system. After listing the main areas where failures and degradation can affect the ATMS, an ontology of the ATMS is proposed. The ontology allows to introduce failures at different levels, track their propagation throughout the system, and measure their operational impact. Then, two operational degradations are studied: The first degradation studied is a reduction in the landing capacity at San Francisco International Airport. The aircraft queueing process for terminal area is modeled and optimized to ensure a graceful degradation. The second degradation encompasses Communication, Navigation and Surveillance systems failures. The graceful degradation is ensured by increasing the spacing distance between aircraft, using novel algorithms of avoidance under uncertainties. Those algorithm also serve as probes to compare the degradation capabilities of different traffic configurations such as Miles-In-Trail and Free-Flight arrivals. Finally, this thesis focuses on monitoring the airspace for potential degradation. The ability and the difficulty of en-route traffic configuration are evaluated using degradation maps. Those maps can be used controller to rapidly and efficiently steer traffic from nominal mode of operations to mode of operations under abnormal conditions. Finally, a monitoring tool for terminal area is presented: the conformance of current flight to pre-identified typical operations is determined in real time. As the number of non-conforming aircraft increases, the complexity seen by air traffic controllers increases, and can become a threat for the airspace safety.

Le trafic aérien en Europe représente environ 30 000 vols quotidiens actuellement. Selon les prévisions de l’organisme Eurocontrol, ce trafic devrait croître de 70% d’ici l’année 2020 pour atteindre 50 000 vols quotidiens. L’espace aérien, découpé en zones géographiques appelées secteurs de contrôle, atteindra bientôt son niveau de saturation vis-à-vis des méthodes actuelles de planification et de contrôle. Afin d’augmenter la quantité de trafic que peut absorber le système, il est nécessaire de diminuer la charge de travail des contrôleurs aériens en les aidant dans leur tâche de séparation des avions. En se fondant sur les demandes de plans de vol des compagnies aériennes, nous proposons une méthode de planification des trajectoires en 4D permettant de présenter au contrôleur un trafic dont la plupart des conflits auront été évités en avance. Cette planification s’établit en deux étapes successives, ayant chacune un unique degré de liberté : une allocation de niveaux de vol permettant la résolution des conflits en croisière puis une allocation d’heures de décollage permettant de résoudre les conflits restants. Nous présentons des modèles pour ces deux problèmes d’optimisation fortement combinatoires, que nous résolvons en utilisant la programmation par contraintes ou les algorithmes évolutionnaires, ainsi que des techniques permettant de prendre en compte des incertitudes sur les heures de décollage ou le suivi de trajectoire. Les simulations conduites sur l’espace aérien français mènent à des situations où tous les conflits sont évités, avec des retards alloués de l’ordre d’une minute en moyenne (80 à 90 minutes pour le vol le plus retardé) et un écart par rapport à l’altitude optimale limité à un niveau de vol pour la quasi totalité des vols. La prise en compte d’incertitudes de manière statique dégrade fortement ces solutions peu robustes, mais nous proposons un modèle dynamique utilisant une fenêtre glissante susceptible de prendre en compte des incertitudes de quelques minutes avec un impact réduit sur le coût de l’allocation. / Air traffic in Europe represents about 30,000 flights each day and forecasts from Eurocontrol predict a growth of 70% by 2020 (50,000 flights per day). The airspace, made up of numerous control sectors, will soon be saturated given the current planification and control methods. In order to make the system able to cope with the predicted traffic growth, the air traffic controllers workload has to be reduced by automated systems that help them handle the aircraft separation task. Based on the traffic demand by airlines, this study proposes a new planning method for 4D trajectories that provides conflict-free traffic to the controller. This planning method consists of two successive steps, each handling a unique flight parameter : a flight level allocation phase followed by a ground holding scheme.We present constraint programming models and an evolutionary algorithm to solve these large scale combinatorial optimization problems, as well as techniques for improving the robustness of the model by handling uncertainties of takeoff times and trajectory prediction. Simulations carried out over the French airspace successfully solved all conflicts, with a mean of one minute allocated delay (80 to 90 minutes for the most delayed flight) and a discrepancy from optimal altitude of one flight level for most of the flights. Handling uncertainties with a static method leads to a dramatic increase in the cost of the previous non-robust solutions. However, we propose a dynamic model to deal with this matter, based on a sliding time horizon, which is likely to be able to cope with a few minutes of uncertainty with reasonable impact on the cost of the solutions.

Cette thèse s'intéresse au problème de conception optimale des routes de départ et d'arrivée dans une zone terminale autour d'un aéroport. Cette conception prend en compte la configuration et l'environnement autour des aéroports, et les différentes contraintes sous-jacentes, notamment l'évitement des obstacles et la séparation des routes. Nous proposons une formulation mathématique conduisant à un problème d'optimisation combinatoire, ainsi que des méthodes de résolution ad hoc efficaces pour le problème. Pour la résolution du problème, nous procédons en deux étapes. Nous considérons d'abord la conception d'une route de longueur minimale évitant les obstacles, en utilisant la méthode de Branch and Bound (B&B). Ensuite, nous nous intéressons à la conception de plusieurs routes en assurant en plus la séparation des routes. Deux approches différentes sont appliquées : une méthode basée sur la méthode B&B pour construire les routes séquentiellement suivant un ordre fixé à l'avance, et une méthode de recuit simulé pour construire les routes simultanément. Les résultats sur un ensemble de problèmes tests (artificiels et réels) montrent l'efficacité de notre approche. / This thesis proposes a methodology for the optimization of departure and arrival routes in the Terminal Maneuvering Area (TMA). The design of these routes takes into account the configuration and environment around airports, and the related constraints, in particular the avoidance of obstacles and the separation between routes. We propose a mathematical formulation leading to a combinatorial optimization problem, as well as efficient ad hoc resolution methods for the problem. The problem is solved in two steps. First, we design an individual route avoiding obstacles with respect to minimum route length by using a Branch and Bound (B&B) method. Afterwards, the design of multiple routes is solved by two different approaches: a B&B-based approach (where routes are generated sequentially in a given order) and a Simulated Annealing approach (where routes are generated simultaneously). The simulation results of a set of (artificial and real) test problems show the efficiency of our approach.

A evolução de sistemas de gerenciamento de tráfego aéreo é pesquisada para suportar o crescimento na demanda por transporte aéreo. Uma alternativa para essa evolução é o aumento no grau de automação. Os sistemas automatizados precisam ser tão seguros quanto os sistemas em operação atualmente. Com o uso de técnicas de especificação e verificação formal é possível avaliar os requisitos de sistemas. Neste trabalho, é proposto um ciclo de especificação formal, que consiste em um conjunto de diretrizes para aplicação de técnicas de métodos formais em requisitos escritos em linguagem natural. O resultado esperado da aplicação deste ciclo é um conjunto de requisitos escritos em linguagem natural verificados formalmente. O ciclo é composto pelas etapas: levantamento de requisitos do sistema e classificação em padrões de especificação; mapeamento dos requisitos para as linguagens de especificação formal LTL (Linear Temporal Logic) e CTL (Computation Tree Logic); verificação formal da especificação com o verificador NuSMV; ajustes na especificação baseada nos resultados da verificação; ajustes nos requisitos baseados nos ajustes na especificação. As diretrizes propostas são definidas com a análise da verificação formal do Automated Airspace Concept (AAC), padrões de especificação e diretrizes para uso do verificador NuSMV. Os resultados esperados são obtidos na aplicação do ciclo de especificação em dois estudos de caso. A principal contribuição do trabalho é o conjunto de diretrizes para elaboração de expressões escritas em linguagem de especificação formal baseadas em requisitos escritos em linguagem natural e que podem ser verificadas formalmente. / Air traffic management systems evolution is being researched to support air transportation demand growth. An evolution alternative is system automation degree increase. Automated systems need to be as safe as current operating systems. It is possible to analyze system requirements with the application of formal specification and formal verification techniques. In this work, a specification cycle is proposed. The specification cycle is a set of guidelines to use formal method techniques on requirements written in natural language. The specification cycle application expected result is a set of formally verified requirements written in natural language. This cycle is comprised of the following stages: system requirements elicitation and specification pattern classification; requirements mapping to LTL (Linear Temporal Logic) and CTL (Computation Tree Logic) formal specification languages; specification formal verification using the NuSMV verifier; formal specification adjustment based on verification results; requirements adjustment based on formal specification adjustment. The proposed guidelines are defined with the Automated Airspace Concept (AAC) formal verification analysis, specification patterns and guidelines for the NuSMV formal verifier use. The expected results are accomplished in the specification cycle application on two study cases. The main contribution of this work is the set of guidelines applied to formulate formally verifiable expressions specified in formal specification languages based on system requirements written in natural language.

Dans le contexte du futur système de gestion du trafic aérien, un des objectifs consiste à réduire l’impact environnemental du trafic aérien. Pour respecter ce but, le concept de “free-route”, introduit dans les années 1990, semble bien adapté aujourd’hui. Les avions ne seraient plus contraints à voler le long de routes aériennes, mais pourraient suivre des trajectoires optimales en terme de consommation. L’objectif de cette thèse est d’introduire une nouvelle méthode de planification du trafic à l’horizon pré-tactique avec des objectifs quelques fois contradictoires, c’est-à-dire avec pour but de minimiser la consommation ou de façon équivalente la durée de trajet en tenant compte des conditions météorologiques et de minimiser l’encombrement de l’espace aérien.La méthode a été mise au point en deux étapes. La première étape a été consacrée au calcul d’une seule trajectoire optimale en terme de temps de vol en tenant compte du vent et de contraintes celles des zones interdites de survol. Cette optimisation est basée sur une adaptation de l’algorithme Ordered Upwind. La deuxième étape introduit un algorithme hybride développé, basé sur un algorithme de recuit simulé et sur l’algorithme déterministe développé dans la première étape, afin de minimiser un compromis entre la congestion et la consommation. L’algorithme combine ainsi la capacité d’atteindre la solution optimale globale via une recherche locale qui permet d’accélérer la convergence.Des simulations numériques avec des prévisions de vent sur du trafic européen donnent des résultats encourageants qui démontrent que la méthode globale est à la fois viable et bénéfique en terme du temps de vol total comme de la congestion globale donc de la diminution des conflits / In the context of the future Air Traffic Management system (ATM), one objective is to reduce the environmental impact of air traffic. With respect to this criterion, the “freeroute” concept, introduced in the mid 1990’s, is well suited to improve over nowadays airspace based ATM. Aircraft will no longer be restricted to fly along airways and may fly along fuel-optimal routes. The objective of this thesis is to introduce a novel pretactical trajectory planning methodology which aims at minimizing airspace congestion while taking into account weather conditions so as to minimize also fuel consumption.The development of the method was divided in two steps. The first step is dedicated to compute a time-optimal route for one aircraft taking into account wind conditions. This optimization is based on an adaptation of the Ordered Upwind Method on the sphere.The second step introduces a hybrid algorithm, based on simulated annealing and on the deterministic algorithm developed in the first step, in order to minimize congestion. Thus the algorithm combines the ability to reach a globally-optimal solution with a local-search procedure that speeds up the convergence.

Flugsicherungsdienstleistungen ermöglichen die effiziente und konfliktfreie Durchführung von Flügen und sind damit ein Grundpfeiler des Luftverkehrssystems. Wachsende Verkehrszahlen sowie steigender Kostendruck erfordern innovative Maßnahmen zur operativen Verbesserung des Luftverkehrsmanagements (Air Traffic Management, ATM). Auch kurzfristige und unvorhersehbare Schwankungen, wie bspw. durch politische Krisen oder Pandemien, stellen die Flugsicherungs-unternehmen (Air Navigation Service Provider, ANSPs) zunehmend vor große Herausforderungen. Infolgedessen wird der Bewertung der Leistungsfähigkeit von ANSPs sowie der Identifikation valider Maßnahmen zur Steigerung der Performance eine hohe Bedeutung zugemessen. Die Dissertation adressiert daher drei wesentliche Forschungsfragen: 1. Wie kann die Leistungsfähigkeit von Flugsicherungsdienstleistern gemessen werden? 2. Welche endogenen und exogenen Faktoren haben einen Einfluss auf die Leistungsfähigkeit der ANSPs? 3. Welche Maßnahmen und Handlungsempfehlungen sind abzuleiten, um die Effizienz der Flugsicherungsdienstleister zu steigern? Gemäß der ersten Forschungsfrage war es zunächst notwendig, eine geeignete Metrik für die Messung der Leistungsfähigkeit zu identifizieren. Die Ergebnisse von Vorabstudien zeigten, dass innerhalb Europas eine hohe Heterogenität hinsichtlich der verwendeten Systeme und Verfahren besteht. Die daraus folgende Komplexität hatte einen Einfluss auf die ökonomische Modellierung eines ANSPs. Je nach Betriebsebene (ANSP, Kontrollzentralen, Sektoren, etc.) waren zudem Anpassungen dieses Modells notwendig. Eine zentrale Aufgabe innerhalb der Dissertation bestand in der Überführung des ökonomischen Modells in eine geeignete Benchmarking-Methode zur Messung der Performance. Die verwendete Methodik hängt maßgeblich vom Analyseziel, der Modellierung, der betrieblichen Ebene und den verfügbaren Daten (z. B. hinsichtlich Quantität und Qualität) ab. Gemäß der ökonomischen Modellierung setzen Effizienzanalysen im Luftverkehrsmanagement eine Methodik voraus, welche multiple Inputs und Outputs berücksichtigen kann. Innerhalb der Dissertation wurde für die Bewertung der Leistungsfähigkeit die Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) fokussiert, wenngleich verschiedene Methoden angewendet und die erzielten Ergebnisse verglichen wurden. Auf Basis einer intensiven Datenanalyse konnte nachgewiesen werden, dass die DEA zu suffizienten Ergebnissen führt. Sonderformen dieser Methodik führen dagegen weder zu erweiterten Erkenntnissen noch zu einer erhöhten Plausibilität. Unter der Nutzung von Paneldaten wurde zudem untersucht, wie sich die Leistungsfähigkeit im Zeitablauf geändert hat. Diese multiperiodischen Betrachtungen ermöglichten die Analyse des Einflusses signifikanter globaler und lokaler Ereignisse auf die Performance innerhalb des europäischen ATMs sowie einzelner ANSPs. Die zweite Forschungsfrage setzte sich mit den grundlegenden Einflussfaktoren auf die Performance auseinander. Dabei waren zwei wesentliche Elemente zu unterscheiden. Zum einen endogene Effekte, die in den operativen Charakteristiken der ANSPs begründet sind. Dies umfasst sowohl die Zusammenwirkung der betrieblichen Ebenen innerhalb eines ANSPs, als auch die ANSP-übergreifende Heterogenität. Zum anderen wurden exogene Faktoren berücksichtigt, welche nicht durch die Flugsicherungsdienstleister beeinflusst werden können. Für die Ursachenanalyse wurde eine Vielzahl (potentieller) Einflussfaktoren untersucht, welche auf Basis von Expertenbefragungen identifiziert wurden. Der Einfluss dieser Faktoren wurde mittels qualitativer und quantitativer Methoden getestet. Bei den quantitativen Analysen fanden mehrere Methoden Anwendung, u. a. basierend auf Querschnittsdaten (OLS-, Tobit- und Trunkated-Regressionen) oder Paneldaten (insbesondere Fixed- und Random-Effects Modelle). Die Koeffizienten und statistischen Signifikanzen unterschieden sich primär aufgrund des Benchmarking-Modells. Innerhalb eines Modells wichen die Koeffizienten zwischen den einzelnen Regressionsansätzen nur in geringem Ausmaß ab, wodurch eine Robustheit nachgewiesen werden konnte. Als ein wesentlicher Einfluss auf die Performance wurde die Struktur des Luftraumes identifiziert. Dabei wurde insbesondere untersucht, ob im europäischen ATM Größenvorteile existieren und welche betrieblichen Vorteile eine dynamische Sektorisierung bietet. Des Weiteren konnte nachgewiesen werden, dass v. a. die Volatilität des Verkehrs einen hohen Einfluss auf die Leistungsfähigkeit hat. Auch die Auswirkungen von Prognosequalität und Systemunterschieden (USA vs. Europa) wurden in der Dissertation adressiert. Basierend auf den Erkenntnissen der ersten beiden Forschungsschwerpunkte wurden Handlungsempfehlungen, sowohl hinsichtlich der methodischen Umsetzung einer Leistungsbewertung, als auch zur Steigerung der Leistungsfähigkeit einzelner Unternehmen abgeleitet. Diese Handlungs-empfehlungen wurden zudem nach betrieblichen und institutionellen Maßnahmen differenziert. Die Empfehlungen umfassen insbesondere eine paneuropäisch standardisierte Erfassung von Daten, die Verbesserung einiger, von EUROCONTROL verwendeter Metriken, die Auswahl geeigneter Ressourcen und Leistungen für das Benchmarking-Modell sowie methodische Präferenzen bei den einzelnen Analyseschritten. Des Weiteren wurde ein Ausblick auf potentielle, zukünftige Forschungsschwerpunkte gegeben, wie bspw. die Schaffung eines Level-of-Service-Konzepts und die Ableitung dafür notwendiger Ressourcen-Puffer. Durch die gewonnenen Erkenntnisse liefert die Dissertation einen wesentlichen Beitrag, das zukünftige Luftverkehrsmanagement effizienter zu gestalten.

Persistent condensation trails are clouds, induced by the exhaust of an aircraft engine in a cold and ice-supersaturated environment. These artificial ice clouds can both cool and heat the atmosphere by scattering solar radiation and absorbing terrestrial radiation, respectively. The influence of condensation trails on the Earth-atmosphere energy balance and therewith the answer to the question of the dominating process had been mostly approximated on a global scale by treating the condensation trail as plane parallel layer with constant optical properties. Individual condensation trails and the influence of the solar angle had been analyzed, always using a course spatial grid and never under consideration of the aircraft performance, generating the condensation trail. For a trajectory optimization, highly precise results of the impact of condensation trails on the radiation budget and the influence of the aircraft performance on this impact is needed, so that future air traffic may consider the main factors of flight performance on the environmental impact of condensation trails. That’s why, a model is developed in this thesis to continuously estimate the scattering and absorption properties and their dependence on the aircraft performance.:1 Introduction 3 1.1 Motivation 3 1.2 State of the art 5 1.3 Approach 6 2 Theoretical background 9 2.1 The Earth’s atmosphere 9 2.1.1 The mean vertical structure of the atmosphere 12 2.1.2 Standard atmospheres 14 2.2 Radiation 15 2.2.1 Nature of radiation 15 2.2.2 Important metrics describing radiation 17 2.2.3 Relevant spectra and principles of radiation 19 2.2.4 Solar radiation 20 2.2.5 Terrestrial radiation 21 2.2.6 Radiative transfer and extinction 22 2.2.7 Radiative transfer equation 30 2.2.8 Energy budget of the Earth-atmosphere system 32 2.3 Thermodynamics 33 2.3.1 Atmospheric stability 33 2.3.2 Turbulence 36 2.3.3 Conditions of contrail formation 41 3 Development of a radiative forcing model 45 3.1 Model atmosphere 45 3.2 Flight performance model 46 3.3 Atmospheric radiative transfer model 49 3.3.1 Two Stream Approximation 51 3.3.2 Discrete ordinate radiative transfer solver 52 3.3.3 Methods to calculate broadband radiances and irradiances 53 3.4 Contrail life cycle model 57 3.4.1 Dissipation regime 58 3.4.2 Diffusion regime 63 3.5 Contrail radiative forcing model 74 3.5.1 Consideration of multiple scattering using a Monte Carlo simulation 74 3.5.2 Geometry of the Monte Carlo simulation 75 3.5.3 Interpretation of Beer’s law 76 3.5.4 Procedure of the Monte Carlo simulation 79 3.5.5 The extinguished power per unit length contrail 87 3.5.6 Scattering and absorption efficiencies Qs, Qa and asymmetry parameters gHG 89 3.5.7 Calibration of the Monte Carlo simulation 94 4 Calculations 99 4.1 Contrail properties 99 4.1.1 Conditions of contrail formation 100 4.1.2 Initial dimensions at the end of the dissipation regime 101 4.1.3 Microphysical properties during the diffusion regime 103 4.2 Radiative transport up to the contrail 105 4.2.1 Solar direct and diffuse radiance 106 4.2.2 Terrestrial irradiance 107 4.3 Scattering and absorption properties of radiation within the contrail 109 4.3.1 Monte Carlo simulation for solar radiation 109 4.3.2 Monte Carlo simulation for terrestrial irradiances 112 4.3.3 Relevance of multiple scattering 116 4.4 Radiative extinction 116 4.4.1 Solar zenith and azimuthal angle 118 4.4.2 Flightpath 120 4.4.3 Contrail evolution 122 4.4.4 Turbulence 126 4.4.5 Wavelength specific extinction 129 4.5 Terrestrial energy forcing of a contrail 133 4.6 Verification 135 5 Conclusion and outlook 141 5.1 Conclusion 141 5.2 Outlook 144 List of Figures 147 List of Tables 151 Abbreviations and Symbols 153 Glossary 161 Bibliography 169 Acknowledgements 183 / Langlebige Kondensstreifen sind Eiswolken, welche durch Kondensation von Wasserdampf an Rußpartikeln in einer eisübersättigten Atmosphäre entstehen. Der Wasserdampf entstammt einerseits aus dem Triebwerkabgas und andererseits aus der Atmosphäre. Kondensstreifen können die Atmosphäre durch Rückstreuung solarer Strahlung kühlen und durch Rückstreuung und Absorption terrestrischer Strahlung erwärmen. Der Einfluss von Kondensstreifen auf den Wärmehaushalt der Atmosphäre und damit die Antwort auf die Frage nach dem dominierenden Effekt wurde bisher zumeist auf globaler Ebene ermittelt, wobei der Kondensstreifen als planparallele Schicht mit konstanten optischen Eigenschaften angenähert wurde. Individuelle Kondensstreifen und der Einfluss des Sonnenstandes wurden bisher nur mithilfe eines groben Rasters betrachtet und niemals unter Berücksichtigung der Flugleistung des Luftfahrzeuges, welches den Kondensstreifen generiert hat. Für eine Trajektorienoptimierung sind jedoch präzise Berechnungen des Strahlungseinflusses und eine gewissenhafte Berücksichtigung der Flugleistung notwendig. Nur so kann der zukünftige Luftverkehr die Haupteinflussfaktoren der Flugeigenschaften auf den Strahlungseinfluss der Kondensstreifen berücksichtigen. Aus diesem Grund wurde in dieser Arbeit ein Modell entwickelt, welches die Eigenschaften des Strahlungstransfers durch den Kondensstreifen kontinuierlich bestimmt und die aus der Flugleistung resultierenden Parameter berücksichtigt.:1 Introduction 3 1.1 Motivation 3 1.2 State of the art 5 1.3 Approach 6 2 Theoretical background 9 2.1 The Earth’s atmosphere 9 2.1.1 The mean vertical structure of the atmosphere 12 2.1.2 Standard atmospheres 14 2.2 Radiation 15 2.2.1 Nature of radiation 15 2.2.2 Important metrics describing radiation 17 2.2.3 Relevant spectra and principles of radiation 19 2.2.4 Solar radiation 20 2.2.5 Terrestrial radiation 21 2.2.6 Radiative transfer and extinction 22 2.2.7 Radiative transfer equation 30 2.2.8 Energy budget of the Earth-atmosphere system 32 2.3 Thermodynamics 33 2.3.1 Atmospheric stability 33 2.3.2 Turbulence 36 2.3.3 Conditions of contrail formation 41 3 Development of a radiative forcing model 45 3.1 Model atmosphere 45 3.2 Flight performance model 46 3.3 Atmospheric radiative transfer model 49 3.3.1 Two Stream Approximation 51 3.3.2 Discrete ordinate radiative transfer solver 52 3.3.3 Methods to calculate broadband radiances and irradiances 53 3.4 Contrail life cycle model 57 3.4.1 Dissipation regime 58 3.4.2 Diffusion regime 63 3.5 Contrail radiative forcing model 74 3.5.1 Consideration of multiple scattering using a Monte Carlo simulation 74 3.5.2 Geometry of the Monte Carlo simulation 75 3.5.3 Interpretation of Beer’s law 76 3.5.4 Procedure of the Monte Carlo simulation 79 3.5.5 The extinguished power per unit length contrail 87 3.5.6 Scattering and absorption efficiencies Qs, Qa and asymmetry parameters gHG 89 3.5.7 Calibration of the Monte Carlo simulation 94 4 Calculations 99 4.1 Contrail properties 99 4.1.1 Conditions of contrail formation 100 4.1.2 Initial dimensions at the end of the dissipation regime 101 4.1.3 Microphysical properties during the diffusion regime 103 4.2 Radiative transport up to the contrail 105 4.2.1 Solar direct and diffuse radiance 106 4.2.2 Terrestrial irradiance 107 4.3 Scattering and absorption properties of radiation within the contrail 109 4.3.1 Monte Carlo simulation for solar radiation 109 4.3.2 Monte Carlo simulation for terrestrial irradiances 112 4.3.3 Relevance of multiple scattering 116 4.4 Radiative extinction 116 4.4.1 Solar zenith and azimuthal angle 118 4.4.2 Flightpath 120 4.4.3 Contrail evolution 122 4.4.4 Turbulence 126 4.4.5 Wavelength specific extinction 129 4.5 Terrestrial energy forcing of a contrail 133 4.6 Verification 135 5 Conclusion and outlook 141 5.1 Conclusion 141 5.2 Outlook 144 List of Figures 147 List of Tables 151 Abbreviations and Symbols 153 Glossary 161 Bibliography 169 Acknowledgements 183

We develop and evaluate two significant modeling concepts within the context of a large-scale Airspace Planning and Collaborative Decision-Making Model (APCDM) and, thereby, enhance its current functionality in support of both strategic and tactical level flight assessments. The first major concept is a new severe weather-modeling paradigm that can be used to assess existing tactical en route flight plan strategies such as the Flight Management System (FMS) as well as to provide rerouting strategies. The second major concept concerns modeling the mediated bartering of slot exchanges involving airline trade offers for arrival/departure slots at an arrival airport that is affected by the Ground Delay Program (GDP), while simultaneously considering issues related to sector workloads, airspace conflicts, as well as overall equity concerns among the airlines. This research effort is part of an $11.5B, 10-year, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)-sponsored program to increase the U.S. National Airspace (NAS) capacity by 30 percent by the year 2010. Our innovative contributions of this research with respect to the severe weather rerouting include (a) the concept of "Probability-Nets" and the development of discretized representations of various weather phenomena that affect aviation operations; (b) the integration of readily accessible severe weather probabilities from existing weather forecast data provided by the National Weather Service (NWS); (c) the generation of flight plans that circumvent severe weather phenomena with specified probability levels, and (d) a probabilistic delay assessment methodology for evaluating planned flight routes that might encounter potentially disruptive weather along its trajectory. Given a fixed set of reporting stations from the CONUS Model Output Statistics (MOS), we begin by constructing weather-specific probability-nets that are dynamic with respect to time and space. Essential to the construction of the probability-nets are the point-by-point forecast probabilities associated with MOS reporting sites throughout the United States. Connections between the MOS reporting sites form the strands within the probability-nets, and are constructed based upon a user-defined adjacency threshold, which is defined as the maximum allowable great circle distance between any such pair of sites. When a flight plan traverses through a probability-net, we extract probability data corresponding to the points where the flight plan and the probability-net strand(s) intersect. The ability to quickly extract this trajectory-related probability data is critical to our weather-based rerouting concepts and the derived expected delay and related cost computations in support of the decision-making process. Next, we consider the superimposition of a flight-trajectory-grid network upon the probability-nets. Using the U.S. Navigational Aids (Navaids) as the network nodes, we develop an approach to generate flight plans that can circumvent severe weather phenomena with specified probability levels based on determining restricted, time-dependent shortest paths between the origin and destination airports. By generating alternative flight plans pertaining to specified threshold strand probabilities, we prescribe a methodology for computing appropriate expected weather delays and related disruption factors for inclusion within the APCDM model. We conclude our severe weather-modeling research by conducting an economic benefit analysis using a k-means clustering mechanism in concert with our delay assessment methodology in order to evaluate delay costs and system disruptions associated with variations in probability-net refinement-based information. As a flight passes through the probability-net(s), we can generate a probability-footprint that acts as a record of the strand intersections and the associated probabilities from origin to destination. A flight plan's probability-footprint will differ for each level of data refinement, from whence we construct route-dependent scenarios and, subsequently, compute expected weather delay costs for each scenario for comparative purposes. Our second major contribution is the development of a novel slot-exchange modeling concept within the APCDM model that incorporates various practical issues pertaining to the Ground Delay Program (GDP), a principal feature in the FAA's adoption of the Collaborative Decision-Making (CDM) paradigm. The key ideas introduced here include innovative model formulations and several new equity concepts that examine the impact of "at-least, at-most" trade offers on the entire mix of resulting flight plans from respective origins to destinations, while focusing on achieving defined measures of "fairness" with respect to the selected slot exchanges. The idea is to permit airlines to barter assigned slots at airports affected by the Ground Delay Program to their mutual advantage, with the FAA acting as a mediator, while being cognizant of the overall effect of the resulting mix of flight plans on air traffic control sector workloads, collision risk and safety, and equity considerations. We start by developing two separate slot-exchange approaches. The first consists of an external approach in which we formulate a model for generating a set of package-deals, where each package-deal represents a potential slot-exchange solution. These package-deals are then embedded within the APCDM model. We further tighten the model representation using maximal clique cover-based cuts that relate to the joint compatibility among the individual package-deals. The second approach significantly improves the overall model efficiency by automatically generating package-deals as required within the APCDM model itself. The model output prescribes a set of equitable flight plans based on admissible trades and exchanges of assigned slots, which are in addition conformant with sector workload capabilities and conflict risk restrictions. The net reduction in passenger-minutes of delay for each airline is the primary metric used to assess and compare model solutions. Appropriate constraints are included in the model to ensure that the generated slot exchanges induce nonnegative values of this realized net reduction for each airline. In keeping with the spirit of the FAA's CDM initiative, we next propose four alternative equity methods that are predicated on different specified performance ratios and related efficiency functions. These four methods respectively address equity with respect to slot-exchange-related measures such as total average delay, net delay savings, proportion of acceptable moves, and suitable value function realizations. For our computational experiments, we constructed several scenarios using real data obtained from the FAA based on the Enhanced Traffic Management System (ETMS) flight information pertaining to the Miami and Jacksonville Air Route Traffic Control Centers (ARTCC). Through our experimentation, we provide insights into the effect of the different proposed modeling concepts and study the sensitivity with respect to certain key parameters. In particular, we compare the alternative proposed equity formulations by evaluating their corresponding slot-exchange solutions with respect to the net reduction in passenger-minutes of delay for each airline. Additionally, we evaluate and compare the computational-effort performance, under both time limits and optimality thresholds, for each equity method in order to assess the efficiency of the model. The four slot-exchange-based equity formulations, in conjunction with the internal slot-exchange mechanisms, demonstrate significant net savings in computational effort ranging from 25% to 86% over the original APCDM model equity formulation. The model has been implemented using Microsoft Visual C++ and evaluated using a C++ interface with CPLEX 9.0. The overall results indicate that the proposed modeling concepts offer viable tools that can be used by the FAA in a timely fashion for both tactical purposes, as well as for exploring various strategic issues such as air traffic control policy evaluations; dynamic airspace resectorization strategies as a function of severe weather probabilities; and flight plan generation in response to various disruption scenarios. / Ph. D.

This diploma thesis is dedicated to the European Commission's project known under the name Single European Sky which pursues an objective to reorganize the current European airspace structure for the more efficient provision of air navigation services purposes. As an introduction, the author sets himself the goal to acquaint the reader with relevant international organizations in the field of civil aviation, introduce him in a general way into the provision of air navigation services' issues, including the situations when these services are being provided across the national boundaries. Following this general reading, the thesis fluently moves on to its main subject matter which is the Single European Sky initiative. An attention is focused on the state of European airspace before the initiative has been launched as well as the preparatory works which resulted in the adoption of the first SES legislative package. The following chapter presents the basic legal framework regulating the Single European Sky as amended by the adoption of the second legislative package. Principal part of the thesis is comprised in the next chapter dealing with the process of project's implementation. Within its framework, the reader's attention is turned, inter alia, to such crucial issues as the national supervisory...

The Multiple Remote Tower Center concept (mRTC) is a cutting edge project which allows one air traffic control officer (ATCO) to be in charge of multiple remotely situated airports simultaneously. When implemented, it will revolutionise how air traffic is managed at smaller airports and allow for increased efficiency and decreased operational costs. Consequently, at the time of writing a lot of effort is going into evaluating this new way of air traffic management from a safety perspective. Air traffic management has been defined as an issue maintaining situational awareness and exercising control. This thesis aims to investigate how the phenomenon target fascination affects the ATCOs ability to exercise control over its controlled airspace and maintain its situation awareness. It does so by creating a baseline scenario of work in a mRTC, and then comparing the ATCOs performance in the baseline scenario with its performance in the same corresponding scenario, but with elements of target fascination introduced. The differences in the scenarios are analysed using the Contextual Control Model, the Extended Control Model and a holistic framework for studying situation awareness. The analysis shows that target fascination does affect the ATCOs ability to maintain control, but not radically so, and only for a short period of time. The target fascination forces the ATCO to rely on information in the immediate environment to a higher degree than during regular work, as opposed to making decisions based on a holistic understanding of the situation and high level goals. However, once the understanding of the situation have been re-established, the level of control quickly returns to normal levels. Situation awareness is thus a key concept in maintaining control. The situation awareness analysis show that target fascination affects situation awareness by causing the ATCOs understanding of the situation to become outdated without the ATCOs knowledge. Because of this, there may be developments in the situation that the ATCO is not aware of, which hinders it from acting as it normally would. In some cases an intervention from an external actor or element may be necessary to break the fascination and re-establish the ATCOs understanding for the situation. As soon as the fascination is broken, the ATCO quickly takes steps to re-establish its situation awareness and return to normal operations.